Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 2/5/24

2:00
Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
2:01
Ben Clemens: I’ve been fairly dangerous about these this 12 months because of a mixture of technical difficulties on my finish after which simply getting out of the behavior of it, however let’s kick issues again off with one
2:01
David: Hello Ben – may you share your ideas on the present state of the Crimson Sox?
2:01
Ben Clemens: I’m confused about what their plans are, however I believe typically they’re enjoying for the longer term and I believe that’s affordable
2:02
Ben Clemens: It’s not *enjoyable* to try this as a group just like the Crimson Sox, however I believe the best way theyr’e doing it’s good
2:02
Ben Clemens: They are going to be aggressive this 12 months for certain, however with that rotation, they want variety of issues to go proper to make the playoffs
2:03
Ben Clemens: I believe that’s okay, notably since they’re making an attempt out a number of fascinating new lineup additions and have a formidable farm system that’s beginning to trickle as much as the foremost league degree
2:03
Ben Clemens: I believe that in the event that they didn’t signal one of many few huge ticket pitching choices this 12 months, punting their free company strikes till subsequent 12 months made sense
2:03
Ok DOT: Am I loopy to suppose the Cubs have a nonzero likelihood at signing each Belli and Chapman? One on an extended deal, one on a better AAV quick deal a la Correa’s first Twins contract?
2:04
Ben Clemens: Nonzero, for certain. I don’t suppose it’s THAT excessive, although, simply because I don’t see them spending that a lot
2:05
Ben Clemens: I believe it might make sense on condition that the Brewers are principally betting that the Central gained’t be powerful this 12 months
2:05
Ben Clemens: they’ve already downgraded on goal to enhance future years, it’s not like they will un-trade Burnes now
2:05
Ben Clemens: looks as if it’d be time to pivot because the Cubs but it surely’s a kind of I’ll consider it once I see it kinda offers
2:05
the one who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?
2:05
Ben Clemens: oh man, it’s one this time. Do-it-yourself broccoli soften on focaccia
2:06
Rick Manning: Dynasty Keeper League Correa or Neto (trying primairly on the subsequent couple seasons)
2:06
Ben Clemens: I’d maintain Correa however not by a ton
2:06
Ben from DC: Are you able to give me any motive for hope for my Nationals? Each time I learn information concerning the group it’s concerning the house owners not promoting, MASN dispute, Strasburg/proprietor battle, and even prospects like Hassell and Inexperienced flaming out. In case you squint is there any hope with Abrams/Gore/Grey/Wooden/Crews?
2:07
Ben Clemens: Yeah I believe the hope is principally: Abrams has been higher than anticipated. Crews appears superior. Wooden seemed fairly good in AA as a 20 12 months outdated
2:07
Ben Clemens: perhaps this huge group of prospects will pan out spectacularly
2:07
Ben Clemens: I do suppose that the group must get offered, looks as if the Lerners have moved on mentally
2:08
Ben Clemens: And perhaps all of the Alexandria enviornment stuff is creating the form of distraction that retains different DC space enterprise sorts away from bidding on the Nats which slows issues down? Not likely certain if that’s the case or not
2:08
Ben Clemens: However the upside case right here is that simply as all of the expertise from their farm system hits the majors, there’s new possession in place that may’t wait to spend
2:08
RH: Since they have already got Brent Rooker, I believe the A’s ought to simply get as many Mississippi State guys as they will and play in Starkville till Vegas is prepared. At the least it might be enjoyable.
2:08
Ben Clemens: Appears about as palatable as most of their choices.
2:09
Ben Clemens: I’m wondering in the event that they’d contemplate enjoying on the rec league softball subject the place I play
2:09
Ben Clemens: it’s not THAT a lot worse of a enjoying floor than the Coliseum
2:09
Ben Clemens: oh, apart from should you overlook to get the town to show off the nighttime sprinkler schedule, then the third baseman would possibly get soaked
2:09
Tex Fan: IN 2 years Max Scherzer is ?
2:09
Ok DOT: If Kyle Hendricks has a good (~150 innings, barely above common period) season, would you give him the QO?
2:09
Ben Clemens: However I may see it both method
2:10
v2micca: Am I loopy in pondering that if a number of issues break proper for the Reds this 12 months, Cincinnati may legit take the division?  They’ve a strong core in place, and there isn’t a dominant group within the NL Central.
