The place Do We Draw the Line Drive?

I nonetheless bear in mind the primary time I questioned, What if the colours I see aren’t the identical ones that different individuals see? What if the colour I understand as purple seems to be the identical as what you understand as yellow? I used to be 10 years previous, and I felt like a budding scientist or thinker, or maybe a poet. Whichever one, I used to be already making ready my Nobel Prize acceptance speech.

I’ve since come to appreciate that my 10-year-old mind wasn’t asking something that each stoned faculty freshman hadn’t requested earlier than. I sounded much less like a Nobel Laureate and extra like John Kruk taking his function because the Phillies’ colour commentator a bit too actually. That stated, the concept that completely different human beings understand colours in numerous methods isn’t simply pot-fueled postulation or Krukian knowledge – it’s the reality. It might have blown my 10-year-old thoughts to study the colours I see aren’t essentially the colours everybody else sees, and it’s not nearly rods, cones, and intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells. Generally, it’s a matter of language.

Check out the 4 swatches under. Take into consideration what colours they’re. And no, the solutions aren’t Steven Kwan’s whiff charge, arm energy, bat pace, and dash pace:

When it comes to lightness and saturation, the distinction between swatches A and B is roughly the identical because the distinction between swatches C and D. But, if I confirmed you the swatches one after the other and requested you to call every colour, you’d most likely give completely different solutions for A and B (purple and pink, respectively) and the identical reply for C and D: blue. It might be the identical if C and D have been two completely different tones of orange, yellow, inexperienced, or purple. English audio system consider “purple” and “pink” as distinct colour classes in a extra vital method than we do for shades of another hue.

That’s not the case for all languages. In Russian, for example, the phrases “синий” (romanized as “siniy”) and “голубой” (romanized as “goluboy”) confer with darker and lighter blue. What is especially fascinating about that is that having two completely different phrases for darker and lighter blue has been proven to assist Russian audio system distinguish between the 2 shades extra shortly and precisely than English audio system. So, some cognitive psychologists theorize that the languages we communicate don’t simply describe the fabric world. They affect the best way we understand it.

(A quick apart: When the Royals drafted Victor Cole, the newest Russian-born participant to seem within the main leagues, I’m wondering in the event that they knew that nobody else was higher suited to differentiate between the darkish and light-weight blues of their uniforms?)

As a monolingual English speaker, I can barely comprehend how somebody may see completely different shades of blue as separate colours – regardless that I do the identical with purple and pink. It feels as unusual as calling sizzling pizza and chilly pizza two completely different meals or left socks and proper socks two completely different objects of clothes. But, somebody from Russia is likely to be equally confused that I can’t simply distinguish between siniy and goluboy. It’s not about any intrinsic property of the colours. It’s all about language. Certainly, researchers have discovered comparable results in numerous areas past colour, together with the notion of the whole lot from objects and portions to time and area. What about line drives?

Batted balls are historically sorted into three major buckets based mostly on their vertical path and one other three based mostly on their horizontal path. Proper now, I’m within the vertical buckets: groundballs, fly balls, and line drives. Sports activities Data Options retains observe of batted ball information, which we home right here at FanGraphs, so yow will discover these numbers alongside conventional stats like singles, doubles, triples, and residential runs. With just a few fast clicks, I can let you know Jose Altuve is the energetic chief in groundballs, identical to he’s the energetic chief in singles, and Freddie Freeman is the energetic chief in line drives, identical to he’s the energetic chief in extra-base hits. I used to be extra shocked to study Nolan Arenado is the energetic chief in fly balls, and I feel that’s partially due to how usually he pops out. Once I take away infield fly balls from the information, Andrew McCutchen jumps to the highest of the leaderboard. Therein lies the difficulty on the coronary heart of this piece: There aren’t any cut-and-dried guidelines for sorting batted balls. For those who checked out Baseball Savant as a substitute of our leaderboards, you wouldn’t discover Arenado or McCutchen sitting atop the fly ball rankings. Moderately, you’d see Carlos Santana (when you included popups) and Freeman (when you didn’t).

Not like singles, doubles, triples, and residential runs, the various kinds of batted balls aren’t discrete classes. As with colours, they exist on a spectrum. Contemplate the swatches under. I took the colours straight from three crew logos on MLB.com:

The Orioles’ and Astros’ logos are each orange. Whether or not you’d name the Athletics’ emblem yellow or gold, what issues is that it’s in a special colour class than the opposite two – regardless that the distinction between Astros orange and A’s yellow actually isn’t that a lot higher than the distinction between Orioles orange and Astros orange. All three colours exist someplace alongside the spectrum from purple to orange to yellow, however two of them are “identical” and one is “completely different.”

