Rays’ Parade of Trades Now Contains Isaac Paredes

At greatest, the Rays (54-52) and Cubs (51-56) are on the outskirts of their leagues’ respective Wild Card races, and whereas each have been busy forward of the July 30 commerce deadline, they’re geared in the direction of bettering for down the street reasonably than this season. On Sunday, the 2 groups got here collectively for a swap of club-controlled third basemen, with Isaac Paredes heading to Chicago and Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay together with a pair of pitching prospects, righties Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.

The 25-year-old Paredes is not any stranger to the Cubs, as they signed him out of Mexico for an $800,000 bonus in July 2015, then traded him to Tigers on July 31, 2017 — when he was nonetheless in A-ball — alongside Jeimer Candelario in trade for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Since being dealt to the Rays in April 2022, he’s developed into an efficient middle-of-the-lineup hitter. After receiving down-ballot MVP help for his 31-homer, .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) efficiency final 12 months, he made his first All-Star staff this 12 months, and is at the moment hitting .245/.357/.435 (130 wRC+) with 16 homers.

Regardless of that output, Paredes doesn’t hit the ball very laborious. His 85-mph common exit velocity ranks in simply the fourth percentile, whereas his 26.1% hard-hit fee is within the fifth percentile; his 5.4% barrel fee is within the twenty sixth percentile. However Paredes excels at pulling fly balls, and significantly at depositing them into the left discipline nook, which at Tropicana Subject is nearer to residence plate (315 ft) than any present ballpark, since balls hit to Fenway Park’s Inexperienced Monster (310 ft away however with a 37-foot excessive wall) and Minute Maid’s Crawford Packing containers (315 ft away with a 21-foot excessive wall) each require better elevation to get out. Coming into Sunday, Paredes’ 46 pulled fly balls tied him with Anthony Santander for the foremost league lead, with all 16 of his homers coming through that route.

Right here’s a have a look at his spray charts for the previous two seasons:

Because the begin of 2022, Paredes has the best fee of pulled flies within the majors, however notice that he’s not precisely scorching them:

Santander’s 67 homers leads the majors in that span, although his fee is barely 41.1%.

“Isaac Paredes Retains getting Away With It,” wrote Ben Clemens final month whereas exploring his excessive batted ball tendencies. The catch now could be that Wrigley Subject is 355 ft down the left discipline line, so one has to surprise how effectively Paredes’ manufacturing will translate to the Windy Metropolis. Through Statcast, 25 of final 12 months’s 31 homers and 11 of this 12 months’s 16 would have been out at Wrigley, but when the remainder of these are routine fly balls, his numbers will take successful.

Defensively, Paredes is kind of common at third base, and has some expertise at second and first; he’s even performed shortstop in a pinch. He’s making $3.4 million this 12 months as a Tremendous Two, and so he has three extra years of management remaining.

With 2.9 WAR this 12 months and 4.3 WAR final 12 months, Paredes actually eyeballs as an improve on Morel, who’s additionally 25 however who has struggled mightily this 12 months to the purpose that he made my Alternative Stage Killers record. He’s 0.1 wins beneath substitute degree after netting simply 1.5 WAR final 12 months.

Increasing upon what I wrote for the Killers record lower than two weeks in the past, Morel’s 18 residence runs put him on tempo to surpass final 12 months’s whole of 26, however nearly every little thing else about his recreation has gone backward. He’s hitting simply .199/.302/.373 for a 92 wRC+, down 27 factors from final 12 months. Whereas he’s reduce his strikeout fee from 31.0% to 24.5%, he’s additionally shed 2.3 mph in common exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.8). His .242 xBA and .451 xSLG are fairly just like final 12 months’s numbers, and his .346 xwOBA is a six-point enchancment, however the place his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven factors in 2023, his precise manufacturing is 47 factors shy of his anticipated mark this season.

Possibly it’s simply dangerous luck, however Morel’s excessive pull fee (48.5%) could possibly be an element, significantly provided that he pulls so many balls on the bottom. Righties throughout the majors are collectively hitting .219 and slugging .262 on pulled grounders, however Morel is at .151 AVG/.164 SLG. Defensively, he ranks final on the place in FRV (-9), is tied for third-worst in DRS (-5), and is seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4).

