Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/30/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people, and welcome to a different version of my Tuesday chat!

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit late in setting this up in the present day as I used to be scrambling to file a bit on Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron that may really run tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: We’ll give this a couple of minutes for the queue to refill and for me to complete this structurally unsound turkey sandwich.

the one who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: My typical go-to after I make a sandwich at residence: Boar’s Head cracked pepper smoked turkey on Arnold Nation White bread with mayo, mustard (eye-watering stuff from Philippe The Unique, residence of the French dip), sliced cucumber, and Potbelly Giardiniera (ikyky).

Yeah Properly Hiura Towel: Jay, how lengthy til we get a actual playing scandal in MLB? i.e. one really involving gamers betting or offering insider information?

Jay Jaffe: i stay skeptical that there’s any participant silly sufficient to do that, however then should you requested me in 2015 whether or not this nation would get as silly because it has, I wouldn’t have thought so. And but right here we’re, one pandemic, two impeachments, one tried coup and an existential menace to democracy later.

Josh: The place are you on Andy Pages? Above-average common going ahead or frightened in regards to the swing and miss, nonetheless?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been pleasantly stunned to date on condition that he’s getting back from shoulder surgical procedure, which usually tends to sap a hitter’s energy. I feel he’ll all the time have swing and miss points however like prime Chris Taylor be capable of offset that together with his energy and basic offensive potential. He’s received a 132 wRC+ proper now, and whereas I don’t count on him to take care of that, I feel he has a shot at being the most efficient of the Dodgers’ outfielders in addition to Teoscar Hernández.

Talfred: Though Volpe has come again right down to earth after his sizzling begin, have we seen sufficient to say with confidence that he’s a considerably higher participant than he confirmed final yr?

Jay Jaffe: I feel he’s improved a good bit, however his underlying Statcast numbers recommend it’s fairly sublte; he’s really barreling the ball much less typically and his x-stats are fairly related. The place he’s actually improved is in controlling the strike zone; his swinging strike price has dropped from 12.5% to six.5% as he’s shaved about 5 factors off his chase price. I feel we’re due for a better take a look at him quickly.

BLEES: Edwin Diaz throwing a USDA Licensed Meatball final night time was simply what the physician ordered for this Cubs offense. If they’ll hold above .500 till Belli and Suzuki are again are they the staff to beat within the NLC?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a protracted season and no person goes to run away with the NL Central. The Cubs’ lineup has a ton of gamers who aren’t producing, and their run prevention is nothing particular. I do suppose they need to be happy with Shota Imanaga’s first month, and likewise Michael Busch.

Travis: Is it time to be involved about Acuna but? He seems to be rooooough and the numbers again it up

Jay Jaffe: I’d be a little bit involved given how dramatically his numbers have eroded — strikeout price greater than doubled,  not hitting the ball as exhausting (xSLG down about 280 factors!). unsure what’s happening however this simply proves that Mookie Betts ought to have been the NL MVP final yr .

Matt VW: Interested by your article on beneath substitute stage vets, Xander Bogaerts is off to a reasonably bumpy begin too. He’s not that outdated, however is at a second in his profession the place we would infer the beginning of a decline part for a center infielder. Is that this extra of an “it’s April” factor, or do the underlying date point out some trigger for greater than typical concern?

Jay Jaffe: His numbers are unhealthy however I’m not terribly involved but. His xBA and xSLG are similar to each 2022 and ’23, however he simply hasn’t gotten his cash’s price. I do surprise if the place change is having an impression on his offense.

Travis: I imply, baseball gamers aren’t any smarter than another athletes and also you simply had a scandal within the NBA, and a number of playing suspensions within the NFL

Jay Jaffe: You’re proper, although I do suppose that MLB rightfully making an instance of Pete Rose by banning him for all times looms giant. And hey, perhaps the NBA’s lifetime ban of Jontay Porter will resonate throughout sports activities and supply a cautionary story of what’s at stake.

Underperforming Vets: What do you consider Arozarena and Bogaerts? Each have been brutal to start out the yr and we’re over the 100 PAs mark.

Jay Jaffe: Arozarena was in yesterday’s piece linked above. He’s been making an attempt to make use of the entire discipline extra, nevertheless it’s costing him some productiveness.

Rick: You talked about Castellanos in your beneath substitute article and he does look horrible. Swinging at all the things off the plate. Appears like Baez chasing. Not that way back he was hitter. Do you suppose he ultimately turns it round or completely cooked?

Jay Jaffe: If you happen to take a look at Castellanos’ final 5 seasons, he’s netted 3.6 WAR, which implies that within the 4 years in addition to 2021, he’s at substitute stage due to his protection and barely beneath league-average offense. He’s simply not an excellent ballplayer as of late. He’s solely 32 so I wouldn’t depend him out totally, however I believe he’s received changes to make if he’s going to be productive once more.

MikeD: Aaron Choose is on tempo to hit into 48 DPs, which might shatter the MLB file, and has a BABiP 50 pts. beneath his profession common. Trigger for concern, that means the primary indicators of age regression, or only a sluggish begin?

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about Choose final week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-aaron-judges-season-opening-slum…), and since then he’s hit .333/.448/.708 with three homers, so sure, it’s fairly clear that I mounted him.

Realistically, he’s by no means going to provide like 2022 once more, and his swing requires a good bit of upkeep however I hardly suppose we’ve seen the final of him as an offensive power.

v2micca: It’s early, however final nights Braves Mariners recreation must be frontrunner for Pitching duel of the season.

