Eventually yr’s commerce deadline, the Marlins and Padres made a commerce that largely flew underneath the radar on the time however is now proving to be pretty important. The Fish despatched Garrett Cooper and minor league pitcher Sean Reynolds to the Friars for left-hander Ryan Weathers.
Trades of star gamers like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer stole the headlines on the time, whereas different notable gamers like Paul Sewald, Jeimer Candelario and Mark Canha additionally modified groups. Even inside Miami, the acquisitions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell garnered way more consideration than the Weathers deal, and that was pretty comprehensible again then. Burger and Bell instantly joined the large league membership and helped them attain the playoffs, their first full-season postseason look in 20 years.
Cooper has been a good hitter at instances however has additionally been continuously damage and was an impending free agent on the time. Reynolds was a 25-year-old who had solely lately transformed to pitching after spending his earlier skilled seasons as a primary baseman and outfielder.
Weathers had been a giant title a couple of years prior. The previous No. 7 total choose was ranked by Baseball America because the No. 84 prospect within the league going into 2021, however Weathers hadn’t been impressing previous to the deal. He had thrown 143 large league innings for the Padres earlier than turning into a Marlin, permitting 5.73 earned runs per 9 frames.
Even within the minors, Weathers wasn’t precisely mowing opponents down. He had a 6.73 ERA in 123 innings for Triple-A El Paso in 2022. That membership performs within the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, however Weathers had subpar strikeout and stroll charges of 15.6% and 10.1%. With El Paso in 2023, he lowered his ERA to 4.20 and struck out 29.2% of batters confronted however was nonetheless giving out walks at an unsightly 13.5% price. The Padres referred to as him up for 44 2/3 innings within the majors final yr, however he had a 6.25 ERA in that point, placing out simply 14.8% of opponents. The truth that the Padres had been keen to let him go for a fairly restricted package deal means that they thought of his inventory method down relative to when he was a top-10 choose and top-100 prospect.
Weathers was largely an afterthought coming into this yr. Even with Sandy Alcántara present process Tommy John surgical procedure final yr, Miami’s rotation combine projected to incorporate Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer and Trevor Rogers. Reliever A.J. Puk was going to be stretched out, giving the membership one other potential starter. Since Weathers nonetheless has an possibility yr left, it appeared like he must begin 2024 within the minors and earn his method into a giant league job.
That’s not the way in which issues have performed out to this point. Garrett, Cabrera and Pérez all began the season on the injured checklist as a result of accidents, with Pérez finally requiring Tommy John surgical procedure. Luzardo and Puk finally hit the IL throughout the season, with the latter moved again to a aid position when the beginning experiment failed. Meyer made three good begins however was optioned to the minors so the membership may monitor his workload as he ramps again up from 2022 Tommy John surgical procedure.
Amid all of that, Weathers has been the membership’s greatest and most constant starter this yr. He has taken the ball 12 instances and logged 68 2/3 innings, whereas nobody else has topped 57. On prime of the amount, Weathers has additionally offered high quality with a 3.41 ERA. His 22.1% strikeout price is near common, however his 6.9% stroll price is robust and his 51.5% floor ball price is superb.
Supervisor Skip Schumaker lately appeared on MLB Community Radio and mentioned the breakout from Weathers (X hyperlink, with audio). The skipper talked about how he had seen Weathers up shut earlier in his profession, as Schumaker was employed by the Padres via the 2021 season. Schumaker spoke about how Weathers managed to rise to the majors rapidly as a result of his fastball however that hitters began to regulate. That prompted Weathers to spend the latest offseason working to enhance the opposite pitches in his arsenal, which appears to be paying off to this point this yr.
“He purchased a TrackMan and various things and created sort of his personal pitching lab again residence,” Schumaker stated, “and discovered the way to spin the ball higher and actually manipulate the changeup right into a method the place he can throw it for strikes and to throw it strike-to-ball when he wanted as properly to get swing-and-miss.”
Weathers threw his four-seam fastball greater than 50% of the time in every of his first three large league seasons, in keeping with Statcast, however that quantity is down 40.2% in 2024. He’s going to the changeup 26.1% of the time but in addition throwing a sweeper at a 20.4% price, a sinker at a 12.2% clip and a smattering of sliders as properly. Opponents are hitting .174 towards the changeup with a .349 slugging share, whereas these numbers are simply .132 and .211 towards the sweeper. The changeup has a 40.1% whiff price and 36.8% onerous hit price, with the sweeper getting whiffs on 55.2% of swings and hit onerous (95 mph or larger) simply 11.8% of the time hitters make contact.
That is nonetheless a small pattern measurement of simply 12 begins, however Weathers was beforehand a touted prospect and has made a concerted effort to evolve. Since he charged so rapidly to the majors, his struggles occurred at an age when many pitchers are nonetheless in faculty or climbing the minor league ladder. He’s nonetheless solely 24 years previous regardless of this technically being his fourth season within the majors.
Maybe the Marlins have discovered a strong piece for his or her rotation from that small commerce final yr, which might be important for them. Weathers got here into this season with one yr and 66 days of main league service time. Which means he gained’t qualify for arbitration till after 2025 and might be managed via 2028.
Although they as soon as gave the impression to be overloaded with beginning pitching choices, the group has been thinned out lately. They traded Pablo López and Jake Eder lately. Alcantara and Pere had Tommy John surgical procedure this yr. Properly-regarded prospect Dax Fulton had a UCL restore (not a full Tommy John surgical procedure) final summer season and has but to pitch this season. Sixto Sanchez has been constantly hobbled by shoulder accidents. And, Miami’s poor efficiency this yr may result in additional promoting, with Luzardo and Rogers speculative potentialities.
Even when these arms do find yourself being traded — Luzardo, specifically, appears seemingly — it’s potential to think about the Marlins having a robust rotation consisting of Weathers, Alcántara, Pérez, Meyer, Cabrera and Garrett by late 2025, with all of these names controllable via not less than 2027. Trades of Luzardo and others on the roster may herald additional rotation candidates as properly. Plans not often go that easily, as accidents and adjustments in efficiency will undoubtedly happen, however the continued evolution of Weathers is a big vibrant spot throughout a season that’s in any other case been bleak in Miami.