On this time of interchangeable elbow ligaments, we’ve largely turn out to be inured to the results of routine Tommy John surgical procedure. Pitcher blows out, pitcher will get stitched collectively like a beloved sock monkey, pitcher returns in 12 to 18 months.
If that have been at all times the case, Tommy John can be little greater than an annoyance. However it’s not at all times that easy. Generally, the pitcher wears out earlier than his UCL undergoes fast unscheduled disassembly. Generally there are half-measures — relaxation, PRP injections, what have you ever — that find yourself having no impact apart from prolonging the agony. Then there’s the timing of the damage and surgical procedure; go beneath the knife in September, and also you won’t even miss a full season. Present as much as camp with a threadbare elbow in February, blow out in late March, and also you would possibly miss two.
Two years in the past, I authored a submit expressing concern for one in all my favourite pitchers within the league, Rockies righty Germán Márquez. By means of the primary 5 seasons of his profession, Márquez had been sturdy, dependable, and — in opposition to all odds in Coors Area — efficient. However he was fairly horrible in 2022, with a Ok-BB% of simply 11.2 and an ERA of 4.95. The query I posed then was easy sufficient: Is the previous German Marquez nonetheless in there?
We’re nonetheless ready for a solution. Márquez suffered the dreaded April elbow blowout 4 begins into 2023, and whereas he recovered pretty shortly to return to the rotation in July of final 12 months, that return lasted solely 4 innings. Márquez’s new UCL was high-quality, however the pressure of pitching had induced a stress response in his elbow. That required a minimum of six weeks of day off of throwing, presumably extra; the Rockies shortly concluded that attempting to carry Márquez again in 2024 was not well worth the threat.
A part of my curiosity in Márquez’s story again then got here from his quickly approaching free company. He was simply six months from the open market when his elbow gave out, and whereas 2022 had been forgettable, he would have had a full season by which to rebuild his popularity. To say nothing of the weird potential he would’ve represented as a free agent: a 28-year-old, who’d been profitable in probably the most hostile developmental setting accessible to a younger pitcher.
As a substitute, Márquez took a two-year, $20 million contract to stick with the Rockies, and we’re proper again the place we began. A 30-year-old free agent pitcher isn’t fairly as engaging as a 28-year-old, however Márquez continues to be comparatively younger, and the value of free agent beginning pitching has solely gone up.
If Márquez is even marginally efficient this season, he’ll most likely get an eight-figure AAV from a GM who believes in his pitching coach. If he turns in something resembling his 2018 season — 4.1 WAR, a 28.2% strikeout charge, and 82 ERA- in 196 innings — the sky is the restrict.
On Tuesday, Márquez took the mound for the primary time since his stress response final July… and it wasn’t on TV. However we do have some restricted video highlights and Baseball Savant knowledge.
Seems high-quality to me. Compact, straightforward, brief arm swing, typical Márquez.
I’m inspired that Márquez’s common fastball velocity is again up into the 96-mph vary proper out of the gate, however to be trustworthy, I wouldn’t have been nervous if that weren’t the case. The primary spring coaching begin of the 12 months is usually a bit bumpy beneath favorable circumstances, and Márquez is 2 seasons faraway from his final constant main league motion and three seasons faraway from the final time he pitched successfully.
Nonetheless, that is encouraging.
Germán Márquez’s Launch Level
| 12 months | Vertical Launch Level | Horizontal Launch Level | Extension |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6.12 | -1.83 | 5.3 |
| 2022 | 5.95 | -2.22 | 5.5 |
| 2025* | 6.24 | -1.44 | 5.4 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
*Spring Coaching
Márquez was an All-Star in 2021; in 2022, when every thing unraveled, his arm angle dropped by six levels. Proper off the proverbial bat, he’s getting on prime of the ball extra. Márquez’s arsenal is slightly unorthodox: It’s loads of fastball velocity, however his breaking pitches each common within the mid-to-upper 80s and don’t transfer that a lot relative to their velocity. You possibly can truly see that within the above spotlight clip.
Márquez received Michael A. Taylor trying on an 0-2 pitch that the announcer struggles to determine. He guesses both a changeup or a sinker — happening video alone, I’d’ve mentioned a changeup — in actual fact it received tagged as a 91.2-mph backup slider. Generally, the very last thing a hitter expects to see is a lifeless duck breaking ball, and if it is available in that onerous it’s within the catcher’s mitt earlier than the batter can assume, “What the frig is that?”
Anyway, dropping that arm angle took away much more spin-based motion, and mixed with an over-reliance on his sinker — which opponents hit .342 and slugged .576 in opposition to in 2022 — that induced the entire home of playing cards to fall down.
Márquez solely threw 32 pitches over two innings, together with solely six sliders, 5 knuckle-curves, and a single sinker. Too quickly to attract conclusions, in different phrases. Although the person himself appeared comparatively comfortable together with his progress.
If the Rockies are aggressive this 12 months, I’d be shocked. Not solely is that this a 101-loss group that made no main additions, Colorado shares a division with 4 groups which can be going for it, with rosters that vary from strong to so good a bunch of individuals spent all winter agitating for a sport-killing lockout to be able to take them down a peg.
I’d say that if Márquez pitches properly, he may very well be a possible deadline commerce candidate, however the Rockies’ idiosyncratic approach of doing issues typically retains them out of midseason commerce motion. So let’s flip our eyes ahead to subsequent offseason.
I don’t know if it’s truthful to say that this was a weak free agent pitching class, nevertheless it was a bizarre one. There have been two latest Cy Younger winners on the transfer in Blake Snell and Corbin Burnes, along with Max Fried, who’s typically thought to be a powerful no. 2 starter.
However no person who hit the open market in 2024 put up greater than 3.7 WAR in his stroll 12 months. Even so, the three aforementioned pitchers all received north of $180 million in complete worth. Six others signed contracts with an AAV of between $21 million and $25 million; 12 extra signed for between $12.5 million and $17.5 million a 12 months.
Should you’re searching for a comparatively younger free agent who was dominant in his youth, then misplaced his contact, then got here roaring again in his stroll 12 months, it’s exhausting to consider a greater comparability for Márquez than Jack Flaherty, who received $35 million over two years, and was anticipated to obtain way more.
It received’t take a lot for Márquez to receives a commission like Flaherty, or Luis Severino, or Sean Manaea. He’s simply received to remain wholesome, and he’s received to remain on prime of the ball.
