Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/24

2:02
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
2:02
part 34: Who’s the very best beginning pitcher prone to be out there and which prospects should the Orioles deal to get him?
2:02
Ben Clemens: I imply, the BEST? Crochet
2:02
Ben Clemens: I feel the White Sox are going to need a haul, although, and rightly so
2:03
Ben Clemens: He’s an fascinating case, I’ve been doing lots of due diligence on mover and shaker kind pitchers for the commerce worth record
2:03
Ben Clemens: coming at you on the finish of the month, and so on
2:04
Ben Clemens: I’m actually not fairly positive what to do with guys like him, Skubal, mainly the individuals in Dan’s article right this moment
2:04
Ben Clemens: so okay, Skubal and Crochet are each free brokers after the 2026 season
2:05
Ben Clemens: we predict they’ll each be glorious over these years
2:05
Ben Clemens: like, 8-ish WAR in 2.5 years, that’s a reasonably good projection for a pitcher
2:06
Ben Clemens: but additionally… by the identical projections, Coby Mayo, for instance, is at 8 for these years
2:06
Ben Clemens: I’d commerce Mayo for both of these dudes
2:06
Ben Clemens: however I’m struggling to wrap my head round how the league will behave
2:06
Matt VW: Which fringe-ish pre-Statcast period participant do you would like we had the brand new numbers on? I would like Wily Mo Pena exit velocities.
2:07
Ben Clemens: We’ve talked about this one earlier than, and sure, it’s Wily Mo after which I might love bat monitoring on Bonds
2:07
Ben Clemens: his homers per swing bought so ludicrous at his steroid-aided peak
2:07
Ben Clemens: like, it will simply be a spectacle
2:07
Stephen: So Volpe appears to be a median hitter up to now (sizzling begin and trending down in direction of 100 wRC+, not nice statcast sliders). How assured are you that he’ll turn out to be a superb hitter?
2:08
Ben Clemens: I’m above common assured that he’ll find yourself within the 100-120 wRC+ vary
2:08
Ben Clemens: which is nice for a plus defensive shortstop
2:08
Ben Clemens: I feel there’s little or no debate on that entrance, btw
2:08
Ben Clemens: baserunning and protection dude with marginally plus hitting, he’s like Lindor Lite
2:09
Ben Clemens: works for me!
2:09
bigtimetimmyjim: giants homestand regarded good! I really feel just like the ahmed properly center infield combo is best than the properly estrada proper now, any ideas on that?
2:09
Ben Clemens: I used to be at two of the video games and watched many of the relaxation, feeling very Giants-y of late
2:09
Ben Clemens: man, that is powerful
2:09
Ben Clemens: unusually i really feel just like the one it’s important to play is Correctly?
2:10
Ben Clemens: the otehr two can’t hit
2:10
Ben Clemens: i would want Correctly SS Estrada 2B although
2:10
Ben Clemens: I can’t fairly discuss myself into Ahmed
2:10
Nate: Is Paul Skenes a prime 10 pitcher but
2:10
Visitor: Any hope that the Nats might signal Soto?
2:10
Ben Clemens: I hope that is Cheng, in that case hello
2:10
Ben Clemens: if not, although…. I imply, it’s throughout the realm of risk
2:11
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose it’s probably, nevertheless it will get much more probably if the Yankees do worse than anticipated adn the Nats have a loopy good second half
2:11
Kevin: What have you learnt or think about groups may be doing with synthetic intelligence instruments? Have you ever heard of anybody digging in to this subject?
2:11
Ben Clemens: There was a very good sequence on rising velo within the Athletic final week
2:11
Ben Clemens: I’d extremely suggest studying that
2:12
Ben Clemens: I’m unsure to what extent that is mirrored throughout the sport however that they had some interviews with the Driveline of us speaking about utilizing AI to attempt to develop optimized pitching mechanics
2:12
Princess Leia: Assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!

Begin Bregman or Large Royce Lewis in a H2H factors this week?

And is it time to chop Carroll for Wyatt Langford in the identical league?

