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NFL Nation, ESPN
Week 17 began off with two highway groups, the Chiefs and Ravens, grabbing wins over the Steelers and Texans, respectively, on Christmas Day. The motion continues with a weekend stacked with nice matchups, and we now have you lined with what you’ll want to know.
Our NFL Nation reporters carry us the most important keys to each recreation, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. The ESPN Analysis crew gives an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection and a have a look at the playoff image. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy soccer X components, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us last rating picks for each recreation. Every little thing you wish to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.
Let’s get into the total Week 17 slate, together with a Ja’Marr Chase vs. Pat Surtain II matchup and an enormous NFC North showdown between the Packers and Vikings. All of it culminates with a “Monday Night time Soccer” matchup between the Lions and the 49ers on ESPN. (Recreation instances are Sunday except in any other case famous.)
Soar to a matchup:
LAC-NE | DEN-CIN | ARI-LAR
DAL-PHI | NYJ-BUF | LV-NO
IND-NYG | CAR-TB | TEN-JAX
MIA-CLE | GB-MIN | ATL-WSH
Thursday: SEA 6, CHI 3
Wednesday: KC 29, PIT 10; BAL 31, HOU 2
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NFL Community | ESPN BET: LAC -4.5 (42.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to look at: The Patriots’ protection may make it troublesome for the Chargers to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Quarterback Justin Herbert ranks twenty ninth of 33 qualifying QBs in QBR (46.8) in opposition to man protection this season. The Patriots’ protection makes use of man protection on the seventh-highest fee within the NFL (51.8%). If Herbert does discover success in opposition to New England and throws for 153 or extra passing yards, he’ll cross Peyton Manning for probably the most passing yards in a quarterback’s first 5 seasons in NFL historical past (20,618). — Kris Rhim
Patriots storyline to look at: Coach Jerod Mayo says the Patriots have had conversations concerning the position of playoff spoiler in opposition to the Chargers. “It simply goes again to whoever’s taking part in the perfect that day. What you probably did final week, or the week earlier than, actually does not matter, and that is the wonder about this recreation,” he stated. One potential concern for New England is at middle, the place starter Ben Brown is in concussion protocol. That might open the door for Cole Unusual to make his first begin on the place after opening his profession at left guard. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: With a loss, the Patriots will clinch a sub-.300 win share in consecutive seasons for the primary time in franchise historical past. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Chargers security Derwin James Jr. will report an interception. The three Patriots gamers with the best goal charges are slot receiver DeMario Douglas, tight finish Hunter Henry and tight finish Austin Hooper. Quarterback Drake Maye might want to ship some balls in James’ path. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chargers can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Patriots. They will additionally make the postseason if the Colts and Dolphins each lose to the Giants and Browns, respectively. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Accidents: Chargers | Patriots
Fantasy X issue: Henry. He has averaged 11.4 fantasy factors per recreation since Drake Maye took over because the beginning quarterback. In reality, Henry has seen at the very least eight targets in 4 of his previous 5 video games. In opposition to his former crew this week, count on him to be extremely motivated and a key participant in New England’s offense. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 8-15 in opposition to the unfold (ATS) after a loss because the begin of final season. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Chargers 30, Patriots 17
Moody’s choose: Chargers 21, Patriots 14
Walder’s choose: Chargers 27, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: LAC, 60.7% (by a median of three.9 factors)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Community | ESPN BET: CIN -3.5 (49.5 O/U)
Broncos storyline to look at: The Broncos actually hope cornerback Riley Moss could be again within the lineup for this one — he was a full participant in apply this week. Within the three video games since Moss sprained an MCL on Nov. 24 in opposition to the Raiders, Denver surrendered 30 factors or extra in two video games and gave up two of their three highest yardage totals of the season. Moss has been the best choice for the Broncos within the high-traffic place that’s reverse of Pat Surtain II. In opposition to a Bengals crew that has thrown the ball 226 extra instances than it has run it, the Broncos will want each choice in cross protection to clinch a playoff spot. — Jeff Legwold
Bengals storyline to look at: Ja’Marr Chase versus Pat Surtain II. It does not get higher than this. Chase is vying to change into the fifth participant because the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win the receiving triple crown, when a participant leads the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Surtain leads all cornerbacks in anticipated factors added when focused as the closest defender (negative-25.8), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. It will likely be a battle of the perfect in opposition to the perfect. — Ben Child
