Juan Soto Is Getting Pitched the Similar Method as All the time (Rigorously)

First impressions are every little thing, the expression goes, and a poor one may have doomed Juan Soto’s 2024 season. The Yankees dealt 5 high quality gamers for one 12 months of his companies; a gradual begin within the Bronx would have invited the wrath of tabloids and followers alike. However Soto began with a bang, gunning down a runner at residence plate to protect a ninth-inning lead in his debut and occurring to hit .325/.438/.561 in his first month as a Yankee. From day one, he was plain.

This time round, he hasn’t been as fortunate. Soto stays in New York, albeit in a unique borough, and he’s contemporary off signing the biggest contract in skilled sports activities historical past. By these requirements, his begin this season is underwhelming. His batting line is 25% above league common, however the form of his manufacturing is actually Soto at his least productive: tons of walks, a number of too many groundballs, and never a lot additional base harm. The quasi-slow begin prompted a story written by The New York Submit’s Mike Puma headlined “Juan Soto opens as much as The Submit about pitchers’ new method with out ‘the most effective hitter in baseball’ behind him.”

“It’s positively completely different,” Soto instructed Puma previous to final Monday’s recreation. “I had the most effective hitter in baseball hitting behind me. I used to be getting extra attacked and extra pitches within the strike zone, much less intentional walks and issues like that. I used to be pitched otherwise final 12 months.”

This quote led to a whole lot of silliness, together with a follow-up column in The Submit headlined “Juan Soto ought to have stored his feedback about Aaron Choose, Mets’ lineup safety to himself,” in addition to unhinged segments on native sports activities discuss radio. However I additionally questioned to what extent Soto’s assertion was true.

In principle, it is sensible: Choose might be the most effective hitter of the post-integration period. Pete Alonso, who usually hits behind Soto within the Mets’ lineup, is a mere mortal by comparability, albeit a mere mortal having a terrific 12 months. It follows that the change in safety from Choose to Alonso would result in Soto seeing fewer aggressive pitches.

So is it true? So far as I can inform, not likely. Final season, Soto was within the fifth percentile for pitches seen within the strike zone. This season, he’s within the fifth percentile for pitches seen within the strike zone. His total zone charge has dropped barely, however given the scale of the pattern, we’re speaking a couple of distinction of two or three pitches. The bit about intentional walks is true — Soto has already been deliberately walked twice, equaling his complete from final 12 months — however a handful extra intentional walks doesn’t mirror an overhauled method.

The pitch utilization patterns from right-handers present little change between 2024 and 2025. The one vital distinction pertains to the scale of the pattern; for instance, Soto has seen twice as many splitters from right-handed pitchers to date this 12 months, however that’s largely a perform of dealing with splitter-wielders like Kevin Gausman, Bowden Francis, and Cal Quantrill within the early season.

Soto has solely seen 83 pitches from left-handed pitchers to date, however there are some doubtlessly fascinating patterns. Of these 83 pitches, 42 (50.6%) have been sliders or sweepers. Amusingly, two days earlier than The Submit interview, JP Sears threw 15 pitches to Soto, and each single one was a slider or sweeper. Maybe this might trace at a brand new technique from left-handed pitchers — in 2024, a bit of greater than 30% of lefty pitches he noticed had been sliders or sweepers — however as a result of there are simply so few pitches total, and so a lot of them are from Sears, I’m not but satisfied this represents a brand new plan.

However Soto’s quote wasn’t about seeing extra sliders; he was commenting on the frequency of hittable pitches. And in one other quote from the interview, he additionally advised that it isn’t each scenario. “I might say I get an honest quantity of strikes, however there’s some particular conditions the place pitchers don’t assault,” Soto mentioned.

What may these particular conditions be? I made a decision to take a more in-depth look. Utilizing the Statcast definition of pitches within the coronary heart of the zone as a proxy for aggressiveness, I in contrast Soto’s 2024 and 2025 seasons in a collection of rely contexts: early counts, even counts, pitcher forward, and pitcher behind. In three of these 4 conditions, Soto is seeing marginally fewer pitches over the center of the plate; the largest hole between 2024 and 2025 settles in at a few share factors of distinction.

Curiously, within the conditions the place Soto could be most primed to assault — the pitcher behind counts, so 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1 — he’s really seeing extra pitches within the coronary heart of the plate in comparison with final season:

Any means it’s sliced, it seems to be prefer it’s the identical outdated Soto: He’s seeing numerous pitches exterior the zone, and he’s taking most of them. On this, Soto stays an anomaly — usually, there’s an inverse relationship between a hitter’s zone charge and his chase charge. Soto defies this relationship — he’s that purple dot on an island on the plot beneath:

Taken collectively, Soto’s quote and the ensuing information cycle really feel like a product of signing an unlimited contract for a group taking part in within the sport’s largest media market. Or perhaps Soto was nonetheless stewing about Sears spamming sweepers two nights earlier than. In any case, there’s not likely something to see right here. The null speculation can generally be probably the most satisfying.

All stats are present as of Saturday, April 19.