2:10
Ben Clemens: I imply, are they favorites? No
2:10
Ben Clemens: However theyr’e within the combine for certain
2:11
The Different David: How do you’re feeling about Ben Lindbergh and your editor Meg Rowley referring to you as “The Different Ben” on my favourite podcast, Successfully Wild?
2:11
Ben Clemens: Haha I believe it’s very affordable
2:11
Ben Clemens: I listened to EW for a very long time earlier than I began writing about baseball so it’s nonetheless kinda surreal listening to my identify come up in any respect
2:12
Jeremy: Observe-up to the Crimson Sox and Brewers/Cubs questions earlier: to what extent are groups’ selections to rebuild or go all-in depending on the choices of different groups of their division? Are the Crimson Sox retooling partly as a result of, someday within the final 12 months or two, they checked out remainder of the AL East and thought: “The O’s are about to get good, the Jays, Rays, and Yanks are already good. Good time to retool.” Did the Brewers have a look at the remainder of the NL Central and suppose “Good time to commerce Burnes; the Cardinals are retooling and the Cubs don’t look they wish to spend cash but”?
2:12
Ben Clemens: If groups aren’t doing that, they’re doing it fallacious, however I positively consider that it enters their minds
2:13
Ben Clemens: I’m unsure if it’s a primary driver of  selections or something, however groups completely  take divisional issue and the form of future groups under consideration
2:13
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s kinda powerful in Boston’s case b/c let’s be actual, the ALE goes to be a buzzsaw of a division in 5 years similar to it’s now
2:14
Ben Clemens: however Milwaukee has completed a reasonably good job of being opportunistic and pivoting round what’s occurring within the central. I believe the Twins do job of this as effectively. The Diamondbacks getting extra aggressive this offseason is one other good instance
2:14
diadem: Do projections keep in mind the OBP of the hitters in entrance of them?
2:14
Ben Clemens: Undoubtedly not
2:14
Insert Witty Identify Right here: We missed you Ben. Trying ahead to an excellent 2024 season. That being mentioned, curious to know what about baseball will get you jazzed up essentially the most?
2:14
Ben Clemens: I looooooove defensive highlights
2:15
Ben Clemens: I’m actually excited for a 12 months of Masyn Winn
2:15
Keith: Stunned on the Witt extension?
2:15
Mike: Probabilities the Witt contract is backloaded, given the decide outs included?
2:15
Ben Clemens: I’m a bit shocked I suppose, however I’ve been the low man on Witt for a very long time and I’m fairly certain I nonetheless underrate him at the same time as I maintain making an attempt to replace my priors
2:15
Ben Clemens: I would like a bit extra time for it to sink in
2:15
Chaco: Any rumors or insights on Blake Snell’s potential touchdown spot?
2:15
Rooster Strip: Does the Giants’ commerce of Ross (“Rooster Strip”) Stripling portend some motion on the free agent market? Looks as if they beautiful a lot should exit and signal a number of SPs, proper? And they might look much more aggressive for a wild card spot if additionally they had been capable of signal Chapman.
2:16
Ben Clemens: I believe that Snell to SF seems extra possible with buying and selling Stripling
2:16
Ben Clemens: it’d simply be a bizarre transfer to make should you weren’t planning on backfilling, even when:
2:16
Nate: All of his stats and peripherals counsel Keaton Winn is the following Logan Webb. Am I out of my thoughts for pondering he’s an enormous underdog in that rotation?
2:16
Ben Clemens: I positively don’t agree with this take!
2:16
Ben Clemens: But when Winn is nice
2:17
Ben Clemens: That will assist
2:17
Ben Clemens: Significantly, although: Logan Webb completely demolished the minors at each cease
2:18
Ben Clemens: Then he reached the majors at 22. Winn scuffled in AA and AAA during the last two years at 24 and 25
2:18
Ben Clemens: I believe that he’s intriguing for certain, however I don’t see him as a lot of a comp for Webb
2:18
Charlie Murphy: I used to be provided Francisco Alvarez and Eury Perez for Jordan Walker. No brainer proper? I’ve to take it.
