Whereas the Cubs are 22-15 and personal a three-game lead within the NL Central — the most important of any group at this writing — the rotation that’s helped them to that perch has taken its hits lately. Final month, 2023 All-Star lefty Justin Steele underwent surgical procedure to restore his ulnar collateral ligament, and Javier Assad suffered a setback whereas rehabbing to return from an indirect pressure. After which on Monday, the Cubs positioned 2024 All-Star lefty Shota Imanaga on the injured listing resulting from a left hamstring pressure. Whereas his damage isn’t thought of to be main, his loss may tighten the division race and take a look at the depth of the already-depleted rotation.
After leaving his April 29 begin towards the Pirates after 5 innings resulting from cramps in each quadriceps, Imanaga cruised by way of the primary 5 innings towards the Brewers on Sunday in Milwaukee, permitting simply three singles whereas hanging out 4 and not using a stroll. The 31-year-old’s afternoon ended on a bitter be aware, nonetheless. With the sport nonetheless scoreless within the sixth, he yielded a leadoff single to Jackson Chourio after which a one-out stroll to William Contreras. It seemed as if he would possibly escape unscathed when he received Christian Yelich to floor to first baseman Michael Busch, who began a possible 3-6-1 double play. Imanaga ran to cowl first base, however not solely was Dansby Swanson’s throw a bit late, the pitcher got here up limping, forcing him out of the sport.
Reliever Julian Merryweather entered, threw a wild pitch that allowed Chourio to attain from third, and by the point he received the ultimate out, three extra runs had scored in what ended as a 4-0 loss for the Cubs. They suffered a way more ugly defeat on Tuesday, when reliever Ryan Pressly allowed eight straight Giants to achieve base in what grew to become a nine-run eleventh inning and a 14-5 drubbing.
An MRI of Imanaga’s injured leg revealed a gentle pressure, and he was positioned on the 15-day injured listing. He’ll doubtless be out longer, as Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer informed reporters, “Crucial factor with that sort of damage is to get him again and wholesome for the rest of the season, not simply to get him again. You speak about returning to play, versus returning to your earlier type. That’s an important factor, and it might take a while to get there.”
By means of eight begins totaling 44 2/3 innings, Imanaga had typically been efficient, in that his 2.82 ERA was barely beneath final 12 months’s 2.91 mark. Nevertheless, each his 4.52 FIP and 4.58 xERA counsel he was strolling a tightrope. Relative to final season, his first within the U.S. after a six-year run with NPB’s Yokohama Bay Stars, his strikeout fee had dropped from 25.2% to 18.8%, whereas his stroll fee had risen from 4.0% to 7.7%. In the meantime, his common exit velocity allowed has elevated from 88.6 mph to 90.4, his barrel fee from 8.6% to 10.5%, and his pulled air fee from 22.5% to 24.1%.
One consider Imanaga’s taking a step backward in these areas could also be that he has lowered his arm angle from 40 levels final 12 months to 37 this 12 months. The decrease angle is meant to create deception and enhance the quantity of arm-side run for his four-seam fastball (and it has, by almost two inches). However the pitch has turn out to be a lot much less efficient when thrown within the higher third of the strike zone, the place batters have improved their slugging proportion from .448 to .586 and their barrel fee from 13.2% to 22.2% — a trade-off not definitely worth the beneficial properties in whiff fee (from 17% to 23.3%). General, batters are slugging .594 towards his four-seamer this season, up from .471 final 12 months; his Statcast run worth on the pitch has plummeted from 4 to -7.
The Cubs have but to find out who will fill Imanaga’s rotation slot, although on Monday supervisor Craig Counsell pointed to veteran Chris Flexen and prospect Cade Horton as the highest choices. Flexen, a 30-year-old righty, spent final season on the south aspect of Chicago, laboring as the highest innings eater on the abysmal White Sox. He didn’t pitch as badly as his 3-15 document suggests, however his 4.95 ERA (122 ERA-) and 4.80 FIP (114 FIP-) have been each subpar. Signed to a minor league deal by the Cubs, he made 5 begins for his or her Triple-A Iowa affiliate, posting a 1.16 ERA and a pair of.88 FIP in 23 1/3 innings, earlier than being referred to as up on April 30. He earned a three-inning save in his season debut on Friday, shutting out the Brewers on one hit and two walks whereas hanging out 4.
Now that he’s on each the 26- and 40-man rosters, Flexen has a leg up on Horton, a 23-year-old righty who was the seventh choose of the 2022 draft out of the College of Oklahoma. The 6-foot-1, 211-pound righty positioned sixty fourth on our up to date Prime 100 Prospects listing this spring as a 50-FV prospect. Right here’s a part of what Eric Longenhagen wrote about him:
Horton’s supply is pretty violent and certainly seems to be powerful on his shoulder. Different features of his fastball are unexceptional, so it’s essential for Horton to throw onerous for that pitch to be efficient. His secondary pitches are what drive his mid-rotation projection right here. Horton’s slider and changeup each generate plus-plus charges of miss. His slider has uncommon velocity and two-plane tilt (it’s a weapon towards each left- and right-handed hitters), and his screwball changeup offers him one other option to get lefties out. Horton will in all probability work inefficiently as a starter until his peak velocity returns, and must pitch off his secondary stuff a ton. He’s nonetheless more likely to be an impression pitcher, however out of the blue his listing of profession arm maladies has grown, forcing Horton towards the again of the general Prime 100.
To date at Triple-A Iowa, Horton has pitched to a 1.24 ERA and three.58 FIP, with a 30.6% strikeout fee in 29 innings. His common four-seam velocity has climbed from 94.1 mph final 12 months — when he made simply 9 begins at Double-A Tennessee and Iowa earlier than being sidelined by a shoulder pressure — to 95.8 mph to date, a really promising improvement.