2:12
Ben Clemens: I couldn’t lower Carroll, however I’d strat Royce I feel
2:12
Vladdy G: Vladdy lower his hair on June 19 and is slashing 409/435/932 with 6 HR and a wRC+ of 282 since then.  If he shaved his head utterly, what would these numbers appear like?
2:12
Ben Clemens: I’m guessing… 282 wRC+
2:13
Ben Clemens: Vladdy Samson is a enjoyable story, although
2:13
Ben Clemens: I’m rooting for it to maintain going
2:13
Datt Mamon: Heliot Ramos – actual, sustainable, and so on.?
2:13
Ben Clemens: I wrote about him final week (I feel? possibly two weeks in the past)
2:14
Ben Clemens: Primarily I feel that it’s on the entire actual, I feel he’s made some significant changes since his prospect star pale
2:14
Ben Clemens: I do suppose that he’s going to undergo some rising pains, although, b/c basically he’s labored out a superb adjustment that’s getting him forward in counts
2:14
Ben Clemens: however pitchers will most likely toss stuff new at him
2:14
DBRuns: Cleveland’s catchers rank 2nd in MLB in WAR (massive shock, to me). Is {that a} results of counting all 211 of David Fry’s PAs in direction of catcher WAR? Or are solely these PA/innings behind the plate counted?
2:14
Ben Clemens: okay so, I don’t see that?
2:14
Ben Clemens: right here’s our leaderboard with positional break up ‘as C’
2:15
Ben Clemens: it has cleveland tenth, with 57 PA and 1 WAR from Fry there
2:15
Ben Clemens: ah yeah, use ‘positional break up’ and never ‘major place’
2:15
Ben Clemens: if you wish to solely depend after they’re on the spot
2:16
Ben Clemens: now we have each so that you just don’t must do dumb issues like take a look at the record of catcher WAR and have adley lacking b/c he DH’s
2:16
Ben Clemens: however I like utilizing positional break up after I’m taking a look at groups
2:16
Damaged Bat: It positive does get messy when your staff underperforms for just a few straight years… So the present main underachievers appear to be the Jays and Cubs. They each have their GM’s in place for a number of years, and  Each groups have had some accidents however IMO the basis chase of steady frustration is roster building. I think about each GM’s really feel the warmth. They’re between a rock and a tough place. How do both or each of them salvage something by staying the course and never buying and selling for prospects or buying and selling for the prospects. It nearly looks as if each of them regardless are useless males strolling. Profitable, is that the one factor that can,hold,Atkins or Hoyer employable as GM?
2:16
Ben Clemens: employable as a GM? I don’t actually suppose so
2:17
Ben Clemens: individuals appear to be extra re-employable than I’d count on
2:17
Ben Clemens: that stated, I feel that solely successful can repair each of those conditions. if the Cubs lurch again right into a rebuild, why would you retain Hoyer? And the Jays put collectively this grand decade-long plan and effectively, if it doesn’t bear fruit, possibly somebody new ought to take the helm
2:18
Ben: Are there any lifelike patrons for Lane Thomas?
2:18
Ben Clemens: i believe so, however I feel the market is gonna be fairly delicate
2:18
Ben Clemens: I’m avoiding particular commerce proposals in right this moment’s chat, b/c we’re gonna do sufficient of these as we get later into July
2:18
Ben Clemens: however I feel that Thomas has simply gotten too near the top of staff management to be an enormous commerce piece
2:19
Ben Clemens: and he’s enjoying nearly completely within the nook, now, so there are lots of these varieties with higher bats out there
2:19
War2D2: The Cubs appear to only be a nasty staff at this level. What would you do should you had been of their sneakers? They’ve a deep farm system with lots of 45FVs, however not lots of 55FVs. Would you empty a few of it out for a Mason Miller/Robert Jr./and so on “massive” transfer, or dump guys like Cody Bellinger and different short-term property for…extra 45FV guys? I suppose? Looks like they’re each in an honest place, and in addition not one to simply transfer out of.
