Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –1/28/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! For the primary time in awhile I’m on my second chat of the month, because the Corridor of Fame election is now behind us

Jay Jaffe: Earlier than I neglect: I’m going to be a part of Nick Pollock’s PitchCon this Friday at 3 PM, doing  — what else — a Corridor of Fame-related presentation whereas serving to to lift $ for ALS analysis https://pitcherlist.com/pitchcon/2025/

Jay Jaffe: Please test it out if that’s the case inclined

EonADS: Hey Jay, thanks for all of the onerous work you place in on the Corridor of Fame info for Fangraphs every year. I do know I definitely admire it.

Jay Jaffe: I’m very fortunate to be able the place FanGraphs give me as a lot house to cowl the candidates and the Corridor of Fame course of. It’s a number of enjoyable, and i do know it’s one thing folks care deeply about. As I wish to say, it’s been my dumb luck to occur upon a useful resource that’s virtually a renewable supply of vitality

Alby: Harold Baines and Dave Parker had been wonderful hitters, however most  take into account them weak selections for the Corridor of Fame. Does it really feel like veterans’ committees have given extra weight to offensive statistics than to different components, making such gamers look extra like HoF’s to them?

Jay Jaffe: Provided that the Veterans/Period Committees are usually about 50% gamers, it’s not stunning that they default to the extra mainstream statistics which aren’t solely normally offense-related but in addition centered extra round old-school stats (AVG-HR-RBI, W-L) than new-school ones. That’s a number of what drives the alternatives — with much less thought to protection

Jay Jaffe: which isn’t to say that WAR and JAWS don’t get talked about – I’ve been instructed my stuff will get circulated within the room however that’s to not say it’s driving voters’ selections

Zach: I get that Hamels and Félix are shut in peak by way of bWAR, and that’s what informs S-JAWS, however by fWAR there’s over 8 wins separating their prime 5 seasons.Since that hole aligns with how they had been considered by, say, Cy Younger Award voters,

Jay Jaffe: I’ve particularly chosen to not use fWAR in my pitcher deliberations as a result of on the profession degree, variations in sequencing and BABIP are significant. At that time you’re higher off precise run prevention as your place to begin

Jay Jaffe: and whereas Felix did win a Cy Younger and Hamels didn’t, i feel it’s a stretch to imagine it was fWAR pushed. It was FIP pushed, that a lot was extra clear on the time

Pettitte Issues: Assuming that Andy Pettitte isn’t elected by the BBWAA, how do you foresee his candidacy for a Veteran’s Committee group? I might presume he’s extra popular with his contemporaries than a Bonds or Clemens, and suppose a committee with a Torre, Rivera, and so on. could be extra receptive to his candidacy…however I don’t know for certain, as a result of the HGH complicates issues. (As ever)

Jay Jaffe: yeah there are two opposing forces that might have an effect on his Period Committee candidacy, so to talk. Rather a lot would rely upon who’s on the committee, which is one thing the Corridor has management of. we definitely noticed them stack the deck in opposition to Bonds and Clemens with vocal anti-PED voices (Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg) and have seen committees with favorable makeups for Baines, McGriff, Parker when it comes to former teammates and execs

Jay Jaffe: I do suppose HGH would draw much less ire than straight steroids however it’s nonetheless gonna be a troublesome hurdle for Pettitte to surmount

Matt VW: Given the brevity of his profession, I’m not shocked Zobrist didn’t make the 5% threshold wanted for an extended look. However is it stunning that he was shut out solely? I get that for many voters he’s not David Wright, however I wouldn’t have thought he was Fernando Rodney both.

Jay Jaffe: Sure, I’m a bit shocked he was fully blanked when even someone like CarGo and Adam Jones obtained a minimum of a few votes. Zobrist left a a lot bigger footprint on the sport from a historic standpoint

FG BET: O/U 1.5 writers’ poll inductees in 2026?

Hyperlink: From a HOF perspective, what’s the distinction between Dave Parker and Darryl Strawberry?  They’re tough contemporaries with related off-field points, however Straw has the upper bWar, extra All-Star appearances, and is an area legend.  Is it the MVP?