2:19
Ben Clemens: i don’t know your league settings or something
2:19
Brooks Robin some: Who has a greater season this 12 months amongst these 30 somethings, E. Suarez, M. Chapman, or Rendon?
2:19
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna take Rendon actdually
2:19
Ben Clemens: I believe that may be foolish
2:19
Ben Clemens: however I’m kinda down on Chapman and I believe I do know what I’m getting with Suarez, which is an above common common however nothing extra
2:19
The Different Ben in DC: On a scale of Nutting to Guggenheim, what kind of proprietor do you anticipate Rubenstein to be?
2:19
Ben Clemens: I believe above common however not Cohen/Guggenheim tier by any means
2:20
Ben Clemens: I get the lol personal fairness argument, however folks had been making that about Peter Seidler too
2:20
Ben Clemens: rising up within the space issues rather a lot
2:21
Ben Clemens: and while you take over a group at 74, and also you’re simply wildly rich, why would you not wish to make it good?
2:21
Ok DOT: @Feinsand

Bobby Witt Jr.’s extension:

2024: $2M
2025: $7M
2026: $13M
2027:  $19M
2028: $30M
2029: $35M
2030: $35M
2031: $35M – participant possibility
2032: $35M – participant possibility
2033: $35M – participant possibility
2034: $35M – participant possibility

Membership possibility 3 years/$89M:
2035: $33M
2036: $28M
2037: $28M

2:21
Ben Clemens: Yeah, this can be a good construction for Witt
2:22
Ben Clemens: I like these sorts of extensions a LOT, I really feel like we’ve gotten to a spot the place groups and gamers can negotiate early-career extensions with out them being excessively one-sided (in both course)
2:22
norm: Who you bought difficult the Twins this 12 months for the central Tigers or CLE? I believe each of them are form of sneaky fascinating and Twins pitching depth doesn’t persuade me
2:22
Ben Clemens: I like what they’ve been doing
2:23
Ben Clemens: Think about them with Isaac Paredes (probably not but it surely’s simply enjoyable to maintain pointing that one out)
2:23
Cody Bellinger: Does it actually make sense for the cubs to signal me to any form of long run deal, even when it is available in with a decrease AAV than boras needs?
2:23
Ben Clemens: In my view? Completely
2:25
Visitor: Twins followers in all places tremendous excited to see the promise to reinvest the Polanco financial savings has netted them….a 37 12 months outdated DH
2:25
Ben Clemens: Given the dimensions of the financial savings, I’m unsure what you anticipated
2:26
Ben Clemens: That mentioned, I believe it’s a reasonably good transfer
2:26
Ben Clemens: The Twins don’t spend as a lot as I’d like them to
2:26
Ben Clemens: however I really feel like few groups do a greater job of profitable trades with out donig the entire ‘we’ll commerce you 1 / 4 in the present day for 4 dime-level prospects’ deal the place you possibly can’t assist however win
2:27
Ben Clemens: and I believe that additionally they do job of then integrating these trades into their group
2:27
Ben Clemens: I like the place they’re headed principally
2:27
Doug: Padres actually going to fill their OF/DH spots with NRI sorts and prospects which have barely performed above A ball and will probably be out of place?
2:27
Ben Clemens: It positively seems that method!
2:27
Ben Clemens: Doesn’t actually really feel like a recipe to success for me
2:27
Father Padre: Witt or Tatis on their present contracts, who would you moderately have?
2:27
Ben Clemens: I’d take Tatis however I guess you most individuals would take Witt
2:27
Eric: May you elaborate on why you’re the low man on Witt?
2:28
Ben Clemens: Plenty of it comes right down to probably not trusting his strategy on the plate
2:28
Ben Clemens: He’s an exceptional hitter and athlete however I believe his pitch recognition might be a 40 or so
2:29
Ben Clemens: and that simply places a TON of stress on his bat pace/bat management
2:29
Ben Clemens: it’s actually laborious to have a swing profile like his and hit for energy with out placing out rather a lot
2:30
Ben Clemens: perhaps he can do it, once more he’s a premium expertise, however to actually be a star with no full offensive overhaul he has to maintain placing up these wonderful numbers on contact and in addition add worth together with his protection and legs
2:30
Ben Clemens: legs are a given, I’m positively much less offered on protection
2:31
Ben Clemens: Statcast had him as among the best shortstops in baseball a 12 months after being one of many worst, DRS thinks he went from abysmal to dangerous, Prospectus agrees with DRS
2:32
Visitor: Have  you guys thought of spending much less time on the cutesy-poo headlines and extra time writing higher articles?
