Welcome to the final Matrix Reloaded of January, buddies! The offseason continues apace, whilst three qualifying-offer-tagged free brokers are with no staff and Nolan Arenado remains to be a Cardinal because the calendar flips to February. Let’s get to it.
Eight-Determine Free Agent Signings
Rays Signal Ha-Seong Kim for Two Years, $29 Million
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Rays
Proper now, this has no impact. Kim can be out till Might — at greatest — as he recovers from the shoulder surgical procedure he had on the finish of final season. Till then, Taylor Partitions and José Caballero will cowl shortstop, as they did final yr. As soon as Kim is wholesome, there won’t be room on the roster for each Partitions and Caballero since there are some redundancies between the 2, although Caballero might get a while within the outfield to provide supervisor Kevin Money some extra choices.
Impact on Different Groups
Even when he gained’t be prepared for Opening Day, Kim was one thing that no remaining free agent is: unequivocally a starting-caliber shortstop. Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias are good items who ought to play lots for whichever groups signal them, however they’re not guys you’d ideally need to give 4 or 5 plate appearances each single sport. Until the Twins instantly make Carlos Correa accessible or the Blue Jays promote (very) low on Bo Bichette, the commerce market doesn’t have apparent solutions for shortstop-needy groups both.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Kim was in a category of his personal due to his harm, so his contract has little impression on any remaining free brokers.
Blue Jays Signal Max Scherzer for One Yr, $15.5 Million
• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Blue Jays
If nothing else, Toronto’s rotation is wealthy with expertise. Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt have mixed for over 44 years of service time, with beginner Bowden Francis and his mere yr of service prone to spherical out the beginning 5. Scherzer’s signing most likely bumps Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen, giving the Blue Jays six succesful starters on the main league stage, with Alek Manoah due again someday down the stretch.
That depth is necessary to have for any staff, particularly so for the Jays since they actually don’t have a lot within the higher minors. For that purpose, it wouldn’t be a foul concept for them so as to add one other starter to the combination; they’ve expressed curiosity in Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta, the 2 greatest starters accessible.
Impact on Different Groups
The Blue Jays have been reported because the favorites for Scherzer the day earlier than he signed, so this pairing shouldn’t come as a shock for the opposite golf equipment who have been within the combine. And it shouldn’t be all that disappointing both. Scherzer turns 41 on the finish of July and is not the coveted ace he was for almost all of his profession; he’s a high quality veteran starter, however nothing extra. To be clear, groups want high quality veteran starters, however there are many these nonetheless accessible, equivalent to Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Kyle Hart, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull, Jakob Junis, and Cal Quantrill.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
AARP reductions apparently don’t apply to Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, and Alex Cobb, all of whom signed for a minimum of $14 million on one-year offers. Quintana, Gibson, and Lynn are all getting into their age-36 seasons or past, and $14 million needs to be an inexpensive goal for all of them, particularly with Cobb getting his payday coming off simply 22 MLB innings (together with the postseason).
Reliever Roundup
Royals Signal Carlos Estévez for Two Years, $22.2 Million
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Royals
Estévez is actually being paid nearer cash, and I’d guess that’s the place he’ll slot within the Kansas Metropolis bullpen even when Lucas Erceg has higher stuff and really pitched higher than Estévez down the stretch final season, after each pitchers have been traded forward of the deadline. No matter how precisely the video games are completed, Estévez offers the Royals one other high-octane reliever to associate with Erceg and Hunter Harvey. Facet-arming righty John Schreiber may also have a spot, as ought to curveballing lefty Sam Lengthy.
The Royals have a deep beginning workers, so it’s doable that they’ll go together with a six-man rotation to begin the season; that would go away simply two bullpen spots open for the likes of Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton (who’s on a assured contract however wasn’t good final yr), Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, and the out-of-options Carlos Hernández, amongst others.
Dodgers Signal Kirby Yates for One Yr, $13 Million
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Dodgers
In case you’re a fantasy participant, your mind might be spinning attempting to determine how Dave Roberts will dole out saves between Yates, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, and Evan Phillips. In case you’re Roberts himself, you’re thrilled with the embarrassment of riches within the bullpen. This unit is so deep that, as long as everyone seems to be wholesome, there actually aren’t any spots up for grabs to begin the season; as a result of Shohei Ohtani gained’t be able to pitch by then, the Dodgers can carry solely 13 pitchers, with six of these slots reserved for starters. That leaves seven spots for the aforementioned 5 aid arms, plus Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda. Certainly, this roster crunch is already on show: To make room for Yates on the 40-man, the Dodgers designated Ryan Brasier for project.
Ben Clemens included Yates in his write-up of the Tanner Scott deal final week, when Yates to the Dodgers was first reported. You possibly can learn that piece right here.
