Males’s 2025 nationwide championship sport preview: Keys for Houston, Florida

After which there have been two.

Florida and Houston every performed sturdy in the course of the common season. Each dominated their convention tournaments. Each are 1-seeds. And each defeated powerful opponents to achieve Monday’s championship sport in San Antonio.

Now, every thing is on the road within the March Insanity finale (8:50 p.m. ET on CBS).

The Gators are in search of their first nationwide championship since their back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007 with Billy Donovan whereas the Cougars are searching for their first in program historical past.

For a remaining time this season, Myron Medcalf and Jeff Borzello break down every workforce, and decide which is able to lower down the nets.

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Florida | Houston | Predictions

How Florida reached the Remaining 4:

How can the Gators cope with Houston’s physicality? This has been the first query for each Houston opponent for the previous 11 years. Kelvin Sampson’s Houston groups have completed top-15 in adjusted defensive effectivity in seven of the previous eight seasons, which implies Florida’s bigs must be relentless in rebounding, attacking the paint and taking part in distinctive inside protection. Houston outscored Duke 19-12 on second-chance factors Saturday, and the Gators must shut that hole to win.

However this sport can also be about endurance. The Blue Devils had been exhausted by the top of Saturday night time — a byproduct of a grueling, 40-minute sport towards Houston. Florida wants its huge males to keep away from foul bother, problem the Cougars across the rim on offense and protection and have the stamina to play an intense tempo for 2 halves. It is a daunting activity that just one workforce has achieved since Nov. 30 towards Houston.

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What sort of problem is Florida dealing with vs. Houston?

Seth Greenberg previews Florida’s matchup vs. Houston for the nationwide title.

Who should step up for Florida? Will Richard. The listing of standout guards Houston has held to shaky offensive performances in March is lengthy: Robert Wright III (Baylor), Julian Hammond III (Colorado), Egor Demin (BYU), Braden Smith (Purdue), Zakai Zeigler (Tennessee) and Tyrese Proctor (Duke). Walter Clayton Jr. may very well be added to that group Monday.

However the Gators should not a one-man present. Richard is the one member of Florida’s beginning backcourt who has had three single-digit efforts over the previous 5 video games. The 6-foot-4 senior made 38% of his pictures from past the arc in league play, however was 0-for-5 from the 3-point line in his earlier two video games. That each one has to alter Monday night time. Duke and its three projected lottery picks and the nationwide participant of the 12 months wanted extra assist towards Houston, even after it had a 14-point lead. Richard must contribute.

The Gators’ potential deadly flaw: Giving opponents too many alternatives on the free throw line. Florida was a top-25 defensive workforce over the ultimate month of the season. It is a key aspect of its comebacks all through the NCAA event. However the Gators have additionally dedicated too many fouls lately. 9 of their previous 11 opponents had no less than 22 free throw makes an attempt. Houston benefited Saturday night time from a few pricey fouls by Duke, making 4 essential free throws within the remaining seconds. That might occur once more Monday night time if the Gators put the Cougars on the free throw line too usually.

Florida will win if … Walter Clayton Jr. scores 25 factors or extra. Due to the best way Florida performs and the way a lot it depends on Clayton as a ball handler, the Gators will solely go so far as he takes them. When he’s a potent scorer and playmaker, opponents are pressured to double him, creating extra alternatives for his teammates. The Gators will face one of the best protection in America and though they’ve overcome almost unimaginable odds within the NCAA event, Houston’s Saturday night time comeback over Duke was nearly unprecedented. If Clayton will get sizzling Monday night time, it’s going to possible imply the Gators — ranked second within the nation in adjusted offensive effectivity — are rolling and have discovered the holes in that vaunted Houston protection. If he struggles, it’s going to complicate every thing Florida desires to do towards Houston, particularly if the Gators have one other second-half deficit standing between them and their title desires. — Myron Medcalf

How Houston reached the Remaining 4:

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Duke falls to Houston in chaotic ending

Houston takes down Duke after a chaotic ending involving a missed Cooper Flagg jumper and foul, with Tyrese Proctor developing brief on a last-second heave.

How can the Cougars comprise Walter Clayton Jr.? If anybody’s going to decelerate Walter Clayton Jr., it will likely be one of the best protection in faculty. Houston is extremely bodily, each on and off the ball, and would not make something simple for opponents. The Cougars will possible look to disclaim Clayton simple catches in rhythm, and ensure he would not get clear seems to be.

However Clayton did not have a ton of fresh seems to be towards Texas Tech or Auburn and nonetheless put up traditionally good performances. One space to look at would be the 3-point line. Houston has a robust 3-point protection, but it surely permits 3-point pictures. That is not a recipe for stopping Clayton.

Who should step up for Houston? That is one other doubtlessly huge sport for J’Wan Roberts. He ought to enter with loads of confidence after making the largest performs within the remaining seconds towards Duke: boxing out Cooper Flagg to attract the foul, making two free throws, and contesting Flagg’s potential game-winning shot. He was inconsistent over the previous month or so, and in addition missed two video games due to an ankle damage.

He’ll should be at his greatest towards Florida and its elite frontcourt. Which means being lively and aggressive on the offensive glass and staying out of foul bother on the different finish of the ground. The Gators have measurement and depth to throw at Houston on Monday night time, and Roberts has to remain on the ground.

The Cougars’ potential flaw: Houston would not have many weaknesses. However two areas to look at would be the free throw line, and whether or not the Cougars can keep away from the offensive droughts that just about dug them too huge a gap towards Duke. Houston was twelfth out of 16 Huge 12 groups in defensive free throw fee and 14th in offensive free throw fee. The Cougars averaged fewer free throw makes an attempt per sport than their opponents.

Florida is not good at attending to the free throw line — and is even worse at making these pictures — but when the officers aren’t letting Houston be bodily and gamers comparable to Clayton and Will Richard and Thomas Haugh are attending to the road, that is unhealthy information for the Cougars.

In the meantime, L.J. Cryer single-handedly stored Houston inside placing distance Saturday, hitting a number of 3s towards the Blue Devils — however did not get a lot assist from his teammates till late within the second half. It is laborious to see that working once more.

Houston will win if … It wins the struggle on the backboards and limits Clayton. Luckily for the Cougars, each are within the wheelhouse of a Kelvin Sampson-coached workforce. The Cougars are the most effective offensive rebounding groups within the nation — it is a huge spot for Roberts and Joseph Tugler — rating tenth in offensive rebounding proportion and the highest 20 in second-chance factors per sport. (Although Florida is large and even higher at offensive rebounding, statistically.)

On the different finish, Houston’s guards must persist with their rules towards Clayton. Auburn had some early success blitzing him on ball screens and forcing the ball out of his fingers, however as the sport wore on, he persistently acquired to his left hand and right into a rhythm. Houston will possible have the identical concepts, going over ball screens, hard-hedging, blitzing to get the ball out of Clayton’s fingers and ensuring he would not get a clear look. — Jeff Borzello

Florida vs. Houston predictions

Jeff Borzello: Houston wins, 67-65
Myron Medcalf: Houston, 70-67