The Boston Celtics stormed via the Miami Warmth within the first spherical of the NBA Playoffs. They held Miami to lower than 90 factors in three straight video games following a Caleb Martin-led fiasco in Recreation 2. Nonetheless, that ended up being nothing greater than a blip on the radar.
However heading into the Celtics’ Spherical 2 collection towards the Cleveland Cavaliers, that blip is extra related than ever.
The Warmth stole a recreation from the Celtics due to a historic three-point taking pictures efficiency. They drained 23 threes—two in need of the all-time NBA playoff document. In the meantime, they made simply 33 triples within the different 4 video games mixed, together with 21 within the ultimate three contests.
Cleveland simply wrapped up a seven-game slugfest towards the Orlando Magic. And on this case, slugfest is the proper time period, as the 2 sides acquired an enormous chunk of their scoring finished contained in the arc.
In seven video games, the Cavaliers made simply 60 three-pointers, averaging out to underneath 9 per recreation.
Boston made 75 threes in 5 video games towards the Warmth.
Math runs as we speak’s NBA. Simply ask Joe Mazzulla. Coaches and entrance places of work have pages upon pages of in-depth statistics that assist them run the group in essentially the most environment friendly means doable. They know which gamers ought to drive left versus proper. They know which gamers bode effectively in post-up conditions. They know which defensive matchups they’re prepared to dwell with based mostly on the odds.
However on the finish of the day, the mathematics of three is larger than two looms giant over this impending collection.
The Cavaliers’ three-point struggles run deeper than their makes (regardless that they solely made 10 or extra threes in two of their seven video games).
The Cavaliers solely tried 30 or extra threes 4 occasions of their seven-game collection. And one of many contests, Recreation 3, stands out among the many relaxation.
Cleveland took simply 17 threes. In 2024.
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Picture by David Liam Kyle/NBAE by way of Getty Photos
There’s room for enchancment from deep for the Cavaliers. Max Strus shot simply 31.6% from distance towards Orlando. Caris LeVert shot 23.5%. Georges Niang shot 13.3%. All of these guys may enhance their numbers, nevertheless it’s nonetheless not sufficient to match the three-point firepower Boston employs.
The Magic handled related woes from behind the arc all through the collection. And ultimately, the Cavaliers had been in a position to grit out a victory after a formidable Recreation 7 comeback.
The Celtics will not be the Magic.
The Celtics tried 42.5 threes per recreation within the common season (first within the NBA). The Magic took 31.3 (twenty ninth within the NBA). The Celtics shot 38.8% from behind the arc within the common season (second within the NBA). The Magic shot 35.2% (twenty fourth within the NBA).
It took the Cavaliers seven video games to dispatch a Magic group that was statistically one of many worst three-point taking pictures groups within the common season. And now, they’re squaring up towards the perfect.
These two groups confronted off 3 times within the common season, and the one victory Cleveland secured got here off the again of a miraculous three-point barrage from Dean Wade within the fourth quarter. It was a miniature model of Celtics-Warmth Recreation 2. Three-point taking pictures gained them that recreation. (Additionally, Wade has been out whereas coping with a knee harm, in order that Celtics demon is resting in the interim.)
There are one million different minute particulars that may go into this collection. How will the Celtics assault Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in mismatches? How usually will they get Jarrett Allen guarding Jayson Tatum on the perimeter to use that cross-match? Can the Cavaliers choose on Al Horford if Boston brings him to the extent within the pick-and-roll? Will Strus, LeVert, or one other Cavaliers function participant step as much as fill their scoring gaps? All are legitimate questions.
However three-point taking pictures is what is going to decide this collection. If the Cavaliers magically summon the three-point voodoo that Miami present in Recreation 2, the variance can be taken out of the equation. Till then, the purpose stands.
If Boston’s offense generates the threes they’ve been in a position to get all season, there’s a very good likelihood they are going to merely out-shoot the Cavaliers, who can not discover, and will not have, a rhythm from behind the arc.