Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s simply dive proper in

Scratch: What main change to baseball can have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and so on)?

Ben Clemens: Variety of fielders, possibly? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, in fact

Visitor: Who would you somewhat guess on panning out?  A prospect who must decrease his Ok charge by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB charge by 5-10%?

Ben Clemens: It is determined by different elements. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d undoubtedly favor the man who hits too many grounders. Research after research reveals that hitters who’re putting out a ton within the low minors simply can’t play on the main league stage generally

Ben Clemens: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout charge. However actually, it’s a type of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ is determined by what stage all else is equal at

Mike: If London got here to MLB and mentioned “We have now an possession group able to pay billions for an enlargement crew AND the town is prepared to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?

Ben Clemens: surprisingly, I don’t assume so

Ben Clemens: I simply assume the journey can be too onerous

Ben Clemens: They clearly perceive how powerful it’s the approach they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play quick collection. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each collection could possibly be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some kind

Ben Clemens: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about really placing a crew there completely

Teaberry: Appears secure to imagine the Phillies are a playoff crew this yr.  What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff sport vs a proper handed pitcher?

Ben Clemens: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl

Ben Clemens: I can’t think about Castellanos within the subject given how he’s enjoying

Ben Clemens: I do know that they’re speaking about enjoying Sosa within the outfield too at instances, so possibly you may have him over Dahl or Rojas?

Braves: What do you assume is inflicting the Braves’ YOY house run decline? Their barrel charge/onerous hit remains to be glorious however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this stage out or is there one thing systemic?

Ben Clemens: I feel a few of it’s gonna stage out, although a few of it’s that they had been unsustainably scorching final yr

Ben Clemens: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the yr

Brian: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I feel we overstate the affect a couple of subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who bought however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have a much bigger affect than particular person gamers.

Ben Clemens: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:

Ben Clemens: However I regarded into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, they usually carry out worse than you’d count on based mostly on a Depth Charts rendering of their talent stage

Brian: How would you assume a Gunnar extension would examine to Witt’s or Riley’s?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’d be fairly related, however i havent’ finished a deep dive to get extra exact than that

Visitor: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and so on.–might this be probably the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in current reminiscence?

Ben Clemens: Properly, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even if you happen to don’t), sure

Ben Clemens: significantly Robert, Bichette, Bregman

Ben Clemens: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s a much bigger star than anybody listed her

Ben Clemens: but when all these guys went, certain

Ben Clemens: I do assume that the Jays are gonna have rather a lot to say about how the commerce deadline goes

Ben Clemens: and the White Sox possibly too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a package deal larger than what WAS received for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which in my view makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect

Ben Clemens: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds glorious

Ben Clemens: However…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23

Ben Clemens: So it’s undoubtedly a longshot {that a} crew would provide that a lot

Derek: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis function?

Ben Clemens: I’d argue that he nearly has, simply that his on a regular basis function is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’

Ben Clemens: if you happen to take a look at his previous couple of weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one individuals getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor

Ben Clemens: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan

Ben Clemens: it’s simply break up in every single place

Insert Witty Title Right here: Just a few chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you get pleasure from watching, and also you mentioned, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched lots of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, if you happen to might watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it had been a tennis match, that means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics might be mentioned later), who would you wish to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.

Ben Clemens: Oh man, what a match yesterday

Ben Clemens: I missed the ladies’s last, however it seems that was effective b/c Swiatek is simply too good

Ben Clemens: however the males’s last was nice

Ben Clemens: deGrom is half of mine for certain

Ben Clemens: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil

Ben Clemens: I by no means received to see Willie Mays play so he’s most likely my choose although

Ben Clemens: or possibly you do one per period

Ben Clemens: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd

Nick Gonzales: Am I on a scorching streak or have I figured some issues out?

Ben Clemens: por que no los dos?

Ben Clemens: I’m without end gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary faculty baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was one of the best hitter in a era (sure, my park elements may need been off)

Ben Clemens: I feel that he’s on an unsustainable contact scorching streak, however that his strategy of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice

Ben Clemens: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase charge slightly, which makes me assume a tailwind in walks and favorable counts might offset a babip slide

Nate: Improbable enhancements to the participant pages – go alongside the reward to the remainder of the employees!

Ben Clemens: I’ve allow them to know

Ben Clemens: and yeah it’s nice!

Princess Leia: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!

Properly, aside from Aaron Choose… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that stoop.

Jeremy: Looks as if groups which might be successful usually persist with replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m pondering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies for example, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to successful groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal achieve in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?