Tigers Signal Tommy Kahnle for One Yr, $7.75 Million
• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Michael Baumann’s Evaluation of Kahnle’s Postseason Changeup-Spamming
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Tigers
Kahnle provides a veteran face to a ragtag Tigers bullpen that didn’t have a set nearer for a lot of final yr and possibly gained’t once more. Like lefty Tyler Holton, Kahnle can get righties and lefties out because of his glorious changeup, and Jason Foley, Beau Brieske, and Will Vest ought to all issue into the late-inning combine as properly. That leaves three spots and a number of relievers competing to fill them, together with Sean Guenther and Brant Hurter, the unsung heroes of final yr’s playoff run, Kenta Maeda, who could possibly be boxed out of the rotation, and former nearer Alex Lange.
Mets Signal Ryne Stanek for One Yr, $4.5 Million
• Kiri Oler’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Mets
Stanek’s re-signing gums up the works for a Mets bullpen that already doesn’t have lots of flexibility. Edwin Díaz, A.J. Minter, José Buttó, and Stanek are locks to make the staff, as is Griffin Canning if he’s not within the rotation. Assuming a six-man rotation is used to restrict the innings of Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes, there could possibly be simply two bullpen spots left for a number of arms, together with final yr’s breakouts, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez, and three out-of-options relievers (Sean Reid-Foley, Dylan Covey, and Danny Younger). One thing must give, whether or not it’s a commerce or two or just ready to see how spring coaching performs out and what accidents pop up.
Which Relievers Are Left?
Reduction-needy groups are quickly operating decrease on choices, however there are nonetheless sufficient accessible relievers who ought to get main league offers to fill a complete bullpen or two. Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, and Kyle Finnegan might all signal on to be closers; righties Luis García, Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, Phil Maton, Joe Kelly, and Adam Ottavino are key middle-inning or setup choices; and lefties Scott Alexander, Tim Hill, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, and Jalen Beeks have all proven they will get righties out, too. Rehabbing arms Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Yency Almonte, Trevor Gott, Daniel Bard, and Keynan Middleton might all be components in a while within the season.
Seven-Determine Free Agent Signings
Mariners Signal Jorge Polanco for One Yr, $7.75 Million
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Mariners
Whereas the Mariners actually might’ve used extra impactful offensive strikes than simply bringing Polanco again and including Donovan Solano, their finances of round $15 million merely wasn’t going to permit for that.
There may be just a little little bit of room to squeeze one other bat onto the roster with out clearing another person’s wage, however for now the infield appears to be like roughly set. Polanco will begin at third (not second, the place he performed final yr), with J.P. Crawford at brief, a combo of Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss, and Solano at second, and the pure platoon pairing of Luke Raley and Solano at first.
Impact on Different Groups
The Astros have been reportedly in on Polanco all offseason, and deliberate to maneuver Jose Altuve to left subject in the event that they’d added him, which can also be the plan if they create Alex Bregman again to H-City. All consideration now turns again to Bregman and the Astros. The Astros need Bregman again, and there’s no purpose to imagine Bregman doesn’t need to be again. However a minimum of from the surface, neither facet appears any nearer to budging.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
The marketplace for bounce-back infielders isn’t fully picked clear simply but. Yoán Moncada and Anthony Rizzo each had extra injury-riddled seasons than Polanco, and Rizzo has struggled to supply ever since his concussion in late Might of 2023. It stands to purpose, then, that each will signal for lower than Polanco, and it wouldn’t be significantly shocking at this juncture if both or each of them need to accept minor league offers.
Reds Signal Austin Hays for One Yr, $5 Million
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Reds
In search of a bounce again of his personal, Hays is a pleasant match for the hitter-friendly Nice American Ball Park, however what this signing doesn’t do is settle the jumbled mess that’s the Reds’ roster. Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Hays was searching for “extra common” taking part in time after a tricky season in a platoon position for the Orioles and Phillies that led to his non-tender. So it stands to purpose that Hays will play towards each lefty and loads of righties. Hays is an outfielder who can play first base, however this staff has so many hitters that it’s exhausting to inform the place precisely he — and most of the others — will play.
Shortstop Elly De La Cruz, catcher Tyler Stephenson, and middle fielder TJ Friedl are locked into common taking part in time at a single place, however everybody else may be bouncing round. Hays, Jake Fraley, and the out-of-options Stuart Fairchild can play all three outfield positions; Spencer Steer can play all 4 corners in addition to second base; Matt McLain put up 3.1 WAR as a center infielder in 2023, however he missed all final season with a torn labrum after which acquired some outfield time within the Arizona Fall League final fall when he was lastly wholesome sufficient to return to the sector; and Gavin Lux’s precise place remains to be to be decided. Oh, and there’s additionally Jeimer Candelario, who performs each nook infield spots, first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and utilityman Santiago Espinal. New supervisor Terry Francona could have fairly the analysis on his arms come spring coaching.
