On Monday night time in Los Angeles, Shohei Ohtani made his first main league begin for the Dodgers. For every other starter signed earlier than the 2024 season, that will be a disastrous sentence to sort. Ohtani, after all, turned the constitution member of the 50/50 membership, received the Nationwide League MVP, after which helped his staff win the World Collection. However he got here to the Dodgers to hit and pitch, not simply to play DH, and final night time marked a key step in that course of, his first sport motion as he rehabs from a 2023 elbow surgical procedure.
I watched each pitch of Ohtani’s one-inning outing to compile a report. Clearly, these are the observations of an information analyst, not a scout. I’ve supplemented them with the Statcast and pitch mannequin knowledge generated in a single day. I’m not the sort to disregard the numbers, however realistically talking, 28 pitches isn’t sufficient for an actual pattern, so the info is extra supporting than main. I’ll begin with my first impressions, stroll via every of the 4 pitch sorts Ohtani threw, after which share some normal conclusions.
First Impression
Ohtani was giving rusty high-leverage reliever vibes to me proper from the beginning. He opened the sport sitting 98 mph and leaning fastball-heavy, with 9 of his first 10 pitches sinkers or four-seamers. He appeared dissatisfied along with his fastball command, yanking a number of to his glove facet, and picked up his sweeper utilization thereafter. He ended up throwing extra sweepers than anything, although that’s partially as a result of he break up his fastballs into two varieties. He labored out of the stretch after the primary batter he confronted and displayed mechanics that, to my eye, had been the identical as his pre-injury supply. Nonetheless, he did not work out his command jitters, and his fastball wasn’t the one pitch that he saved pulling too far glove facet. Check out the chart:
That mentioned, we will nonetheless glean some perception into his combine (even when quite a lot of his pitches ended up within the left-handed batter’s field) and see if Ohtani has modified something about his general sport for the reason that final time he pitched.
Sweeper
Depend: 10
Velo: 84-88 mph, topped out at 89
Common Motion: +6.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical
Ohtani’s sweeper was his finest pitch in 2023 any means you slice it, and for my cash, it seems to be no worse for the layoff, and perhaps even higher. It’s a real sweeper, with plus horizontal break. It’s too quickly to say something about Ohtani’s eventual arsenal with authority, however he’s added two to a few ticks to his sweeper since 2023 and hasn’t sacrificed a lot of its chunk in doing so. Manny Machado managed to get a bat on this one, however you possibly can see each the velo and motion:
That’s the nice case, and PitchingBot agrees with my evaluation, giving Ohtani’s slider a 77 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Stuff+ was effusive as effectively, giving it a 143 (100 is common), larger than in any earlier full season of his profession. Uh, yeah, that’ll play. However whereas the highs had been very excessive, Ohtani’s sweeper location was inconsistent. He hung a couple of, most notably middle-middle on the primary pitch to Machado. He yanked a pair too far to his glove-side, although he and Will Smith had been sensible about attempting these sweepers in counts the place bouncing one or sending it broad had been acceptable outcomes.
Command is a tough factor to regain, and I didn’t count on to see it from Ohtani in his first begin again. His really feel for the pitch was higher than I anticipated, in actual fact. The Padres made contact on 5 of their six swings, however three of these had been on poorly situated choices and the opposite two had been Machado taking lunging swings outdoors the strike zone to place a bat on it.
4-Seam Fastball
Depend: 9
Velo: 98-99 mph, topped out at 100
Common Motion: -3.3 inches horizontal, +8.0 inches vertical
Ohtani’s four-seamer was piping scorching final night time, sitting within the higher 90s and topping 100 when he reached again for further. Sadly, he had little or no command of it. The highest line is nice – two swinging strikes in 9 pitches! However, effectively, right here’s one in all them:
I’m actually unsure what Luis Arraez was pondering there, however “I’ll take this pitch if it’s a ball” definitely wasn’t a part of it. That four-seamer appeared like quite a lot of Ohtani’s misses with the pitch. He stayed on every thing too lengthy, and solely managed to land two of his 9 four-seamers within the strike zone, with the opposite seven all off the sting in the direction of the left-handed batter’s field. His lack of ability to identify the pitch clearly annoyed him, and he used it much less because the inning wore on.
Location shakiness apart, that’s a superb pitch. It has loads of life, and clearly the speed doesn’t damage. In pitch mannequin phrases, PitchingBot says it has 63 stuff however actually 20 location, and I’ve a tough time arguing with both of these. Stuff+ had it at 98 stuff (I disagree) and 68 location (certain). Command usually takes longer to return after rehab, and Ohtani’s rehab is unquestionably probably the most difficult in historical past due to the truth that he’s additionally hitting at an elite stage whereas doing it. Lastly, right here’s a four-seamer within the zone so you possibly can see the way it seems to be when it’s not at ankle peak:
Sinker
Depend: 8
Velo: 97-98 mph, topped out at 99, dropped to 95 late
Motion: -9.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical
Ohtani added a sinker on the finish of 2022, however he didn’t use it a lot both that yr or the subsequent. Time will inform how a lot he integrates it into his arsenal this yr, however within the early going, he had meaningfully higher really feel for it than his four-seam fastball. He opened the sport with a trio to Fernando Tatis Jr., however I can’t fairly observe the plan after that – he threw extra sinkers to the 2 lefties he confronted than the 2 subsequent righties, which isn’t normally the way you’d draw it up.
