This week’s MLBTR Mailbag appears to be like at Ryan Helsley‘s worth, potential upgrades for the Giants, some Rangers commerce candidates, the Brewers’ infield, MacKenzie Gore‘s breakout and why he is a tough commerce candidate to examine, the Cubs’ bench, the Padres’ outfield and extra!
Let’s dive in!
Sam asks…
Given Helsley’s dip in efficiency this yr, would the Cardinals get extra future worth/prospects by buying and selling him or providing a QO? This questions assumes that the choice is made fully on boosting the farm system, not with any concerns for this yr’s group or the ’25 playoffs.
The idea there’s necessary, as I am under no circumstances satisfied the Cardinals will commerce Helsley given the style during which they’ve trounced preseason expectations from nearly everybody (myself one thousand % included). From a pure have a look at future worth, although, the extra prudent transfer to achieve future worth is to commerce him earlier than July 31. Holding him makes additional assumptions than the one you listed on this query; it assumes that Helsley will keep wholesome and that he’ll pitch properly sufficient to benefit a qualifying supply at season’s finish. Neither is a given.
Additional, there is no certainty that he’d signal a contract price $50MM or extra even when he rejects a qualifying supply. That is the edge wanted to safe a compensatory decide after the primary spherical of the draft. If Helsley signed for below $50MM, that comp decide would come between Aggressive Steadiness Spherical B and the third spherical, some 40 picks later.
If Helsley is wholesome and pitching properly, there is a good case for him to land that $50MM+, however we won’t assume he will get it. There have been situations up to now of relievers turning down a QO, looking for an enormous payday, and lingering in free company as a result of their preliminary ask was too excessive and since groups had exhausted their offseason budgets by the point that asking worth got here down. Cardinals followers needs to be fairly aware of this phenomenon; it is how Greg Holland landed in St. Louis again in 2018.
So, there’s plenty of presumption simply to get to the purpose the place the Cardinals choose within the No. 31-35 vary with the comp decide for Helsley — after which there’s the matter of truly drafting the right participant there as properly. There are apparent, bigger-picture advantages to including that decide’s slot worth to the group’s 2026 draft funds, however the easiest way to maximise that worth is to land a high-quality prospect there. Let’s run by way of the latest historical past of gamers chosen with QO compensation picks after the primary spherical:
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