2:19
Ben Clemens: I feel I’d simply keep the course, to be trustworthy
2:19
Ben Clemens: I don’t actually suppose that making a giant transfer is sensible, though I suppose Robert might change my thoughts on that
2:20
Ben Clemens: I feel that one factor that groups who haven’t put all of it collectively but under-appreciate is that having a giant mass of fine however not nice prospects will increase the probabilities of a breakout someplace
2:20
Ben Clemens: in the event that they fall utterly out of the race, positive commerce leases for some prospects which can be’nt on the 40
2:21
Ben Clemens: however eh, I truly like the general building of the Cubs org
2:21
War2D2: re: Statcast for oldy-old occasions, I’d need Statcast on historic fireballers like Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan. Joe Posnanski made daring claims in his “Baseball 100” that he thought Satchel Paige was throwing 100+, and I’m guessing it’s extra just like the league was throwing 80 and he was throwing 90 and it regarded like 100.
2:21
Ben Clemens: yeah! I used to be pondering extra individuals inside my lifetime
2:21
Ben Clemens: Rickey Henderson dash pace
2:21
Ben Clemens: Babe Ruth exit velo, the break on Sweet Cummings, the inventor of the curveball
2:21
wheelhouse: how for much longer do i’ve to observe anthony volpe, leadoff hitter? and whose job was it to listen to him say “I’m gonna flatten my swing to hit the ball on the bottom extra” and never strap him to the Clockwork Orange rig with movies of Alex Bregman till he recants?
2:21
Ben Clemens: oh man, now THIS take I agree with wholeheartedly
2:22
Ben Clemens: Volpe will probably be at his greatest if his offense developments in a Bregman path
2:22
Ben Clemens: that’s not a leadoff hitter
2:22
ResumeMan: Been to any Ballers video games? We’ve been to 2 and it was good enjoyable (although would most likely be much more enjoyable if we might hit a recreation that wasn’t a blowout loss…)
2:22
Ben Clemens: No, however I’m planning on it later this summer time
2:23
Ben Clemens: Going to a Stompers recreation in July too
2:23
bosoxforlife: Has Jackson Merrill moved forward within the NL ROY? I simply watched him tear the Purple Sox aside and was astonished by how good he’s.
2:23
Ben Clemens: So, sure, nevertheless it’s going to rely closely on Skenes
2:23
Ben Clemens: and Yamamoto, obv, however I feel particularly Skenes
2:23
Ben Clemens: there’s additionally that complete you’re by no means nearly as good as you take a look at your neatest thing
2:24
Ben Clemens: Merrill’s energy has been a shock
2:24
Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical that he’s gonna stick with it, however I’ve been very impressed by the bat to ball
2:24
Ben Clemens: which I used to be speculated to be impressed by, in fact
2:24
Pirates: Why did the Pirates DFA a damaged, however serviceable Roansy Contreras, then substitute him on the staff with absolutely the worst from the waiver wire? GMBC says they’re betting on pitch traits they like. Are the traits how the rainbow shot seems off the opposite groups bat? Marvel at this stat line, Ben Heller: 2 IP, 49.50 ERA (14.16 FIP), **20 TBF**
2:24
Ben Clemens: I actually don’t know
2:24
Ben Clemens: I used to be stunned they gave up on Contreras within the rotation, not to mention general
2:25
Derek: To not be overly pedantic (truly, exactly to be overly pedantic), that is actually Vladdy Nega-Samson – his hair was holding him again, not giving him energy!
2:25
Ben Clemens: Oh wow yeah, glorious level
2:25
Ben Clemens: dunno why I believed that method
2:26
bdubs: Two gamers who got here out of nowhere this 12 months: India and Josh Smith. Which is extra prone to hold it going ROS? The Fangraph projections tilt in direction of Smith however love India’s house park. You?
2:27
Ben Clemens: if we’re speaking fantasy worth, I’m on India, however truthfully each face some enjoying time crunches and I’d most likely be seeking to deal both if somebody was
2:27
Ben Clemens: Matt McLain clearly deserves a spot in Cincy, and he’ll get one
2:28
Ben Clemens: it’s gonna end in a jam, I’m not saying India will get pinched but when he struggles time will dry up
2:29
Ben Clemens: I feel it’s not fairly as unhealthy on teh Rangers however the issue with Smith is that realistically, you’re relying on his protection to present you a ground on his worth given his slap hitting tendencies
2:29
Ben Clemens: So when Josh Jung comes again….
