The Orioles dropped each video games of a doubleheader in opposition to Minnesota yesterday, falling 11 video games below .500. They stored the dangerous occasions rolling with one other loss this afternoon, attending to 12 video games below. It’s the nadir of their season to this point, one from which they’ll have a troublesome time coming again.
As of final week, common supervisor Mike Elias wasn’t occupied with considering the chance that they’ll be deadline sellers. “We’ve received a document that’s not reflective of who we consider our staff is, that I don’t assume anybody thought our staff was, and we’re digging a gap out of the standings proper now due to that,” the GM advised Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of The New York Publish on their podcast final Tuesday. “Hopefully, we claw again loads of actual property within the standings and we get again within the mode that we totally anticipated to be. That’s my focus proper now. If it someway evolves in any other case, I’ll deal with it then.”
The staff has dropped six of eight video games since these feedback. Even with Zach Eflin coming back from the injured listing over the weekend, the beginning rotation seems untenable. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg face unsure timelines to make it again from their very own IL stints. The percentages are very a lot not of their favor. FanGraphs has the O’s playoff probabilities all the way down to a season-low 4.4%. The entrance workplace actually didn’t anticipate being deadline sellers, however it’s more and more troublesome to see them avoiding that destiny.
It could be stunning if the Orioles dealt any controllable core items like Westburg, Adley Rutschman or Jackson Holliday. It’d be powerful to discover a taker on Tyler O’Neill given his annual $16.5MM salaries and opt-out clause. Tomoyuki Sugano has had strong leads to his first massive league season, however he most likely has modest commerce worth on a $13MM wage given his below-average velocity and 14.2% strikeout charge.
That leaves a pair of rental bats as Baltimore’s prime commerce candidates: Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins. The previous has systematically improved over his two and a half seasons at Camden Yards. O’Hearn was a profession .219/.293/.390 hitter when the Orioles acquired him from the Royals over the 2022-23 offseason. He turned in what was then a personal-best .289/.322/.480 slash throughout his first season in Baltimore. Final yr’s batting line appears superficially like a step again — he hit .264/.334/.427 in 494 plate appearances — however it got here with a dramatically superior strikeout and stroll profile than he confirmed in 2023.
O’Hearn has maintained these spectacular plate self-discipline metrics whereas hitting for extra energy early this yr. He carries a .287/.374/.519 mark with seven longballs throughout 123 plate appearances. O’Hearn isn’t chasing pitches exterior the strike zone. His 15.4% strikeout charge is properly beneath the 22.1% league common. He’s making onerous contact (a 95+ MPH exit velocity) on half his batted balls, properly up from final season’s 40% clip.
The speed stats are barely inflated by the O’s tendency to defend O’Hearn from unfavorable platoon matchups. They’ve largely stored him away from left-handed pitching, giving him simply 94 plate appearances in opposition to southpaws over the previous three seasons. He’s extra of a strong-side platoon bat than a real on a regular basis participant, however O’Hearn is prospering in that function. He’s as much as a .280/.339/.465 slash in practically 900 plate appearances in opposition to righty pitching as a member of the Orioles.
That sort of manufacturing is a discount for a participant making an $8MM wage. O’Hearn will likely be a first-time free agent subsequent yr, as he enters his age-32 season. It’s powerful to see the Orioles making him a qualifying provide that’d probably be north of $21MM. He has an excellent shot at a multi-year contract, however the O’s would most likely be higher served letting him stroll to open first base/DH enjoying time for Coby Mayo. That each one factors to a commerce.
Baltimore received’t pull the set off on that sort of transfer two and a half months from the deadline, however he appears prone to be obtainable in July. The Giants and Crimson Sox are the obvious potential suitors for a rental first baseman. Boston will likely be with out Triston Casas all season. San Francisco has gotten nothing out of LaMonte Wade Jr. this yr. They received’t need to block prime prospect Bryce Eldridge in 2026 however ought to make a short-term add on the place. The Rangers and Mariners would additionally make sense as touchdown spots.
The Orioles would wish a stronger return on Mullins, who could find yourself being probably the greatest all-around place gamers obtainable. The lefty-hitting middle fielder takes a .230/.335/.446 line with eight homers into right now’s sport in opposition to Minnesota. Most of that manufacturing got here early within the season. Mullins carried a .278/.412/.515 slash by the tip of April. He’s hitting .119/.119/.286 so far in Might. He’s clearly amidst a skid on the plate, however he nonetheless ranks among the many sport’s most efficient middle fielders total. He’s tied for fourth on the place in homers and ranks eighth in on-base share (minimal 100 plate appearances).
Even when Mullins was punching above his weight by the season’s first few weeks, he’s a high quality participant. He has been a median or higher hitter in 5 consecutive seasons. He has topped 30 stolen bases in three of the final 4 years. The general public metrics are cut up on his glove — he charges extra extremely by Statcast’s Outs Above Common than he does within the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved — however there’s little doubt that he can play middle area. There’s a dearth of expertise on the place on the commerce market, particularly if Luis Robert Jr. continues to underperform offensively.
Mullins is making $8.725MM in his closing season of arbitration management. There’s a good probability the O’s would make him the qualifying provide if he’s not traded, however a multiple-prospect package deal may very well be superior to at least one compensatory draft choose. The Guardians, Phillies, Mets, Rangers and A’s are only a handful of contenders that would search for an improve in middle area.
Respective photographs courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas and Gregory Fisher, Imagn Photos