Now, think about the three batted balls within the clips under:

Every got here off Trea Turner’s bat on the identical pace (98 mph), and the distinction in launch angle between the primary hit and the second hit is identical because the distinction in launch angle between the second and the third. Nonetheless, the primary two have been groundballs, in response to each SIS and Statcast, whereas the third was a line drive. All three hits exist alongside the groundball-to-line drive spectrum, however as with the colours, two of them are “identical” and one is “completely different.”

This isn’t a grand revelation. I’m hardly the primary particular person to put in writing concerning the blurry line between groundballs and line drives and the even blurrier border separating line drives and fly balls. What I’m questioning is that if the rationale these two are labeled as separate kinds of batted balls…

…whereas these two are each line drives…

…is identical purpose why we’d say JT Chargois is carrying the identical colour in displays A and B however a special colour in exhibit C. Is all of it about language?

Categorical notion describes the human tendency to view variations between objects inside classes as a lot smaller than variations between objects in separate classes, even when these variations are of the identical magnitude. In different phrases, as soon as we have now created classes, intra-category variations can appear much less vital than inter-category ones.

For instance, analysis contributors have been discovered to understand variations between varieties of 1 colour and variations between kinds of one other colour as a lot smaller than equal-sized variations that traverse the boundary between these two colours. This helps clarify why separating blue into two classes (siniy and goluboy) permits Russian audio system to higher distinguish between shades of blue. On the flip facet, it helps clarify why English audio system are worse at distinguishing between darker and lighter blues.

I feel we have now the identical downside with line drives. In keeping with the Dickson Baseball Dictionary, the primary identified use of the time period “line drive” was in an 1876 problem of the Chicago Tribune, although it was additionally used a minimum of a yr earlier to explain an identical kind of batted ball in cricket. Meaning the time period predates what we all know immediately as Main League Baseball, and it has been round since lengthy, lengthy earlier than we had any solution to measure launch angle or exit velocity. It’s the identical for “groundball” and “fly ball” (and “popup”). Does it actually make sense that we’re nonetheless utilizing the identical major classes for batted balls which were round for nearly so long as the sport itself? I imply, possibly. However on the very least, it’s price contemplating that we solely deal with line drives as a single, unified class as a result of that’s all we have now the language to explain.

The colour time period “blue” implies an outlined class, distinct from inexperienced, purple, and so on., and encompasses each shade from navy to powder. In the identical method, the time period “line drive” implies an outlined class, distinct from groundballs and fly balls, and encompasses all types of contact from low screamers to frozen-rope house runs. But, I’m wondering if it wouldn’t be extra helpful to separate line drives into two classes: low line drives and excessive line drives. Utilizing the qualifiers “low” and “excessive” makes it appear to be I’m discussing subcategories, however that’s solely as a result of an absence of particular language forces subcategorization. You don’t have to say darkish and light-weight blue when you may have siniy and goluboy.

Over the previous three seasons, main league batters have hit almost 75,000 line drives, per Statcast. The median launch angle of these 75,000 line drives is someplace round 16 to 17 levels. That’s additionally the approximate midpoint between the place line drive batting common peaks (12-13 levels) and line drive ISO peaks (21 levels). So, 16 levels looks as if the fitting upward cutoff level for a “low liner,” and 17 levels looks as if the fitting start line for a “excessive liner.” Utilizing these definitions, right here’s how the 2 kinds of batted ball have carried out since 2023:

Near 58% of low liners have became singles, in comparison with 27% of excessive liners. In the meantime, excessive liners are about 130 occasions extra prone to be house runs. Out of greater than 38,000 low liners from the previous three seasons, simply 10 have left the yard. That’s not so stunning; a batter has to utterly smoke the baseball to get it over the fence with a launch angle beneath 17 levels. Nonetheless, low liners are way more productive than excessive liners as a result of they’re a lot more durable to catch. Solely 1 / 4 of low liners flip into outs, whereas excessive liners discover a fielder’s glove virtually half the time.

Right here’s how these numbers look in comparison with the identical stats for groundballs and fly balls:

The distinction in ISO between excessive liners and low liners is nearly as large because the distinction in ISO between low liners and groundballs. Equally, the distinction in batting common between low liners and excessive liners actually isn’t that a lot smaller than the distinction in batting common between excessive liners and fly balls. So, when it comes to the outcomes they generate, low liners and excessive liners are roughly as completely different from each other as they’re from another kind of batted ball. There’s additionally a visible element. Low liners extra carefully resemble groundballs, whereas excessive liners have extra in frequent with fly balls, and that’s not simply due to every’s proximity to the bottom. Low liners, like groundballs, usually tend to be hit to the batter’s pull facet. In the meantime, excessive liners, like fly balls, are much less prone to be pulled than they’re to be hit straightaway or to the other discipline:

You would argue that each one this proves is that batted balls exist on a spectrum, which was by no means up for debate. In spite of everything, you may assume, we may chop up any kind of batted ball into any variety of smaller teams and are available away with completely different stats for every subtype. That may effectively be true, however by that line of considering, there’s no level in categorizing batted balls in any respect.