Jay Jaffe: Fascinating query. I believe one factor that separates them is that when Parker’s identify surfaced within the 1985 drug trials, he was publicly shamed and placed on discover by MLB that he couldn’t mess up once more. Strawberry was suspended 3 times for substance abuse and it successfully ended his profession

Hyperlink: Extra broadly on the subject of Straw and Parker, why do related gamers get handled so in another way by the Period Committees?  Why are we at all times speaking about Mattingly, however by no means Hernandez (longer profession, increased bWar)?  Does all of it boil all the way down to how they carried out after they had been on the poll years in the past?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a few of it. it’s at all times puzzled me why Hernandez has didn’t even crack an Period Committee poll as a result of he checks so many containers. Even his cocaine situation is true in parallel with Parker’s so it shouldn’t be an obstacle. Plus he’s remained within the sport for many years as a broadcaster, which definitely performed a component within the election of Jim Kaat

Jay Jaffe: However I believe Hernandez’s massive situation is that his offensive profile doesn’t appear to be that of a contemporary Corridor 1B

Hayden: Do you suppose Pedroia may comply with Wagner’s path from 10% to election, with voters step by step turning into much less involved concerning the size of his profession? I believe Utley rising may additionally assist him with extra conventional voters–Utley has a transparent lead in WAR however they examine properly on most counting and charge stats, and Pedroia has a bit extra {hardware}.

Jay Jaffe: I believe there’s potential for it to occur however there’s a number of inertia to beat. Let’s do not forget that the writers have but to elect anybody from the post-1960 growth period who completed with fewer than 2000 hits, and it wasn’t till the 2022 election of Tony Oliva that an Period Comittee did so. Andurw Jones, Chase Utley, and Buster Posey all have the potential to knock down that barrier on the BBWAA poll. If that occurs, i feel it opens up a lane for Pedroia, however I do wish to see how a lot he will increase his help subsequent time round

Donkey: Given the Schilling/Bond/Clemens backlog, will we ever get underrepresented Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties begins into the Corridor?  Sure, possibly Kent comes off the record subsequent yr, however then he’ll get replaced by Pettite.  Given the adjustments within the citizens, if the Committee goes by BBWA efficiency, there’ll at all times be an Abreu or Pedroia or Wright to contemplate with out making room for a Whittaker or a Hernandez or a Cone.

Jay Jaffe: The present formatting is simply so irritating for that motive. Particularly after we maintain getting fed Parker and Garvey and John, and so on. My frustration with the Historic Overview Committee that builds the ballots is well-known, however the Corridor’s determination to lump issues collectively the way in which they’ve doesn’t assist

RH: Who’s th most deserving Corridor of Famer that doesn’t match into one of many present methods you may get in?

Jay Jaffe: Effectively, I believe Curt Flood form of matches that class. Sure, he was a 7x Gold Glover and 3x All-Star who helped the Cardinals to 2 championships and a pennant, however the brevity of his profession means he’s not going to get picked on the idea of his stats, and for no matter motive the HOC has by no means prioritized placing him up for a vote. We are able to’t low cost the potential of executives stonewalling him the way in which they did Marvin Miller — he as soon as identified to me what number of government voters both dated to the pre-free company period or had been sons of those that did — however a minimum of getting him on the poll builds some momentum.

Cameron L: Any additional ideas on Longoria/Donaldson’s candidacies with the likes of Arenado/Machado/Ramirez developing behind them? It looks like there will likely be a glut of third basemen and people 2 will likely be close to the underside of the pecking order.

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, whereas no person from the latter trio has received an MVP award but, Arenado and Machado are nearly even with Longoria in JAWS and Ramirez is shut. All have already got increased 7-year peaks than EL/JD and are nonetheless going. Let’s not neglect that each Longoria and Donaldson fell in need of 2,000 hits (Longoria by simply 70) in order that they have that moreover working in opposition to them, the place Machado ought to get there this yr and Arenado subsequent (Ramirez nonetheless wants 500)

Child: Why do you see Pedroia as extra prone to acquire traction than Wright?  I might suppose they’ve virtually similar instances (awards and post-seasons, however).

