D-D-Don’t Cease the Pete | FanGraphs Baseball

“I’m so sick of this friggin’ man,” is likely one of the best compliments one pays an opposing athlete. And the Dodgers should be sick to loss of life of Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs and Dodgers, who opened the season collectively in Japan, simply performed 5 video games within the span of 13 days to finish their season sequence. In these 5 video games, Crow-Armstrong did his regular speed-and-defense act, however he additionally went 10-for-22 with 4 dwelling runs.

Within the two-game sequence that simply ended, PCA went 3-for-5 with a house run and a double within the first sport, and 3-for-4 with a house run and two stolen bases within the second. The Cubs received every sport by one run; I don’t assume it’s in any respect unfair to say that in a sequence that featured the Dodgers’ vaunted three-MVP lineup, plus Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, Teoscar Hernández, and a partridge in a pear tree, it was the younger PCA who singlehandedly turned the tide.

Crow-Armstrong was a well-known prospect as a result of he has a memorable identify and backstory, and he bought drafted by the Mets, a group whose followers usually are not solely quite a few and loud, however tremendous duper regular about their prospects. Crow-Armstrong was a good prospect as a result of he’s a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus glove in middle area, and middle fielders who can put up 20 runs of mixed baserunning and defensive worth in a season may be league-average starters even when they don’t hit a bit of.

If all that sounds acquainted, I’m flattered, as a result of it means you bear in mind one thing I wrote approach again in September. Again then, Crow-Armstrong was within the midst of a scorching streak. Early within the season, he’d been a poor hitter, however he modified his stance and swing halfway by way of the season and improved his offense considerably.

I really wrote about this sort of swing and strategy change earlier this week with respect to Cedric Mullins. Crow-Armstrong is listed at 6-foot tall and 184 kilos, and whereas these dimensions belie the working again’s physique he’s grown into, PCA remains to be a small(ish) quick man. Typical knowledge says that small, quick guys — particularly left-handed ones — ought to gear their swings for contact with a view to take best benefit of their legs. You may beat out a weak grounder and switch a single right into a double by stealing second, however you may’t run your approach out of a strikeout.

That logic is affordable sufficient, however Mullins has made his best leaps as a participant when he’s rejected the short-and-fast-guy strategy and began swinging like the massive canine. PCA is in the course of speedrunning the Mullins developmental curve, cramming about 5 years’ price of evolution into 9 months.

What does that imply from a sensible standpoint? Effectively, first-half PCA was like a Billy Hamilton or a Jacob Younger — an excellent man to have within the area, however somebody you need to disguise on the backside of the lineup. Second-half PCA was like a wealthy man’s Kevin Kiermaier or a sooner Jackie Bradley Jr. — an above-average hitter who nestles up towards All-Star-level complete worth due to bonkers protection at a premium place.

Take a look at that from the Cubs’ perspective. This can be a participant they bought in a rental commerce for Javier Báez, who brought on a significant disaster for the Mets by answering a query actually, then went on to signal with the Tigers. (And since we’re telling harsh truths for the time being, if you happen to requested me which group screwed up the worst by signing a member of the 2016 Cubs, I’d need to assume a minute earlier than answering: The Rockies and Kris Bryant.)

Crow-Armstrong solidifies Chicago’s elite up-the-middle protection with Swanson and Nico Hoerner, and for the reason that Cubs have Tucker, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki to hold the offensive burden, they will get by simply high quality if PCA is merely no. 7 hitter or what have you ever.

However by way of 26 video games, PCA has a 146 wRC+. Over a full season, that will’ve put him between Ketel Marte and Bryce Harper on the leaderboard in 2024. That will render the Kiermaier comp just about irrelevant, as a result of I don’t assume Kiermaier might do this in his prime with a metallic bat.

Again in September, essentially the most optimistic appraisal of Crow-Armstrong’s offense that I might think about was a wRC+ within the 120s, which might’ve translated to about 6 WAR on a per-season foundation, given his protection. Peak Lorenzo Cain was the instance I used on the time.

However what’s the following step? Effectively, since 2000, there are 540 particular person participant seasons by which a participant certified for the batting title whereas primarily enjoying middle area. In 48 of these circumstances, the participant in query registered at the least 15 runs of defensive worth. After I sorted the leaderboard, Franklin Gutierrez’s 2009 marketing campaign whistled to the highest, as if to remind me that defensive stats have been a bit wonky within the not-too-distant previous. Nonetheless, you’ll like this subsequent half.

Crow-Armstrong’s wOBA presently sits at .384. Solely 5 of these mondo defensive seasons got here with a wOBA of .380 or larger.

Attempt to focus on how good Ellsbury and Sizemore have been on the time, and never the truth that they each had their careers minimize brief by harm.

You bought the vapors proper now? I’ve bought the vapors. This might be the second a enjoyable participant turns right into a future MVP, proper? I imply, we haven’t seen a two-way middle fielder like this in additional than a decade.

Crow-Armstrong’s efficiency this season has been thrilling, particularly after he did the rattling factor in a giant sequence towards the heavy World Collection favourite. In a unique sport, the previous two weeks would’ve modified world notion about this participant.

Sadly, I’ve to pump the brakes barely. Definitely, Crow-Armstrong beating the brains out of the Dodgers is nothing however a constructive indicator, however I’d cease in need of saying that it proves he has That Dawg In Him or something like that. Particularly as a result of his underlying numbers, whereas nonetheless spectacular, don’t precisely again up the Zoomer Grady Sizemore comp.

Even taking essentially the most conservative view of PCA’s efficiency, I’d say that he’s solidified the offensive positive factors he made within the second half of 2024. He’s a flat-out higher hitter than somebody like Younger or… I used to be about to say Brenton Doyle however he’s additionally tearing the duvet off the ball for the time being, so possibly I’ll examine in on him later.

However quite than backing up Crow-Armstrong as a true-talent .380 wOBA man, based on xwOBA, PCA is kind of the identical hitter he was eight months in the past. Even since then, he’s making extra contact and higher swing selections, so I’ve no downside believing that there’s one other stage in there. He’s simply not fairly pretty much as good as his floor stats point out thus far this 12 months.

All of that’s absolutely of no consolation to the Dodgers, who can be at the least two video games higher off if Crow-Armstrong had determined to regress to the imply a pair weeks earlier. Is he a star? We’ll see. However he’s undoubtedly produced some star moments.