Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! Welcome to a different version of my Tuesday chats. We’ve bought a pleasant little streak of 4 straight weeks going, one thing that  hasn’t occurred since Could and June, simply earlier than the summer time journey started.

Jay Jaffe: I’m extra satisfied than ever that Johnson belongs within the Corridor. Nothing towards Lou Piniella, who missed by one vote on the 2024 Period Committee poll whereas Jim Leyland bought elected — with Johnson within the “5 votes or fewer scrum — however Johnson’s managerial profession is superior to Piniella’s in all the things however size, and he was an actual innovator by way of his utilization of private computer systems and his carrying on the Earl Weaver legacy.

Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, I’ve bought a bit within the pipeline immediately about candidates for the 30-30 membership. Would you consider Juan Soto is the closest to becoming a member of from amongst this yr’s crop, and that he has extra steals over the previous ~2 months than any main leaguer? Yeah, bizarre instances.

Alby: Of the pitchers who will end with fewer than 200 wins, whose election do you suppose would do probably the most to get voters to alter their requirements – any individual who’s not a unicorn like DeGrom however would characterize the brand new stage that may enable a consultant cohort to comply with him?

Jay Jaffe: I touched upon this a number of weeks in the past once I did my Corridor of Fame progress collection (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…). I believe the reply may be Chris Sale, who’s 36 years previous, has 143 wins, and has the next-highest S-JAWS after Verlander, Kershaw, and Scherzer (49.2). I don’t see him attending to 200 wins, however 3,000 strikeouts is a risk (he wants 454), and between his perennial Cy Younger candidacy and his bWAR rankings (together with six instances in his league’s prime 5), I believe he’s going to be the only option we see for a number of years.

Jay Jaffe: Cole Hamels (48.2 S-JAWS, 163 wins) might be on the poll this winter and might be a preview case for this. He received’t fare effectively, significantly due to his lack of a Cy Younger, however he’ll be one of the best candidate till the large guys hit the poll.

Phil: Would you agree that Rafaela *has* to play heart no matter who’s obtainable? I do know Clemens and others have addressed this, however I really feel just like the Sox overvalue versatility generally, which was an issue up to now with Kiké Hernandez and so on.

Jay Jaffe: No lineup resolution is made in a vacuum, and whereas the metrics inform us that Ceddanne Rafaela is without doubt one of the greatest heart fielders within the recreation, the Pink Sox’s roster development is such that there could also be days the place he’s their most suitable choice at second base (the place he’s principally common), as a result of David Hamilton (who’s superb there) has a 55 wRC+.

Jay Jaffe: In different phrases, the Sox might have offense greater than protection on that specific day, or they might be utilizing a extra groundball-heavy pitcher who minimizes the Pink Sox’s benefit of getting an ideal heart fielder and permits them to place Duran there.

That stated, given the state of the Pink Sox outfield with Anthony probably performed for the yr and Abreu nonetheless sidelined (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-are-stretched-thin-by-the-loss…), it’s in all probability a reasonably small set of circumstances the place all this is able to make sense, since placing Masataka Yoshido in left subject (or proper) in all probability neutralizes quite a lot of different benefits conferred by placing Rafaela at second.

sodo mojo: What does a Eugenio Suarez deal appear to be subsequent yr.  He has been a monster on the plate this yr with 132 WRc+ and 45 bombs however he’s additionally going to be 35 and his protection has taken a big step again.  Is he a brief 1-2 yr deal however with a excessive AAV or is he adequate that he can command a 3 yr deal even with the danger?

Jay Jaffe: Oh I believe he will get three years, although it would take bells and whistles (choices, escalators) to get there. Perhaps one thing within the 3/$60M+ vary.

Doug: Do you see any prospects of the WC spherical going to five video games ever? Might have the highest 2 seeds play in a 3 recreation collection for the highest seed (or allow them to

Jay Jaffe: I’m positive MLB would like to create extra playoff baseball (ugh) whereas decreasing the size of the common season, one thing Manfred and the house owners want to do, however completely received’t f—— occur with out vital monetary positive aspects for the gamers. My guess is that the house owners’ place for the upcoming CBA goes to be so dipped in shit that they received’t get far with the thought.

