Yordan Alvarez and the Alternative Degree Bunch

Yordan Alvarez is among the finest hitters on the planet. From 2021-24, solely Aaron Choose produced the next wRC+ than Alvarez’s 165, and solely 5 gamers surpassed his complete of 136 dwelling runs. Throughout that point, the slugger helped the Astros to 2 pennants and a championship, furthering his legend with some dramatic postseason homers as nicely. But up to now in 2025, Alvarez has struggled mightily. In truth, he closed April with a WAR under zero (-0.1) after posting 5.3 WAR final season.

By way of 28 video games, Alvarez is hitting .219/.316/.354, nicely shy of final yr’s usually stellar .308/.392/.567. In truth, his 81-point drop in wRC+ is the fourth largest amongst gamers who took 300 plate appearances final yr and have made a minimum of 80 this season:

So what’s occurring with Alvarez? He’s truly hitting the ball more durable than he did final yr or the yr earlier than, a minimum of if we’re measuring solely by common exit velocity — which isn’t an effective way to go:

Alvarez’s uncooked exit velocity has elevated, however extra considerably, his barrel price has dropped from the 92nd percentile to the 73rd, and his hard-hit price from the 93rd to the sixty fifth. Whereas it’s early, we are able to put some inventory in these numbers, as exit velocity stabilizes after about 40 batted ball occasions, barrel price at 50 BBE, and hard-hit price at 80 BBE.

Digging by way of Alvarez’s Statcast web page, one factor that notably stands out is that whereas his common launch angle and groundball and fly ball charges have hardly budged from final yr, he’s gotten beneath 37% of his batted balls, hitting them at launch angles too excessive to be productive. That price is tenth amongst all qualifiers, and it’s about 12 proportion factors above each his profession mark and the key league common.

Cherry-picking a number of different Statcast particulars, whereas Alvarez has slugged .800 on middle-middle pitches, up from .679 final yr, he’s swung at solely 50% of them, down from 79% final yr. The place he hit .314 and slugged .541 towards four-seamers in 2024, he’s all the way down to a .152 common and a .273 slugging proportion this yr. His swing and chase charges are according to final yr’s charges (which had been a bit above his profession norms), however his decision-marking seems to have taken a success. Per Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which measures the standard of a hitter’s swing choices, he’s dropped from the ninety fifth percentile in 2023 and the 91st percentile final yr to the forty third percentile this yr.

Alvarez isn’t one to take consolation within the Statcast metrics that counsel he’s typically heading in the right direction. By way of the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara:

When a reporter famous he’s hitting the ball onerous, Alvarez replied: “Outs.” He was requested if his swing feels good mechanically.

“I might inform you that it’s good, but when the outcomes aren’t there, then it’s not good,” Alvarez stated. “We’re simply making an attempt to determine it out proper now.”

Elsewhere within the story, Alvarez dismissed supervisor Joe Espada’s opinion that he’s near breaking out, saying, “Till the numbers go up, there’s nothing shut.”

Alvarez is hardly the one participant who’s mired under alternative stage to date. Among the many 165 batting title qualifiers, 38 (23%) are at or under 0.0 WAR, and on the 80-PA threshold, the share rises to 26%. What follows here’s a check-in on 5 others who’re in an analogous boat, 4 of whom are highlighted within the wRC+ desk above. They’re good-to-great gamers off to dangerous begins; three of them joined Alvarez ultimately yr’s All-Star Sport, and three signed notable free agent contracts this previous offseason, certainly one of them for a nine-figure quantity. For this, I restricted my choice to gamers who produced a minimum of 3.0 WAR in 300 plate appearances final yr and have reached that 80-PA threshold; whereas I used to be fairly strict when it got here to specializing in WAR marks under zero, I made one notable exception. Nonetheless, there are way more such gamers than I can cram right into a single piece. I’ve listed those right here in alphabetical order.

Willy Adames, Giants (71 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)

Adames had a profession yr at simply the precise time. In 2024, he set private bests in homers (32), steals (21), and WAR (4.8) whereas practically doing so in wRC+ (119) as nicely. Not solely did his .251/.331/.462 slashline signify a big step up from a subpar 2023 (.217/.310/.407, 94 wRC+), however he hit free company at simply the precise time to pocket a seven-year, $182 million contract from the Giants.