2:32
Ben Clemens: Thought of it, determined to not
2:33
Ben Clemens: My regular workflow is 10 hours a day on headlines after which I bang out the article in quarter-hour
2:33
Mark: What to anticipate of Eury Perez in 2024?
2:33
Ben Clemens: I anticipate him to be a prime pitcher whose innings are restricted
2:33
JJ Hardy’s Ghost: In case you had been the Orioles, Who would you attempt to lock as much as an extension first: Adley, Gunnar or Burnes?
2:33
Ben Clemens: you recognize, I all the time thought JJ Hardy’s ghost can be a Brewers fan
2:33
Ben Clemens: however Gunnar for me
2:33
Ben Clemens: by the narrowest of margins forward of Adley
2:34
Ben Clemens: I believe that in all probability what’s going to occur is that one or each of them say no and so they transfer on to Burnes
2:34
Ben Clemens: who may additionally say no
2:34
Ok DOT: All of what you mentioned concerning the Twins makes it much more infuriating that they don’t spend
2:34
DisgruntledClevelander: It’s form of laborious to select something however the Tigers for that given how little the Guardians have completed this offseason. Useless even by their requirements.
2:34
Ben Clemens: Actually wonderful how little the Guardians have completed
2:34
wheelhouse: what do you consider volpe going into 12 months 2? suppose folks aren’t actually partaking with how dangerous he was in 12 months 1 even by rookie requirements, however unsure how a lot enchancment to anticipate. seems like anybody projecting him for a leap is setting themselves as much as be underwhelmed
2:36
Ben Clemens: I don’t actually agree with this; I believe that the streakiness of his season made it really feel worse than it was. I additionally be ok with his protection, which makes it rather a lot simpler to tolerate some weak spot offensively
2:37
Ben Clemens: Projection programs have him as roughly a mean hitter this 12 months largely because of some enhancements in strikeout price, which is smart to me
2:37
Ben Clemens: and as a 3 win participant give or take
2:37
Ben Clemens: a variety of that may come right down to non-hitting components of his recreation for certain
2:37
Caleigh: Do the Yankees circle again to Snell or are they completed for now?
2:37
Ben Clemens: I believe they’re completed
2:38
rm: Do you belief the 12 months to 12 months stroll of defensive metrics for infielders greater than outfielders given the upper variety of probabilities?
2:38
Ben Clemens: I believe that outfield chances are high rather a lot simpler to measure
2:38
Ben Clemens: I additionally suppose that defensive metrics are simply going to be unavoidably noisy
2:38
Ben Clemens: even should you may measure what occurred on the sector with excellent precision, the variation in ability and sort of likelihood is significant
2:38
Willy Adames: Am I on the block? Who’s gettin’ me and for what?
2:38
Ben Clemens: I’m kinda unsure on this one
2:39
Ben Clemens: certain, buying and selling Burnes indicators that the Brewers wish to the longer term
2:39
Ben Clemens: however they’ve all the time operated with one foot within the now and one in tomorrow
2:39
Ben Clemens: and the return for Adames would possible not be a lot increased than the comp decide they’re presumably getting for a QO
2:39
Ben Clemens: laborious for me to think about that their long-term pursuits are served by buying and selling him for not a lot, they nonetheless do have to make the playoffs this 12 months
2:40
Constanza’s Licked Bat: It’s the 12 months 2050. The icecaps have melted, and dozens of former cities at the moment are underwater.

Which members of the 2024 Atlanta Braves are within the Corridor of Fame?

2:40
Ben Clemens: Ooh good query
2:41
Ben Clemens: I’ve bought: Acuna, Harris II, Strider, Riley
2:41
Ben Clemens: Clearly Acuna is an efficient guess, the remaining are kinda crapshoots imo
2:41
Tacoby Bellsbury: Which group’s lack of spending is most infuriating?