Stat to know: The Bengals are 0-7 in opposition to groups with successful data this season, which is tied with the Jaguars and Patriots for probably the most losses with out a win. Unusually, the Bengals have averaged 30.3 factors per recreation in these losses. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Surtain will enable fewer than 50 receiving yards to Chase. It takes a star to cease Chase, however that is precisely what Surtain is. He has allowed 0.5 yards per protection snap this season, which is the perfect amongst outdoors corners, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos can clinch a playoff spot with a win, which might be their first because the 2015 season, after they gained Tremendous Bowl 50. On the opposite finish, the Bengals can hold their slim postseason hopes alive (7% likelihood, per ESPN Analytics) with a victory. Cincinnati can be eradicated with a loss. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. He is the QB10 in ESPN leagues and attracts a positive matchup in opposition to a Bengals protection permitting the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. Along with his high goal, Courtland Sutton, Nix is in a main spot to ship in one of many highest fantasy totals of the week. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals have lined three straight video games, whereas 4 straight Broncos video games have gone over the whole. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Bengals 28, Broncos 26
Moody’s choose: Bengals 31, Broncos 23
Walder’s choose: Bengals 24, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: CIN, 57.2% (by a median of two.8 factors)
6:11
Breaking down the Chiefs and Bengals AFC playoff footage
Shannon Sharpe, Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky focus on the Chiefs’ quest for the 1-seed, in addition to the Bengals’ probabilities on the playoffs.
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | NFL Community | ESPN BET: LAR -6.5 (47.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to look at: Regardless that the Cardinals have been eradicated from playoff competition Sunday, quarterback Kyler Murray nonetheless has one thing to show. He has struggled since Arizona’s bye in Week 11 with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4-to-6 up to now 5 video games, by which the Cardinals have gone 1-4. Earlier than the bye, nonetheless, Murray threw 12 touchdowns versus three interceptions. He nonetheless has two video games left enhance and, as a minimum, even out his ratio. — Josh Weinfuss
Rams storyline to look at: Quarterback Matthew Stafford didn’t have a passing landing in Week 2 in opposition to the Cardinals. That was considered one of 5 video games this season by which he has not thrown a landing, probably the most in a single season in his profession, in accordance with ESPN Analysis. He has thrown only one landing cross up to now two weeks regardless of the Rams being on a four-game win streak. Since shedding to Arizona, Los Angeles has not misplaced a divisional recreation. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Tight finish Trey McBride has 92 receptions and nil receiving touchdowns. If this continues, will probably be probably the most receptions with out a landing in a season (earlier report was 86 by Diontae Johnson in 2022). — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Rams huge receiver Puka Nacua will report at the very least 139 receiving yards to cross the 1,000-yard barrier. His effectivity numbers are outrageous. He has been focused on 39% of his targets and is averaging 3.6 yards per route, each highest amongst huge receivers with at the very least 200 routes run. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams need to change into the primary crew to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after discovering themselves three video games underneath .500. They should win Saturday and clinch power of victory over Seattle to safe a postseason berth. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Rams operating again Kyren Williams. Nice issues occur when the Rams give Williams the ball. He had 24 or extra touches in three of his previous 4 video games and scored 18 or extra fantasy factors in every of these. Plus, the Cardinals’ protection provides up the seventh-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals have lined 4 straight video games as underdogs (6-2 ATS this season, 4-1 ATS as highway underdogs). Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Cardinals 27, Rams 25
Moody’s choose: Rams 27, Cardinals 16
Walder’s choose: Rams 34, Cardinals 21
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.2% (by a median of two.0 factors)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -7.5 (40.5 O/U)
Cowboys storyline to look at: Quarterback Cooper Rush shall be making the 14th begin of his profession and his third in opposition to the Eagles. The primary two didn’t go effectively. In his first begin changing Dak Prescott this season, Rush threw for 45 yards on 13-of-23 passing in a 34-6 loss to Philadelphia. In 2022, he was intercepted thrice in a 26-17 loss at Lincoln Monetary Area, which was his first defeat as a beginning quarterback. In his previous two begins, he has gotten the ball out shortly and never been intercepted. If the Cowboys wish to end scorching regardless of being eradicated from playoff competition, Rush has to keep away from errors. — Todd Archer