Up to now, Adames’ transfer westward has not labored out nicely; his efficiency has been a internet unfavourable on a crew that’s jumped out to a 19-12 begin. He’s hit simply .208/.292/.301, with a barrel price that’s dropped from 12% to eight.9%. Whereas his 88.6-mph common exit velo is on par with final yr and his 43.3% hard-hit price is a pair factors higher, his xSLG has dropped from .461 to .388 — nonetheless nicely forward of his precise efficiency. Previous to becoming a member of the Giants, he had a large reverse platoon break up over the course of his profession, with a 117 wRC+ towards righties and a 91 towards lefties; this yr, he’s in some way hit .103/.163/.103 (-21 wRC+) in 43 PA towards lefties, in comparison with .259/.351/.395 (113 wRC+) towards righties.

Adames’ troubles prolong to the sphere. The underside already fell out of his protection final yr, a minimum of primarily based on his drop from 12 FRV and eight DRS in 2023 to 0 FRV and -16 DRS in ’24. This yr, in only a month’s time, he’s already at -4 FRV and -7 DRS. I wouldn’t put a lot inventory in such a small pattern if it weren’t preceded by these regarding 2024 metrics, however I do wonder if it’s merely been a matter of determining finest match alongside third baseman Matt Chapman, a five-time Gold Glove winner.

Alec Bohm, Phillies (45 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)

Although he’s by no means hit in addition to he did throughout his 2020 rookie season (which was simply 44 video games lengthy), Bohm has developed right into a stable participant for the Phillies, bettering his protection from dreadful to common whereas offering above-average offensive manufacturing. Final yr, he made his first All-Star crew whereas setting profession highs in WAR (3.5) and wRC+ (115), batting .280/.332/.448 with 15 homers.

Bohm’s off to a .221/.252/.274 begin. Usually a really aggressive hitter with distinctive contact abilities, he’s reduce his swinging strike price from 7.6% to six%, however he’s placing out extra usually (17.6%, up from 14.2%) whereas strolling simply 2.6% of the time, about 4 factors under his norm. His SEAGER has dropped from the 72nd percentile to the twenty ninth, that means that when he’s swinging, he’s not doing so on pitches the place he can do essentially the most harm.

These choices have translated right into a failure to launch. Bohm’s groundball price has elevated from 46% to 50.5%, along with his fly ball price dropping by an analogous quantity; his common launch angle has decreased from 9.8 levels to five.4. So although his 91.3 mph common exit velo, 8.6% barrel price, and 49.5% hard-hit price all signify enhancements from final season, he’s collected simply 5 extra-base hits and has but to homer. That stated, he’s additionally been a minimum of considerably unfortunate, as he’s 124 factors in need of his .398 xSLG.

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (91 wRC+, 0.1 WAR)

Technically, Henderson isn’t under alternative stage, but it surely’s solely been the previous few days the place he’s gotten his head above water. I selected to incorporate him right here as a result of he had by far the very best 2024 WAR (8.0, fourth within the majors) of any participant even within the neighborhood of zero WAR. He’s hitting .228/.268/.413, which is a large enough step down from final yr’s .281/.364/.529 (155 wRC+) that he cracked the desk above, however issues might be even worse; per week in the past, he was batting .203/.247/.377 (73 wRC+) earlier than reeling off a six-game hitting streak, with three of his seven hits going for additional bases. Look out, Joe DiMaggio.

It’s price remembering that Henderson missed practically all the Grapefruit League season on account of an intercostal pressure that he suffered on February 27. He started the common season on the injured record and didn’t make his debut till April 4, the Orioles’ eighth recreation. Since being activated, he’s truly been scorching the ball — when he’s made contact. Whereas he barreled only one ball out of the 26 he put into play throughout his first 10 video games, he averaged 99.3 mph on these BBEs, with a 69.2% hard-hit price; sadly, he additionally struck out in 37.2% of his 43 plate appearances throughout that span, suggesting he was a bit rusty. Presently, he’s as much as a 95.7 mph common exit velo, which locations him within the 99th percentile; his 56.9% hard-hit price is within the ninety fifth percentile, however his 9.2% barrel price is in simply the 53rd, down from the 76th percentile final yr. Principally, he’s hitting too many grounders (50.8%, up 4 factors from final yr) and placing out too usually (27.8%, up 5.7 factors from final yr) whereas strolling simply 5.2% of the time, a bit under half of final yr’s price. That stated, he’s trending upwards in most of these areas; if there’s one participant inside this group I consider has already turned the nook, it’s him.

