Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/20/25

Dan Szymborski: And away we go!

Wrights_Back: What would the Mets have to surrender to get Stop – if he’s out there?

Dan Szymborski: I believe the nearer we get to the season, the extra the Padres will dangle onto him.

Dan Szymborski: The Mets would definitely have to surrender one thing actual. YOu can in all probability fatten the supply a bit with guys the Padres have extra purpose to love than the Mets.

Dan Szymborski: Like Clifford, who might be extra helpful to San Diego, however you’re not going to land him with JUST Clifford

Dan Szymborski: I kinda get the concept that the mets are happyw ith their rotation, and never prone to meet a wealthy worth

Klubot3000: High 500 ZiPS, High 500 ZiPS, High 500 ZiPS!

It’s all of the individuals are clamoring for, Dan! (however for actual, thanks as at all times for the ZiPS view into prospects). It will be cool to interrupt down the offensive vs defensive break up between the WAR for the gamers on the highest 100. And even higher, doing a ‘instruments’ breakdown the place we will see how the ZiPS creator thinks every prospect will earn his stripes in an identical method to the scouting breakdowns (Hit/energy/pace/protection).

Cheers!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like doing the entire 500 as a result of the farther down you go, the much less significant the variations are abetween the prospects

Dan Szymborski: And simply from a projection standpoint, I don’t like utilizing ZiPS for issues that I don’t assume ZiPS gives worth for

Klubot3000: some pitching prospects that missed your high 100 however appear to mission effectively by ZiPS 26/27: why did Lucas Braun, Noah Cameron, Joe Rock, Braxton Ashcroft, Thomas Harrington, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, and KC Hunt miss? How far down the record are they and will you see any of them pushing into high 100 territory this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t communicate for every participant! It’s often a operate of the upside/draw back projections

Dan Szymborski: I believe it was 2020, I began utilizing 80/20 common as an alternative of fifty, since I felt the record was *too* pleased with decrease ceiling, excessive ground guys

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS could also be math, however defining what a “high prospect” *means* is philosophical

Visitor: Hey Dan! Thanks for these chats, they’re superior. In an public sale keeper league (3 12 months keepers), is it usually okay to maintain guys at price or just a little larger? Do I retain a $36 Lindor (projections say he’ll be value $33), or do I throw him again and hope to make use of that cap area to draft a cut price (possibly even Lindor once more at a less expensive worth)? How agency ought to I keep on with my preseason projected values?! Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: It actually will depend on who truly you’d realistically be capable to get underneath your keeper guidelines

Dan Szymborski: However simply talking so generically, given the expertise on the high and the depth of shortstop, I may be inclined to re-use that cap area

Dan Szymborski: particularly if it didn’t appear like my crew was robust sufficient to compete

Dan Szymborski: Like, would McLain at half the value offer you sufficient cash to get somebody you want?

Dan Szymborski: That’s one thing you must contemplate

Blue: There are a couple of gamers like Hyeseong Kim who seem within the ZiPS DC projection, however not the common ZiPS. Is there a lot of a distinction within the projections in these areas and/or is there an replace coming?

Dan Szymborski: If the participant doesn’t have common ZiPS projection, the DC one is an odd database error

Dan Szymborski: I’ve to look into it extra; I unintentionally didn’t give Sasaki and Kim, they usually had bizarre ZiPS DC projections that didn’t have an effect on the depth chart proejctions in any respect

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: that’s kim

nwidman13: Hello Dan, do you’ve gotten a favourite snack meals?

Dan Szymborski: I are likely to not be a snacker

Dan Szymborski: however my favourite snacks can be Cool Ranch Doritos and both Utz Crab or Salt & Vinegar chips

Dan Szymborski: sweet, largely simply Bitter Patch Children

Dan Szymborski: however I largely don’t deal with myself. I’m a fatass WITH a fairly nutritious diet

Pumpsie Inexperienced: Might you give a fast clarification of the variations between Zips & Zips DC? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS DC is simply ZiPS pro-rated to whateve’rs on the depth charts on the time

Smiling Politely: Dan, thx for the good work as at all times. Any easy-to-share ideas on the again half of the highest 100 SS? What makes Nachoooooooooooooooo so thrilling to zips? Does it discover Freeland’s rise to be a bit too sudden?

