ZiPS Midseason Movers and Shakers: Hitters

Probably the most frequent questions I obtain about ZiPS is people questioning how the long-term projections for X hitter or Y pitcher have modified in comparison with what they had been preseason. Since we’re proper on the midpoint of the season, it is a good time to overview simply how the primary half of the 2024 season has shifted expectations for particular person gamers. The methodology I’m utilizing is straightforward: evaluating the present 2025-2029 WAR projections versus the 2025-2029 WAR projections as predicted at the beginning of the season. I’ve solely included good prospects and gamers who’re presently related to the majors (or injured) so we don’t get a bunch of random Double-A hitters who’re barely kind of beneath substitute degree than they was once gumming issues up. I’ll deal with place gamers as we speak, with pitchers to observe subsequent week.

Since I’m such a cheerful and upbeat fellow, let’s begin with the gainers. I’m additionally together with every participant’s up to date prime three offensive comps, as a result of comps are enjoyable, even when the person gamers listed don’t actually imply lots to the projection. On the very least, it contextualizes expectations in a non-WAR method:

Keep in mind when it seemed like Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson had been going to be the muse of the Tigers’ offense? The final two years have put a variety of daylight between their respective futures, particularly the primary three months of this season. Greene’s on tempo for a 4.6 WAR season and FanGraphs’ WAR is the imply one in comparison with Baseball Reference, which has him heading towards a seven-win (!) season. Rather a lot hasn’t labored out for the Tigers, however Greene actually has, and increasing him for a really very long time ought to be one of many group’s greatest priorities:

The Orioles knew they had been giving up somebody with a variety of potential in Joey Ortiz, however they actually, actually favored Corbin Burnes (for good cause). I don’t assume they anticipated Ortiz to be this good, or turn out to be so this rapidly, however he’s now one of the seemingly candidates to win NL Rookie of the Yr this 12 months, whereas the man who made him expendable, Jackson Holliday, received’t garner the identical laurel within the AL. In some methods, it is a greater leap than Greene just because it represents extra of a change of standing for Ortiz; ZiPS was uncertain whether or not Ortiz would succeed within the majors, but it surely’s now on the level the place it thinks the Brewers have answered certainly one of their long-term questions on the left facet of the infield:

ZiPS has gone forwards and backwards on Heliot Ramos for a while, with accidents taking part in an enormous function. However he’s hit for surprisingly good energy, with 10 dwelling runs already, and while you add that whole to his eight in Sacramento, he’s already nicely previous his earlier skilled excessive of 14 homers in a season. The pc isn’t utterly offered on Ramos, but it surely’s now pretty snug calling him a viable starter:

Aaron Choose has been on an absurd tear of late, and as loopy because it sounds, him matching his 2022 efficiency is a sensible risk. He’s additionally stayed wholesome this 12 months, not a foul factor while you’re projecting a participant who remains to be seemingly getting into his decline part. The upper you begin, the extra room you need to glide!

Jordan Westburg is certainly one of three Orioles on this listing — not a foul contemplating ZiPS already favored the O’s younger hitters. Westburg was forgotten in some methods, however ZiPS was already projecting him for two.5-3.0 annual WAR coming into the season. Nonetheless, he’s bumped that by a win or so per season. I stay shocked Westburg obtained so little consideration as a prospect relative to his efficiency, provided that he was a primary spherical select of Mississippi State, not a forty third rounder from Jap Tuscaloosa College For Mimes. He could also be simpler to signal to an extension than Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman at this level:

To wrap up the gainers, Colton Cowser hasn’t saved up his scorching April, however ZiPS remains to be way more bullish on him now than it was in March. David Fry’s enchancment has been sufficient to make him legitimately attention-grabbing, and he would possibly already be taking place the Ben Zobrist path. I stated that Dylan Crews would transfer up rapidly if he hit in any respect within the higher minors, which he has, and Elly De La Cruz was certainly one of my breakout picks in March. Jarren Duran’s making a case for his bat being an excellent match for Fenway; I’m hoping he hits 20 triples, which might be superb. I used to be in all probability too dismissive of Daniel Schneeman in my Thursday chat; I didn’t bear in mind offhand that his minor league efficiency translated so nicely this 12 months.

