Cal Raleigh has a number of energy. That’s all the time been his calling card, not less than on offense. In every of his three full main league seasons, he’s posted a below-average OBP and an above-average offensive line. In cavernous T-Cell Park, the toughest place to hit in baseball, his 34 house runs and .436 slugging proportion in 2024 have been downright titanic. This 12 months, although, he’s tapped into one thing new.
Or, nicely, his outcomes are completely one thing new. One very attention-grabbing factor about Raleigh’s spectacular 2025: It hasn’t come from extra uncooked energy. Most exit velocity? Nothing new for Raleigh. Neither is his common exit velocity, nor his hard-hit fee, each of that are broadly in keeping with 2024. His bat velocity is similar. When he’s attempting to hit a house run, he’s doing it the way in which he all the time has.
However whereas his capability to hit baseballs laborious is likely to be the identical because it’s all the time been, he’s demonstrating that capability extra usually than ever earlier than. He’s each placing the ball within the air and pulling his elevated contact extra continuously, and extra of his batted balls are barrels, too. He’s putting out much less continuously, with a career-high contact fee and career-low swinging strike fee.
Nothing is ever so easy that it’s pushed by one factor, however I feel there’s one essential change driving Raleigh’s surge. It’s one thing he’s been working towards for a number of years, in truth. When Raleigh is forward within the rely and pitchers throw him meatballs over the guts of the plate, he’s swinging lower than ever earlier than:
Cal Raleigh’s Coronary heart Swing%, Forward In Depend
| 12 months | Swing% |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 83.7% |
| 2022 | 85.0% |
| 2023 | 76.1% |
| 2024 | 77.9% |
| 2025 | 73.4% |
Wait, that doesn’t sound like a very good factor. Raleigh used to feast when he obtained forward within the rely, unleashing his fearsome swing nearly every time he noticed a pitch to drive. Now he’s swinging at a league-average fee. These are the most effective pitches within the sport to be hitting. If you wish to show extra energy with out getting stronger or swinging more durable, providing at extra of those is simply the ticket. However Raleigh is swinging at them much less whereas hitting for extra energy. What offers?
What offers is that the statistic I simply gave you is a bit deceptive with out further context. Certain, Raleigh isn’t taking fairly as a lot benefit of the simple pitches he sees when he’s already forward within the rely. However he’s additionally swinging at unhealthy pitches in these conditions much less continuously. Listed here are a number of methods of measuring that: swings within the “shadow-out” zone, which is simply off the perimeters of the plate, swings within the “chase” zone simply previous that, and swings on all pitches which might be out of the zone:
Cal Raleigh’s Swing Charges by Location, Forward in Depend
| 12 months | Shadow-Out% | Chase% | Out of Zone% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 52.2% | 47.1% | 42.6% |
| 2022 | 47.2% | 22.5% | 30.8% |
| 2023 | 52.3% | 14.1% | 30.6% |
| 2024 | 48.3% | 20.4% | 31.9% |
| 2025 | 45.5% | 17.9% | 25.8% |
Not all three are profession lows, however they’re all indicative of a special method. Raleigh has all the time been a high-swing man. Even this 12 months, he’s chasing pitches exterior of the strike zone extra usually than the league common. However in 2025, he’s holding again like by no means earlier than.
One potential clarification right here is that Raleigh is studying to command the strike zone. Perhaps he’s found out plate self-discipline after years of struggling to tell apart balls from strikes. He’s strolling extra usually and putting out much less continuously. However I don’t assume that’s fairly proper as a result of, once more, his swing fee on pitches over the guts of the plate has declined. As an alternative, what we’re seeing from Raleigh will not be a lot an enchancment in talent however a change in method.
