A Entire Staff Out of Shortstops? The Padres Are Attempting

With a brand new baseball season comes a recent set of field scores to choose aside each day, however the ink on the primary one wasn’t even dry, so to talk, when it lodged itself in my mind at an ungodly early hour on March 20 and caught there like a flashing neon signal: EIGHT SHORTSTOPS! On Opening Day in Seoul in opposition to the Dodgers, the Padres fielded a lineup that aside from its battery of Yu Darvish and Luis Campusano was completely made up of shortstops previous and current; against this the Dodgers had resorted to inserting six-time Gold Glove-winning proper fielder Mookie Betts at brief to accommodate their very own uneven roster. To this baseball-addled thoughts, it felt like a collision of 4 a long time value of studying about scouting philosophies and sabermetrics, from Greenback Signal on the Muscle and Future Worth by means of Invoice James’ defensive spectrum and the fundamental building of WAR, with its positional changes. It took a exceptional confluence of circumstances to reach at this association, which to be truthful was by no means meant to be everlasting, although supervisor Mike Shildt has used that very same lineup extra typically than another since then.

Shortstops are typically a few of the most gifted and athletic gamers on the diamond. As Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel put it in Future Worth, the necessities for the place embrace “an above-average arm, plus velocity/vary, plus footwork, and common arms/motion.” A really excessive proportion of right-handed gamers have been shortstops in some unspecified time in the future as amateurs; certainly, enjoying the place at that stage is “a powerful indication of a participant’s all-around athleticism,” as Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper wrote final month when noting the Padres’ rising stockpile. Most of these newbie shortstops migrate throughout the defensive spectrum to much less demanding positions as their our bodies develop and so they progress by means of the minors and into the majors, with the event of their offensive expertise serving to to find out the place they could discover houses. As James noticed way back, the harder the defensive place, the decrease the bar for offensive manufacturing.

Right here’s the lineup in query:

That’s a group of elements that don’t but seem like they make up a complete. The lineup reveals the contours of the boom-and-bust cycle weathered by normal supervisor A.J. Preller, who has dedicated practically $1 billion to Machado (11 years, $350 million after the six-time All-Star opted out of his authentic 10-year, $300 million deal), Tatis (14 years, $340 million), and Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million) alone. Whereas the Padres reached the NLCS in 2022 after knocking off each the 101-win Mets and 111-win Dodgers, Preller’s imaginative and prescient hasn’t translated into full-blown success; after profitable simply 82 video games with a membership report $255 million payroll ($280 million for tax functions) in 2023, he’s been compelled to retool — most notably by dealing away late-’22 acquisition Juan Soto — and could also be nearing the tip of his rope.

Lengthy story brief, Preller invested a complete lot of cash whereas packing the Padres’ roster not simply with stars, however with stars of a sure sort (most of them consistent with the development towards more and more massive however athletic males enjoying the place), then shifting them round as they started to crowd one another. With the staff now stretched skinny, he’s filling within the gaps with light-hitting utilitymen and an attention-grabbing experiment. It’s value a have a look at how the Padres bought thus far.

The Fringe Guys

Probably probably the most transient member of this lineup is Wade. A former Yankees prospect, he grazed the Baseball Prospectus High 101 Prospects listing at no. 101 in 2017, following a .259/.352/.349 season at Double-A Trenton after which a stint within the Arizona Fall League studying to play the outfield. Vp of participant growth Gary Denbo and others within the group envisioned Wade because the Yankees’ reply to superutilitymen Ben Zobrist and Brock Holt, however his full lack of energy and failure to make constant contact prevented him from realizing that lofty purpose. Seven years and 4 DFAs later, the 29-year-old lefty swinger is the proprietor of a profession .220/.297/.302 (68 wRC+) batting line with a 1.7% barrel price and 24.7% strikeout price in 726 plate appearances. Signed to a minor league deal in November after getting simply 55 PA with the 112-loss A’s final 12 months, Wade has began 5 of the Padres’ 9 video games at third base instead of Machado, who’s nonetheless recovering from October surgical procedure to restore his proper extensor tendon in his elbow. Of the 4 video games Wade hasn’t began, two apiece have been began by 24-year-old righty rookie Eguy Rosario (who has pinch-hit for Wade 3 times and who himself has performed 130 minor league video games at shortstop) and 23-year-old lefty-swinging third base prospect Graham Pauley, who completed final season with 20 video games at Double-A, however whose infield protection was described as “at the moment untenable.”

