The month of January is nearly performed, which suggests pitchers and catchers might be reporting to spring coaching in a few weeks, however there may be nonetheless loads of offseason enterprise left to be resolved. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic stories that a part of the explanation issues are transferring slowly is that there are nonetheless numerous ongoing commerce talks, with Dylan Stop and Michael King of the Padres “among the many beginning pitchers who stay in play.”
Stop’s identify has been in loads of rumors this winter however that is the firmest indication of the winter that King is doubtlessly accessible as effectively. The logic for the Friars contemplating a commerce is identical for each pitchers, as every goes into his ultimate season of arbitration management.
The Padres are clearly working with monetary restraints this winter, although their precise spending means isn’t completely clear. For a lot of the winter, reporting indicated that they wanted to chop their projected 2025 payroll. However reporting from latest days suggests the membership might be able to hold their projected spending round its present stage, give or take.
Even when the Friars don’t must considerably lower spending, contemplating trades of gamers like Stop or King remains to be comprehensible. The membership wants to handle left area, catcher, the rotation and possibly shortstop as effectively. With little wiggle room within the price range, signing free brokers to fill these holes might be tough. The membership’s greatest contracts are laborious to maneuver since every of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove has a full no-trade clause. Jake Cronenworth has partial no-trade safety and his contract isn’t terribly interesting in the mean time.
In an analogous place final winter, the Padres felt they wanted to maneuver on from Juan Soto whereas he was one season away from free company. By flipping Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees, the Padres introduced again 5 gamers who have been much less established however nonetheless improved the depth within the rotation and behind the plate. One of many gamers they acquired again was King, one other was Drew Thorpe, who helped the Padres get Stop from the White Sox.
Now with one other price range crunch, gamers like Luis Arráez, Stop and/or King might be this 12 months’s Soto. All three are one 12 months away from the open market and haven’t any means to cease a commerce. Arráez will make $14MM this 12 months and Stop $13.75MM. King and the Padres didn’t come to an settlement previous to the arbitration submitting deadline and are slated for a listening to. He filed at $8.8MM and the membership at $7.325MM.
The lesser worth is a mirrored image of King’s smaller monitor document in comparison with Stop. Whereas the latter has been a longtime massive league starter for a very long time now, King actually solely has one season as a real bona fide rotation choice. He spent a lot of his Yankee profession in a swing position, oscillating between the rotation and bullpen. Late in 2023, with the Yankees out of rivalry, he put collectively a powerful run of begins and appeared to have the potential for a bigger position.
The Padres made a guess on him by buying him as a key piece of the Soto deal, and that labored out fairly effectively. King tossed 173 2/3 innings over 31 appearances final 12 months, with 30 of these being begins. The opposite was a protracted aid outing through the Seoul Collection, earlier than the season had begun in earnest. He allowed simply 2.95 earned runs per 9 on the 12 months, with a 27.7% strikeout price and eight.7% stroll price. He additionally made two postseason begins for the Friars, including one other 12 innings with a 3.75 ERA. He completed seventh in Nationwide League Cy Younger voting.
That ought to give King loads of commerce attraction going into 2025. Whereas the monitor document isn’t so long as that of Stop, the value is effectively beneath market charges for beginning pitching. Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander every acquired $15MM one-year offers this offseason. Cobb is 37 years previous and Verlander about to show 42, with each pitchers having been injured for a lot of the 2024 marketing campaign.
A King commerce would clear much less payroll area for the Padres than one involving Stop or Arráez, since King is slated to make about half as a lot as the opposite two. Nonetheless, if the Padres discover a proposal to their liking, the logic could be related. They may theoretically flip King for cheaper however much less established gamers, maybe addressing considered one of their many wants whereas additionally enhancing their depth in different areas. They’d additionally acquire $8MM or so, give or take, to dedicate to different pursuits.
It will be a difficult tightrope to stroll for the reason that rotation already wants upgrading as it’s and subtracting King or Stop would solely add to their want in that division. However given the monetary circumstances, it’s one thing they should take into consideration. As of proper now, the rotation consists of Darvish, King, Stop and loads of uncertainty. Guys like Matt Waldron, Adrián Morejón or others might fill within the again however these guys have some query marks.
Time will inform if something comes from these commerce talks. The Padres have been on this scenario for many of the winter however have been very quiet. Maybe that’s attributable to the truth that they have been a severe suitor for Roki Sasaki and wished to know his selection earlier than continuing. With Sasaki signing with the Dodgers final week and spring coaching now so shut, maybe the Padres will blink on one thing. However, free brokers like Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and Andrew Heaney are nonetheless on the market, which might forestall golf equipment from aggressively pushing the Padres for a deal. Pitchers like Marcus Stroman, Luis Castillo, Jordan Montgomery and Chris Paddack are doubtless accessible in trades as effectively. The place participant market nonetheless options Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, with these staring contests maybe broadly holding issues up as effectively.