2:42
Ben Clemens: It WAS the Orioles
2:42
Ben Clemens: gonna give them a go for now in fact
2:42
Ben Clemens: For me it’s the Pirates
2:42
Ben Clemens: they’ve mentioned previously that they wish to maintain payroll on the degree of gate receipts
2:42
Ben Clemens: Nutting have to be raking within the money over there
2:42
Ok DOT: Strider for the HOF is extremely daring, proper? His odds should be beneath 20% proper now
2:42
Ghinga: Why do you suppose Riley particularly?  I can see the opposite ones, however probably not Riley.
2:43
Ben Clemens: Do you suppose a variety of the opposite gamers there are above 20%? I don’t actually
2:43
Ben Clemens: it’s powerful to make the corridor of fame
2:43
Ben Clemens: and I simply see Riley because the form of man who will find yourself with some gaudy profession numbers in a method that’s each old style and new faculty pleasant
2:45
Ben Clemens: tons of homers at a non-1b defensive place, absolutely loads of longevity on condition that he’s 2500 PA’s in at age 26, his peak might be actually strong
2:45
Ghinga: Do you suppose his protection will damage these probabilities?
2:45
Ben Clemens: no, as a result of I believe it has improved rather a lot
2:45
Visitor: Age 26 David Wright crushes Riley. Riley’s bought an extended, lengthy, lengthy technique to go.
2:45
Ben Clemens: i’m not saying he’s 50% to make the corridor of fame even
2:45
Ben Clemens: however David Wright had a phenomenally unfortunate run-out on his profession
2:45
Cautiously-optimistic M’s Fan: Everybody can agree that the Mariners budgetary restrictions are hogswallop and the group’s possession is embarrassing… with that being mentioned, am I fallacious for pondering Jerry Dipoto has put the Mariners in a reasonably strong place to reach 2024 together with his offseason maneuvering? The Polanco and Soto additions have me excited
2:46
Ben Clemens: Yeah I agree with this sentiment
2:46
Ben Clemens: I believe given the foolish restrictions, he did fairly effectively
2:46
Ben Clemens: I’m not offered on the Santos commerce particularly, however I’m prepared to be satisfied
2:48
Jason: Hello Ben, I hope you’ve had a pleasant low season to this point. I used to be questioning what your present expectations are for the Diamondbacks this season?
2:48
Ben Clemens: Compete for the division and make the playoffs
2:49
Marcos: Decide one participant from the 2015 Royals or 2016 Cubs for the Corridor of Fame.
2:50
Ben Clemens: Aroldis Chapman
2:50
Ben Clemens: man, that’s a boring decide
2:50
Ben Clemens: however I don’t see every other apparent ones and I may see Chapman ending up with a kind of ‘yeah okay superb he was simply such a key reliever for therefore lengthy’ form of issues
2:50
Ben Clemens: is dependent upon how reliever circumstances for HoF evolve over time clearly
2:50
Ben Clemens: however I don’t see every other nice choices
2:50
Ok DOT: I do know the numbers aren’t fairly there, however Anthony Rizzo has Veteran’s committee written throughout him
2:50
Ben Clemens: He was my second alternative
2:50
Cody: Do you suppose Theo coming again to Boston could have a major impression on the franchise shifting ahead? I’m enthusiastic about his return, however unsure how a lot management he could have.
2:50
Ben Clemens: Not relaly, to be sincere
2:51
Ben Clemens: Appears like he’s going to bop round between all of the groups within the fenway orbit and provide normal recommendation on finest practices
2:51
Ben Clemens: which is neat however in all probability not the knid of factor that makes you higher immediately
2:51
wheelhouse: on volpe: my skepticism of his offense is on not having any hitting ability to hold his hat on. his exit velo is okay not nice, his contact charges are okay not nice, his swing selections, pitch recognition, batted ball profile all okay not nice. pulls the ball, good, however 59% grounders when he pulls, GB/FB 2.59. it’s not a profile that has one obtrusive flaw that if he addresses it, all the pieces else comes collectively.
2:51
Ben Clemens: Yeah completely truthful
2:52
Ben Clemens: it does imply that he doesn’t have a single level of failure, however I believe his carrying device is simply usually swing selections and bat management given these selections
2:52
Ben Clemens: which is admittedly form of a nebulous profile
2:52
Ghinga: Plenty of deal with the o’s this 12 months, and rightfully so.  Who within the Al east do you suppose has one of the best likelihood of profitable the division aside from them?