Contemplate two sorts of swings, one good and one unhealthy. Swinging at a pitch over the guts of the plate? That’s good. Swinging at a pitch that’s not even close to the border of the zone? That’s unhealthy. These are coronary heart swing fee and chase/waste swing fee, respectively. The upper the hole between these two, the higher a batter has completed on the core perform of pitch choice: Attacking the easy-to-hit ones and shedding those which might be clearly out of the zone. Raleigh isn’t bettering on this entrance. The truth is, he’s at a profession low, not less than when you exclude his abbreviated 2021 debut:
Good Swings vs. Unhealthy Swings
| 12 months | Coronary heart% | Chase/Waste% | Hole |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 85.0% | 28.7% | 56.3% |
| 2022 | 82.2% | 19.8% | 62.4% |
| 2023 | 76.7% | 17.2% | 59.5% |
| 2024 | 78.9% | 19.4% | 59.5% |
| 2025 | 77.3% | 18.7% | 58.6% |
You may consider plate self-discipline as the mix of two separate axes. First, there’s pitch recognition. One of the best guys at this – Kyle Tucker, Corey Seager, Aaron Decide, Juan Soto – are consultants at telling strikes from balls. That is the toughest a part of commanding the strike zone. You probably have this talent, good for you! It seems to be very tough to be taught, with few hitters taking large leaps ahead from one 12 months to the following. Raleigh isn’t any exception, as that ratio of swings at hittable pitches to unhealthy chases suggests.
The second a part of plate self-discipline is simply propensity to swing. On the excessive, a hitter might simply select by no means to swing in a given rely; then he’d have a 0% chase fee in that rely it doesn’t matter what. This isn’t the identical as accurately figuring out balls from strikes. Tucker and Seager swing much more than Soto does regardless of their equally elite capability to choose up on what the pitcher is throwing. James Wooden sports activities an affordable chase fee, however that’s partially as a result of he nearly by no means swings; he has one of many lowest coronary heart swing charges within the league.
Altering your capability on that first axis is, as I discussed, almost not possible. Everybody would do it if they might, and one path is clearly higher than the opposite. The second axis, propensity to swing, is extra difficult. Swinging extra general isn’t inherently good or unhealthy. If Soto and Lars Nootbaar began swinging much less, they might nearly actually damage their numbers. If Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper began swinging extra, they’d possible see a downturn in manufacturing, as a result of they’re already fairly aggressive.
That brings us again to Raleigh. Right here’s a easy mannequin in my head: Raleigh is a low-contact, high-power hitter. These two issues are elementary. He’s not selecting to be one or the opposite, he simply is. I gathered a cohort of hitters who regarded, in a broad sense, like Raleigh in 2024. These have been hitters who batted not less than 500 instances, posted a contact fee not less than half a typical deviation under league common, and posted an remoted energy not less than half a typical deviation above league common. In plain English, we’re speaking about low-contact, high-power hitters.
That gave me a gaggle of 15 hitters from 2024: Raleigh, Harper, Decide, Willy Adames, Shohei Ohtani, Shea Langeliers, Eugenio Suárez, Rafael Devers, Jake Burger, Colton Cowser, Marcell Ozuna, Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernández, Brent Rooker, Elly De La Cruz. It’s a small pattern, after all, however all of those guys batted a ton in 2024, and I’m largely in fascinated about these teams when it comes to archetypes. With these 15 in hand, I separated them by their swing charges – low, medium, and excessive. Let’s put it this fashion: For hitters like Raleigh, decrease swing charges appear to work wonders:
Low-Contact, Excessive-Energy Hitters, By Swing Price
| Group | BB% | Okay% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Swing% | 14.5% | 27.8% | .271 | .381 | .544 | 158 |
| Medium Swing% | 9.6% | 26.7% | .271 | .345 | .514 | 136 |
| Excessive Swing% | 9.5% | 25.3% | .252 | .329 | .474 | 123 |
Certain, swinging much less leads to a couple extra strikeouts. But it surely additionally grants batters much more walks in return, and it’s additionally related to the next slugging proportion. It’s not laborious to think about why that is likely to be the case: In the event you swing so much with a low contact fee, you’ll find yourself behind in a ton of counts, and the sorts of pitches you see whereas behind aren’t conducive to hitting for energy. All the gamers we’re taking a look at nonetheless managed to crush the ball. In the event you’re a high-swing, low-contact hitter, in spite of everything, you higher have some energy. However amongst whiff-prone boppers, the group that swings much less celebrates extra.