Dan Szymborski: For one, ZiPS doesn’t share the idea across the league that he’s not a very good defensive SS

MannyBeingManny: With Horowitz out for in all probability the primary month or 2 of the season for the Pirates, who will get the vast majority of the enjoying time at 1B?

Dan Szymborski: Because it doesn’t appear to be REynolds, they in all probability simply throw Triolo or somebody there early

Rice Age Scholar: Have you learnt why precisely Ben Rice has the worst defensive projection of all gamers in baseball? Is it simply because he’s new to 1B or is there one thing primarily based in his play there that ZiPS doesn’t like

Dan Szymborski: The chance/coordinate technique I exploit within the minors REALLY hates his protection

Chris: I used to be shocked to see Drake Baldwin exterior of ZIPs high 200 prospects when he’s FGs 11 ranked prospect. Is there some purple flag together with his profile the pc is seeing?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS simply doesn’t see his UPSIDE as excessive. He’d rank quite a bit larger simply doing fiftieth percentile

Dan Szymborski: And like all of the catchers, he takes a success from being a catcher

Dan Szymborski: As a result of catchers have a LOT of blow-up potential

Visitor: Is ZiPS a bit behind on Drake Baldwin? Looks as if the consensus is far larger than projections

Dan Szymborski: It would, it may not be. Solely time can inform

Lowetide: Colt Keith over Spencer Torkelson at 1B for Detroit primarily based on Zips manufacturing (for my factors league) however how susceptible is Keith to an in-season improve by way of commerce iyo?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s pretty solvable

Bumper: Have you ever ever appeared into how BaseballTradeValues does participant values? It appears like they take a really related strategy to ZiPS, however additionally they appear to get extra warmth than ZiPS does.

Dan Szymborski: They get extra warmth becuase they’ve a one dimension matches all device that everybody digs aside!

Dan Szymborski: I solely do a commerce piece like every year, and that edefinitely will get individuals mad at me

Bumper: Do you intend to make use of/at present use stuff+ in ZiPS pitcher projections? If not, would you fairly construct your individual or simply embody an exterior mannequin?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve my very own factor I exploit as a result of it’s simpler for me to check projection interactions

Dan Szymborski: Principally any mannequin in ZiPS is one I’ve put collectively. It appears like dishonest to make use of the enter of others

Dan Szymborski: And after I management the mannequin for one thing, I also can calibrate it myself

Dan Szymborski: I don’t publish my very own stuff numbers (I internally name it Ztuff), since I believe the confusion of yet one more quantity on the market outweighs the doable achieve

Dan Szymborski: which is why I solely use zWAR for inner and the ZiPS rudnowns

CFH: Hey – you’ve talked about prior to now chats that median projections are largely solved / there’s not an enormous quantity of variance. Studying the zips high 100, I’m questioning does this go for prospect projections as effectively (and KBO/NPB)? Or is there extra variance there?

Dan Szymborski: That’s laborious to say just because I don’t assume different projectioniers are doing their very own high 100!

Rafael: Why aren’t extra groups desirous about Yoshida? It will resolve numerous Crimson Sox lineup issues.

Dan Szymborski: DH solely tends to scare away groups until they’re CERTAIN concerning the offense

War2d2: Hey Dan! The Cubs simply DFA’d Canario, and I’m unreasonably upset about it (primarily as a result of I’m indignant once more that Ross didn’t play him in 2023 to see what he may very well be). I get that he’s a 40-45fv man, however I’d fairly roster a 24yo energy man than the smoldering corpse of Justin Turner. What do you (and ZiPS) assume?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a lot Turner that bothers me

Dan Szymborski: However do you REALLY want Hollowell, when the choice is dropping Canario?