2:52
Ben Clemens: I believe the Yankees
2:52
Ben Clemens: However it’s going to be a very aggressive division
2:54
Ben Clemens: Our odds are popping out this week and I anticipate the Yankees to be the favourite given what the projections are sayihng proper now
2:55
Ben Clemens: Simply by projected WAR, which isn’t the identical as playoff odds, 4 of the 5 groups within the ALE are within the prime 11 in baseball
2:55
Duece: I might guess Jon Lester earlier than Chapman, however I agree we have to watch the place the pitching voters goes.
2:55
Ben Clemens: I’d have had him third after Rizzo
2:55
Ben Clemens: simply not a excessive sufficient peak for me, however I may positively be fallacious
2:55
Ben Clemens: and we’re dealing in lengthy pictures it doesn’t matter what
2:55
CFH: Do you suppose it’s simpler to enhance a group with a stars-and-scrubs development? Looks as if Verdugo and Grisham (even earlier than you account for Soto) are big upgrades over the Yankees negative-WAR outfielders in addition to Choose from final 12 months whereas it’s a lot more durable for a group just like the Giants to make an improve like that as a result of they’re about common in all places and would want to herald stars
2:55
Ben Clemens: I completely do
2:56
Ben Clemens: the Giants and Cardinals are my go-to examples of groups which have bother enhancing with particular person strikes b/c they’ve already completed so effectively on the straightforward holes to patch
2:56
Ben Clemens: It’s like should you’re making an attempt to extend the worth of a house by renovating it
2:56
Ben Clemens: if all the pieces already seems good, it’s more durable to make a straightforward repair. If certainly one of your bogs is 30 years outdated, effectively there you go, simply getting that factor trying affordable will do it
2:56
Visitor: Riley goes into his age 27 season and he’s solely bought 15-18 WAR. Solely 3 good seasons- superb seasons, however not nice seasons. If he places up 5 WAR yearly for six extra years, by his age 32 season, he’s nonetheless under Wright’s profession numbers. So, he’s bought to be wholesome and constant for that lengthy after which be capable to proceed accumulating past that. It’s rather a lot to anticipate from a man who bought a late begin, will not be an excellent defender, and has meh plate self-discipline.
2:57
Ben Clemens: The query wasn’t which gamers on the Braves are prone to make the corridor of fame
2:57
Ben Clemens: that’s Acuna and nobody else imo
2:57
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose Riley is prone to make the corridor of fame
2:57
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose Matt Olson is mORE possible, although
2:57
Ben Clemens: and to be clear, I don’t suppose ‘David Wright was higher’ is an efficient argument
2:57
Ben Clemens: if he didn’t have his profession minimize quick by harm he’d in all probability be a corridor of famer
2:58
Tom: Is there something for Giants followers to sit up for? I’m dooming concerning the Dodgers signing world beaters and SF getting a slap hitting outfielder
2:59
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s actually enjoyable to observe Logan Webb
2:59
Ben Clemens: Luis Matos is enjoyable, the group virtually all the time has immaculate vibes
2:59
Ben Clemens: However yeah, bummer of an offseason
2:59
Phil: Which members of the 2024 Atlanta Braves are within the Corridor of Fame?  That was the query…it kinda was which members of the Braves are prone to make the corridor grinning
2:59
Ben Clemens: Ha effectively, truthful sufficient
2:59
Ben Clemens: Okay how about this
3:00
Ben Clemens: not a really fascinating reply, oh effectively
3:00
Yo-Yo: If the Cardinals win the NLC, it is going to be as a result of this younger participant surpassed expectations and made a big effect:
3:00
Ben Clemens: However runner up: nobody and so they simply win b/c their innings eaters are higher than anticipated
3:00
Reds Enjoyer: Do you hate the Reds rotation as a lot as projections do? Personally seems like there’s no method these guys can all be as dangerous as they’re collectively being projecte to be…
3:01
Ben Clemens: We’ve got them because the Seventh-best rotation in baseball
3:01
Visitor: do you suppose the bluejays are nonetheless trying so as to add this offseason?