Certainly, the proof that Raleigh is making this alteration is in every single place. The best manner to consider it’s that he’s by no means spent the next share of his time within the batter’s field forward within the rely than he has this season. Like most hitters, he hits for lots extra energy when forward within the rely. When he places the ball in play whereas forward within the rely, he has a profession .816 slugging proportion. When he places the ball in play whereas behind, he slugs a mere .508.
What causes that hole? It’s every thing. Pitchers need to enterprise into the guts of the plate extra continuously when the hitter is forward. Hitters can zone in on a specific pitch or space, taking in the event that they don’t get precisely what they’re searching for. That’s a luxurious they don’t have when behind within the rely. Heck, hitters can simply swing more durable if they need, and plenty of do. It’s not a lot that Raleigh has realized tips on how to hit when forward within the rely in 2025; he’s all the time identified how to do this. He’s simply getting forward extra continuously, which is giving him extra possibilities to point out off the easiest a part of his sport.
Bear in mind how I stated that he’s swinging much less continuously at hittable pitches when forward within the rely? It’s true from a frequency standpoint, little doubt. However regardless of that, he’s taking extra hacks at hittable pitches per plate look than he ever has earlier than. That’s as a result of he’s getting to those advantageous spots extra usually. He’s seeing extra fastballs over the guts of the plate, and swinging at extra fastballs over the guts of the plate, too.
Does all of this imply that Raleigh goes to keep up his 170 wRC+? No manner. However I do assume it means he’s very possible to enhance on his numbers as in comparison with the previous, and he was already fairly good previously. For hitters like Raleigh – highly effective however whiff-prone – there’s a transparent profit to swinging much less continuously. It forces pitchers to satisfy you within the strike zone extra continuously or danger shedding you to a stroll – and loads of pitchers aren’t prepared to take that danger. The associated fee isn’t enormous, as a result of although Raleigh is surrendering some swings at hittable pitches, he’s producing extra pitches to hit by getting forward within the rely extra usually.
Although nothing else about his sport has modified, a tough translation of his new method says that this ought to be price round 5-10 factors of wRC+. As Leo Morgenstern famous right now, Raleigh is DH’ing extra continuously this 12 months, and whereas he hasn’t hit nicely when DH’ing, the remaining absolutely additionally provides to his offensive prowess; it’s simpler to maintain your physique recent to hit while you aren’t all the time enjoying essentially the most demanding defensive place on the sector. Mix these two issues, and naturally Raleigh is hitting higher.
Can he preserve this method up? I don’t see any cause why not, not less than within the brief time period. Baseball is a sport of changes, and pitchers should attempt one thing to disrupt Raleigh’s present kind. Perhaps they’ll assault the zone early, hoping that his current adjustments result in extra takes and pitchers’ counts. Perhaps they’ll change to attacking with in-zone secondaries, simply to provide him a special look. He’s been feasting on every thing this 12 months, however notably on fastballs. Perhaps they’ll discover a gap in his swing and power him to alter one thing else to regulate.
Predictions are laborious to make, particularly concerning the future. However I can say this for sure: Raleigh was swinging an excessive amount of earlier than. It wasn’t a lot a matter of unhealthy pitch recognition; he simply got here up there eager to hit. Dialing that propensity again has made him extra harmful. He was already a profession 111 wRC+ hitter, and now I feel he’s higher than that. Mix that along with his elite protection, and we is likely to be trying on the new Finest Catcher in Baseball. Perhaps different energy hitters ought to comply with the Large Dumper’s lead and simply swing rather less.