2:29
Ben Clemens: like, are the Rangers actually gonna run out Smith in an outfield nook?
2:30
Ben Clemens: that’s mainly the place they’ve availability. I feel they are going to. However I fear that if he will get chilly, he’ll flip right into a platoon man quick
2:31
Oaktown Blues: Jacob Wilson has a .411 cumulative minor league BA. He batted .455 in AA, bought a promotion, and is batting .447 in AAA (ISO over .200 at each ranges). Scouts suppose he’ll keep at SS. Shouldn’t this man be getting extra prime prospect hype?
2:32
Ben Clemens: trying by his statcast stuff now
2:33
Ben Clemens: I imply, it’s a matter of diploma, it appears to me
2:33
Ben Clemens: now we have him as a prime 100 man, second within the system behind Miller (so #1 now)
2:33
Ben Clemens: similar with mlb.com
2:34
Ben Clemens: I feel the rationale he’s not getting like completely shoved is that he has actually low uncooked energy
2:35
Ben Clemens: there’s simply not loads there by way of loud contact. however he’s additionally solely 51 PA into his triple-a profession
2:36
Ben Clemens: in order that’s extraordinarily early to say something
2:36
Ben Clemens: I’ll say, I’m usually in on these bat management no-Okay guys, and I predictably actually like Wilson
2:36
Ben Clemens: however he must hit some extra bombs if I’m gonna put him on the VERY prime of the record
2:36
MilwakeeBeerjays: Hey Ben. What’s your favorite dinosaur?
2:36
Ben Clemens: nice query, BeerJays
2:36
Ben Clemens: it’s a stegosaurus
2:37
Ben Clemens: I actually like these dorsal spines, and I like that (as of after I cared extra about dinosaurs, a minimum of) we didn’t actually know what they had been for
2:37
Ben Clemens: love just a little thriller
2:37
War2D2: Rickey already know what Rickey’s dash pace was. FAST. Rickey already know he quick.
2:37
Oddball Herrera: So  right here’s the factor with Ramos out of your article, and I feel it brings up an fascinating common query.  Each time I see a man who has finished an method change, I fear that he’s merely “ambushing” pitchers, and people pitchers will finally regulate (see Ramos’ final two weeks).  On the spectrum of “breakout/sustainability indicators” there are a bunch of stats I’d be extra comfy with than a “I’m going to start out swinging at first pitches” kind change, which looks as if it’d liable to turning right into a recreation of whack-a-mole
2:38
Ben Clemens: Yeah…. I imply I feel that’s all the time price eager about
2:38
Ben Clemens: I’d flip it on you, htough
2:38
Ben Clemens: to me, what was occurring is that pitchers had been ambushing Ramos
2:38
Ben Clemens: flip in a curveball and get forward to take advantage of his swing and miss tendencies with out having to problem him within the zone to get forward
2:38
Ben Clemens: b/c they simply assumed he wouldn’t swing
2:39
Ben Clemens: now he’s forcing them to pitch him straight up, with out the little cheat code delicate curve
2:39
Ben Clemens: now, he bought plenty of these cheapie hits off of these, don’t get me flawed
2:39
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose that half is sustainable, they’re not gonna hold lobbing them in there
2:40
Ben Clemens: however I feel he’s a reasonably good hitter when he’s getting pitched straight up. His model of hitter does loads higher forward within the depend than behind, and groups had been preying on that early in his profession
2:40
Ben Clemens: it’s not like he’s simply blindly hacking at first pitches
2:40
Ben Clemens: he’s simply going up there pondering that if he sees one thing delicate and excessive, he’s gonna take a giant rip
2:41
Ben Clemens: truthfully I feel that extra hitters ought to do one thing concerning the in-zone delicate breaking ball for strike one pattern
2:41
Half Road: Ideas on James Wooden?
2:41
Unusual Angel: I’m positive it’s been requested, however what’s your ground/ceiling expectation for James Wooden this season and long-term?