Reds Enjoyer: If you happen to had been the White Sox, would you commerce Luis Robert proper now or would you’re taking the chance that he’ll be again to kind and also you would possibly get a greater bundle on the commerce deadline?

Dan Szymborski: It’s laborious to say since I don’t know what the particular gives ARE

DJ Tofu: What statistics does ZiPS optimize for? e.g. is it extra correct for PA, BA, HR, and so forth.? And the way does it create the 20/80 percentile outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: I most care about getting the OPS+/wRC+ and the ERA+/FIP proper

Dan Szymborski: plus D

Mariners Fan: Does ZiPS use strikeout park elements, BIP splits (lefty/proper/HR/triple/double/single/outs), or one thing much more high-quality? Has T-Cell made you contemplate including extra park elements?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS makes use of the BIP splits lefty and righty however it additionally has an algorithm for park issue/pull-spray tendency interactions

Bumper: Enjoyable projection thought: in your season simulation, midway by means of the simulation, re-project gamers, and re-weight enjoying time by the brand new projection. In idea, this may increase groups with extra depth (although I think about it might take some time to run)

Dan Szymborski: I kinda hope that the methodology I exploit hits depth fairly effectively and that’s already fairly workload intensive!

Johnny5Alive: Together with your zips prospect record, with a man like Caissie for instance, when zips has him fairly excessive within the high 100 however fan graphs has him off their record, what’s the large distinction? Zips his energy manufacturing within the minors whereas Eric is utilizing conventional scouting that has him scared concerning the swing and miss?

Dan Szymborski: It will be fairly presumptuous for me to take a position on precisely how Eric feels! ZiPS might be a fan of the hulk smash guys than most scouting guys are

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS was the very best on Choose and Alonso and in addition Bryce Eldridge

Arenado: Do you assume he will get moved on the deadline? As a yankees fan I can’t cease hoping he would possibly wish to be a part of Goldschmidt

Dan Szymborski: Is determined by the state of affairs. It’s a chance

Visitor: Does the Zips projection change a lot for Pivetta with him shifting to SD?  Final 12 months SD allowed fairly a couple of HRs and he’s a flyball man…

Dan Szymborski: A bit. His projection in there ought to be SD!

Tacoby Bellsbury: If you happen to ever get again to doing ZiPS Time Warps, are you able to please what-if Chuck Knoblauch by no means leaving Minnesota or getting the YiPS?

Visitor: How do you stability your writing obligations with life? Like when there are holidays do you “take off” and simply resolve you’re not going to consider baseball or concepts? Or is it way more fluid and also you’ve come to peace with understanding some days you’ll have it and a few days you gained’t and simply being high-quality with it?

Dan Szymborski: Query one? Fairly poorly truly.

Dan Szymborski: The very fact is, baseball has been one among my major pursuits since I used to be 4

Dan Szymborski: In kindergarten and first grade, I exploit to fill otu these black and white composition books with stats

Dan Szymborski: So the reality is, I’m by no means actually FULLY off

Dan Szymborski: That’s one purpose video video games are a very good informal exercise for me, as a result of it’s one thing that’s REALLY laborious for me to multitask until it’s an RPG

Dan Szymborski: Like most of my TV watching will finish with me doing work and kinda listening to the TV

Visitor: I, such as you, have a reasonably internet-dependent job. Do you ever take into consideration what you’d do within the case of a worldwide web outage? I believe I’d must get like, a job stocking cabinets or one thing.

Dan Szymborski: Relies upon how lengthy this web outage is!

Dan Szymborski: If we’re speaking various years, I’d have to alter fields

oldDude: I for one would like to examine zstuff, significantly in the event you can calculate it in excel!

