After the Mets’ record-setting spending did not deliver them even a successful document heading into late July of final season, the workforce as a substitute generated headlines by promoting as a substitute of shopping for, transferring Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and a number of other others in a wide range of offers previous to the commerce deadline. Because the Mets had been reportedly open to contemplating all choices on shorter-term expertise, the membership even had some discussions about transferring Pete Alonso, who’s a free agent this coming offseason. The Brewers and Cubs had been among the many groups that not less than checked in on Alonso’s standing, however clearly no deal was struck, and the Polar Bear stays in a Mets uniform to this very day.
The commerce explorations got here after, nevertheless, the Mets made an try to lock Alonso up for the rest of the last decade. Joel Sherman of the New York Publish studies that the Mets provided Alonso a seven-year, $158MM extension final June, which might’ve stored him in Queens by means of his age 29-35 seasons. In keeping with Sherman, “the perimeters by no means received near a deal,” which is why the Mets then shifted to not less than testing the waters to see what Alonso would possibly web on the commerce market.
The size and quantity of the Mets’ supply precisely matches the ultimate seven years of Matt Olson’s extension with the Braves, signed again in March 2022. Olson was two years away from free company on the time of that long-term deal, and the ultimate greenback determine was an eight-year pact price $168MM in assured cash, plus the Braves maintain a $20MM membership possibility for the 2030 season. New York’s supply to Alonso apparently didn’t contain a membership possibility, but it surely in any other case mirrored Olson’s deal minus the $15MM Olson earned in 2022 (the primary yr of the extension). Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Dodgers was one other comp, because the Mets’ supply gave Alonso extra precise cash than Freeman because of the deferrals concerned within the L.A. first baseman’s contract.
Olson and Freeman had been apparent benchmarks for Alonso as fellow star first basemen, and studies from final November advised that Alonso needs a “a lot greater” contract than both of these two offers. Within the least stunning information potential, Alonso’s agent Scott Boras feels the identical approach, as Boras instructed Sherman that Alonso’s market stands aside from different latest main first baseman contracts as a consequence of Alonso’s age (he’ll be 30 on Opening Day 2025) and since the dynamics of extensions and free agent offers differ.
“The marketplace for constant 40-homer, sturdy, infield-capable, true middle-of-the-lineup sluggers is the query,” Boras stated. “Be aware there are none obtainable in free company and none coming [in the next few years]. Plus, he’s New York confirmed, which is an unanswered query for a lot of others — not Pete. It’s elite-level sturdiness and manufacturing at a major age, which is solely one thing most MLB groups don’t possess. They’ll covet the chance to have free-agent entry to such expertise.”
It’s price noting that Alonso was a shopper of Apex Sports activities when he and the Mets had been negotiating that extension, and Alonso then modified illustration to the Boras Company after the season. With just a few notable exceptions through the years, Boras shoppers usually find yourself heading to the open market moderately than signing a contract extension, so it will rely as a giant shock if Alonso and the Mets agreed to a brand new deal this near Alonso’s arrival on the open market.
Alonso burst onto the scene with a 53-homer season in 2019, incomes each NL Rookie of the Yr honors and the primary of three profession All-Star berths (and the primary of two Residence Run Derby crowns throughout All-Star festivities). Naturally this made Alonso an immediate star in New York, and he has stored up the facility by hitting 202 homers and slashing .249/.340/.524 over his profession. These 202 homers is essentially the most of any participant for the reason that begin of the 2019 marketing campaign.
This season has largely been extra of the identical, as Alonso has hit .226/.307/.458 with 10 homers in his first 189 plate appearances of 2024. Nevertheless, Alonso is now in his second consecutive season with a below-average hard-hit ball charge, even when his barrel charge stays excellent. General, Alonso remains to be mashing the ball when he makes premium contact, however is having bother with something lower than a barrel, giving how his batting averages have declined — a .261 common in his first 4 seasons however solely .219 since. Past these numbers, groups may even have the same old considerations hooked up to giving any first-base solely participant a giant assured deal into his 30’s, and past the bat, Alonso’s protection is taken into account common at finest.
Leaving $158MM on the desk may loom massive for Alonso ought to he hit an prolonged droop that drags down his general manufacturing, or if he will get injured. (Although Alonso has been very sturdy over his profession, with solely two minimal journeys to the injured checklist.) There may be additionally the chance that this winter’s free agent market may considerably resemble the staid proceedings of this previous offseason, when a number of high free brokers — together with a number of Boras shoppers — needed to accept smaller offers than anticipated. If any of Alonso’s crimson flags develop into extra evident over the course of the 2024 marketing campaign, groups would possibly first try to see if they will wait out the market to see if Alonso might be had for the sort of short-term, opt-out heavy contracts signed by the “Boras 4” this previous winter.
Alternatively, an ordinary Alonso sort of season ought to present a really good platform, and the Polar Bear ranked fourth in MLB’s most up-to-date Energy Rankings of the 2024-25 free agent class. The primary baseman’s possibilities of scoring a deal nearer to $200MM than $158MM are additionally helped by the truth that Mets proprietor Steve Cohen has expressed his hope that Alonso will stay with the workforce over the long run, and Cohen hasn’t been shy about spending huge to acquire his most popular targets. President of baseball operations David Stearns will clearly have a approach in no matter course the Mets take with pursuing Alonso, but when Cohen is prepared to outbid the marketplace for a selected fan favourite, Alonso might need a selected edge that different free brokers don’t, relying on how aggressive the Mets shall be on gamers past Alonso.