Presently two years in the past, Tyler O’Neill was seen as a future cornerstone of the Cardinals outfield. O’Neill had proven flashes of his top-100 prospect potential over his first three MLB seasons, however it seemingly all got here collectively for the Canadian in his age-26 season, when he hit .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers over 537 plate appearances and delivered Gold Glove-winning protection in left area. This all-around efficiency translated to a 5.5 fWAR that topped by solely 13 gamers within the sport, and O’Neill completed eighth in NL MVP voting.
Unsurprisingly, O’Neill and the Cardinals had some talks a couple of multi-year contract extension through the 2021-22 offseason, although it wasn’t recognized if the 2 sides floated a deal to cowl simply O’Neill’s arbitration years or past. (The Playing cards subsequently gained an arb listening to in opposition to O’Neill that resulted in a $3.4MM wage for the outfielder in 2022, slightly than his desired $4.15MM determine.) Given how the following two seasons performed out for O’Neill, St. Louis might need caught a break by not agreeing to a long-term deal, although it’s protected to say that neither aspect was notably glad with the outfielder’s outcomes through the 2022-23 seasons.
O’Neill has hit solely .229/.310/.397 with 23 dwelling runs over 649 PA since Opening Day 2022, good for a barely below-average 98 wRC+. The important thing statistic there could be the plate appearances, or lack thereof — O’Neill performed in simply 168 of a potential 324 video games because of a number of accidents. A hip impingement and a hamstring pressure restricted him to 96 video games in 2022, after which a decrease again sprain and a foot sprain led to extra injured record time in 2023 and solely 72 appearances.
Accidents additionally hampered O’Neill previous to 2021, thus making him a difficult participant to correctly consider. Does that profession yr serve for example of what O’Neill can do if he can ever keep wholesome, or was even that enormous 2021 marketing campaign maybe one thing of an outlier even past O’Neill’s lack of time on the IL? A hefty .366 BABIP places one thing of an asterisk on O’Neill’s 2021 numbers, even permitting for the truth that his pace and baserunning capability helped him naturally flip just a few additional grounders into base hits. His stroll fee was additionally effectively under the league common in 2021, although curiously, O’Neill posted far more stable stroll numbers in 2022-23, in addition to the 2020 season.
The quantity that has stayed constant, sadly for O’Neill, is his strikeout fee. Since making his MLB debut in 2018, O’Neill’s 30% strikeout fee ranks seventh amongst all batters with no less than 1600 PA. Whereas his Okay% has gotten higher in every of the final two seasons, all of this swing-and-miss in O’Neill’s strategy has curbed his effectiveness on the plate and made him one thing of a one-dimensional hitter.
It most likely additionally hasn’t helped that O’Neill spent a lot of the 2023 season listening to his identify in commerce rumors. Between the Cardinals’ outfield depth and his down yr in 2022, O’Neill all of a sudden appeared to grow to be expendable, even when St. Louis was naturally nonetheless placing a major asking worth on his companies. It isn’t recognized what presents the Playing cards may’ve acquired for O’Neill on the time or what trades might need been floated or severely mentioned, but in 20-20 hindsight, St. Louis may’ve been higher served in shifting O’Neill whereas his commerce worth was a little bit larger.
The outfielder’s tough 2023 season solely diminished that worth, and the yr acquired off to an instantaneous awkward begin when O’Neill was benched for a sport for what supervisor Oliver Marmol felt was an absence of baserunning effort the earlier evening. That state of affairs appeared like a harbinger for the tip of O’Neill’s time with the group, but he Cardinals ended up retaining O’Neill on the commerce deadline even by the struggling membership made another sell-off strikes.
A commerce didn’t materialize till December, when the Purple Sox landed O’Neill for pitching prospects Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Baseball America ranks Robertson because the Twenty fifth-best prospect within the St. Louis farm system and he made his MLB debut in 2023 with the Dodgers, but the commerce return must be thought-about a little bit of a disappointment for the Playing cards contemplating what the return might need been for O’Neill even final offseason. From Boston’s perspective, in fact, the deal might be seen as an intriguing buy-low state of affairs. The Royals and (O’Neill’s former staff) Mariners had been two of the opposite groups publicly linked to O’Neill’s commerce market, and it’s protected to imagine that a number of different groups checked in with the St. Louis entrance workplace.
Well being is clearly the most important x-factor for O’Neill going ahead, but Fenway Park is a reasonably good touchdown spot for a participant trying to regain his hitting stroke. It’s simple to think about O’Neill all of a sudden launching just a few homers over the Inexperienced Monster, although that very same wall may also present an fascinating problem to O’Neill in his common function as the brand new Sox left fielder. After successful Gold Gloves in each 2020 and 2021, O’Neill’s defensive numbers had been a lot nearer to common over the past two seasons, so he’ll even be on the lookout for a rebound within the area in addition to on the plate.
O’Neill turns 29 in June, and he’ll be a free agent following the 2024 season. He’ll have all the chance on the planet with a Purple Sox staff that appears to be one thing in a state of flux between partially rebuilding and attempting to legitimately contend, and it may be argued that purchasing low on a latest MVP candidate might be slotted into both path. One other yr of struggles may restrict O’Neill’s ceiling to platoon roles and one-year offers going ahead, but if he can keep away from the IL and present something near his 2021 season offensively or defensively, a pleasant multi-year contract might be in offing subsequent winter.