Dan Szymborski: I’d write some this winter

John: Since a crew that scores 700 runs and permits 600 has the next projected profitable % than one which scores 800 and permits 700, aren’t runs prevented a tiny bit extra worthwhile than runs scored? Does that make sufficient of a distinction to alter how we view pitchers versus batters worth?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not sufficient of a distinction; it’s largely only a quirk in a easy mannequin fairly than something useful

bumper: How does ZiPS consider first basemen within the minors? Is there receiving credit score?

Dan Szymborski: One thing like scoops is out of ZiPS ken. It’s laborious sufficient to do within the majors (and even then, only some runs in some way and fairly risky)

Dan Szymborski: However as an example, on grounders, I do know the course of each ball hit

Dan Szymborski: For instance, the grounds most probably to turn out to be outs, in MLB and hte minors

Dan Szymborski: are these hit (with straight up by means of second base as 0 levels) 16 levels (90.1%), 15 levels (89.9%)`, 17 levels (89.7%), 14 levels (89.5%), -17 levels (89.4%), -16 levels (89.3%), and so forth

Dan Szymborski: whiel the grounders with the bottom likelihood of being outs are the three levels closest to first, the three levels closest to 3rd, then 0 and one diploma on both sice of second

Dan Szymborski:

Buldak: Hey Dan, it’s Joe from BlueSky, the one pestering you with all of the ramen content material. Anyhow, ZiPS appears to have a crush on Owen Caissie and would identical to to get some context on that. Caissie doesn’t appear to have the caliber glove (per current stories) that your mannequin loves, so I take it the mannequin is extra bullish on him reducing his ok price and actualizing his peak? Thanks for all the things you do Dan, as at all times.

Dan Szymborski: Ok price is overrate for good offensive gamers

Dan Szymborski: within the minors

Dan Szymborski: I name this the Kris Bryant Rule

Dan Szymborski: Now, Caissie’s not projected to be wherever pretty much as good as Bryant

Dan Szymborski: however the precept is identical

Dan Szymborski: One of many largest dangers for an offense-first prospect is *passivity*

Dan Szymborski: Good offensive prospects are hitting effectively in opposition to minor league pitchers (or they wouldn’t be good offensive prospects)

Dan Szymborski: they’re *incentivized* to place the ball in play and minor league pitchers are giving them extra hittable crap than MLB ones would

Dan Szymborski: I exploit Bryant as a result of after the aggressive projections, lots of people in chat identified that he struck out quite a bit within the minors

Dan Szymborski: Now, you need guys making contact

Dan Szymborski: however it’s simply LESS of a giant deal for good hitters

Dan Szymborski: And whether or not or not Caissie tightens issues up in opposition to MLB pitchers, that’s one of many issues that can decide what he finally ends up being

Dealer Joe: When can we anticipate Fangraphs to have an equal BaseballTradeValues sort device?

Dan Szymborski: Not anytime quickly, if ever, I don’t think about

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ assume that’s a precedence and we now have numerous different stuff to work on

Quarantino Martinez: My cat has taken to nibbling on any textile that has a glimmer of meals: tea towels, tablecloths, sweater sleeves. What’s her Zips MLB GM comp? Is she an Elias, nibbling on the perimeters, guaranteeing that the ultimate object remains to be good however not appropriate for the World Collection? A Brian O’Halloran, opportunistically getting hers even when it means taking over some linen-based bloat? Or a Friedman, who simply thinks all the things on the market belongs to her?

Dan Szymborski: Preller possibly? He’s at all times doing SOMETHING even when not at all times good

Oddball Herrera: Who’s your decide for the yearly “man who runs a 1.000 OPS in spring coaching after which brutally stabs his unrealistic fantasy house owners within the again when actual video games begin” award? Properly name this the Akil Baddoo Switcheroo

Dan Szymborski: Ah, but when we might predict the spring man, then he woudln’t be the spring man!

Tiger Fan: Simply curious, does ZiPs use AFL knowledge with prospects? Or purely minor league common season?