2:42
Ben Clemens: Oh man, plenty of James Wooden questions right this moment, as there needs to be
2:42
Ben Clemens: I’m very hyped
2:42
Ben Clemens: I’m extraordinarily Group Wooden, I bought ridiculed for having him as my prime prospect subsequent 12 months
2:43
Ben Clemens: and possibly ridiculed is robust, however plenty of derisive feedback
2:43
Ben Clemens: I’m not a giant ground ceiling man
2:43
Ben Clemens: however how about latter-day Joey Gallo ground, Tyler O’Neill median, Aaron Choose ceiling
2:44
Ben Clemens: I’m actually into it, and I feel that guys like Wooden are the sorts of prospects who flip into generational gamers
2:44
Ben Clemens: not all the time, clearly
2:44
sonny: The issue with turning Volpe into Bregman is that he tried that, it didn’t work. Folks underestimate how exhausting it’s to be a RH pull hitter in Yankee Stadium. Take a look at the ghost of Josh Donaldson for what it seems like while you promote out for pull energy and also you’re not Stanton/Choose robust.
2:45
Ben Clemens: I disagree with that
2:45
Ben Clemens: Yankee Stadium constantly has excessive HR park components for righty hitters
2:46
Ben Clemens: and that’s not some fluke of Choose enjoying there and on the street, it holds true when he’s not enjoying, and so on.
2:47
Ben Clemens: like… Donaldson left and went to Milwaukee and was nonetheless unhealthy
2:47
Ben Clemens: the factor that occurred to him is that he bought previous
2:47
MilwakeeBeerjays: RE: Dinosaurs
2:47
MilwakeeBeerjays: Scales or feathers?
2:47
Ben Clemens: You understand, scales in my head. Despite the fact that I do know they’re extra prone to be feathers
2:48
Ben Clemens: you possibly can’t erase my childhood view of issues
2:48
metsetradio: With two positions conceivably up for grabs subsequent 12 months for the Mets (2nd and third) What do you do with all of those infield prospects should you’re David Stearns (Mauricio, Baty, Vientos, Jett, Acuna, and so on)? Who’re you seeking to hold and who’re you buying and selling for pitching?
2:48
Ben Clemens: what I might do is hold all of them till a minimum of one establishes himself within the majors
2:48
Ben Clemens: presumably two
2:49
Ben Clemens: mainly I just like the implied optionality worth you get from having a bunch of fairly good prospects
2:49
Ben Clemens: if that they had a single extremely elite dude I’d be extra fascinated with dealing from my surplus
2:49
Ben Clemens: however I feel it is a power in numbers scenario
2:49
Visitor: It’s not prone to occur, however how enjoyable would a Dodgers Rays mega deal be? Dodgers get Paredes, Caballero, and Palacio, and Rays get Lux, Outman, Vargas, and a few mixture of catching and pitching prospects (Dashing, Cartaya, Wrobeleski, Damage, Frasso). Dodgers get long run help at 3B and SS, the place they don’t actually have too many inside choices, and the Rays get future upgrades at positions they don’t actually have prospects for and get a pair gamers who’ve had current success that they will flip in the event that they begin to hit once more.
2:50
Ben Clemens: This sounds very fascinating, and I offer you kudos for the commerce building. Everybody on each side is each very Dodgers-y and really Rays-y
2:51
Ben Clemens: Um…. I imply for me it’d be very enjoyable
2:51
Ben Clemens: I really like MANY of those gamers
2:52
Ben Clemens: I feel that the Dodgers most likely don’t want Palacios sufficient to make this deal occur, and my sense from speaking to individuals throughout the business is that even now, groups usually are not bought on Paredes
2:52
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna get much less pushback after I ship my record out this 12 months b/c I’m lastly not going to ship it out with Paredes within the prime 50, haha
2:52
Ben Clemens: though truthfully possibly I nonetheless ought to
2:53
Ben Clemens: he simply continues to mash
2:53
Ben Clemens: however mainly, I feel to make this commerce the Dodgers must worth Paredes extra extremely than I feel they do
2:53
Unusual Angel: Random thought on that Rays-Dodgers commerce, how a lot worse is Paredes within the bigger Dodger stadium? It looks as if his success relies on pulled XBHs that wouldn’t essentially work in an even bigger stadium
2:53
Ben Clemens: rational cause to not commerce for him
2:53
Big Gonzales: After a 12 months and a half of doing this, has Jarren Duran established himself as a MLB beginning OF, who presumably will get an All Star nod this 12 months? Older prospect who revamped his swing throughout covid and struggled with going up/all the way down to AAA afterwards, he’s been an enormous cause BOS continues to be hanging within the playoff image this 12 months.