Lord Thunder: Has Mark Vientos salvaged his likelihood to be within the Mets’ 2026 combine?

Jay Jaffe: the man has a 145 wRC+ within the second half and he’ll be a yr away from arbitration eligibility. Even when Pete Alonso workouts his participant possibility and returns, I don’t see the Mets parting methods with Vientos except it’s a part of an enormous commerce that will get them one thing significantly better.

WinTwins0410: Jay, nice piece on Davey Johnson — thanks for writing it.  I believed it was terrific — as was Bruce Weber’s obit within the New York Occasions (unsure when you noticed that).  If I’ll soar forward to the Eras committee balloting for the HoF after the season ends, I needed to ask: Regardless of how effectively Gary Sheffield did on his closing writers’ poll (63.9%), does he actually have a shot of getting in from the Eras committee, nonetheless tangential his PED connections could also be?  Looks like it’d be bizarre if a small committee let him in however not Bonds and Clemens.  What do you suppose?  The extra I give it some thought, the extra it “feels” to me like a committee (and Eras committees have been notoriously stingy towards anybody related to PEDs anyhow) would battle to confess Sheffield earlier than Bonds/Clemens.  Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the type phrases about Johnson and sure, I did see Weber’s piece, which was good. I believe you’ve hit on precisely the mess that the upcoming Period Committee faces. I truthfully don’t know the way it’s going to shake out besides that with Sheffield, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent and (perhaps) Lofton, Whitaker, and Dwight Evans it may very well be an absolute cluster—-.

Seattle: How instrumental is it that seattle resigns naylor, he’s such a wise participant and is bringing all of those traits that seattle hasnt had since idk when, only a pleasure getting to look at this man each night time

Jay Jaffe: Naylor has been a well timed addition for the Mariners. Are you able to consider he’s 25-for-27 in stolen base makes an attempt this yr regardless of dash pace that locations him within the 2nd percentile? That stated, he’s a ballplayer with limitations; proper now he’s in his third straight season with 2-3 WAR and a wRC+ within the 118-127 vary. That’s hardly a must-retain besides at a sure value level.

2131, 1312: Do you suppose Colton Cowser could be a legit heart fielder for the O’s? He doesn’t should be there daily for the subsequent 5 years, however simply lengthy sufficient till … idk, Enrique Bradfield

Jay Jaffe: I’m not satisfied. The man hit for a 118 wRC+ final yr however has crashed to an 85 wRC+ with a 34.3% strikeout price this yr, which is fairly unplayable for an everyday who isn’t an elite fielder. To me that’s a man who needs to be again in Triple-A, not an on a regular basis common.

BobbyGrichHoF: Hey Jay. I used to be questioning what your ideas on Sammy’s responsible by affiliation steroid use. Sosa by no means failed a constructive check, quite a lot of the proof is circumstantial like Piazza or Bagwell, and folks maintain him utilizing an interpreter in court docket towards him, which is actually silly as a result of English isn’t his first language. Love the entire work you’ve performed.

Jay Jaffe: I believe quite a lot of racism has seeped into the portrayals of Sosa going again to Curt Schilling making enjoyable of him together with his “Baseball been berry, berry good to me” caricature on the 2002 Residence Run Derby and sure, the interpretation of his utilizing an interpreter in court docket. Not that Sosa’s personal conduct hasn’t helped to fan the flames or that he’s as pure because the pushed snow. However I’ve at all times been suspicious of Manfred publicly noting that David Ortiz’s reported constructive on the survey check was for a substance that may have been challenged in arbitration, with out mentioning whether or not the identical was true for Sosa.

RAGBRAI: A variety of good rookie pitchers. Is any one among them off to a begin much like present HOFers? In others phrases based mostly on their rookie yr, who has a superb foundation to construct on that in 10-12 years (or extra) they’ve HOF potential. I understand that is all speculative.