Dan Szymborski: As with school knowledge, solely when it actually HAS TO

Bob Loblaw: Ought to the Cubs signal Trevor Bauer?

Dan Szymborski: No

Carson: Is it embarrassing I’m hoping I consider that Michael McGreevy generally is a Kyle Gibson sort? I see room for him to be a stable 5 within the majors. Ideas?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing flawed with consuming innings

Dan Szymborski: Most baseball gamers aren’t nice ones

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to win a BBWAA lifetime achievement award

Dan Szymborski: A lot of the eating places you’re keen on close to you aren’t getting Michelin stars

Bob Loblaw: What does ZiPS appear like? Something like WOPR from Battle Video games?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Until I’m making the backup server crunch numbers (which I continuously do)

Dan Szymborski:

$$$$$$: NOMB…is ZIPS your foremost supply of revenue?  REALLY NOMB…..is your annual revenue> $100K.

Dan Szymborski: Not going into element, however FanGraphs is my major employer.

Dan Szymborski: I write quite a bit too!

Matt VW: How would you type the Crimson Sox’s rising positional farrago?

Dan Szymborski: In a manner that might make Rafael Devers actually pissed at me

Klubot3000: Have you learnt if we’ll get school leaderboards now that a few of these school knowledge are on FG?

Dan Szymborski: Undecided, I can ask

Visitor: what odds would you must get to place $100 on your self profitable a BBWAA liftime achivement award? I consider in you, I’d do it for 10,000 to 1!

Dan Szymborski: 300-to-1

Aaron: Liked seeing ZiPS so excessive on Cole Younger. His manufacturing over his final 46 video games age 20 in AA was similar to Jackson Merrill’s 46 sport manufacturing a 12 months earlier than on the identical age in the identical league. (323/.433/.437/.870 for Younger; .273/.338/.444/.782 for Merrill).  Does ZiPS think about that current of a comp?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS will discover the comp, but when there’s restricted or no knowledge after the comp 12 months, it gained’t use the participant

Buldak: If you happen to might construct a participant that ZiPS can be completely in love with whereas nonetheless being “underneath the radar” by extra conventional assessments, what would that participant’s skillset appear like?

Dan Szymborski: barely older, higher defensive numbers than you’d anticipate from their athleticism,

mmddyyyy: With 2023, 2024, potential 2025 free brokers, when their stats come up in an article most authors embody a caveat for the 60 sport 2020 season. Do you assume that caveat will cease showing in our lifetimes?

Dan Szymborski: It’ll fade away, besides when a man is near a milestone

Dan Szymborski: and it makes a distinction

Richard: Would you be prepared to share a ZIPS projection for Tucker or Vlad’s subsequent contract?

Dan Szymborski: I’m doing a Vlad piece for MOnday!

mmddyyyy: do baseball groups do the Wonderlic check?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard of them doing it, however that’s not likely a aspect that I become involved in

Visitor: one other q about how you’re employed… if you do consulting for groups, are you identical to, “certain! beep boop beep!” and then you definitely print out what zips provides you? Or are you making important algorithmic / output choices which are significantly extra work than your each day?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a really difficult state of affairs, so 20 years in the past, I needed to make the choice to be very strict with confidentiality wall

Dan Szymborski: I merely report the particular factor that’s requested and supply the report. I don’t supply any opinions or recommendation and even any advising of what knowledge somebody *ought to* get, each crew will get the identical price as each different crew with all requests accepted, each player-agent will get the identical price as each different player-agent

Dan Szymborski: I don’t make gross sales pitches, and all the things I do, aside from the required IRS reporting, I take to the grave.

Dan Szymborski: And this has labored out effectively over time. I’ve bought *one thing* to greater than half the groups. My best can be to do all the things utterly blind, however individuals in entrance workplaces wish to speak to me, not a intermediary consultant

Dan Szymborski: One exception on the identical price: I don’t cost gamers who usually are not on a 40-man roster or an MLB free agent for fundamental long-term projections.