Jay Jaffe: as a result of awards and postseasons do matter for HOF voting functions. Invoice James’ Corridor of Fame Monitor does a good job of capturing this; Pedroia scores 94, the place 100 is an effective risk and 130 a digital cinch; Wright scores simply 74.

Alby: With Felix vs. Hamels, Felix was the most effective pitcher on his workforce, Hamels normally wasn’t, which makes Felix really feel like the higher pitcher even when the stats say they’re about even.

Jay Jaffe: I get that, however “really feel” is a reasonably small a part of what drives my perspective on this. Additionally, Hamels didn’t have half a decade of slow-motion sliding into oblivion whereas a fanbase’s coronary heart shattered into one million items

Jay Jaffe: Hamels’ solely seasons with an ERA+ beneath 100 had been 2009 (97, plus a awful postseason) and his one-start 2020.

Jay Jaffe: if he was out there, he was usually excellent to wonderful.

Grand Admiral Braun: Have you ever even run a correlation on these gamers which have lead their league in fWAR (like Zobrist did) and didn’t make the HoF? **For these eligible for the HoF. It’s gotta be a smaller quantity!

Jay Jaffe: no, indirectly. However it’s hardly unprecedented for one who led the league to overlook out

Dancing Dan McGrew: Acuna would’ve been a free agent this yr had he not signed an extension, what do you suppose he would get on the open market?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a troublesome one given his frequent accidents — he’s performed in 120 or extra video games simply twice — however I’d suppose over $250 million based mostly on the ceiling

Dodgers’ Future HOF Candidacies: Do you suppose Freddie Freeman’s HOF candidacy will likely be harm in any respect by the present handwringing over the Dodgers’ spending and acquisition of skills like Sasaki? I’d think about that the BBWAA is much less susceptible to catastrophize or maintain the workforce’s roster administration in opposition to Freeman, however I’m curious to get your take.

Jay Jaffe: No. They’ll bear in mind the consistency and the World Sequence grand slam. no person thinks about workforce payrolls when voting for a celebrity in a Corridor of Fame context.

Dancing Dan McGrew: Suppose Tatis goes on to have a corridor of fame profession, does his PED suspension hinder him or wouldn’t it be to this point within the rearview mirror that it’s a minor situation?

Jay Jaffe: we’re simply going to have to attend about 20 years to search out out. I at all times say “By no means and eternally are very lengthy occasions” in terms of Corridor of Fame elections however someone else who examined optimistic and obtained suspended might be going to should set the precedent

Jay Jaffe: on the very least, if an Period Committee elects A-Rod or Manny, for instance, then possibly there’s a precedent in place.

Pythagoras: Is Cal Raleigh in your HOF radar in any respect?

Jay Jaffe: You may see the Large Dumper from house with out a radar however he’s obtained 13.9 fWAR by means of age 27, which ain’t rather a lot at a place the place guys have a tendency to wear down.

WinTwins0410: Jay, I’ve a query about Eras committees. Looks like we’ve kind of seen sufficient information from committees to grasp that one of many issues that committees — at the same time as their compositions change, cycle to cycle — should significantly take into account is…how a man did final time with the committee. Doesn’t that bode properly for Tommy John in 3 yrs? TJ lastly broke out of the pack this yr. committee votes in recent times, most guys who escape don’t fall again later into the face-saving “fewer than X votes” class. It’s occurred to a number of deceased guys like Invoice Dahlen (sadly, I concern that few alive care about Dahlen), Danny Murtaugh and Maury Wills, plus dwelling guys Dave Concepcion & now Steve Garvey. However basically, it looks like as soon as a man breaks out of the pack with a committee, it’s usually inevitable that he’ll ultimately be elected by a future committee. For TJ, it’s an information level of 1, and I notice Lou Piniella additionally has damaged out however not gotten throughout the purpose line but. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Until you’re a near-miss, it’s truly fairly inconsistent from election to election as a result of the format, competitors, and voter panel adjustments

Jay Jaffe: You’re proper that typically they escape of the “fewer than X votes” and don’t return, however I’ve by no means studied it carefully to see who does — usually these guys don’t get a second shot.