Jay Jaffe: Assuming you’re speaking about precise rookies and never younger pitchers à la Paul Skenes (the apparent reply in case you are),  accidents are so prevalent that even speculating might be a waste of time. Lower than a full yr in to a pitcher’s profession I’d be wanting extra at stuff than efficiency if I needed to consider his long-term profile, with guys like Misiorowski and Schlittler standing out  — however since we don’t have, say, Stuff+ going again far sufficient to make comparisons to Corridor of Famers, it’s all sort of fruitless.

Visitor: Is Tanner Scott cooked?

Jay Jaffe: The stuff remains to be adequate, and he’s getting batters to chase, however… it’s not understanding generally. i feel it’s very arduous to dwell as only a two-pitch pitcher; he in all probability has so as to add a 3rd providing to keep away from falling into the identical patterns.

2017: Does Choose shedding that MVP after which rocketing previous Altuve in WAR really feel like a humorous flip of occasions?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, Choose was (and nonetheless is) the youthful participant with the upper ceiling so it felt not less than considerably inevitable. However I don’t suppose anybody noticed this coming.

Visitor: Is Shohei really a unicorn? He could also be doing it higher than Babe Ruth, however he’s not distinctive in being a MLBer who has hit and pitched in vital portions.

Jay Jaffe: Sure, he’s a unicorn. It’s not simply that he did each effectively, it’s that he’s performed them contemporaneously. Ruth’s double-duty days didn’t final very lengthy, and he was doing all of it pre-integration towards farm boys who pumped gasoline or ran the final retailer within the offseason. Ohtani has been stored on a brief leash due to his newest harm however he’s already had extra seasons with 100 innings and 500 plate appearances than Ruth (3 to 1); you’d should go right down to 151 PA to get three seasons the place Ruth pulled such double obligation.

Pinstriped Energy: Stanton seems to be like he’ll come proper as much as the for 500 dwelling runs earlier than his contract runs out. Makes you marvel: excluding PEd gamers and cheats, what probably the most dwelling runs by somebody not within the Corridor, and may they be in there?

Jay Jaffe: Fairly simple to reply that. Excluding the not-yet-eligible Pujols and Cabrera, the highest dwelling run hitter outdoors the Corridor who was by no means linked to PEDs is Carlos Delgado (473). Alas, he’s a man with simply 44.4 profession WAR as he was a subpar defender and baserunner who retired after his age-37 season and simply doesn’t have the portfolio of a Corridor of Famer. A real mensch, although. https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/15/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-carlos…

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: How shut was Bobby Bonds to being a HOFer? He had the height, however he didn’t compile rather a lot. (Perhaps incessant smoking was an impediment to continued efficiency?!?) I’m positive within the time earlier than 3 True Outcomes, his Okay charges have been a deal killer. I’m wondering if it could be totally different if he was having the identical profession immediately. Thanks, man!

Jay Jaffe: Bobby didn’t make it into The Cooperstown Casebook however I’ve written about him briefly earlier than, most notably on the bygone Pinstriped Bible. Updating the numbers:

A pure heart fielder who bought caught in proper subject by the Giants as a result of he had the misfortune of arriving when Willie Mays was nonetheless a going concern, Bonds averaged 5.9 bWAR per yr from 1969 by way of 1974 as a Big earlier than being traded to the Yankees for Bobby Murcer. He didn’t lose a beat, hitting .270/.375/.512 with 32 homers and 30 steals in his lone season in pinstripes, good for five.0 WAR…

Bonds appeared to spend a lot of his profession below a cloud of unhealthy luck. He and Reggie Jackson have been virtually precisely the identical age and debuted one yr aside. Each had energy, appreciable pace and a ton of strikeouts, and completed with comparable profession price stats (.268/.353/.471/129 OPS+ for Bonds to .262/.356/.490/139 OPS+ for Jackson)…

Jay Jaffe: But one was a superduperstar who received an MVP award and 5 World Collection rings, and caught round into his  forties. The opposite by no means completed larger than third in an MVP vote, performed simply three postseason video games, left the majors at 35, his profession foreshortened by issues with alcohol.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: I’m about the identical age as you, and I don’t suppose I’ve cared for a single MLB Commissioner throughout my life. Who do you suppose was one of the best of the lot throughout our period?