Nobody would disagree that the exact cutoff factors for any system of batted ball classification are arbitrary. Nonetheless, batted ball varieties are an extremely great tool for describing and analyzing the sport. Meaningless cutoff factors are a obligatory evil within the creation of classes that completely do matter. So, this has by no means been a query of discovering the “right” dividing strains between various kinds of contact. Moderately, it’s about being open to the concept that just a few phrases invented 150 years in the past aren’t the be-all and end-all of batted balls.

So why excessive and low line drives? I may present you the stats for prime and low groundballs or excessive and low fly balls, nevertheless it wouldn’t be as fascinating. A groundball hit too low is simply poor contact. The identical goes for a fly ball hit too excessive. High and low line drives, nonetheless, are each efficient however in numerous methods. Low liners are priceless as a result of they’re more likely than groundballs to go for singles. Excessive liners are priceless as a result of they’re a lot much less doubtless than fly balls to be caught after they don’t escape the yard.

That’s just about the crux of the matter: Low liners and excessive liners achieve alternative ways. To that time, think about the pronounced distinction in common exit velocity and hard-hit charge between high and low liners:

It makes intuitive sense that low liners, on common, are hit more durable; in the event that they weren’t hit laborious sufficient, they’d contact the bottom too quickly and be labeled groundballs as a substitute of line drives. The factor is, whereas low liners usually tend to be hit laborious, they don’t have to be hit as laborious as a way to achieve success. Arduous-hit low liners have a wOBA 15% larger than non-hard-hit low liners. Arduous-hit excessive liners have a wOBA 38% larger than non-hard-hit excessive liners. Even so, they nonetheless aren’t as priceless as their hard-hit low counterparts:

The opposite facet of that coin is that top liners have way more to achieve from extra exit velocity. At an exit velocity of round 105 mph, excessive liners lastly eclipse low liners in productiveness, they usually solely get extra priceless the more durable they’re hit. Low liners, however, are all equally productive at any exit velocity between 90 and 104 mph, they usually solely turn out to be marginally extra productive with every added mile per hour above 105:

The easy clarification for that is low liners and excessive liners have completely different targets. All else being equal, hitting the ball more durable is nearly all the time going to result in higher outcomes on the plate. That stated, exit velocity makes a a lot greater distinction when you’re going for further bases. The distinction between a double and a house run is commonly just some miles per hour of exit velocity. Relating to hitting singles, nonetheless, typically it’s equally efficient to dink the ball in entrance of the outfielders as it’s to ship it over their heads.

On a associated notice, the distinction between high and low line drives has grown extra pronounced lately. Baseball Prospectus’s Russell Carlton has written about line drives extensively, noting that they’re being caught at a better charge than up to now and, maybe in response, line drive charges have declined. But, in response to the Statcast information, these results haven’t been the identical for each high and low line drives.

Low line drives, that are much less prone to being caught, even have a better batting common over the previous three seasons than they did within the first three years (or another three-year interval) of the Statcast period. That’s all of the extra spectacular contemplating the league-wide BABIP has declined considerably, dropping from .300 from 2015-17 to only .293 from 2023-25. Moreover, the low line drive charge has solely declined by half as a lot because the excessive line drive charge. In consequence, batters proceed to generate virtually as a lot worth with low line drives as they did at first of the Statcast period. In distinction, excessive line drives have turn out to be a far much less plentiful supply of runs:

I hope all this was sufficient to persuade you that low liners and excessive liners are helpful as distinct classes for describing and understanding the sport. There’ll by no means be an ideal solution to slap labels onto a spectrum. Dividing strains will all the time be fuzzy, and language will all the time restrict the labels we create. Even my proposal to separate line drives in two is biased by language; if there have been a standard English phrase for “medium top,” maybe I’d be suggesting three new groupings as a substitute of simply excessive and low.

In the end, nonetheless, I’m not too involved with whether or not excessive and low line drives are the right classes to counsel, or if I’ve cut up them up the right method. What issues to me most is just contemplating the likelihood that such extra classes exist. If language is the one factor holding us again from perceiving blue as two discrete colours, possibly it’s additionally the one factor stopping us from seeing line drives as two various kinds of batted balls. Maybe it’s time to open our eyes to the siniy and goluboy of line drives.

All stats by way of June 29.