Ben Clemens: This can be a actually onerous query

Ben Clemens: I feel that generally groups would most likely be higher off in the event that they moved on sooner than they really do, however much less shortly than followers assume they need to

Ben Clemens: The explanation for that’s {that a} false optimistic right here hurts extra

Ben Clemens: like, shifting somebody once they weren’t really cooked

MagicOriole: Is Mike Elias one of the best GM in MLB? If not, who’s?

Ben Clemens: I’ve to present it to Alex Anthopoulos

Ben Clemens: I imply, full respect to Elias

Ben Clemens: I’ve written a TON about O’s resolution making previously two years becuase they’ve had lots of fascinating choices

Ben Clemens: and whereas Elias and co most likely began out as being slightly too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably

Ben Clemens: clearly, their dev/acquisition crew is unbelievable as nicely

Ben Clemens: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. Nevertheless it’s simply onerous to knock what the Braves maintain doing

Visitor: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t have a particular reply, however 50 years is a very long time

Tigers fan: Tatis Jr. has been wanting higher currently…do you assume he ever will get again to 2021 kind?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s undoubtedly doable

Ben Clemens: the man is only a spectacular athlete

Ben Clemens: i don’t assume he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t assume anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation

Ben Clemens: however by way of being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and glorious protection/baserunning to associate with it, sure

Smiling Politely: Is it reasonable to presume that Alonso could be satisfactory in a nook OF and subsequently have much more TV to contenders?

Ben Clemens: I hate to say it, however no

Ben Clemens: I don’t purchase that he might deal with a nook outfield spot

Ben Clemens: a)it’d must be left, b)I nonetheless assume it’d be Hoskins-esque

Visitor: What do you assume has been one of the best free agent contract of greater than 100 million?  Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m certain I’m forgetting some good candidates.

Ben Clemens: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is definitely within the working. A Rod and Harper are good ones

Ben Clemens: I’m wanting via a listing proper now

Ben Clemens: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer most likely will get my vote for the general finest

TPham: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he mentioned about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.

Ben Clemens:

Shota Imanaga: SHOTA.  IMANAGA.

Phil: If gamers beneath 5’7″ received an additional strike, would Altuve be one of the best participant in baseball?

M’s Fan: Are hitters who crush off velocity and breaking balls gonna change into extra precious because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?

Ben Clemens: A little bit. However I feel pitchers can even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, mainly simply specialize extra

Ben Clemens: so their major edge might be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less

bosoxforlife: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?

Ben Clemens: I feel the O’s will find yourself successful it, really, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters

Colton: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be one of the best hitter in a era out of faculty as nicely haha

Ben Clemens: I imply his stats had been so outrageous that even whenever you modify for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they had been nonetheless otherworldly

bosoxforlife: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t wish to watch this

Visitor: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a yr, together with all his time in school.  Would that meaningfully cut back his commerce worth for a contender trying to purchase him this yr?

Jon Lester: I feel my $155 mil contract turned out fairly nicely….

Jeremy: Re: finest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally wanting good up to now.

Visitor: Greatest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?

SpicieBoy: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat

Ben Clemens: boy, I really don’t know if I can repair that

Visitor: So, Ben… are you continue to nervous about Jose Ramirez?

Ben Clemens: as a substitute, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel

Visitor: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has one of the best likelihood to dethrone one in every of them?

Ben Clemens: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?

Ben Clemens: somebody might get scorching within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t identify

Nic: So Aaron Choose…. how is that this attainable? After 2022 I feel all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+)  once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this stage of hitter? Is he one of the best since Bonds?

Ben Clemens: So, I’m doing a challenge for tomorrow the place I graph totally different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle

Ben Clemens: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and so on.

Ben Clemens: Choose’s graph is simply ludicrous

Ben Clemens: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air

Ben Clemens: what a monswer

KM: Do you assume Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 sport energy grade? He’s solely 22 however it simply looks like he can by no means raise the ball.

Ben Clemens: nah, I don’t. I do actually assume he has 80 uncooked although

Visitor: I’ve been excited about your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to count on a lot from them. I imply I’m certain there are at all times counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 reveals that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise

Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs received the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was enjoying nicely within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had lots of good prospects on the time)

Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski under the caliber of prospects you had been contemplating?

Additionally most likely value noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so could dissuade related habits from different groups

Ben Clemens: Wesneski was undoubtedly under the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time

Ben Clemens: I’m wanting over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction

Ben Clemens: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system

Ben Clemens: so like, possibly I’m utilizing the unsuitable prospect grades? However I feel that groups definitely discounted Yankee arms who all of a sudden gained velo after being drafted

Champdo: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so

Ben Clemens: When are you planning on being good if you happen to maintain buying and selling your good gamers?