Okra: Sox ought to have had made certain Devers was okay with transfer to 1B earlier than signing Bregman, proper?  Until they commerce from their place participant surplus the crew is greatest with Bregman at third.

Dan Szymborski: I’d positively wish to have been a fly on the wall and see what discussions are

Visitor: Have you ever ever in contrast ZIPS projections in opposition to actual world numbers and in that case, how had been the outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: On a regular basis!

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Hey, rightclicking a picture in Twitter truly goes to the picture now, not the tweet!

Visitor: I’ve uncovered that numerous the baseball gamers in your database are literally over 100 years previous.  Some are even 150 years previous.  You guys higher tighten issues up

Massive Fan: You mentioned earlier that ZiPS turns into much less helpful the farther down you go.  Might you do a ZiPs High 5 Prospect by crew?

Dan Szymborski: I COULD. I’d do high 200 final 12 months since so many individuals need them

Visitor: Nolan Ryan pitched 332 innings of sub 3 ERA and FIP in 1974 however is simply credited with 6.3 WAR. What provides?

Dan Szymborski: bear in mind, 1974 was a 3.63 FIP league

Dan Szymborski: And Angels Stadium was a pitchers park in that period

Visitor: Why are pulled barrels higher than sprayed barrels? Isn’t the purpose of a barrel that it’s the identical EV and angle regardless? I heard this from Eno

Dan Szymborski: I erally must see the context

Buldak: Ever performed OOTP?

Dan Szymborski: Sure’

Dan Szymborski: And so they construct the scores off the ZiPS projections!

Hello: Is there any profit to Bluesky or is it only a political desire?

Dan Szymborski: I exploit each Twitter and Bluesky

Dan Szymborski: I’m hoping all of the left-wingers and right-wingers type themselves out amongst Blue Sky and Twitter effectively to make it simpler to disregard

mmddyyyy: How do you talk with the opposite Fangraphs people?

Dan Szymborski: The identical manner most individuals do?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do telepathy

John: Actually just like the Nats Soroka signing considering it may very well be the 25 model of Sale,R Lopez ideas?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Dan Szymborski: However whether it is, you possibly can come again right here and crow about it for certain!

Visitor: So the Nolan Ryan that is simply because relative to his piers it wasn’t as spectacular as it might be right this moment?

Dan Szymborski: It was only a decrease offensive surroundings

Alan: I used to be shocked to not see JJ Wetherholt within the ZiPS 100. He appears to be a consensus high 50-ish propspect throughout rankings. What does your pc see otherwise?

Dan Szymborski: Guys with little skilled expertise take a giant hit in projections

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS was unusually constructive final 12 months about Langford

Dan Szymborski: Crews took a giant related hit final 12 months

QQ: The Orioles are spending $75M this 12 months on their bench, 4/5 starters, three center relievers, and AAA depth.  I don’t know what to say, it’s simply so dumb in contrast after being too poor to maintain Burnes or Santander or lengthen actually anybody

Dan Szymborski: I’d not have saved Santander, however I certain woudl have gone after Burnes

Bob Loblaw: FYI – The brand new Adam Sandler film “Spaceman” is completely horrible. Don’t waste your time.

Visitor: Nolan Ryan: Yeah, however the innings

Dan Szymborski: WAR takes into consideration innings

Jordan: Might MLB or the opposite house owners ever power or “persuade” Bob Nutting to promote the Pirates? He’s at all times been low cost and unpopular, however it appears like each have reached new heights, particularly given the expertise on the roster.

Dan Szymborski: I imply they COULD however they gained’t

Dan Szymborski: Even Wilpons weren’t truly compelled by MLB

Dan Szymborski: They let Jeff Loria have a SECOND crew

Dan Szymborski: On that observe, it’s time for me to go out for one more week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!