The 2024 MLB All-Star Residence Run Derby is nearly right here — and the sector is ready!
Spots for probably the most anticipated baseball occasion of the summer time are actually full, and a number of the greatest names in MLB shall be duking it out at Globe Life Discipline in Arlington, Texas, on July 15 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
This yr’s Derby will characteristic some vital adjustments, most notably that the primary spherical will not be a head-to-head bracket — the highest 4 first-round scores will advance to the semifinal bracket — and that hitters will see a most of 40 pitches in every timed spherical, inserting extra of an emphasis on effectivity versus velocity.
We break down every participant’s probabilities as the sector is introduced, beginning with the primary star to decide to this yr’s competitors.
2024 residence runs: 27 | Longest: 430 toes
Why he might win: Have you ever seen what Henderson is doing this season? The sophomore shortstop is already on the verge of surpassing his 2023 residence run whole (28) in simply over half a season. The important thing to taking his energy to a brand new stage has been bettering his residence run-to-fly ball ratio from 19.3% final season to an MLB-leading 32.1% this season. Merely put, good issues occur when Henderson hits the ball within the air — and he’ll get loads of pitches to drive on Derby evening.
Why he won’t: Henderson’s Baseball Savant web page is a sea of crimson this season (that means he is above common in most classes) and he is at or close to the highest of each energy leaderboard, however there’s one quantity that would work towards him within the Residence Run Derby: the number one. As in, this shall be his first time collaborating within the occasion. We all know Henderson’s energy performs in video games, however some gamers are constructed for the trials of the Derby, and others will not be, and it is unattainable to know which class even the perfect sluggers slot in till they’re swinging below the intense lights.
Residence runs: 11 | Longest: 427 toes
Why he might win: The NL’s beginning All-Star third baseman, Bohm is within the midst of a breakout season that has include leaps in his fly ball (33.8% to 36.8%), pull (30.2% to 34.7%) and onerous contact (31.5% to 37.8%) charges — all issues that bode nicely for his probabilities in an occasion the place getting right into a rhythm of pulling the ball over the fence is a key to success.
Why he won’t: That breakout hasn’t translated into an increase in residence runs as he has simply 11 lengthy balls this season and his .192 ISO (a stat that measures a participant’s total energy output) is tied for forty second within the majors.
2024 residence runs: 18 | Longest: 446 toes
Why he might win: Alonso’s Residence Run Derby historical past speaks for itself: He received the occasion in 2019 and 2021, becoming a member of Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as back-to-back Derby champions. Positive, he received knocked out within the first spherical of final summer time’s occasion, however it’s onerous to select towards Alonso in any Residence Run Derby area.
Why he won’t: Alonso is within the midst of one thing of a down season, with a sub.-800 OPS and solely 18 residence runs in 87 video games after belting 40-plus every of the previous two years. One of many greatest culprits has been an increase in floor ball fee, which is one thing he cannot afford to see carry into the Residence Run Derby if he needs so as to add a 3rd title to his résumé in Arlington.
2024 residence runs: 15 | Longest: 468
Why he might win: You won’t consider Witt as a pure energy hitter, however he truly has some historical past in All-Star week residence run derbies: He received the highschool model at Nationals Park in 2018, so perhaps he can channel that components once more in Arlington. Up to now this season, Witt has been among the many finest within the sport at squaring up the baseball, rating within the 94th percentile in barrel share and 91st in hard-hit share with a mean exit velo of 92.7 mph.
Why he won’t: As a result of that is the Residence Run Derby and never a expertise competitors. If MLB held an occasion that mixed every part a participant can do on the sector, Witt can be one of many favorites to win it (together with Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz). Nonetheless, Witt’s 15 residence runs rank simply twenty ninth within the majors, and he’s going to should muscle a variety of balls out of the ballpark to hold with the larger-framed sluggers he’ll be up towards on Derby evening.
2024 residence runs: 23 | Longest: 446 toes
Why he might win: Ozuna has been considered one of few offensive vibrant spots on a Braves crew struggling a serious energy outage from final yr’s historic efficiency. His 23 residence runs are second within the Nationwide League — behind solely Shohei Ohtani — and his barrel share and hard-hit share have been elite this season to associate with a career-best 93.1 mph common exit velocity at age 33.
Why he won’t: Regardless of his huge numbers, there’s nonetheless a good quantity of swing and miss in his recreation — his swinging strike share is Fifteenth-highest in MLB this yr and his 31.9% whiff fee is in simply the tenth percentile of hitters. Ozuna has the ability to hold with anybody within the area, however he is received to be locked in to get to it.
2024 residence runs: 23 | Longest: 436 toes
Why he might win: Recognized extra for his contact potential than his energy, Ramirez is hitting residence runs on the highest full-season fee of his profession — and with out a strikeout fee according to his profession norms. If he can flip that into a gentle stream of line-drive residence runs pulled simply contained in the foul pole on Derby evening, the Guardians star might shock some larger sluggers.
Why he won’t: Ramirez stands at simply 5-foot-9, 190 kilos, and his 71.4 mph common unhealthy velocity ranks in simply the forty fourth percentile of main league hitters. Like Mookie Betts final summer time, Ramirez might discover that his energy performs higher in video games than it holds up within the Residence Run Derby.
2024 residence runs: 17 | Longest: 428 toes
Why he might win: At the beginning, home-field benefit. Garcia goes to have the house crowd on his facet Monday evening, and as we realized all through the 2023 MLB postseason, the Rangers slugger is greater than able to delivering on the massive stage at Globe Life Discipline. Although his energy output is down this season, he nonetheless hits the ball actually onerous — his max exit velocity of 116.1 mph is within the prime 2% of MLB hitters this season — and has sufficient energy to catch hearth on Derby evening.
Why he won’t: Garcia is within the twentieth percentile of MLB hitters in chase share and seventh percentile of hitters in whiff share this season, in keeping with MLB Statcast. With this summer time’s new Residence Run Derby format rewarding effectivity, Garcia’s aggressive strategy might spell hassle.
2024 residence runs: 19 | Longest: 431 toes
Why he might win: Hernandez has already hit the ball onerous. This yr, he has change into a breakout star by combining that with an elite 14.9% barrel fee and decreasing his strikeout fee. The components that has led to success in his first yr with the Dodgers additionally seems like a possible profitable recipe on Residence Run Derby evening.
Why he won’t: A diminished strikeout fee by Hernandez’s requirements continues to be one of many league’s highest: His 106 strikeouts this season are the ninth most of any hitter, coming a season after he struck out 211 instances, the third-highest whole within the majors. That swing-and-miss concern makes him arguably the largest boom-or-bust slugger on this yr’s area.