How possible do you suppose the Reds are to make the playoffs? I’m not asking you to guess what our Playoff Odds say about them. I’ll inform you that within the subsequent paragraph. I’m asking you to place your personal quantity on it, based mostly on what and take into consideration each the Reds and the playoff image. They’re 59-54 with 49 video games to play. They’re three video games again of the Padres for the ultimate Wild Card spot and 4 behind the Mets for the second spot. Received a quantity in your head? Then we’re prepared for one more paragraph.
Thanks for taking part in. As of this writing, our Playoff Odds give the Reds a 12.4% probability of reaching the postseason. I think about that feels a bit mild to not less than some individuals. Baseball Reference provides the Reds a 36.3% probability of constructing the playoffs. They’re inside 4 video games of each the Mets and the Padres. They’re additionally inside 5 video games of the Phillies, the first-place workforce within the NL East. If the Reds maintain taking part in like they’re taking part in and any a type of groups has a late-season swoon, they’re in. In line with Pythagorean Win-Loss expectancy, they need to have the identical document because the Mets proper now and a greater document than the Padres. They simply added on the deadline. Hunter Greene seems like he’ll be again quickly, and Elly De La Cruz certain seems just like the type of participant who can put a workforce on his again for a pair weeks and carry it over the end line.
Then once more, I’m certain that quantity feels excessive to some individuals. You may perceive why the numbers don’t just like the Reds. Baseball Reference provides them such a excessive probability as a result of it ignores roster composition, and, properly, the Reds have a weaker roster than the groups forward of them. They rank twenty second in place participant WAR, they usually didn’t add as a lot on the deadline because the Phillies, Mets, or Padres. Actually, in response to ZiPS, they really turned 3.2% much less more likely to make the playoffs when the deadline mud settled, due to doubts about Ke’Bryan Hayes and presumably as a result of the opposite groups added a lot extra. They’ve had the fifth-easiest schedule in baseball so far within the season, they usually’ve received the hardest schedule in baseball from right here on out. They’ve overperformed their xwOBA by six factors, the second-highest such hole in baseball. Not solely do our projections have the Reds lacking the playoffs, they’ve them ending at 82-80, one sport above .500 for the season and 7 video games behind the Padres within the standings.
This text isn’t meant to be a referendum on the Reds. I’ve been specializing in them so far as a result of they’re the one workforce within the Nationwide League whose Playoff Odds are between 10% and 85%. Let me say that one other means. With a 12.4% probability of constructing the playoffs, they’re one way or the other the closest workforce within the Nationwide League to 50%. Right here’s what that appears like in a desk (particularly, the skinniest desk you’ll ever see right here at FanGraphs). Under is your complete Nationwide League, leaving out all groups with odds above 97% or underneath 3%, since they appear like kind of certain issues. That is your complete playoff image.
NL Odds
| Group | % |
|---|---|
| Mets | 91.9% |
| Padres | 87.8% |
| Reds | 12.4% |
| Giants | 6.6% |
| Cardinals | 5.7% |
That doesn’t depart a number of groups, and even this group of 5 splits into two very apparent classes. It’s a battle over two spots, and the second-place workforce has an fringe of about 75 proportion factors on the membership in third. We’ve received the Mets and Padres in line to get the ultimate two Wild Card spots, after which we’ve received everyone else. The Giants and Cardinals simply bought on the deadline. Even they’re not giving themselves an opportunity. The Reds and Padres are the one groups between 90% and 10%. If the Reds make the playoffs, it is going to be a giant shock, not less than in response to the robots who see the longer term.
Issues are extra equitable within the American League, nevertheless it’s nonetheless awfully stratified. The Crimson Sox are presently 2 1/2 video games forward of the Yankees within the Wild Card standings, however Boston has the third-best Playoff Odds (78.8%) of the groups not in first place, behind New York (85.1%) and Seattle (80.0%). The projections see the Rangers because the workforce more likely to find yourself simply out of the image. The drop-off between the Crimson Sox and the Rangers is 40.6 proportion factors, from 78.8% to 38.2%. Boston’s odds are greater than twice as excessive!
This isn’t regular. On this date final yr, six totally different groups had Playoff Odds between 40% and 60%. Two groups met that standards on this date in 2023 and three groups in 2022. This yr, the fourth season of this new prolonged Wild Card format, it’s zero. Our Playoff Odds return to 2014, and even within the previous Wild Card format, we by no means received so far within the calendar with no groups between 40% and 60%. Actually, there have been not less than two groups in that scenario in each season besides 2019. That is shaping as much as be the least aggressive playoff race in latest reminiscence. In concept, this new playoff format ought to make the postseason extra accessible for extra groups. The bar for entry shouldn’t be a lot above .500, and plenty of groups normally hang around proper round .500. Perhaps this yr is an outlier, or perhaps it’s what we should always come to count on going ahead, with the league cut up up so neatly into tremendous groups and tremendous tankers, consumers and sellers. In the event you promote on the deadline, you may inform your followers you’re constructing for the longer term. In the event you simply miss the playoffs, you simply failed, and you could not get all of the credit score you deserve for attempting.
Earlier than I depart you, I ought to give the apparent reminder that these are simply projections. They’re good, however they’re not good. A lot of unexpected issues will occur. The Rangers look able to making a run. The Reds have a one-in-8.1 probability of constructing the playoffs, and extra unbelievable issues occur on a regular basis. The Tigers had a 0.2% probability of constructing the playoffs on this date final yr, and you may nonetheless purchase T-shirts commemorating what occurred subsequent. Even when nothing adjustments, there’ll nonetheless be battles. The Mets and the Phillies may duke it out till the final sport of the season within the NL East. The AL East has three groups with an actual shot. The Brewers and Cubs may make it shut within the NL Central, and the Astros and Mariners may do the identical within the AL West. A few of these races will have an effect on who will get a bye and who doesn’t. It is going to be thrilling. However none of that signifies that the projections don’t present us with significant data. So far as who’s making the playoffs and who isn’t, it’s been not less than 11 years since we’ve seen so little suspense at this level within the calendar.