3:01
Ben Clemens: I assumed they had been
3:01
Ben Clemens: however…. at this level, I don’t
3:01
Ben Clemens: I believe they SHOULD
3:01
Crimson Sux: Since nobody of their proper thoughts on Yawkey Manner can speak themselves into competing for a WC spot…shouldn’t the Sox give fulltime ABs to guys like Duran, Abreu, Valdez, & Rafaela in order that they know what they’ve for after they determine to spend $1 sooner or later?
3:01
Ben Clemens: Oh I positively would
3:02
Ben Clemens: perhaps not all 4, however I’d deal with giving the younger guys ABs
3:02
Zombie One-Legged Invoice Veeck: Now that we’ve seen it in motion for a 12 months, what’s your opinion on the LF wall in Camden? An excessive amount of? Good? (full disclosure: I believe it’s an terrible eyesore with no bearing on the group’s success)
3:02
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s an eyesore however that it in all probability made sense to just do to maintain the offensive setting in an inexpensive place
3:03
Cody: Is the Javy Baez contract the worst in baseball proper now?
3:03
Ben Clemens: Yeah I believe so
3:03
Ben Clemens: man that one went south shortly
3:03
Hunter: Am I loopy to suppose Skubal may win the AL Cy Younger this 12 months? He was actually good as soon as he got here again in July.
3:03
Ben Clemens: You might be definiteliy not
3:03
Ben Clemens: A fast have a look at some odds means that he’s the Seventh-best guess
3:04
Ben Clemens: so the market agrees with you for essentially the most half
3:04
Ok DOT: Strasburg contract?
3:04
Ben Clemens: that’s a contender, but it surely’s mitigated by the way it appears clear that the Nats are getting an insurance coverage payout
3:04
Ben Clemens: the entire retiring unretiring factor suggests a prince fielder situatin
3:04
Visitor: Do you suppose the Pirates may appear like a fringe wild card contender in the event that they exit and signal/commerce for a 2-3 kind beginning pitcher?
3:04
Ben Clemens: I want I did
3:05
Ben Clemens: I believe that this group is simply too dangerous for one mid-level pitcher to make things better
3:05
Ben Clemens: Hopefully brighter instances forward and all
3:05
Ben Clemens: However the rotation is DIRE
3:05
Ben Clemens: and it’s not like their offense is lights out
3:06
Himbo: How huge of a believer are you in Chris Sale? Braves appear to be huge believers
3:06
Ben Clemens: I might say I’m a medium believer, however I believe he’s a very good guess for them given the development of the group
3:06
Ben Clemens: it simply is smart to play for upside no matter availability given how loaded they’re
3:08
Sirras: Having my board recreation group over tonight. Any opinion between Monarch, Isle of Skye, and Bloody Inn?
3:09
Ben Clemens: I’ve by no means performed any of those, sadly
3:09
Ben Clemens: I’ve heard actually good issues about Bloody Inn although
3:09
Ben Clemens: so I suppose that?
3:09
Ben Clemens: I simply spent 6 hours enjoying Frosthaven yday so I’m wildly board gamed out in the meanwhile
3:09
Austin Riley’s HoF plaque: Similar query Himbo had about Sale, however for Kelenic
3:09
Ben Clemens: Now this one is a toughie
3:10
Ben Clemens: I’m not as huge of a believer in Kelenic as Atlanta, however I do suppose that the worth was affordable and that it’s good to strive issues like that should you’re given the chance
3:10
Ben Clemens: he clearly has a carrying device
3:10
Sirras: Bloody Inn is irritating in one of the simplest ways – completely designed that you simply all the time want you had another motion per flip. Suggest giving it a shot!
3:10
Ben Clemens: What an excellent pitch for a recreation
3:10
Crimson Sux: So am I proper to be indignant each time I see Rob Refsnyder, Pablo Reyes, or Bobby Dalbec contact a bat?
3:10
Ben Clemens: mmmmm…. perhaps not Dalbec?
3:10
Ben Clemens: I really feel just like the clay hasn’t fairly dried there
3:10
Ben Clemens: Refsnyder and Reyes, yeah
3:10
Thomas: Do you suppose perhaps Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell had been simply figments of our creativeness, and the explanation they haven’t signed is that they don’t truly exist?