Impact on Different Groups
Hays would’ve made sense for lots of groups as a comparatively younger (he’ll be in his age-29 season) former All-Star, however not each staff might have supplied the taking part in time the Reds apparently did, to not point out the house ballpark. Groups on the lookout for a lefty-mashing outfielder who can nonetheless maintain his personal towards righties might flip to Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha. Groups might additionally goal glove-first righty hitters equivalent to Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Grichuk had a much better season than Hays, so it stands to purpose that he should do higher than $5 million, regardless that he’s 4 years older and can most likely principally function the brief facet of a platoon. That’s as a result of he’s basically mastered that position; over the past 4 seasons, Grichuk has a 137 wRC+ towards lefties. The Crimson Sox, Pirates, and Giants have all expressed curiosity, as proven in blue on the Matrix. Canha, a high-floor, low-ceiling nook outfielder and first baseman, and Bader ought to get across the $5 million wage that Hays earned, and Taylor could need to accept a minor league deal after failing to make it by 2024 on the Pirates’ roster.
Padres Signal Elias Díaz for One Yr, $3.5 Million
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Padres
Díaz’s coming again into the fold ought to settle the Padres’ catching state of affairs, even when he’s the one catcher assured of a spot. Díaz could possibly be the starter, backup, or someplace in between relying on who else makes the staff. The three others within the combine are the previous prime prospect Luis Campusano, who was strong in a part-time position in 2023 earlier than struggling on each side of the ball final season, Brett Sullivan, who’s out of choices, and veteran Martín Maldonado, who’s in camp on a minor league deal. Campusano and Sullivan are each on the 40-man roster.
Impact on Different Groups
The marketplace for catchers acquired going fairly early; Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Carson Kelly, Gary Sánchez, Austin Hedges, and Jacob Stallings have been all signed by December 13. Díaz is the primary since then to signal a significant league deal. One of the best catchers nonetheless accessible, Yasmani Grandal and James McCann, might nonetheless conceivably get huge league contracts, whereas Luke Maile and Yan Gomes, who have been each properly beneath substitute stage final yr, will most likely need to accept minor league offers.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
That Díaz was launched by the Rockies midseason and nonetheless earned $3.5 million bodes properly for Grandal, who simply put collectively a sneaky 1.4-WAR season. He might maybe double the $2.5 million he signed with the Pirates final yr, when he was coming off a two-season span by which he mixed for -0.5 WAR.
Orioles Signal Dylan Carlson for One Yr, $975,000
• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Roster Projection
• Up to date Payroll Projection
Impact on the Orioles
Carlson’s deal is absolutely assured however at a really modest value. The truth is, that is now the most affordable free agent contract signed this offseason. (Congrats to Bryse Wilson for transferring as much as second least expensive!) That, mixed with the truth that he will be optioned to the minors, signifies that Carlson is just not assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster regardless of his main league contract.
Because it stands, Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser can be Baltimore’s beginning outfield, and DH/1B Ryan O’Hearn may get just a little little bit of taking part in time within the outfield corners as properly. That leaves one or two reserve spots for Heston Kjerstad, the out-of-options Daz Cameron, and Carlson. Carlson’s switch-hitting and talent to play middle subject may give him an edge, however Cameron can play middle as properly. Spring coaching could possibly be the deciding issue right here. Plus, Carlson is coming off three straight years of what Davy Andrews in his write-up referred to as “a spiral of harm and underperformance.” It’s doable that if Carlson, who remains to be solely 26, is absolutely wholesome for the primary time since he completed third within the 2021 Rookie of the Yr voting, he could possibly be a wonderful buy-low addition for the O’s. The most definitely state of affairs seems to be that he begins the season in Triple-A and turns into a league-average depth piece within the outfield. There’s worth in that, nevertheless it’s a far cry from what was anticipated of him throughout his days as a prime prospect within the Cardinals system.
Impact on Different Groups
There was no assure that Carlson would get a significant league deal after he put up an abysmal -1.0 WAR final season, and the opposite 29 groups nonetheless have loads of inner and/or exterior choices for reserve outfielders. This doesn’t have a lot if any impression outdoors of Baltimore.
Impact on Comparable Gamers
Bench bats are a dime a dozen, however switch-hitters aren’t. Sam Haggerty and Robbie Grossman are nonetheless on the lookout for jobs, however they’re each on the mistaken facet of 30 and can possible need to accept minor league offers.
Trades
Cubs Purchase Ryan Pressly, $5.5 Million from the Astros
• Esteban Rivera’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Cubs Roster Projection
• Up to date Cubs Payroll Projection
• Up to date Astros Roster Projection
• Up to date Astros Payroll Projection
The place the Cubs Go From Right here
Pressly would be the Cubs’ first big-name nearer since David Robertson was traded away in 2022, however his acquisition doesn’t essentially imply they’re out of the relief-pitching market. As proven on the Matrix in blue, they’ve expressed curiosity in a number of free agent arms, together with outdated buddy Robertson.