That’s not tremendously promising, however maybe the Rays can get Morel to raise the ball with better consistency and dunk it into the left discipline nook à la Paredes. He’s cheap, making simply $767,000 this 12 months, and has yet one more 12 months earlier than he’s eligible for arbitration. However he might not even get to play frequently at third base for lengthy, as 21-year-old Junior Caminero, the Rays’ high prospect (and no. 3 general), might get referred to as up quickly. Morel does have versatility to name upon, as he has current expertise in any respect three outfield spots, second base, and even a little bit of shortstop.

The Rays additionally obtained two pitching prospects in trade for Paredes. Of the pair, the 26-year-old Bigge is the one with main league expertise, albeit simply 4 appearances totaling 3.1 innings earlier this month. A Twelfth-round select of Harvard in 2019, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty has battled accidents throughout his skilled profession, together with a torn labrum in his hip in 2021 and an indirect pressure earlier this 12 months. Due to a velocity achieve this 12 months, he’s been dominant when accessible; in 13.1 innings at Triple-A Iowa, he’s struck out 20 (41.7%) whereas permitting simply three hits and 6 walks. He’s on The Board as a 40 FV prospect. Right here’s what Eric Longenhagen needed to say after I requested him about Bigge at this time:

Bigge was sitting 88-92 at Harvard… however had a spike into the 92-96 mph vary within the bullpen after he was drafted. For the previous couple of seasons, Bigge’s stuff has ridden a little bit of a curler coaster; there have been instances when he’s sitting 92-94 and others (like extra not too long ago) when he’s sitting 97-99. He’s additionally handled accidents and wildness at instances, however in 2024 Bigge modified his placement on the rubber and he seems to be extra snug from this start line. After beginning the 12 months on the IL, he has thrown actually laborious and stored his walks at an affordable degree. If the adjustments to Bigge’s operation have resulted in precise strike-throwing progress, then he’s going to be massive league reliever. His upper-80s cutter and mid-80s sweeper give him two different above-average pitches (the cutter is best). If the strikes are a small pattern blip, then he’ll be restricted to extra low-leverage spots throughout his Rays tenure.

The 22-year-old Johnson is the larger prospect, each actually (he lists at 6-foot-6, 205 kilos) and figuratively (he’s bought a 40+ FV grade). A Fifteenth-round 2023 select of Ball State, he’s break up his first skilled season between the Cubs’ A-level Myrtle Seaside and Excessive-A South Bend associates, posting a 3.54 ERA and a pair of.73 FIP with a 32.5% strikeout fee in 61 innings, usually going three or 4 at a time in a beginning or tandem position. Right here’s what Eric needed to say about Johnson:

Johnson’s velocity has taken a leap and he seems to be way more bodily now than he did a 12 months in the past at Ball State. In reality, Johnson has been throwing tougher and tougher throughout the 2024 season. His fastball averaged about 92 in a begin a few month earlier than the 2024 commerce deadline, and in his last outing, he was as much as 97 early and averaged 94-95. He’s all the time had a brilliant quick arm motion, however now Johnson appears to have extra constant really feel for launch and he’s throwing loads of strikes with this funky tailing fastball. His breaking ball is comfortably plus, with tight, late two-plane motion. If Johnson can enhance his at the moment below-average changeup, then he’ll have a starter’s coffer of pitches. His arm circle is so comically quick and tight that it might not be within the playing cards for him to do this, and as an alternative maybe the Rays will assist him develop a second distinct breaking ball. Johnson has a center reduction flooring with the fastball/breaking ball combo he’s at the moment wielding, and in addition has some late-bloomer traits (his measurement and small college background) that point out he may be capable to hold bettering.

All advised, it’s an fascinating haul for the Rays, who’ve now traded two lineup regulars (Randy Arozarena is the opposite), two starters (Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin), and two relievers (Jason Adam and Phil Maton), shaving roughly $12 million off this 12 months’s payroll alone whereas including 14 prospects to their system. As for the Cubs, they’ve most likely improved their main league roster, however the excessive form of Paredes’ manufacturing does create some added threat. Even when he’s an improve, he’s not going to show their season round, but when his manufacturing interprets, he could possibly be a middle-of-the-lineup cornerstone for the subsequent few years.