Whereas the utilization was complicated, I believed the pitch appeared nice. Not like his four-seamer, he had an affordable really feel for location with the two-seam selection. I used to be jotting down how impressed I used to be with this pitch whilst Arraez turned it round for a single:
That’s why you don’t throw a sinker to a lefty; the form and Arraez’s pure need to swing mixed poorly for Ohtani there. However that’s one end result, towards one distinctive hitter, and he was capable of hold the ball low and across the plate, with much more contact than his four-seamer. It’s a heavy sinker, too, with three inches extra drop than its comparables.
Earlier than this yr, Ohtani’s sinker was nothing greater than an afterthought. He threw it 6% of the time in 2023, and that was his profession excessive, what with him having developed it in late 2022 and all. I’m unsure whether or not the utilization is means up as a result of he’s nonetheless regaining confidence in his secondaries or whether or not it’s right here to remain, however fairly frankly, I believe it may be his finest fastball proper now. The fashions agree, with PicthingBot giving it a 70 and Stuff+ a 113, each elite numbers for a sinker. Mixing fastball varieties relying on depend and handedness is all the trend, and Ohtani appears to have added to his capability to take action throughout his rehab.
Splitter
Depend: 1
Velo: 91 mph
Motion: -7.8 inches horizontal, +1.0 inches vertical
Nothing to see right here, people. Ohtani threw one splitter, in an 0-2 depend, and spiked it:
I’ve to say, that appeared fairly although it didn’t draw a swing. A couple of inches larger on the preliminary trajectory, and Gavin Sheets may nonetheless be pinwheeling from a swing. But additionally, sure, the ball bounced, and Ohtani gave a little bit sigh of annoyance after throwing it, in case you’re curious how he felt about it.
I’m hesitant to present you my visible impressions of a pitch with only one to take a look at, notably a splitter, which by its very nature has a wide-ranging motion profile. One factor I can say for sure is that Ohtani threw it 91 mph, however I can’t even inform you how notable that’s. His splitter velo vary in 2023 was 83-95; he’s all the time been able to dashing it up or slowing it down as applicable.
I’ll be searching for both extra splitters or some cutters the subsequent time Ohtani pitches, so we will get a greater concept of the state of his full vary of choices. However in a one-inning burst, in his first time again on an enormous league mound in fairly some time, I believe his strategy was affordable: deliver the pitches you belief most, perhaps throw in a splitter or two in case you get a terrific depend to go looking for a strikeout, however largely keep on with your bread and butter. I received’t hassle with the mannequin grades right here; once more, it was one pitch.
Basic Conclusions
Ohtani appeared like a superb starter getting back from surgical procedure. Whether or not he was simply amped for the sport, reached again for a little bit further in a brief stint, or has added lasting velocity throughout the board is an open query, however I’d guess that it’s largely a combination of the primary two. He had visibly drained by the tip of the 28-pitch inning and guided the previous couple of sinkers in. As he works as much as longer begins, I count on his common pitch velocity will decline throughout the board, with the attainable exception of his sweeper; I believe he’ll nonetheless hit triple digits along with his fastball, however sparingly.
Clearly, Ohtani struggled with really feel in his outing. The host of glove-side misses suggests to me that he’s nonetheless getting used to his new supply and new elbow at most effort. I don’t have arm angle knowledge but, however although his movement seems to be similar to my eye, he’s releasing each pitch decrease this yr. Many pitchers drop their slot barely whereas they ramp up after UCL reconstruction, and whereas Ohtani had a barely totally different surgical procedure, it will hardly be stunning to see him observe the identical pattern.
Ohtani appeared aggravated on the misses, however in any other case didn’t look like laboring on the mound in any respect, one thing I all the time control when pitchers are adapting again to sport pace. He took an ungainly step off the mound when he thought he’d must cowl first on a grounder, nevertheless it didn’t seem to have an effect on him in any respect, and he vehemently declined the supply of a coach’s go to.
Total, I believed Ohtani appeared wonderful. Command is hard to get proper shortly; it takes quite a lot of time and quite a lot of pitches. Stuff is extra steady, extra predictive, and Ohtani definitely isn’t lacking stuff. His sweeper has chunk. His sinker, particularly, appeared superior to me. He hit 100 when he reached again for it and flashed good location every so often whilst he battled his command. One inning doesn’t show something, however outcomes apart, I believed this was a superb, albeit rusty, outing.