Additionally on the perimeter is Profar, who goes additional again with Preller than another Padre, having been signed out of Curaçao by the Rangers on July 2, 2009, when Preller was the staff’s director {of professional} and worldwide scouting. By 2013, the 20-year-old Profar was the sport’s high prospect, however with a trio of All-Stars — Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, and Adrián Beltré — blocking his path to common enjoying time within the Texas infield, he was restricted to utility obligation as a rookie. His trajectory shifted as soon as he misplaced practically two full years to proper shoulder accidents, first a torn teres main that price him all of 2014, then a torn labrum that required surgical procedure and restricted him to a rehab stint in late ’15. He’s tasted solely intermittent success since, ending with least a 100 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR simply 3 times within the final seven years whereas roughly enjoying himself out of the infield; in 2022–23, he logged one inning at second base and 151.1 at first.

After hitting 15 homers with a 111 wRC+ and a career-high 2.5 WAR in 2022, Profar opted out of the ultimate 12 months of his three-year, $21 million take care of the Padres, then went unsigned into mid-March ’23 earlier than catching on with the Rockies. His season was such a catastrophe that the staff launched him in late August, and whereas he loved a little bit of September success upon being picked up by San Diego, he completed with a 76 wRC+ and -2.0 WAR. But he’s again on a one-year, $1 million-plus-incentives deal, beginning in left subject due to the staff’s lack of outfield depth.

The Cornerstone

As for the opposite six (former) shortstops, they’ve principally been shoehorned into the lineup by no matter means vital in a course of that dates again to 2019, when the staff signed Machado to a 10-year, $300 million take care of the intention of returning him to 3rd base after he had spent many of the earlier season at shortstop for the one time in his main league profession.

When the Orioles drafted Machado out of a Miami highschool with the third choose in 2010, he had already performed shortstop for the legendary 2009 under-18 U.S. nationwide staff that gained a gold medal on the Pan American Junior Championships. Machado performed virtually solely at shortstop in his three minor league seasons (the primary of which was solely 5 video games lengthy). By the spring of 2012, the 19-year-old phenom was the no. 11 prospect within the sport in keeping with Baseball America, drawing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez but in addition issues that he would possibly bodily outgrow the place. In the meantime, the Orioles already had a shortstop they have been fairly happy with in 29-year-old J.J. Hardy, who was coming off a 30-homer, 4.5 WAR season and who had just lately signed a three-year, $22.5 million extension. Machado started that season at Double-A Bowie, however when the Orioles, who had gone 69-93 in 2011 — their 14th consecutive shedding season — discovered themselves in competition, they referred to as up Machado in early August and caught him at third base, the place he had simply two video games {of professional} expertise. He shortly proved to be a spectacular defender, a significant improve over incumbent Wilson Betemit, who was quickly misplaced to a wrist harm anyway. The Orioles gained 93 video games and claimed a Wild Card spot in 2012, and the Machado-Hardy left facet remained in place by means of two extra playoff appearances over the following 4 years earlier than the latter’s physique broke down.