Eagles storyline to look at: The Eagles are coping with uncertainty at quarterback. Jalen Hurts has but to apply this week and stays in concussion protocol. Kenny Pickett injured his ribs whereas filling in for Hurts in opposition to the Commanders, however he has been capable of apply and stated Thursday he’s “able to go” in opposition to Dallas. He stated he’ll put on additional padding to guard his ribs. If Hurts cannot play, 2023 sixth-round choose Tanner McKee would assume the position of No. 2 quarterback behind Pickett. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons is a half-sack away from being the fourth participant to succeed in double-digit sacks in every of his first 4 seasons since particular person sacks have been first tracked in 1982. The others are all Corridor of Famers in Dwight Freeney, Derrick Thomas and Reggie White. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean will lead the league in tackles in Week 17. Dean is coming off 4 consecutive video games of double-digit tackles and ranks fourth amongst linebackers in run cease win fee. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles can clinch the NFC East division with a win or a Commanders loss to the Falcons on Sunday. This could mark the twentieth straight season the division has not had a repeat champion, which is the longest streak in NFL historical past. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
1:10
Stephen A.: Jalen Hurts’ damage a much bigger deal than Jayden Daniels’ huge recreation
Stephen A. Smith explains why Jalen Hurts’ damage was a much bigger headline than Jayden Daniels’ stellar recreation within the Commanders’ win over the Eagles.
Fantasy X issue: Eagles operating again Saquon Barkley is 268 yards away from breaking the league’s single-season speeding report. With the Cowboys’ protection rating twenty eighth in run cease win fee (27.8%), he has an opportunity to make historical past. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS of their previous 5 video games. They’re 5-12 ATS of their previous 17 video games as underdogs. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Eagles 33, Cowboys 24
Moody’s choose: Eagles 34, Cowboys 21
Walder’s choose: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 76.8% (by a median of 10.9 factors)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -8.5 (46.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to look at: There’s nothing on the road for the Jets, besides some particular person milestones: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers wants one landing cross to change into the fifth participant in NFL historical past to succeed in 500. Extensive receiver Garrett Wilson wants 13 receiving yards to hit 1,000 for the third straight season, one thing no Jets receiver has carried out since 1966-68 (George Sauer). Davante Adams wants 72 receiving yards to succeed in 1,000 for the fourth straight season and the sixth time up to now seven seasons. — Wealthy Cimini
Payments storyline to look at: Whereas Josh Allen had success in opposition to the Jets earlier this season, it’s a crew that has given him bother up to now. He has thrown 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 12 video games, however he has crushed them in eight of these conferences. A win over the Jets would increase Allen’s résumé for his first MVP award after Lamar Jackson‘s robust outing in opposition to the Texans on Christmas. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Payments are 23-5 in division video games since 2020, which is the second-best report in that span (Kansas Metropolis is 24-5). The Jets are 5-23 in division video games since 2020, which is the worst report in that span. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Jets defensive sort out Quinnen Williams will report at the very least three pressures. He ranks second in cross rush win fee amongst defensive tackles over the previous three weeks, however Allen is terribly arduous to sack. Therefore, the pressures — even when they do not lead to sacks. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Payments are now not within the operating for the No. 1 seed within the AFC after the Chiefs’ win over the Steelers on Christmas. However Buffalo can lock up the No. 2 seed with a win over the Jets on Sunday. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Adams. He has been on hearth currently, recording 11 or extra targets and 17 or extra fantasy factors in 4 straight video games. Now, Rodgers and Adams can take a look at their chemistry in opposition to the Payments’ protection, which is within the high 10 for many receiving yards and touchdowns to receivers since Week 12. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Payments are 7-0 outright at house. Six of these seven video games have gone over the whole. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Payments 33, Jets 20
Moody’s choose: Payments 34, Jets 23
Walder’s choose: Payments 30, Jets 12
FPI prediction: BUF, 71.6% (by a median of 8.5 factors)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LV -1 (37.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to look at: Derek Carr spent 9 seasons because the Raiders’ beginning quarterback however by no means had a rookie fairly like tight finish Brock Bowers, who wants simply 10 receiving yards to eclipse Mike Ditka’s 1961 single-season receiving yardage report (1,076 yards) for a rookie tight finish. Bowers already owns the single-season rookie tight finish catch report with 101 receptions and, with 4 catches in New Orleans, would surpass Rams receiver Puka Nacua‘s single-season rookie receptions mark. — Paul Gutierrez
