Sequels usually suck and find yourself disappointing. However why? Possibly all of the inventive power used to create the OG left nothing for future endeavors. Many may simply be cash grabs to mine the recognition of the primary. Heightened expectations might not fulfill irrespective of how good it’s. Regardless of the cause, we have now develop into cynical to sequels, and for good cause, as a result of they haven’t delivered time and time once more. However that doesn’t imply they all the time do. Godfather 2 and The Darkish Knight say hello. Final season, I wrote an article for J.P. Crawford, One Man’s Trash: J. (ust) P. (lay) Crawford. I’m writing the sequel at present. Let’s see if it will probably stand the take a look at of time and languish within the pantheon of the greats.
I often write up the essential background of a participant and their minor league historical past, however I did all that within the OG, so click on on the above hyperlink to get that information and supply Gray and I $.000000001.
Crawford ended final season with 19 residence runs, 94 runs, 65 RBI, and two stolen bases. The stroll price was 14.7% whereas the strikeout price was 19.6%. He completed with a .172 ISO and .266/.380/.438 slash. Steamer has Crawford projected for 14 residence runs, 86 runs, 60 RBI, and 4 stolen bases with a .259/.355/.391 slash, 12.0% stroll price, 17.3% strikeout price and .132 ISO.
Most projection methods take a look at the previous three seasons and common them out. In Crawford’s case, that makes essentially the most sense as a result of 2023 seems to be like an outlier. Previous to final season, he had a .093 and .103 ISO.
Nevertheless it’s been properly documented that he went to Driveline and adjusted his strategy. He began pulling the ball extra to extend the ability. The pull price went from the mid-30s to 43% final season. The typical exit velocity went from 85 mph to 88.3. The barrel went from 2.0% to 4.8% whereas the launch angle went from 8.9 to fifteen.1 levels. The strikeout price did improve however that’s to be anticipated, as there are not any rewards with out threat. However he was extra affected person, chasing fewer pitches outdoors the zone and growing the stroll price from 11.3% to 14.7%.
So, right here’s my query? Why does he must regress? Why can’t he construct upon final season? It was his first yr using Driveline. That was 101. He might study new issues in Yr Two or simply higher apply what he discovered and skilled final season.
Crawford can be 6-foot-2 and 202 kilos, so there could also be extra untapped energy there. If he was 5-foot-7 and 175 kilos, then possibly I’d have some skepticism however then I consider Jose Altuve, all 5-foot-6 and 166 kilos of him. Early in his profession, he had an ISO at .100 or beneath. In 2015, it went as much as .146 then, in 2016, spiked as much as .194. He’s basically been a .200+ ISO hitter since, besides for 2 seasons. He additionally began pulling the ball extra but elevated the stroll price too.
Will Crawford take the identical trajectory as Altuve? In all probability not, however I feel it’s properly inside the vary of outcomes. A minimum of, the chance is larger than what most predict. Crawford is being drafted because the 304th participant in NFBC drafts since February. Final season, he completed 136th on the Razzball Participant Rater.
The chance/reward appears mighty favorable to me, since he’s priced at his flooring, but there’s an opportunity he exceeds final season’s numbers. Crawford received’t steal bases, which takes the shine off for us fantasy nerds, however he’s batting leadoff and may rating a ton of runs whereas accruing loads of plate appearances.
The expectation is for Crawford’s sequel to be a poor one. I’m a purchaser at these costs.