In isolation, the lack of Imanaga for just a few weeks isn’t a significant issue for the Cubs, however the accidents are piling up. In mid-February, Assad strained his indirect; the 27-year-old righty made it so far as his second rehab begin at Iowa earlier than struggling a setback with the damage. The Cubs transferred him to the 60-day injured listing to accommodate the addition of Flexen to the roster. However by far the larger blow is the lack of Steele, which occurred almost a month in the past however in some way by no means discovered its method into our protection right here at FanGraphs. After making his first All-Star group and ending fifth within the NL Cy Younger race in 2023 on the energy of a 3.06 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 4.8 WAR, he was equally efficient final 12 months (3.07 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 3.0 WAR) however restricted to 24 begins resulting from a left hamstring pressure and tendinitis in his left elbow. The 29-year-old southpaw was roughed as much as the tune of a 6.89 ERA and 6.32 FIP in his first three begins of this season, however rebounded to throw seven innings in a mixed shutout of the Rangers on April 4, permitting simply three hits and two walks whereas hanging out eight.
Sadly, earlier than he may take his subsequent flip, Steele informed the Cubs he had skilled elbow tightness throughout that begin. The group positioned him on the 15-day IL with what was described as one other bout of tendinitis. Counsell expressed hope that Steele would solely miss the minimal, and the pitcher reportedly conveyed the same expectation. Alas, a follow-up MRI revealed that he’d suffered a UCL damage, and on April 18, Steele underwent what the Cubs described as a “revision restore” of his UCL by Dr. Keith Meister. The terminology is getting murkier as variants of UCL restore procedures proliferate, however what which means is that this was not a full ligament reconstruction alongside the traces of Steele’s August 2017 Tommy John surgical procedure, which he underwent whereas pitching for the Cubs’ Excessive-A affiliate in his fourth skilled season. “We’re sort of a couple of 12 months timeframe,” Counsell stated afterward.
Thus a rotation that ranked twenty first in our preseason Positional Energy Rankings is now down the one two starters who projected to supply greater than 1.7 WAR, and whereas the Cubs anticipate to get certainly one of them again, that’s not an ideal place to be. The remainder of the rotation has pitched fairly properly up to now, nevertheless it’s clear the Cubs are going to wish to seek out some innings elsewhere, as a result of aside from 33-year-old righty Jameson Taillon and 34-year-old righty Colin Rea, these starters haven’t shouldered substantial workloads in recent times. Taillon, a two-time Tommy John surgical procedure recipient, has put up a stable however unspectacular 3.86 ERA and 4.09 FIP in 39 2/3 innings to date. He’s developed right into a reliable workhorse by post-pandemic requirements, in that he’s certainly one of simply 15 pitchers who has reached the 140-inning mark in every of the previous 4 seasons; he ranks nineteenth within the majors with 681 innings because the begin of 2021 (together with this season), although his 8.8 WAR in that span is tied for 52nd.
Matthew Boyd, whose two-year, $29 million deal made him the Cubs’ most outstanding free agent addition this previous offseason, has posted a 2.75 ERA and three.74 FIP in 39 1/3 innings to date. Even so, the 34-year-old lefty hasn’t thrown greater than 78 2/3 innings in a season since 2019, with the pandemic, flexor tendon surgical procedure in September 2021, and Tommy John surgical procedure in June 2023 limiting him to a complete of 263 innings from 2020–24. Ben Brown, a 25-year-old righty who debuted final season however didn’t pitch after June 8 due to a stress response in his neck, leads all Cubs starters with a 23.8% strikeout fee, however his 9.5% stroll fee is tops among the many group as properly. Relying virtually solely on a four-seam/knuckle curve combo, he’s generated a wholesome 44.7% groundball fee, however has been touched up for a 4.88 ERA (although only a 3.72 FIP) throughout 31 1/3 innings.
Rea, a journeyman who set profession highs with 167 innings and 0.9 WAR with the Brewers final 12 months, has completed an admirable job of filling in for Steele after starting the 12 months within the bullpen, the place he threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings. When Steele went down, the Cubs have been left to stretch Rea out on the fly, so he’s totaled simply 24 2/3 innings in his 5 begins. In that point he has a 2.96 ERA and three.12 FIP, and total, he owns a 2.43 ERA and a pair of.98 FIP with a 20.3% strikeout fee. He’s utilizing a unique combine and totally different strategy than he did final 12 months with the Brewers, decreasing his arm angle from 35 levels to 30 and emphasizing his four-seamer, which relative to final 12 months has elevated from 93 mph to 93.9 and has gained a pair further inches of arm-side run (from 6.5 to eight.5). He’s throwing the heater 52.7% of the time, up from 19.5% final 12 months, together with his sinker utilization plummeting from 30.9% to five.6%. Like Imanaga, he’s pitching up within the zone with the four-seamer with larger frequency than final 12 months, however to not larger success, although total batters have slugged simply .361 towards the pitch. In reality, Rea’s sturdy efficiency up to now has been pushed by a newfound capability to keep away from onerous contact. He’s lower his barrel fee from 8.7% to six.6% and his hard-hit fee from 42% to 38.4%; each of these symbolize enhancements from percentiles someplace within the 20s to percentiles someplace within the 60s.
Presumably, if the Cubs proceed to contend they’ll be available in the market for a rotation improve previous to the July 31 commerce deadline, although the ongoing buzz about their doubtlessly focusing on Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara has been tempered by the previous Cy Younger winner’s depressing return from Tommy John surgical procedure; he’s been lit for an 8.42 ERA. Notably whereas Imanaga recovers, the Cubs must cross their fingers and hope nothing else goes improper of their rotation.