2:54
Ben Clemens: utterly established
2:54
Ben Clemens: ZiPS is skeptical about him…. and thinks he’s a legit beginning outfielder with upside
2:55
Ben Clemens: I might see him possibly getting an AS nod this 12 months, he’s been electrical
2:55
DJ Tofu: What do you suppose is a good commerce for the Giants to get Coby Mayo?
2:55
Ben Clemens: I dunno, this doesn’t sound like a factor that might occur
2:55
Ben Clemens: the Giants are the precise sort of staff that don’t line up effectively with the O’s
2:55
Ben Clemens: they’re like a model of Baltimore turned down 10%
2:55
Ben Clemens: no big roster holes however not sufficient distinction makers
2:56
Ben Clemens: just like the Giants’ greatest commerce chips are Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey
2:56
Ben Clemens: however they aren’t buying and selling these guys
2:57
Ben Clemens: and I don’t suppose you may make a deal round Camilo Doval that is sensible
2:57
Ben Clemens: so I simply don’t see a match right here
2:57
Pat: Skubal for Jackson Holliday- Who says No?
2:57
Ben Clemens: Sizzling take: the O’s say no, however they shouldn’t
2:58
Ben Clemens: Holliday’s line within the minors in June is SO bizarre
2:58
Ben Clemens: .444 OBP, .378 SLG
2:59
Ben Clemens: wtf is occurring right here, ?
2:59
Ben Clemens: since coming again down he’s hitting .252/.425/.421, and I simply don’t suppose these stroll abilities are clearly gonna play
2:59
Ben Clemens: within the majors
2:59
Ben Clemens: 23% stroll price, i imply….
2:59
Ben Clemens: I dunno I’m nonetheless very optimistic
3:00
Ben Clemens: however I don’t suppose he’s a surefire all star, and Skubal is true now
3:00
Ben Clemens: I acknowledge that this places me in an odd spot as an evaluator
3:00
Ben Clemens: If you happen to’re counting anticipated WAR, even should you do some non-linear formed stuff to make avearge gamers much less useful and stars higher, Holliday simply tops Skubal
3:00
Ben Clemens: however I simply don’t suppose it performs that method in actual life
3:00
MilwakeeBeerjays: It’s gotta be feathers proper? Jurassic Park, whereas being one of many probably the most entertaining motion pictures ever, has pushed the scaled agenda for years. Do your *RESEARCH* individuals.
3:01
Ben Clemens: Look, it’s nearly definitely feathers. Simply, scales regarded so cool in all my children’ books
3:01
Ben Clemens: that stated, my theoretical future youngster will probably be getting the proper modern-day data from me in order that htey don’t develop up residing a lie like I did
3:01
Hunter: Let’s say Spencer Torkelson comes again up after the all star break and mainly reproduces his second half from final 12 months (120ish WRC+, 25ish HRs). What would you do with him?
3:01
Ben Clemens: I’d give him one other shot however with a very brief leash
3:01
Ben Clemens: er, effectively, no, 25 bombs after the ASB is wild
3:02
Ben Clemens: he had 19 final 12 months it seems like
3:02
Ben Clemens: I’m…. I’m fairly out on Tork to be trustworthy
3:03
Ben Clemens: I believed Dan’s article about him was excellent
3:03
Dan: When a pitcher adjustments their supply and to a lessor extent when a hitter adjustments his swing it surprises me they’re as profitable as they’re. Isn’t a big a part of why they’re profitable that they’ve apply the pitch/swing a whole bunch of 1000’s of occasions? It not like you possibly can simply inform a world class athlete (from one other sport) how one can swing a bat and count on them to be aggressive on the MLB stage.