Patrick: Do you know Cole Hamels’s #1 Comp (Similarity Rating) on bbref is Felix?  And Felix’s #1 is Hamels?!?!  bizarre!

Jay Jaffe: As I believe I wrote someplace, they’ve some fairly apparent top-line similarities when it comes to fundamental stats.

Ryan: Jay, to me Blake Snell is sort of a Brett Saberhagen or Corey Kluber with 2 Cy Younger’s however not a Corridor of Famer. If he would win a third does that change the dialog? Or is that this magical pondering within the useless of is Nick Markakis a Corridor of Famer if he obtained to 3000 hits.

Jay Jaffe: Saberhagen had a way more substantial profession than Snell or Kluber, ending with 58.9 WAR — greater than Snell (23.4) and Kluber (34.0) mixed! Additionally the one one of many three with a World Sequence MVP.

I do suppose a 3rd Cy for Snell would a minimum of make him an fascinating and maybe groundbreaking candidate, however… I wish to see it occur earlier than I begin worrying about what it means

Corey seager: Do you suppose he’s on the HOF path? He appears slightly shy by JAWS however I think about the playoff performances will assist

Jay Jaffe: There’s a number of slack in Seager’s line (36.8 profession WAR/32.7 WAR 7/34.8 JAWS) in that three of his seven greatest seasons are lower than 4.0 WAR however the man has obtained to remain on the sector

Reds Enjoyer: Are you aware off the highest of your head what yr (or decade) in Main League historical past noticed probably the most future corridor of famers energetic on the similar time?

Jay Jaffe: I imagine it’s 53 from 1930, not together with Negro Leagues gamers

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: This graph is a pair years previous however there’s a very excessive focus of Corridor of Famers per workforce per yr (and in whole) within the late 20s and early 30s. Negro Leagues provides to that

Matt: Hey Jay, needed to ask the apparent query: Sammy Sosa is now within the Cubs HOF. Is his subsequent cease Cooperstown?

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps if he drives there. He’s not getting in anytime quickly, I’m not even certain he will get on the upcoming Period poll (didn’t final time) given his meager displaying on the writers’ poll

I’m the Walrus: If Buster Posey is a corridor of famer (and it appears probably that he will likely be), then the place is the love for Thurman Munson? Their old fashioned and new faculty stats plus awards and honors (per BRef) are very related.

Jay Jaffe: You’re preaching to the choir on that one. moderately related sample to their careers other than the apparent tragedy

Yeah Effectively Hiura Towel: All of the followers clamoring for a wage cap are simply plain fallacious.

Jay Jaffe: Very. That MLBTR ballot displaying the % of followers who could be prepared to sacrifice a season for the sake of getting a wage cap is simply horrifying however we’ve seen folks gleefully vote in opposition to their very own self-interest in the event that they really feel like someone someplace is getting a greater deal than them

Nick Z: Who could be the Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Younger, & Mathewson of Sandwiches?

Alec: Any enjoyable HoF swings you’re prepared to take when it comes to a present participant who might not at present be on monitor / on the needed thresholds for induction however you suppose will enhance sufficient over the remainder of their profession to succeed in the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: Jackson Merrill doing what he did at age 21 is tremendous spectacular when it comes to having an opportunity Hallwise

Jay Jaffe: Likewise Jackson Chourio at 20.

Patrick: You’ve talked about how powerful it is going to be for gamers of sure eras to even get on a Veterans Committee poll.  Provided that, does Edmonds have any likelihood on the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: i wouldn’t maintain my breath. If Lofton can’t get on a poll along with his massive profession numbers, Edmonds aint’ getting on one anytime quickly both.

Mike: Does Chappy have a protracted shot if he miraculously replicates his 2024 season a pair occasions over the size of his contract?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah I’d say if he places up a pair extra 7.1 WAR seasons, which might give him 5 of a minimum of 7.0, he’d be a critical contender for Cooperstown. As it’s, even one such season would put his WAR7 above 40, a robust indicator of future election

Damaged Bat: Sincere query, do you favor to restrict your responses to HOF space or is any baseball matter in your sphere? Tremendous both means, simply eager to know for future questions.