ZiPS already liked Gunnar Henderson, so there was solely to this point he may rise. ZiPS is skeptical he’s going to commonly hit 40 dwelling runs, but it surely now has him as probably the most beneficial five-year participant within the majors. Eguy Rosario has made a convincing case for a big function within the majors, and even while you take the air out of his El Paso numbers, he had a wRC+ of 135 in Triple-A. I simply want the Padres hadn’t diminished Rosario to taking part in nearly completely third base this 12 months within the minors, when using his positional flexibility would give them extra methods to get his bat into the lineup. That is actually the sunniest ZiPS has ever been about JJ Bleday, who has at all times had very weak projections up to now. Rounding out the highest 15 is one other Padre, Jackson Merrill, who’s faring rather well when you think about how younger he’s and the way little expertise he obtained within the excessive minors.

Now let’s take a look at the decliners:

Ronald Acuña Jr. heads this listing for a number of apparent causes. His second season-ending harm with a torn ACL performs an enormous half on this, however the expectations had been already a bit decrease after a actually disappointing begin to the season. A .250/.351/.365 line wasn’t what ZiPS was anticipating in March. He nonetheless tasks to be a famous person when he comes again, however the extra uncertainty is sufficient to take a little bit of shine off the highest:

ZiPS beforehand thought Kyren Paris could be a stopgap starter or a good function participant within the center infield, however he’s completely stopped hitting this 12 months and has been awful at three ranges. The short-term projections are particularly brutal:

Kevin Alcántara was our no. 33 prospect getting into the season and no. 37 within the ZiPS Prime 100, however not solely has his energy potential not been realized in his first full season within the excessive minors, his different stats have eroded as nicely. ZiPS truly likes Owen Caissie almost as a lot as Alcántara nowadays. There’s nonetheless loads of time, however ZiPS sees this as much less of a slam dunk now:

I wrote about Torkelson at the beginning of the month, so I don’t wish to beat up on the poor man an excessive amount of right here, however he’s had a legendarily terrible season for the Tigers. He’s not precisely crushing minor league pitchers, both; till his two homers in opposition to Louisville on Tuesday, he had solely hit one dwelling run in 17 Triple-A video games this 12 months.

Tork might not be raking at Triple-A, but it surely’s nonetheless higher than Jordan Walker’s return to the minors. In 44 video games for Memphis, Walker’s hit .258/.314/.393, a brutally unhealthy line for an offense-first prospect. It’s sufficient that even when he had been defender at third, I’m unsure he’d be an acceptable fill-in for Nolan Arenado, who has been coping with tendinitis:

ZiPS nonetheless thinks Wyatt Langford can be a stable participant, but it surely was extraordinarily bullish on him coming into the season, and it doesn’t appear like he’s going to threaten stardom as rapidly because it appeared like he would within the spring. Nevertheless it’s not all doom and gloom; Langford has had a .779 OPS since coming back from harm, so there are at the very least some causes to be optimistic:

Among the many different decliners, Nolan Jones takes a reasonably large hit, although a few of that’s uncertainty because of the nagging nature of again and knee accidents. Matt McClain’s dropoff is only from harm. Luis Robert Jr. is an attention-grabbing dilemma as a result of the White Sox in all probability ought to commerce him, however his missed time as a consequence of harm this season would possibly make him a sell-low candidate even when the time is true. Noelvi Marte’s dropoff is due extra to missed non-injury taking part in time than any PED adjustment (which ZiPS doesn’t have as a result of I’ve no historic foundation to say that’s a factor), whereas Bryan Ramos sees his numbers drop off as a consequence of a relatively awful minor league season. T.J. White isn’t hitting once more regardless of repeating a degree, and even at a younger age, he could slip off even the marginal prospect radar quickly.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand is nearly actually out for the remainder of the common season with a wrist harm that can require surgical procedure, however even earlier than he was plunked, he was having a horrible begin to the 12 months. ZiPS remains to be assured that his energy will return, however he actually wants it to, as he doesn’t carry that a lot to the desk outdoors of round-trippers, particularly because the group doesn’t seem to see him as a 3rd baseman. Keibert Ruiz confirmed indicators of life within the second-half of 2023 and has struggled this season. However he additionally misplaced 20 kilos and missed important time with a foul case of the flu, so ZiPS may very well be being fully too destructive right here. Ending out the listing is fall darling Evan Carter, whose present again pressure stands out as the spotlight of his 2024 season to this point. Lots of people had been very indignant with me that ZiPS solely projected a .259/.358/.412 line for him coming into the season, however I count on each a kind of people would fortunately take that triple slash now.