3:04
Ben Clemens: I’ve considered this loads
3:04
Ben Clemens: and I feel that the important thing right here is that MOST of the issues they’re doing with the brand new supply or swing are the identical
3:04
Ben Clemens: and that in reality, the very best coaches do a very good job of retaining the necessary components constant
3:06
Ben Clemens: so like…. possibly you alter your arm slot barely however the swing and the followthrough really feel so comparable that it’s high quality
3:06
Ben Clemens: I feel that elite athletes are good at repeating motions for positive, however they’re additionally adaptable inside these motions
3:06
J: If you got an opportunity to start out a brand new growth staff what kind of talent would you base your staff round to attempt to acquire edge?
3:07
Ben Clemens: I feel I’d a)spend lots of time hiring developmenet workers
3:07
Ben Clemens: and b) I’m me, so I’d be looking out for the subsequent technology of both Paredes/Schneider varieties or Betts/JRam varieties
3:08
Ben Clemens: like clearly everyone seems to be. however as an growth staff I’d attempt to spend extra of my sources than regular on these guys
3:08
Ben Clemens: I feel that from a useful resource expenditure to attainable massive league return perspective, there’s some juice there
3:08
bosoxforlife: I had an expertise in golf with one in all my greatest juniors. He was recruited closely and went to a prime faculty golf program. Instantly the coach despatched him to a brand new coach and very quickly couldn’t break 80. True idiocy!
3:08
Ben Clemens: feels like the brand new coach wasn’t the best one
3:08
Okra: Possibilities that Strider, Acuna, Olsen all had their profession greatest seasons final 12 months? 80%?  90%?  Hurts that Atlanta didn’t capitalize
3:08
Ben Clemens: blah, I used to be trying into Strider’s long-term projections earlier right this moment
3:09
Ben Clemens: I feel that Olson and Acuna having their greatest years are fairly probably
3:09
Ben Clemens: simply b/c these had been AMAZING years
3:09
Ben Clemens: I’m much less bought on Strider
3:09
Ben Clemens: the factor is, if he comes again wholesome, I feel he might simply be ’23 Strider
3:10
Ben Clemens: so I’m gonna say in mixture, 50%?
3:10
Ben Clemens: like possibly a kind of different two spikes a season
3:10
Ben Clemens: however Strider nonetheless tasks as unbelievable when wholesome
3:10
Ben Clemens: I feel he might spike a wholesome good season fairly simply
3:10
Greatest 12 months!: “I feel that Olson and Acuna having their greatest years are fairly probably

simply b/c these had been AMAZING years.” I keep in mind that individuals stated this about 2017 Choose

3:11
Ben Clemens: that’s why I stated ‘fairly probably’ as an alternative of 0%
3:11
Ben Clemens: I’m only a hedger at coronary heart
3:11
Derek: How effectively do you suppose an growth staff run by all the present FanGraphs workers would fare? My intestine tells me the reply could be a minimum of “fairly effectively”, and possibly higher!
3:11
Ben Clemens: Haha, I’m not very modest, so I’d say we’ll do effectively
3:11
Ben Clemens: we’d* do effectively
3:11
Ben Clemens: that stated, I do like the large dispersal of skills now we have. We now have modelers, scouts, mechanics-type individuals
3:12
Ben Clemens: I suppose now we have me? I’m unsure what class I slot in
3:12
Ben Clemens: Appelman is an excellent general determination maker, so is Meg, I feel they’d do a superb job on the prime of the org
3:12
JK: One factor I actually recognize about FanGraphs, and also you, is the pattern of “course of over outcomes”. How usually do you want to see unhealthy outcomes earlier than you concentrate on course of change?
3:12
Ben Clemens: on this subject!
3:13
Ben Clemens: I’m cognizant that I lean an excessive amount of on course of at occasions. I feel that the very best you are able to do is basically deal with updating your priors. A factor that I attempt to do after I’m doing extra long-term evaluations of gamers, significantly for the commerce worth sequence, is to individually do evaluations of individuals primarily based on what I feel proper now
3:13
Ben Clemens: and take a look at my previous evals and ZiPS’s evals later
3:14
Ben Clemens: then sort of hone in on the place there are massive variations and check out to determine whether or not I’m simply being weirdly biased
3:14
Ben Clemens: I suppose I’d say that this goes two methods
3:14
Ben Clemens: on a participant stage, I’m prepared to maneuver extra shortly
3:14
Ben Clemens: b/c you’re getting all this new information
3:14
Ben Clemens: however on a staff building stage, I’m extra fascinated with my prior views, b/c there simply aren’t THAT many observations
3:14
Dan: I don’t suppose the FanGraphs staff is almost large enough to run a baseball staff. If youre only one/4 of the workers are you actually operating the staff and should you’re spending your time company managing as an alternative of scouting, modeling and so on you’re solely tapping a portion of your expertise.