Saints storyline to look at: Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi continues to say that operating again Alvin Kamara (groin) and Carr are week-to-week with their respective accidents. Carr, who has a fractured nonthrowing hand, has not practiced in a number of weeks however can be going through his outdated crew if he performed Sunday. The Saints, who have been shut out final week, need to keep away from being held underneath 10 factors in back-to-back video games for simply the second time since 2000. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Spencer Rattler has three straight begins with fewer than 175 passing yards. One other such recreation would make him the primary Saints quarterback to succeed in that mark in 4 straight video games since Steve Walsh in 1990. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Saints operating again Kendre Miller will rush for 90-plus yards. The Saints run outdoors zone 61% of the time, second most within the NFL. And whereas the Raiders rank 14th in EPA allowed per designed carry general, they rank twenty third when going through outdoors zone. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Raiders have a 1.3% likelihood to obtain the No. 1 choose in 2025 NFL draft, per ESPN Analytics, after holding 14% odds previous to their Week 16 win. A loss would enhance their probabilities to three%, whereas a win would give them much less then a 0.1% likelihood. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Raiders operating again Alexander Mattison. Mattison and Ameer Abdullah had an identical variety of touches in Week 16 with Honest McCormick (ankle) on IR. Now, they’re up in opposition to a Saints protection permitting the sixth-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. Each are on the flex radar in deeper codecs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 10-5 when Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell begins, together with 4-0 in his previous 4 video games. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Saints 20, Raiders 14
Moody’s choose: Raiders 19, Saints 18
Walder’s choose: Saints 19, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: LV, 57.2% (by a median of three.0 factors)
1:01
Why Brock Bowers is already a fantasy star in his rookie season
Eric Moody particulars the historic numbers Raiders TE Brock Bowers is placing up in his rookie season.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: IND -7.5 (40.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to look at: Quarterback Anthony Richardson is coming off a career-high 70 speeding yards in final week’s win over the Titans, a continuation of the crew’s current elevated dedication in his operating potential. Richardson’s speeding frequency has picked up since he returned to the beginning lineup in Week 11, going from averaging 6.83 rushes per recreation earlier than his benching to 9.0 since returning. Importantly, Richardson’s runs of late usually are not scrambles however sometimes designed runs; he has had 4 video games with seven or extra such runs in his previous 5 begins. — Stephen Holder
Giants storyline to look at: The Giants will attempt to finish a franchise-record 10-game skid with Drew Lock in once more at quarterback. Coach Brian Daboll thinks the continuity with Lock may assist as they’re additionally making an attempt to keep away from turning into the primary crew in NFL historical past to complete a season 0-9 at house. Rookie huge receiver Malik Nabers stated he desires to reward the followers who’ve come out to assist them this season with a victory. That is their final likelihood. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Colts set a franchise report with 335 speeding yards in opposition to the Titans final week, which can be probably the most by any crew in a single recreation this season. The Giants have the second-worst speeding protection, permitting 142.6 yards per recreation on the bottom. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Giants tight finish Daniel Bellinger will catch a landing. The Colts enable targets to tight ends on 22% of dropbacks, the third-highest fee within the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Colts may very well be eradicated from playoff competition earlier than they even play this Sunday if the Chargers and Broncos each win their Saturday contests. If that does not occur, Indianapolis would nonetheless be eradicated with a loss. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Giants operating again Tyrone Tracy Jr. He had 11 touches and 16.9 fantasy factors in Week 16, persevering with to indicate worth regardless of the ups and downs of the Giants’ offense. His receiving potential retains him related in fantasy. Additionally, the Colts protection has allowed the eighth-most fantasy factors per recreation to operating backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 6-1 outright and ATS in opposition to groups with shedding data this season. They haven’t closed as at the very least landing favorites since Week 1 of 2022. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Colts 21, Giants 17
Moody’s choose: Colts 28, Giants 19
Walder’s choose: Colts 23, Giants 17
FPI prediction: IND, 68.3% (by a median of seven.3 factors)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TB -8 (48.5 O/U)
Panthers storyline to look at: The Bucs had a season-high 236 speeding yards in opposition to the Panthers in a Week 13 win, however they nonetheless wanted a fumble by Chuba Hubbard in time beyond regulation to win it. Quarterback Bryce Younger accomplished 26 of 46 cross makes an attempt for 298 yards in that matchup. He enters this contest off a three-touchdown efficiency (two passing, one speeding) that made him one of many highest-rated quarterbacks in Week 16. — David Newton
Buccaneers storyline to look at: The Bucs now not management their very own future within the NFC South after shedding to the Cowboys final week. Revisiting fundamentals has been an enormous level of emphasis. The Bucs’ 12 misplaced turnovers since Week 12 is third most within the NFL, and a misplaced fumble by Rachaad White on the ultimate drive in opposition to Dallas doomed them, whereas a compelled fumble by Anthony Nelson that was recovered by Yaya Diaby in Week 13 arrange an time beyond regulation win at Carolina. — Jenna Laine
0:55
Area Yates: Chuba Hubbard has been an unbelievable story
Area Yates discusses the spectacular play of the Panthers and Chuba Hubbard.