Joc Pederson, Rangers (12 wRC+, -0.8 WAR)

Pederson put in a potent season as a platoon DH for the Diamondbacks, hitting .275/.393/.515 with 23 homers, and setting profession bests in OBP and wRC+ (151) whereas handing over 3.0 WAR. The Rangers signed him to a two-year, $37 million deal, hoping he might present comparable manufacturing, however he’s achieved simply the other. After gathering his first hit as a Ranger within the crew’s second recreation, he endured an epic 0-for-41 drought, offset by simply three walks. He went three weeks between hits, lastly ending the slide with a pinch-hit double off the A’s Mason Miller on April 23. On Sunday, he lastly loved his first multi-hit recreation of the season. Total, he’s batting .108/.205/.176 by way of 84 plate appearances; amongst gamers with a minimum of 80 PA, solely Massey (11 wRC+) and Candelario (10 wRC+) have been worse.

Even throughout his streak, Pederson averaged 91.5 mph on his batted ball occasions, however he struck out 31% of the time, and 57.7% of these batted balls had been grounders. Total, his 51.9% groundball price is over 11 factors above his profession norm, whereas his 5.5% barrel price is about half his regular price, and his 16.7% pulled air price about 4 factors under his profession mark and 10 factors under final yr. He’s chasing lower than regular (23.3%), however his SEAGER has dropped from the 83rd percentile to the forty ninth. He has proven indicators of life currently, with 5 hits in his final 16 at-bats, three of them for additional bases (together with the double off of Miller), however that slash line is gonna look fairly grim for some time.

Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (66 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)

Like Adames, Santander picked a fantastic time for a profession yr, as he set full-season bests in homers (44), WAR (3.3) and wRC+ (129), whereas hitting .235/.308/.506 for the Orioles and making his first All-Star crew earlier than changing into a free agent. He parlayed his efficiency right into a five-year, $92.5 million cope with the Blue Jays, but it surely doesn’t seem that his offense made the transfer north. Even with a giant three-run homer towards the Pink Sox on Wednesday evening — simply his fourth of the season — Santander is hitting simply .175/.258/.316.

Like Bohm, Santander is having some hassle attaining liftoff. His groundball price has spiked from 30.8% to 38.1%, and his common launch angle has fallen from 22.7 levels to fifteen.2. His barrel price has plummeted from 11.7% to six%, and his xSLG has fallen from .445 to .327.

Santander has a status as a sluggish starter throughout his nine-year profession, as he’s hit for simply an 82 wRC+ in March and April, in comparison with a 111 wRC+ in the remainder of the season. What notably stands out as I dig by way of his numbers is a disconcerting pattern in the case of four-seamers. In 2023, he hit .263 and slugged .556 towards them, however final yr he dipped to a .196 AVG and .431 SLG, and this yr to a .128 AVG and .231 SLG; his whiff price on these pitches has elevated from 21.5% to 34.1%. In the meantime, he’s a mixed 3-for-31 towards changeups and sliders; he dealt with the previous fairly nicely final yr however not the latter.

Once more, there’s no scarcity of different gamers I might have included inside this ugly tour by way of Small Pattern Theater, together with among the different gamers within the wRC+ desk above akin to Diaz and Ortiz, each of whom a minimum of play key defensive positions. The Rangers’ Marcus Semien, whom I checked in on final week, has hits in his final 5 video games and has raised his wRC+ from 17 to 47 (.182/.258/.245) thanks largely to the A’s pitching employees. For a lot of of those gamers, it could be only a matter of fattening up their slashlines towards among the league’s weaker pitching staffs.