3:14
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah we’d rent massively
3:15
Ben Clemens: nowhere close to large enough
3:15
Ben Clemens: and sure, one factor that’s actually difficult is attempting to determine whether or not persons are higher as particular person contributors or managers
3:15
Ben Clemens: my spouse is a very good supervisor, imo, and off the clock we spend a ton of time speaking about that
3:15
Ben Clemens: I’m a person contributor at coronary heart, so I feel I may not be an excellent match on this theoretical staff
3:16
Ben Clemens: I feel the one factor which may maintain us again is that now we have just a few too many IC’s
3:16
Kirk: Oh the questioning of how prime flight athletes can change mechanics and nonetheless keep good: you largely nailed it. The possibilities are normally small within the precise course of that they will sustain, even when it seems like a giant change to the layman’s eye. The expertise these dudes have additionally helps them keep good, as a result of on the finish of the day they’re nonetheless swinging a bat exhausting or throwing a ball exhausting.

I feel that folks could be stunned at how effectively athletes from different sports activities would pickup baseball, by the best way. It will be tough at first, however should you give somebody like DK Metcalf or Steph Curry (two random athletes off the highest of my head) a problem of “turn out to be a significant leaguer” after which give him on a regular basis and coaching to deal with that, he’d pull it off.

3:16
Ben Clemens: Thanks, web stranger, however yeah, I’m with you
3:16
Ben Clemens: nice athletes are simply ludicrous
3:17
MilwakeeBeerjays: Gunnar Henderson AL MVP 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%?
3:17
Ben Clemens: Properly, 50% is greater than the ceiling of the place I might put this, proper off the highest
3:17
Ben Clemens: I’m not gonna have him forward of Choose, and there are different gamers
3:17
Ben Clemens: I feel I’ve him round 25%
3:17
SkenesMVP2024: There’s been some discuss of the Pirates including 1-2 bats and attempting to make a run on the WC.  Does that sound lifelike to you, or is their offense too putrid for it to make a distinction?
3:18
Ben Clemens: , that was my snap response however I’m gonna give it barely extra thought
3:19
Ben Clemens: okay, I’m gonna replace it to I feel that they need to wait till the top of the month and see the place issues are
3:19
Ben Clemens: like in the event that they’re nonetheless 3 video games out of the WC, and one of many groups forward of them falls behind htem
3:20
Ben Clemens: I feel they possibly can? the factor they’ve going for them is that a few of their offensive underperformance is from gamers I feel are good who simply haven’t been good up to now
3:20
Ben Clemens: there’s a distinction between that and like, okay 7 of the 9 place guys are filler
3:21
Ben Clemens: they undoubtedly want extra offense. however a minimum of a few of that may come from Cruz persevering with to develop, Hayes being simply okay as an alternative of unhealthy, that kinda factor
3:21
Ben Clemens: that stated, I might not be including now
3:21
Ben Clemens: give your self a month to see if a few of these adjustments are literally occurring earlier than deciding
3:22
bigtimetimmyjim: what are your ideas on how efficient properly may be at enjoying shortstop protection? I really feel like he’s been fairly stable up to now however I feel he got here up extra as a 2b
3:22
Ben Clemens: my ideas are that I’ve no clue, however that the Giants want to search out out
3:22
Ben Clemens: alright, on that word, I had a good time chatting with you all right this moment however I’ve to go get shifting on lunch
3:23
Ben Clemens: the man who asks the lunch query, I didn’t see you right this moment, however scrumptious bread from a neighborhood place with herbed goat cheese
3:23
Ben Clemens: and possibly a salad after
3:23
Ben Clemens: have an excellent vacation week, everybody

 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He may be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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