Stat to know: Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield leads the NFC with 34 passing touchdowns. He’s seeking to be part of Tom Brady (40 in 2020 and 43 in 2021) as the one quarterbacks in franchise historical past with 35-plus passing touchdowns in a single season. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Bucs huge receiver Jalen McMillan will report a season excessive in receiving yards (76 or extra). He has 50-plus yards in every of his previous three video games. And at the very least a part of the time in opposition to the Panthers he’ll face Michael Jackson, who’s permitting 1.6 yards per route run — greater than common for an out of doors nook, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: Tampa Bay shall be eradicated from playoff competition with a loss and a Falcons win in opposition to the Commanders. If that does not occur, there are a number of eventualities by which Tampa Bay can clinch a postseason spot in Week 18, depending on outcomes from Atlanta and Washington. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Accidents: Panthers | Buccaneers
Fantasy X issue: Panthers huge receiver Adam Thielen. He has been excellent not too long ago, posting seven or extra targets and 15-plus fantasy factors in three of his previous 4 video games. His chemistry with Younger is simple, and this duo ought to exploit a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed huge video games to huge receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 6-0 ATS of their previous six video games as underdogs. They’re 6-1 ATS of their previous seven video games general. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 24
Moody’s choose: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 23
Walder’s choose: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 27
FPI prediction: TB, 80.1% (by a median of 12.8 factors)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TEN -1 (39.5 O/U)
Titans storyline to look at: The Titans scored touchdowns on all seven of their purple zone visits over the previous two weeks. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz stated the development got here principally from a simpler run recreation contained in the 20-yard line and fewer penalties. Tennessee’s streak of consecutive touchdowns contained in the purple zone began after going 0-for-2 in opposition to the Jaguars in Week 14. — Turron Davenport
Jaguars storyline to look at: Rookie huge receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has already set franchise rookie data in yards (1,088), catches (73) and receiving touchdowns (9). His subsequent landing catch will make him considered one of solely 5 gamers in franchise historical past with double-digit landing catches in a season. The one Jacksonville participant with greater than 10 landing catches in a season is Allen Robinson, who had 14 in 2015. — Michael DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars have a takeaway in 5 straight video games, which is tied for the longest such streak in franchise historical past. However their eight complete takeaways this season is the fewest within the NFL. No different crew is under 10. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Titans defensive sort out Jeffery Simmons will report a number of tackles for loss. He has recorded 11 on the season and ranks ninth in run cease win fee amongst defensive linemen. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars and Titans each have slim probabilities on the No. 1 choose, with odds of 10.1% and 5.2%, respectively, per ESPN Analytics. However they’re assured a spot within the high 10, and Jacksonville has an 85% likelihood of selecting within the high 5. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Titans operating again Tyjae Spears. In Week 16, he completed with extra touches and snaps than Tony Pollard, who’s coping with an ankle damage. Spears’ position within the Titans’ backfield is rising, and he has a positive matchup in opposition to a Jaguars protection that permits the second-most fantasy factors to operating backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS of their previous 9 video games. Over the previous seven seasons, they’re 7-15 ATS as house favorites. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Jaguars 20, Titans 12
Moody’s choose: Jaguars 17, Titans 14
Walder’s choose: Titans 22, Jaguars 19
FPI prediction: TEN, 59.4% (by a median of three.7 factors)
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -6.5 (39.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to look at: The Dolphins’ run recreation was resurgent in Week 16, with them speeding for 166 yards — their first time cracking 100 yards since Week 9. Maybe uncoincidentally, final week’s recreation marked the return of offensive guard Isaiah Wynn, who performed 34 offensive snaps in opposition to the 49ers. Wynn is anticipated to proceed to both combine in or dominate snaps at proper guard in opposition to a Browns protection that has allowed at the very least 100 speeding yards in all however two video games this season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Browns storyline to look at: In quarterback Tua Tagovailoa‘s first two seasons with coach Mike McDaniel, he posted the second-highest uncooked QBR (88.4) when going through Cowl 1. However that has modified in 2024; Tagovailoa has posted the third-lowest QBR (26.1) in opposition to the protection. That might play into the palms of a Browns protection that makes use of the best fee of Cowl 1 within the NFL. — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Browns huge receiver Jerry Jeudy had simply three targets final week in opposition to the Bengals, which is tied for a season low. His 72 receptions and 1,072 receiving yards on the season are already profession highs. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Dolphins edge rusher Chop Robinson will report at the very least one sack and change into the solo sack chief amongst rookies (he’s presently tied with Braden Fiske at 6.0). Robinson ranks eighth amongst all gamers in cross rush win fee (20.6%). — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins now have a 7.6% likelihood to make the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. They might be eradicated from postseason competition with a loss or wins by the Chargers and Broncos on Saturday. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Dolphins tight finish Jonnu Smith. He has been on a roll, with at the very least 11 targets in three of his previous six video games and 20 or extra fantasy factors in 4 of these. Whereas the Browns’ protection is common on the subject of defending tight ends, it is arduous to disregard his constructive momentum. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns are 4-11 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS of their previous seven video games and 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 video games. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Dolphins 28, Browns 24
Moody’s choose: Dolphins 30, Browns 20
Walder’s choose: Dolphins 20, Browns 14
FPI prediction: MIA, 54.1% (by a median of 1.7 factors)
0:52
Why Cockcroft likes streaming Colts and Dolphins defenses in Week 17
Tristan Cockcroft explains why he likes the Colts and Dolphins defenses going up in opposition to the struggling offenses of the Giants and Browns.
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -1 (48.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to look at: Quarterback Jordan Love struggled in opposition to the blitz within the first seven video games of the season, which included the Packers’ Week 4 loss to the Vikings, posting the third-worst QBR when blitzed throughout that span. Within the six video games since, he has a QBR of 97 in opposition to the blitz, which leads the NFL in that class. The Vikings have the best blitz fee within the NFL at 38%. — Rob Demovsky
Vikings storyline to look at: Sam Darnold is seeking to change into the primary quarterback in NFL historical past to win 14 video games in his first season with a brand new crew. If that occurs, and the Vikings sweep the Packers for less than the fourth time up to now 25 seasons, they will hold themselves on observe for an enormous Week 18 recreation at Detroit that might decide the No. 1 seed within the NFC. After struggling by way of a spate of midseason turnovers, Darnold has thrown 15 landing passes with one interception over his previous six video games. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: The Packers are 1-3 in NFC North video games this season. A loss would clinch their fourth season underneath .500 in divisional matchups since 2002 and their first since 2018. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Vikings edge Jonathan Greenard will report at the very least 1.5 sacks. Over the previous three weeks, Greenard’s 29% cross rush win fee at edge leads the league. — Walder
What’s at stake: Each groups are within the playoffs, however the Vikings can enhance their probabilities on the NFC North title Sunday. Their odds improve to 36% with a win and fall to 14% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. Minnesota can win the North both by successful out or by the Lions shedding out. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: Vikings operating again Aaron Jones. He has had a strong first season with Minnesota, averaging 18.3 touches and 14.5 fantasy factors per recreation. Now, he has one other likelihood in opposition to his former crew at house after scoring 17.9 fantasy factors at Inexperienced Bay in Week 4. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers have lined 4 straight video games, whereas the Vikings have lined three straight. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Packers 30, Vikings 27
Moody’s choose: Vikings 23, Packers 20
Walder’s choose: Packers 20, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: GB, 54.8% (by a median of two.3 factors)
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: WSH -4.5 (48.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to look at: Operating again Bijan Robinson‘s spectacular season has gone considerably underneath the radar, and Atlanta will want an enormous recreation from him in opposition to the Commanders. Robinson has the third-most yards within the league operating outdoors the tackles (885 yards with 9 touchdowns), whereas Washington has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.7) on such runs. — Marc Raimondi
