Joey Ortiz Is Succeeding Unusually

This text isn’t actually about Joey Ortiz. Or, nicely, it’s, but it surely’s additionally about how numbers will idiot you. Let’s begin with a number of numbers, then. Ortiz is strolling 12.9% of the time to this point this 12 months, excess of common and excess of he ever did within the excessive minors. He’s chasing pitches outdoors of the strike zone solely 24% of the time, an enormous change in strategy. Final 12 months within the minor leagues, that quantity stood at 34.5%. Because of this, he’s swinging and lacking far much less usually. There’s the story of how Ortiz has improved.

Only one downside: That story doesn’t maintain as much as nearer examination. Let’s break the strike zone up into 4 components the best way Baseball Savant and the Statcast group do it. There’s the center of the plate (coronary heart), the sides of the plate and the world simply off of it (shadow), the world the place good breaking pitches usually find yourself (chase), and the land of non-competitive pitches (waste). You’d anticipate Ortiz to swing much less ceaselessly than common at chase and waste pitches. You’d be unsuitable:

That’s baffling. For comparability’s sake, teammate Rhys Hoskins has comparable chase and zone swing charges, and he’s swinging at 17% of chase pitches and 1% of waste pitches. He’s additionally swinging extra ceaselessly than Ortiz at pitches over the center of the plate.

The explanation this may occur is the shadow zone. These are the hardest pitches to guage, and in mixture batters have a tricky time telling ball from strike in that space. They’re swinging at 59.9% of shadow zone pitches that cross the zone, versus 43.6% of the time at pitches that simply barely miss the rulebook zone. In different phrases, hitters are swinging much less, however they’re nonetheless getting fooled very often. That makes good intuitive sense. When a hitter takes a pitch a fraction of an inch off the plate, somebody is more likely to say “I don’t understand how he managed to take that” or “what a take!” It’s extremely tough to put off of these close to misses.

Solely, it hasn’t been tough for Ortiz. He’s pretty unremarkable on the subject of swinging at shadow pitches within the zone, which I’ll name “shadow-in” pitches; his 53% shadow-in swing charge is lower than league common however not by a staggering quantity. How about shadow-out? He’s immediately Juan Soto, with a 25.2% swing charge. In truth, Soto swings 30.8% of the time at these pitches. Solely three gamers in all of baseball – Andrew McCutchen, Jonathan India, and LaMonte Wade Jr. – are fishing much less ceaselessly on these extraordinarily tough pitches.

That’s spectacular. But it surely goes from spectacular to complicated when you think about the remainder of what he’s doing. If a batter has the requisite abilities to separate the pitches that clip the zone from those that simply miss it, we’d anticipate them to mash pitches down the center of the plate and ignore unhealthy ones. However Ortiz isn’t doing that in any respect. He has one of many lowest coronary heart of the plate swing charges in all of baseball, and he swings at pitches within the chase zone greater than common.

Is that this some particular talent of Ortiz’s? I’m skeptical, not due to something particularly about his sport, however as a result of it doesn’t make intuitive sense. Right here’s one mind-set about it. Right here’s a curated record of gamers with comparable gaps between their coronary heart swing charge and chase swing charge: Adley Rutschman, Paul Goldschmidt, CJ Abrams, Logan O’Hoppe, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryson Stott, Sal Frelick. I don’t consider these guys as having significantly sterling batting eyes; slightly, I hardly suppose twice about them on the subject of plate self-discipline. Ortiz outstrips everybody round him on the subject of discerning pitches within the shadow zone, although; the gamers on this cohort drop their swing charges by 13 proportion factors within the transition from shadow-in to shadow-out, and he’s at 27.8 proportion factors.

On the opposite aspect of the coin, think about the hitters who choose proper from unsuitable on the margins of the zone in addition to Ortiz. This group contains hitters like Francisco Lindor, Austin Riley, Masataka Yoshida, Fernando Tatis Jr., Steven Kwan, and Ian Happ. These guys know what they’re doing on the plate. However they swing at extra meatballs and get fooled into swinging at fewer chase pitches than Ortiz does by an enormous margin; they’ve a 52 proportion level hole in these two swing charges, versus 37 proportion factors for Ortiz.

This can be a long-winded approach of claiming that when you’re in search of the abilities which are going to make Ortiz a superb main league hitter, you must look past his eye on the plate. Does he even have among the finest eyes in baseball? Nearly actually not. However he in all probability gained’t swing at so few pitches over the center of the plate going ahead both, as a result of he clearly has a minimum of a good sense of the zone; you don’t find yourself with numbers like his utterly by chance.

So is he among the finest gamers in baseball on the subject of telling balls from strikes, or merely common? In all probability someplace within the center, however I feel he’ll proceed to earn powerful walks at an above-average clip. See, a part of the explanation that his coronary heart swing charge is so unhealthy is that he lets pitchers put him in a gap to begin plate appearances. Ortiz takes first pitches extra ceaselessly than the league as an entire; he additionally takes 1-0 and 0-1 pitches extra ceaselessly than the league as an entire. These pitches are disproportionately proper down the center of the plate.

The factor is, Ortiz doesn’t actually need to try this. That strategy makes extra sense when you’re both a slap hitter who desires to work a stroll or are searching a pitch in a selected location. As greatest as I can inform, neither of those displays who Ortiz is as a hitter. He does most of his harm proper over the center of the plate, similar to you’d anticipate. He began hitting for extra energy in 2023, and that’s carried proper over into 2024.

Naturally, that energy isn’t really easy to know both. Ortiz swings the bat laborious and the typical exit velocity of the highest half of his batted balls is within the high third of the league. That’s fairly good, however nothing particular. He additionally mishits the ball rather a lot, which is how he finally ends up with under common exit velocity, candy spot charge, and squared up charge. In different phrases, he’s sacrificing some contact consistency to supply loud contact when he does join.

That’s paying off, as a result of he’s an exceptional contact hitter. Regardless of his aggressive hacks, he’s making contact on 92% of the in-zone pitches he swings at, an elite charge. Mix that along with his unconventional strike zone mastery, and you’ve got a really powerful out. Are you able to get Ortiz to swing at unhealthy pitches? Most positively. Is he susceptible to some mishits? For positive. However these are small headwinds contemplating all of the issues Ortiz is doing proper on the plate.

Oh yeah, he’s an amazing defender, too. He’s largely performed third this 12 months, however can deal with second and shortstop as nicely. If it weren’t for Willy Adames, he’d in all probability be the Brewers’ on a regular basis shortstop, and I’d anticipate Ortiz to take over that function if Adames leaves in free company after this season. Put merely, Ortiz seems like a future foundational participant in Milwaukee.

He doesn’t must sustain his present tempo on offense for that to be the case, which is an effective factor. I don’t suppose he’ll keep both his outrageous energy on contact outcomes or his sterling strikeout-to-walk ratio. If I needed to guess, I’d put him down for an offensive line round 10% higher than common the remainder of the best way, a bit of worse than the anticipated numbers he’s produced to this point in 2024 and far worse than his precise manufacturing.

That’s not a disappointment, although. When you went again in time and advised final 12 months’s Brewers followers that the group would commerce Corbin Burnes, they’d be disillusioned. When you advised them that the return could be a superb defensive infielder who hits for energy and will get on base, they’d be excited. When you advised them that infielder could be round by 2029, they’d be ecstatic. And when you advised them they’d get one other high prospect (left-hander DL Corridor) within the discount, they in all probability wouldn’t consider you. The Brewers and Orioles have each come out of the Burnes commerce forward, and Ortiz’s spectacular efficiency is a large cause why.