Jay Jaffe: Giamatti, for banning Pete Rose.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: How do you suppose the market will see Michael King this winter? He’s an exquisite pitcher who’s been banged up in ten other ways in 2025. If he stays in an upright and locked place in September and October, do you suppose a long-term deal might be ready for him?

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Someone will take the danger as a result of the ceiling is so excessive

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: The place do you stand on participant/managers moving into the Corridor in the event that they have been superb at each issues however not nice at both?

Jay Jaffe: Gotta be nice at one thing. Nice is a reasonably malleable time period and we will haggle over the specifics however I have to be satisfied a man was not less than within the argument for among the best at one among his roles.

Nancy’s Buddy Sluggo: I’ve at all times tried to take a look at potential HOFers objectively for his or her efficiency and never take note of their personalities, however Schilling makes it unimaginable for me. Can you separate the gamers from the noise, even when it’s ugly noise?

Jay Jaffe: It’s turn out to be tough to unimaginable as soon as the writers started invoking the so-called character clause.

Jay Jaffe: Which actually was barely paid consideration to earlier than Mark McGwire hit the poll in 2007.

Dan: If Juan Soto could be a chief in steal does that imply he or his base coach figured one thing out that isn’t associated to bodily expertise and over the low season different sooner gamers will work out what it’s and subsequent yr might be an enormous variety of steals?

Jay Jaffe: As famous inside, a few of this owes to the 2023 introduction of the disengagement rule and the bigger bases, however the Mets have a superb first base coach in Antoan Richardson, who has performed some drills with video to assist gamers study varied pitchers’ strikes to first. Soto is already a really, very arduous employee who has an ideal eye for element when finding out video, so add that to the benefits that runners now have and also you’ve bought a template for extra gamers getting extra aggressive with regards to stealing.

Visitor: Hello Jay!  Very dumb query that I can’t appear to search out a solution to.  How does say a Sac Fly (that brings in a run) impression WRC and WAR?  Do these formulation tab it as an out like every other?

Jay Jaffe: It’s simply one other out so far as wRC+ and WAR are involved. These positive aspects can be captured in one thing situational resembling WPA or RE24 (and naturally RBI)

bringbackpologrounds: Sorry if it is a fundamental query, however when will we study who makes it onto the up to date period poll?

Jay Jaffe: Early November.

2131, 1312: If Verlander (3.64 FIP) and Scherzer (4.95 FIP) nonetheless aren’t prepared to hold it up after this season, is there a marketplace for both of them? What sorts of contenders may take a swing?

Jay Jaffe: virtually actually some sort of market, however groups might be them as 4/5 starters good for perhaps 20-25 begins moderately than a full workload.

Jay Jaffe: They’ll value greater than the standard 4/5, after all, so don’t wait up for them in locations like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, and so on.

WestCoastPhan: Non-JAWS HOF query for you. Trea Turner has 26 on the Black Ink metric (avg. HOF has 27). How a lot do you think about these different rules-of-thumb when interested by a participant’s HOF possibilities? Additionally, how a lot do you have a look at the fWAR numbers (e.g. Turner is at 47.5 fWAR however solely 41.9 bWAR) — I get JAWS doesn’t use fWAR, however do you think about it?

Jay Jaffe: For a man like Turner, the place the defensive methods are thus far aside, it can in all probability make sense to maintain fWAR in thoughts if it’s a dramatic distinction to bWAR however for probably the most half they are typically shut sufficient to work with besides at catcher, the place fWAR’s means to seize framing (and bWAR not even making an attempt to) makes it my device of alternative.

Jay Jaffe: Black ink makes way more sense to take a look at for offense-first positions. No person ought to count on a shortstop or catcher to have the identical quantity of black ink as a primary baseman.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s it from me for immediately! Thanks a lot for stopping by. Please tip your waiters and waitresses.