Commanders storyline to look at: If Washington desires to win and safe its spot within the playoffs, it’ll wish to get its operating backs going. The Commanders have averaged 2.64 yards per carry the previous two weeks and can face an Atlanta protection that ranks ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.3). — John Keim
Stat to know: Michael Penix Jr. is searching for to change into the primary quarterback in Falcons historical past to win his first two profession begins. He gained in opposition to the Giants with out a passing or speeding landing, and a quarterback hasn’t carried out that in his first two profession begins because the Dolphins’ Damon Huard in 1999. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: Falcons huge receiver Drake London will report his second recreation with 100-plus receiving yards of the season. London enters Week 17 with an 80 open rating, which is tied for ninth amongst all eligible receivers. — Walder
What’s at stake: Each groups’ probabilities on the postseason may very well be affected by the Buccaneers this weekend. The Falcons can clinch the NFC South title and their first playoff berth since 2017 with a win and a Tampa Bay loss to Carolina. The Commanders can safe their first playoff look since 2020 with a win or a Bucs loss. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Accidents: Falcons | Commanders
Fantasy X issue: Commanders huge receiver Terry McLaurin. The Falcons’ protection has allowed the third-most fantasy factors per recreation to huge receivers, and it has actually struggled in opposition to perimeter receivers. McLaurin has been on hearth currently, scoring 17 or extra fantasy factors in 4 straight video games. Given the matchup, he has an actual shot at being the highest fantasy receiver this week. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: 4 straight Commanders house video games have gone over the whole. Six of the previous seven Falcons video games have gone underneath the whole. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Commanders 30, Falcons 28
Moody’s choose: Commanders 27, Falcons 23
Walder’s choose: Commanders 27, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: WSH, 60.5% (by a median of three.9 factors)
2:08
Adam Schefter breaks down Kirk Cousins’ Falcons future
Adam Schefter lays out the choice forward for the Falcons after benching Kirk Cousins.
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: DET -3.5 (50.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to look at: In a rematch of final season’s NFC Championship Recreation, receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is on the lookout for revenge after Detroit blew a 17-point halftime lead and missed its first Tremendous Bowl look. He described it as being “like a horror film” and one of many worst losses of his whole life. “I really feel like every participant that was right here final 12 months is aware of the sensation that we had final 12 months and we wish to go in there and hopefully come out with a W,” St. Brown stated. — Eric Woodyard
49ers storyline to look at: A lot has modified for the 49ers since these groups final met. The Lions have continued to ascend, whereas the Niners have taken a big step again. Since 2000, this would be the ninth time the groups that met in a convention championship recreation will play once more the next season. The house crew gained seven of the eight earlier instances. However with Detroit nonetheless preventing for the highest seed and carrying an ideal highway report, the 49ers will want an enormous turnaround to tug this off. One place they may begin? Producing turnovers. They’ve only one takeaway of their previous 5 video games (tied for second fewest in that span). — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Lions are 7-0 on the highway, which is their longest highway win streak in franchise historical past. They’ve misplaced 14 consecutive highway video games to the 49ers, although, together with the playoffs. — ESPN Analysis
Daring prediction: 49ers huge receiver Jauan Jennings will report at the very least six receptions. Thirty % of Lions’ opponent dropbacks lead to a goal to a slot receiver, which is the second-highest fee within the league, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Nobody has performed extra snaps from the slot for San Francisco this season than Jennings. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field benefit for the playoffs with a win and a Vikings loss to the Packers on Sunday. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Fantasy X issue: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. He bounced again in Week 16 with 21.1 fantasy factors, which helped erase the sting of his tough 3.9-point outing in opposition to the Rams in Week 15. He is in a terrific spot this week, going through a Lions protection that has given up probably the most fantasy factors to quarterbacks over the previous 4 weeks. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 9-2 outright and 8-3 ATS in prime-time video games underneath coach Dan Campbell. Learn extra. — ESPN Analysis
Kahler’s choose: Lions 40, 49ers 24
Moody’s choose: Lions 31, 49ers 24
Walder’s choose: Lions 31, 49ers 20
FPI prediction: DET, 61.8% (by a median of 4.5 factors)