3:10
Ben Clemens: An inexpensive principle
3:11
Cubs Fan: Are the cubs getting themselves into the giants/cardinals vary the place they’ve a bunch of fine, not elite gamers the place it is going to be laborious for them to actually add wins to the roster after this season?
3:12
Ben Clemens: They’re, however perhaps I’m too low on their farm system
3:13
Ben Clemens: I suppose PCA or Alcantara might be that man
3:13
Morbo: Good afternoon puny people.
3:13
Derek: what share of FG writers do you suppose will decide a group aside from the Dodgers to win the WS this 12 months? (and the way about aside from the Dodgers or Braves?)
3:13
Ben Clemens: I’m gonna reply the second, Dodgers or Braves
3:13
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s fairly possible that I’ll
3:14
Ben Clemens: I’m with you in pondering that these two groups will probably be a really robust consensus
3:14
Ben Clemens: and i feel {that a} increased share of writers will decide them than their true odds will probably be
3:14
Ben Clemens: however let’s say… 20%
3:14
Morbo: It’s been awhile since I’ve made a chat: what have I missed the final a number of months?
3:14
Ben Clemens: From me, not a lot! General, you’ve missed some superior chats after which additionally some bizarre discussions of meals from Dan
3:14
greenfrog: Do you suppose Ohtani will break down bodily in a years from an accumulation of accidents, making his 10-year contract an albatross for the Dodgers?
3:15
Ben Clemens: I positively don’t
3:15
Ben Clemens: It’s laborious for his contract to be an albatross given the advertising and marketing half of issues
3:15
Ben Clemens: and the truth that he may simply be a very good hitter
3:16
Dan: Your a GM of a 500 group making an attempt to win a world sequence within the subsequent two years. Your boss says I’ll double your payroll finances and and approve all trades however you must give my grandson 400 at bats a 12 months. Are you in?
3:16
Ben Clemens: Oh man, good query
3:16
Ben Clemens: I believe I’d in all probability be out until the proprietor’s grandson was already a significant leaguer
3:16
Ben Clemens: or like, Robert Hassell the First
3:17
Tyguy: Associated to above: would FG ever contemplate having writers make their picks extra probabilistically? In different phrases, which group (in every league, or division, and so on) is most underrated by the prevailing odds of creating playoffs or profitable World Sequence? That will be extra fascinating to me vs a regurgitation of largely favorites (everyone knows the Dodgers are stacked!).
3:17
Ben Clemens: Most likely not, however don’t fear, I simply do it anyway
3:17
Baseball Man: Have you ever ever observed a pattern that groups with elite bullpens overperform within the common season in comparison with projections/expectations? the widespread sentiment was all the time been pitching and protection, however I’m beginning to suppose that locking within the remaining 3 innings is definitely extra of an indicator. Suppose final years orioles — not unbelievable pitching, however that backend of the bullpen was lights out.
3:17
Ben Clemens: I did suppose this however I’ve by no means been capable of finding a lot proof, and Dan hasn’t both
3:17
Eric: Re: PCA. Are Cubs followers who say he can fill a Bellinger-sized complete on the roster simply coping or are they shut sufficient to proper that not getting Bellinger again isn’t that dangerous for them?
3:17
Ben Clemens: I’m probably not the man to ask about that, however prospect week is coming quickly
3:19
greenfrog: The Blue Jays haven’t gained a single postseason recreation throughout their present window of competition. Bichette and VGJ are controllable for 2 extra seasons. Is the entrance workplace utterly blowing this chance to win a WS?
3:19
Ben Clemens: Mmmmm…. I don’t actually know how you can disentangle dangerous consequence from dangerous course of
3:20
Ben Clemens: I did like buying and selling for Berrios on the time
3:20
Ben Clemens: and actually they’d do this deal once more regardless that he’s underwhelmed on the entire
3:20
Ben Clemens: actually the group has not met expectations although
3:20
Ben Clemens: Alright on that notice, I’ve to go out and make my lunch, however thanks everybody for a pleasant chat in the present day
3:20
Ben Clemens: Let’s do it once more someday quickly
3:20
Ben Clemens: Have a beautiful week

 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.


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