Throughout Hardy’s injury-related absences in 2015–16, Machado crammed in at shortstop, enjoying a complete of 52 video games there. After Hardy retired following the 2017 season, Machado returned to his outdated place, first with the Orioles, who have been amid a tear-down part, after which with the Dodgers, who traded for him on July 18, 2018. Although he produced 7.0 WAR in his stroll 12 months, Machado’s metrics at shortstop weren’t nice (-10 DRS, -6.5 UZR, 1 RAA), and by the point he signed with San Diego in February 2019, the 20-year-old Tatis was on the cusp of the majors, able to make the soar from Double-A. Again at third, Machado has made two All-Star groups and had two top-three finishes within the MVP voting whereas rising as a staff chief — a lot in order that the Padres lavished a brand new extension on him after he opted out of his authentic deal on the finish of the 2022 season. As for when he’ll return to the sphere — thereby trimming the shortstop complete right down to an affordable (?) seven, with Machado changing Wade at third and a greater hitter than Wade beginning at DH — the timeline is tentative at greatest, “probably by the tip of April.”

The Prodigy

Whereas Machado didn’t have an incredible first 12 months with the Padres in 2019, Tatis was a revelation on the offensive facet, hitting .317/.379/.590 (151 wRC+) in 84 video games earlier than a stress response in his decrease again ended his season in mid-August. His defensive metrics have been one other story, within the pink throughout the board (-3 DRS, -5.8 UZR, -12 RAA); whereas Machado’s have been considerably higher throughout a 37-game stint at shortstop when Tatis missed practically six weeks as a result of a hamstring pressure, the Padres opted to revive their earlier configuration through the shortened 2020 season. Each gamers carried out nicely; Tatis’ defensive numbers even improved throughout the small pattern, and the staff went 37-23, making the playoffs for the primary time in 14 years, albeit through an expanded subject.

With the infield getting more and more crowded as a result of arrivals of Cronenworth (in a December 2019 commerce with the Rays together with Tommy Pham) and Kim (from the KBO within the winter of 2020–21), the Padres inked Tatis to an enormous extension within the spring of 2021, then experimented with him in middle and proper subject whereas he was within the midst of a monster 42-homer, 158 wRC+ season that once more included principally under common defensive metrics at shortstop (-7.5 UZR, -6 DRS, 2 RAA). The plan to go ahead with him as an outfielder in 2022 was interrupted by Tatis’ misadventures, first a fracture in his left wrist that required surgical procedure and will have occurred throughout one of many a number of bike accidents he was concerned in whereas within the Dominican Republic that offseason, after which an 80-game PED suspension that landed whereas he was on a rehab project. When he lastly returned final 12 months, it was with no consideration fielder, and whereas his offense wasn’t as much as his common degree, his protection was elite. He led all proper fielders together with his 29 DRS, 13.8 UZR, and 10 RAA, taking house not solely a Gold Glove however the NL Platinum Glove.

The Swiss Military Knife

Drafted as a second baseman out of the College of Michigan — the place he pitched and performed first, second, third, and left subject however not shortstop — in 2015, Cronenworth spent many of the subsequent 4 seasons enjoying brief within the Rays’ group, albeit with wholesome servings of second base and third base. He even pitched in seven video games at Durham in 2019, and might need continued to take action if not for MLB’s dumb rule adjustments, which included one which set a 20-inning bar for somebody to be thought-about a two-way participant; in any other case, he may solely enter when his staff was profitable or shedding by greater than six runs.

As a rookie in 2020 he hit a sturdy .285/.354/.477 (126 wRC+) whereas enjoying primarily at second base, however he began at shortstop within the three video games Tatis didn’t, and served as a late-inning alternative in eight others. Throughout Tatis’ preliminary outfield foray, it was Cronenworth who took over at shortstop, beginning 31 of 34 video games and performing proper round common in keeping with the metrics.

He held the second base job in 2022, and was a Gold Glove finalist whereas hitting for a 110 wRC+ with 4.2 WAR, however the arrival of Bogaerts the next winter pushed him to first base, a place the place the Padres had lengthy struggled for offensive manufacturing as a result of their misguided perception in Eric Hosmer, who netted 0.4 WAR in 4 and a half seasons earlier than being traded. Sadly, Cronenworth’s offense has declined because the transfer, placing the Padres at a deficit offensively; he slipped to a 92 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR final 12 months.

