The Mets head to London for a World Tour sequence towards the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York owns a 27-35 document that has them above simply the Rockies and Marlins within the Nationwide League. They’re remarkably solely 3.5 video games out of the Wild Card race, a testomony to the NL’s mediocrity past its high 4 groups. There are six golf equipment between the Mets and the present last playoff crew, the Padres.
If the Mets don’t make important enhancements within the subsequent six-plus weeks, they’ll head into deadline season as a vendor. Impending free brokers are at all times essentially the most obvious commerce candidates. The Mets haven’t any scarcity of leases they’ll market. Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5MM participant choice for subsequent season), J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Jake Diekman may all transfer. But there’s no extra fascinating Mets’ commerce candidate than their first baseman.
Pete Alonso is just a few months from his first journey to the open market. He reportedly declined a $158MM extension provide final summer time. President of baseball operations David Stearns made clear all through the offseason that whereas the Mets had no real interest in buying and selling Alonso over the winter, they didn’t anticipate reopening extension negotiations earlier than he hit free company.
That ought to spur loads of commerce hypothesis because the deadline approaches. That’s evidently already occurring in entrance places of work exterior of Queens. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this week that a number of rival normal managers count on the Mets to commerce Alonso earlier than the deadline. That appears extra like knowledgeable hypothesis than a suggestion that his title has come up in commerce talks so far.
Will talks achieve reliable traction within the coming weeks? There’s a simple argument for the Mets to maneuver Alonso. They evidently don’t plan on holding him from testing the free agent market. Alonso will start his subsequent contract in his age-30 season. When Stearns was working baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers most popular to not make investments closely in defensively-limited sluggers. He clearly has much more assets at his disposal now, however it’s truthful to wonder if Alonso is the kind of participant round whom Stearns needs to construct.
That’s significantly true with a slight downturn in Alonso’s batted ball metrics. He’s nonetheless able to hitting the ball as laborious anybody, however he has carried out so much less incessantly over the previous couple seasons. The Polar Bear’s charge of laborious contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) peaked at 47.3% again in 2021. It dropped by just a few factors in every of the subsequent two seasons. This yr’s 40.1% laborious contact charge is a match for final season’s. It locations Alonso 129th out of 263 certified hitters.
The dip in laborious contact charge hasn’t made Alonso a foul hitter, in fact. He’s hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers throughout 267 plate appearances. After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Discipline and a depressed league run setting, that’s 27 proportion factors higher than common. Alonso stays a middle-of-the-order bat, however it’s a barely regarding development for a participant whose sport is constructed on energy.
If the entrance workplace has issues about Alonso’s long-term projection, a commerce can be essentially the most smart determination. The Mets would get little or no in return in the event that they let him stroll in free company. They’d make him a qualifying provide, however they’d solely obtain a choose after the fourth spherical if he indicators elsewhere. As a luxurious tax payor, they’re entitled to the bottom compensation for shedding a certified free agent. The commerce presents they obtain this summer time would definitely be higher than that, even when Alonso’s restricted management window and $20.5MM arbitration wage make it unlikely they’d get any top-tier prospects in return.
For the Mets to maintain Alonso, they’d have to imagine there’s a sensible path to the postseason in 2024 and/or be ok with their possibilities of retaining him in free company. Making the playoffs this yr isn’t not possible, however they’ve put themselves in a gap with their poor begin. Holding Alonso would in all probability be extra in regards to the latter situation — an indication they’re assured that he’ll keep in New York after seeing what different groups will provide.
Proprietor Steve Cohen is able to outbidding anybody. He’s presumably eager on retaining Alonso, who has confirmed himself in New York and has been a fan favourite since his electrifying rookie season. But the Mets have been comparatively restrained within the final two offseasons after their frenzied effort to spend their manner into rivalry in 2021 didn’t fairly pan out. (The Mets did win 101 video games in 2022, however they adopted up a first-round playoff exit with final yr’s 75 wins.) The Mets appear to be gearing up for a bidding warfare with the Yankees and others on Juan Soto, which may take a number of the precedence away from Alonso.
It’s at the very least value contemplating the chance that the Mets commerce Alonso earlier than attempting to carry him again subsequent winter. That’s not unparalleled however doesn’t occur typically, significantly with gamers on the high of the market. A deadline commerce usually displays an understanding that the crew and participant aren’t going to line up on contract figures.
How will the Mets deal with the state of affairs? Is Alonso going to be on the transfer this summer time?
Picture courtesy of USA Right this moment Sports activities.