I need my child again child again child again: if the jays find yourself really buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Making an attempt to determine who in competition wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?

Ben Clemens: I undoubtedly assume that they’re enjoying him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t assume a giant deal is gonna get finished, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that precious on the deadline

Ben Clemens: so there’s this bizarre state of affairs the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ can be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers

bosoxforlife: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the stage he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a kind of lifetime achievement award.

Ben Clemens: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis

Ben Clemens: it’s loopy that he by no means received it

New Yanks velo: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?

Ben Clemens: Simply that lots of these guys haven’t regarded almost as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an ideal job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I feel they received Frankie Montas solely for pitchers, kind of

Ben Clemens: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears

Ben Clemens: they did the identical for Soto

Ben Clemens: and I feel in lots of these circumstances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d count on, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’

Visitor: Ben, how outdated is the pre sport win likelihood mannequin as proven within the Dwell Scoreboard?  Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to reinforce predictions?

Ben Clemens: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s undoubtedly easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed based mostly on the posted sport lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)

Huge Reem: Wheeler needs to be proper behind Scherzer on one of the best free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his identify talked about

Ben Clemens: Just a few different individuals pointed him out, and yeah

Ben Clemens: he undoubtedly counts

Visitor: If Scherzer is one of the best free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst?  The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.

Ben Clemens: Oh, absolutely not, b/c the Nats nearly assuredly received lots of insurance coverage funds again

Seiya ain’t So: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump?  Each time he appears to be like like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth.  The protection has been inconsistent.  What’s your tackle his future?

Ben Clemens: man…. I nonetheless assume he’ll

Ben Clemens: regardless of having been unsuitable about this particular factor many instances

Ben Clemens: I completely consider in Seiya

Ben Clemens: and he regarded like he figured all of it out on the finish of final yr, after which nope

Ben Clemens: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that

Ben Clemens: however I assumed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have undoubtedly been a constant downside

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s what he’s at this level, mainly

Farhandrew Zaidman: leaguewide OPS common is under 700….time to panic or not but?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m panicking

Ben Clemens: baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs

SpicieBoy: I assumed the Nats had been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract attributable to his harm historical past

nats fan: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past

Ben Clemens: nicely that makes it worse!

Visitor: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I feel the PA Forecasting could possibly be doubtlessly very flawed. The method of accounting for the best variety of PA’s awarded to every crew based mostly upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting crew goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single sport in opposition to a under common pitching crew than their season common), this stuff trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any concept you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?

Ben Clemens: Let’s simply say that’s low on our checklist, the positioning has had a ton of cool enhancements in recent times however I feel revamping our sport odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them they usually do alright) so as to add slightly shouldn’t be highest precedence

Ben Clemens: that’s probably not my space, I’m only a typically helper

Ben Clemens: however I’d guess there are various issues we’d repair earlier than that

SpicieBoy: Unironically I need MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we had been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a extremely enjoyable time for baseball

Plate self-discipline metrics: Is there a abstract someplace on the positioning of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch information/SIS)?

Plate self-discipline metrics: can there be a abstract of the totally different sources of plate disciple metrics

Ben Clemens: There isn’t however I may give you one right here

Ben Clemens: they measure the strike zone barely otherwise

Ben Clemens: that’s the entire totally different

London Calling: % likelihood Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are probably to get him?

Ben Clemens: I simply have it very low

Plate self-discipline metrics: thanks for answering my butchered query.  Is another correct?  SIS zone appears waaaay totally different

Ben Clemens: I dunno, actually! I similar to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to only use Statcast these daysb/c typically I’m pulling information immediately from Savant

Farhandrew Zaidman: i’ve seen a conspiracy idea that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far

Ben Clemens: I might completely see that

I need my child again child again child again: Relating to the low league extensive OPS, what are your most popular approaches/solutions on easy methods to improve it?

Ben Clemens: I need extra vigorous baseballs. I’d wish to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier sport

New Yanks velo: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats received little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)

SpicieBoy: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and so on) helpful? Baseballsavant has mentioned that they’re meant to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re really typically much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks like an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would let you know would really occurred, a extremely dangerous mannequin would haven’t any foundation in actuality). That looks like lots of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re really helpful. I additionally take excessive challenge with some charge stats (like barrel%) being introduced as per BBE as a substitute of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who lower their Ok% for often weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA

Ben Clemens: Dan did one thing on this

bosoxforlife: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All had been good!

Ben Clemens: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday

Ben Clemens: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad they usually had been abysmal

Choose: “baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs”: And it grew to become private for me (notice: that is what Jordan really mentioned)

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: alright, I’m performing some caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll discuss to you once more subsequent week