The (Kiwoom) Hero

The infield bought much more crowded in 2021 with the arrival of Kim, who had starred as a shortstop for the Nexen (later Kiwoom) Heroes within the KBO. When he first got here stateside through a four-year, $28 million deal, he scuffled on the plate, hitting .202/.270/.352 (71 wRC+) whereas backing up at second, brief, and third. He crammed in for Tatis throughout a COVID-related IL stint in Might, however was primarily consigned to pinch-hitting obligation throughout Tatis’ outfield experiment.

As soon as the Padres dedicated to creating Tatis an outfielder, it was Kim they selected to play shortstop for 2022. He rewarded their religion by doing standout work (10 DRS, 4.9 UZR, 4 RAA), turning into a Gold Glove finalist whereas bettering to a 106 wRC+. He accommodated the staff by shifting to second base with the arrival of Bogaerts in 2023, profitable a Gold Glove whereas hitting 17 homers with a 112 wRC+ and 4.4 WAR. In February, the Padres determined they might be higher with the smaller, rangier Kim at shortstop and Bogaerts at second, a transfer that not solely is sensible on paper however appears geared to conserving Kim round previous his present deal (he has an $8 million mutual possibility for 2025).

The Interloper

Signed out of Aruba simply shy of his seventeenth birthday in 2009, Bogaerts performed solely at shortstop till he reached Triple-A 4 years later. Following a fast initiation at Pawtucket, the Pink Sox squeezed the 20-year-old prospect into their lineup as a 3rd baseman alongside shortstop Stephen Drew, and gained the World Sequence with that mixture. When Drew opted out, Bogaerts started the 2014 season at shortstop; he shifted again to 3rd when Drew belatedly re-signed, however when the veteran didn’t hit a lick, the Pink Sox foisted him on the Yankees in a July 31 commerce and reinstalled the rookie at brief. Over the following eight seasons he emerged as considered one of baseball’s greatest shortstops, hitting for a 125 wRC+ with 34.0 WAR (second on the place) from 2015–22 and signing a six-year, $120 million extension in ’19. Even so, he accrued -50 DRS and -25 RAA in that span.

Bogaerts exercised an opt-out in his contract after 2022 and signed a large take care of the Padres with the understanding {that a} place change would possibly occur down the street. He was stable defensively in his first season in San Diego (-4 DRS, 2 RAA, 0 UZR) whereas hitting for a 120 wRC+, however throughout spring coaching, the Padres satisfied him to swap locations with Kim. “I signed right here as a shortstop,” Bogaerts stated in late February. “However to me, I simply reside and die baseball… I’m simply doing it in the very best pursuits of the staff, and in the long run, I really feel like I’m at peace with shifting off.”

The Newest Experiment

Given the flimsiness of their outfield and the logjam within the infield, the Padres determined late final 12 months to strive Merrill, their 2021 first-round choose, within the outfield; as Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin wrote once they positioned him thirtieth on this 12 months’s High 100 Prospects listing, his below-average arms recommend that he’ll completely transfer off shortstop ultimately. Merrill performed 5 video games in left subject at Double-A San Antonio, and the Padres ready him for the probability of constant down that path. They tried Merrill in each left and middle subject this spring, and the 20-year-old (whose birthday is April 19) impressed them sufficient to open the season on the latter spot. Thus far, he’s hit a good .240/.321/.440 whereas beginning seven of 9 video games there and brought over after pinch-hitting for the light-hitting José Azocar within the different two. If Kim leaves after this season, Merrill may very well be again within the shortstop combine, however for now, that is how the Padres are rolling.

Will all of it work? The early returns are blended, because the Padres are simply 4-5. Their offense has been sturdy, scoring 5.78 runs per sport (sixth within the NL), however their shaky pitching has allowed an excellent six runs per sport (tenth). It’s far too early to get a learn on defensive metrics, however for now we’ll notice that the staff’s .651 defensive effectivity is eleventh, 24 factors under the league common. Keep tuned.