Jay Jaffe: Any non-fantasy baseball matter is in my sphere however as we’re within the aftermath of HOF season I’m getting primarily HOF-flavored questions right now

Jim Mccormick: Jay will I ever get within the HOF? I’ve been useless for 106 years however my Jaw 76.2

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. The construction of the Period Committees is such that you simply’re competing with all people from Negro Leagues gamers to Tommy John and Luis Tiant only for poll house. There’s little name to place one other historic useless white pitcher within the Corridor particularly one who thrived when the foundations had been so completely different.

Cat Stevens Singing “Father and Son”: prospect lists I noticed a good variety of sons-of-former-major-leaguers. It brought on me to search for the truth that Larry and Lee Mazzei are the one father-son duo within the HOF.  Care to select a yr wherein we’ll have our first father-son participant duo elected to the HOF? I’ll exit on a limb and say 2043 Vladito will get in.

Jay Jaffe: I believe you imply Larry and Lee MacPhail. If Vladito goes to make it he’s gonna have to start out placing up some critical numbers on a constant foundation however… he’s most likely the most effective wager for awhile. It ain’t Cavan Biggio.

EonADS: My query is, since we’re fairly prone to see a change within the outlook on pitchers inside the subsequent few years, how a lot of a change in normal ought to we anticipate? Does it elevate a man like Hamels or King Felix sufficient to get in? Or is it extra like Greinke, Scherzer, and that tier getting a firmer, simpler entry?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose anybody actually is aware of the place that is going, and one drawback is that after you even get all the way down to the tier the place Hamels is, there are a number of statistically related pitchers when it comes to top-line numbers

Jay Jaffe: As i stated when doing a deep dive on Corey Kluber a yr in the past, “The crux of the entire HOF beginning pitcher requirements scenario is that if we determine a run like Kluber’s 2014–18 is worthy of Cooperstown then there are actually dozens of pitchers with equally spectacular runs, and logistically I don’t suppose there’s a technique to honor an equitable share of them.”

You may swap in Felix and seven years for that and also you’ve nonetheless obtained much more candidates than you may handle and no technique to get the entire deserving ones in

Cromulent: Yr 1 of Paul Skenes places him on an HOF path? More durable to remain wholesome than the two Jacksons however arguably much more spectacular season.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not going to wager on any rookie pitcher surviving the myriad obstacles that may forestall one from reaching Cooperstwon

snood: Any case for Wheeler/Nola?

Jay Jaffe: I’m very lukewarm on each. Wheeler obtained a late begin — his 35.2 WAR is on half with Nola’s 35.3, however Wheeler simply completed his age-34 season and Nola his age-31 season. Both or each goes to should pitch very properly for a number of extra years to have an actual shot

Tom: When do you suppose the Corridor shakes up the Committee course of once more?  They need eyeballs, and shoving Garvey and Mattingly down our throats to be rejected each three years can’t be delivering them.  We speak rather a lot about electing guys whereas they’re nonetheless alive — however we must also emphasize electing guys whereas their followers are nonetheless alive.

Jay Jaffe: For the Corridor’s functions an Period system that’s producing 1-2 honorees yearly is working simply effective and is much less prone to change than one which’s clearly dysfunctional, because the 3-Period system was

Jay Jaffe: however at a minimal I believe the Corridor wouldn’t even take into account a change to the present system till 2x by means of the order (so, after 3 extra years).

jj hardy: Hypothetically, shall we say Jackson Chourio in two separate timelines has the very same profession statline. In a single, he performs with the Brewers for 18 years and leads them to first WS. Within the different, he performs with the Brewers for 8, then switches to LAD and wins 1 WS with them (superteam). Assuming his stats are borderline HOF, does he have a greater likelihood at getting in with situation 1?

Jay Jaffe: a single-team candidate most likely has a slight benefit, however it may simply be offset by the added publicity by way of the 2nd World Sequence.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s it for me this week. Thanks a lot for stopping by with so many nice questions!

Jay Jaffe: We’ll do that once more quickly