As issues stand, Pressly, Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Nate Pearson, and Caleb Thielbar ought to all have set roles, leaving two bullpen spots nonetheless up for grabs if the Cubs resolve to make use of a six-man rotation due to their glut of beginning choices. A few of these depth starters might additionally find yourself within the bullpen, although they wouldn’t essentially preclude the Cubs from signing a number of relievers if the precise deal happened.
The place the Astros Go From Right here
It’s pure for one’s mind to right away react to the Astros’ dumping $8.5 million of Pressly’s wage as offering a lane for an Bregman reunion, however the timing of the commerce may be extra coincidence than prerequisite. As Chandler Rome reported, Houston had been attempting to maneuver Pressly for many of the offseason.
Pressly’s departure makes the bullpen an apparent space for the Astros to improve, although for the reason that impetus of this commerce was to economize, any additions the Astros make there can be extra modest in nature. The emergences of Tayler Scott, Bryan King, and Kaleb Ort might assist make up for the lack of Pressly.
Reds Purchase Taylor Rogers, $6 Million from the Giants
• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Up to date Reds Roster Projection
• Up to date Reds Payroll Projection
• Up to date Giants Roster Projection
• Up to date Giants Payroll Projection
The place the Reds Go From Right here
We haven’t but heard from the Reds’ entrance workplace for the reason that commerce, nevertheless it wouldn’t be shocking to listen to that they really feel fairly good about their bullpen going into the season. Alexis Díaz, Rogers, Emilio Pagán, Tony Santillan, and Brent Suter will take up 5 of the eight spots, and Sam Moll ought to have the leg up for the sixth. After these guys, there’s a panoply of choices for the 2 remaining slots: hard-throwing hurlers Yosver Zulueta and Graham Ashcraft; innings-eaters Carson Spiers, Casey Legumina, Connor Phillips, and Lyon Richardson; and veteran non-roster invitees Bryan Shaw, Alex Younger, and Ian Gibaut.
The place the Giants Go From Right here
Whereas the Giants have been in a position to clear half of Rogers’ $12 million wage off the books, they’re ostensibly not going to reinvest that cash into the bullpen and even one other a part of the roster. That, nonetheless, might simply be posturing by president of baseball operations Buster Posey to keep up leverage in free agent talks; as talked about within the aid pitching bonanza above, there are many lefty arms on the lookout for jobs, and the Giants might signal one and nonetheless run a decrease payroll than they might’ve had with Rogers. Proper now, Erik Miller is the one southpaw projected to be within the San Francisco bullpen.
Rumors of the Week
• The Padres offseason has been very quiet to date — Díaz is the one free agent they’ve signed to a significant league deal — however issues might choose up a bit quickly. In accordance with Rosenthal, trades of both Dylan Stop or Michael King “stay in play” because the calendar hits February.
The Padres are attempting to string the needle of bettering their rotation whereas additionally reducing payroll, which is why they desperately needed to signal the cost-controlled Roki Sasaki. However now that Sasaki is a Dodger, buying and selling away a starter may be the greatest approach so as to add to their rotation. That sounds contradictory, however let me clarify. The Padres might commerce Stop and his $13.75 million wage or King, who on Friday agreed to a $4 million deal for 2025 that features a $3.75 million buyout on a mutual choice for 2026, and find yourself with two starters from buying and selling one away: one coming again within the commerce, and one signed with the associated fee financial savings. King’s new contract construction makes 2025 financial savings extra negligible than if your complete $7.75 million utilized to 2025, however that doesn’t imply the Padres wouldn’t commerce him if the precise provide got here round.
For instance (and these are completely speculative groups and names), the Padres might commerce one among their starters to the Orioles, Cubs, or Mets, with Dean Kremer, Javier Assad, or Tylor Megill coming again to San Diego within the commerce. Then, with the financial savings, the Padres might signal a less expensive arm like Hart, Quintana, Gibson, or Lynn, amongst others. The New York Publish’s Jon Heyman studies that San Diego might “think about” Flaherty or Pivetta if it sends a starter packing, although as issues stand, it looks like the Padres would have a troublesome time becoming both of these guys into their finances.
• Talking of Lynn, he won’t even signal as a starter! Rosenthal dispatches that some groups have an interest within the huge righty as a late-inning reliever, and the veteran appears lots open to the thought as a late-career pivot. His fastball-heavy method might work even higher when going through only some hitters, and possibly he positive aspects some velocity again after averaging 92.3 mph along with his heater final season, his slowest since 2017. We at present mission six bullpens at beneath 2 WAR (for comparability, the Twins lead the majors with a 5.2-WAR projection): the Angels, Marlins, Reds, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox.