Jay Jaffe: I needed to interrupt writing about Waldron to examine in on that recreation in case a minimum of one of many no-hit bids received extra critical. I solely actually noticed its denouement, alas, however the graphic the Root Sports activities broadcast confirmed simply earlier than the Mariners received their first hit was attention-grabbing:

Jay Jaffe:

Anon21: The balls are deader. (37 PA/HR this yr, 33 PA/HR final yr over the identical interval.) May this be disproportionately hurting groups just like the Braves whose strategy was optimized for the livelier ball? Simply making an attempt to know why Acuña, Riley, and Olson are all doing poorly and seemingly getting worse.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose that groups actually plan their development across the liveliness of the ball, which we’ve seen can change from yr to yr. Considerably on the observe of the ball, I shall be taking a look on the early-season residence run scenario later this week.

Sodo Mojo: The Mariner’s offense has been pretty woeful to date this yr.  Do you suppose Garver, Raley, and Polanco will rebound or are the Mariners going to need to do some vital buying on the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: The entire offense has largely been unhealthy; even Julio Rodríguez has an 88 wRC+ proper now. I strongly suspect that no matter whether or not these explicit hitters rebound, if the Mariners are contending for a playoff spot, Jerry Dipoto will do some buying.

M’s Fan: As soon as Woo returns, do the the M’s have the very best rotation in baseball?

Jay Jaffe: They challenge to have the second-highest WAR of any rotation for the remainder of the season, so I’d say that they’re within the operating for the title of “greatest”

Vance: With Vacation despatched down, what do you suppose the probabilities are that Baltimore calls up Mayo or Norby over the subsequent month or two to take Urias’s at-bats?

Jay Jaffe: Extra seemingly Mayo (who’s enjoying 3B) than Norby (who’s enjoying 2B) if we’re simply speaking about Urias’ enjoying time, however I wouldn’t be tremendously stunned if Holliday is again earlier than both known as up.

BLEES: Which NL staff outdoors of Atlanta and the Dodgers has the very best shot to safe a bye this yr?

Jay Jaffe: Our Playoff Odds give the Cubs and Phillies the very best probabilities (13.4% and 12.1%) however my intestine says the latter has a greater probability. They’re the stronger ballclub of the 2 and that i simply don’t see the NL Central producing one of many league’s high two groups.

danny: is Jo Adell lastly breaking out offensively? not an excessive amount of information but however xwoba wanting nice and ok price drop particularly encouraging

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, it’s not plenty of information (59 PA, 40 BBE) however he’s swinging quite a bit much less and making contact much more, and that’s an excellent signal.

Loopy Query: What would Sonny Grey need to do to get into the HoF? I see only a few SP from this period getting in until the requirements change. I don’t suppose he presently has any probability, however he appears to be getting older like a positive wine. If he can put up a 5 WAR seasons with STL, after which stick round as a median SP till 40, does that give him any shot?

Jay Jaffe: With Gerrit Cole out, no person’s piling up innings as of late, however Grey is particularly not piling up innings, having certified for the ERA title simply as soon as previously three years. He’s in his age-34 season and has three seasons of a minimum of 5.0 bWAR; I feel he’s going to want a bunch extra earlier than he even will get talked about in HOF phrases.

AL Central Casting: I’ve learn articles suggesting particular gamers surrender switch-hitting as a result of they’re significantly poor from one facet. It appears to me there can be a troublesome studying curve to doing so, since they’d not solely be giving up the platoon benefits based mostly on physics and geometry, but additionally the truth that they’d be seeing same-side pitching for the primary time in a protracted whereas (if ever). Wouldn’t or not it’s extra useful to the staff to only platoon them as a lot as doable? Associated query: with the rise in specialization in baseball, will there be a time when switch-hitting is almost extinct?

Jay Jaffe: The factor about platooning is that it doesn’t occur in a vacuum; you want the proper roster development to tug it off, and even then it carries a price as to what you are able to do with the remainder of your bench. My intestine tells me {that a} participant who’s fighting switch-hitting can most likely adapt with out an excessive amount of bother given the low bar for enchancment, however I don’t have information at hand to again that up. Can be attention-grabbing for anyone to check.

Tommy: Which divisional race are you most excited to observe by means of October? Apart from Dodgers most likely operating away with the NL West, the opposite 5 ought to have fairly tight races

Jay Jaffe: In all probability the AL East because it’s the one I get to see probably the most from my NYC vantage. However it could be actually wild if the AL Central turns right into a 3 or 4 staff race.

Elliott: How does Vladdy Jr. have a tough hit% of 54% and a .351 slugging%, unhealthy luck or one thing else?

Jay Jaffe: His groundball price is above 50% and he’s pulling the ball lower than ever. Undecided what’s going on there however I can think about Blue Jays followers are tearing their hair out.

Re: Nats: With all these younger shortstops (Henderson, De La Cruz, Volpe, Abrams) what would their extension numbers be? Are all of them in Bobby Witt territory?

Anon21: I don’t imply that the Braves deliberate their strategy across the ball per se–I imply they’ve adopted a reasonably all-or-nothing strategy to hitting that’s predicated on the anticipated worth of the “all” (making good contact). If that anticipated worth has meaningfully decreased, it might go away them excessive and dry.

Jay Jaffe: They’re making nice contact — first or second within the majors in EV, barrel and hard-hit charges. However they do hit a ton of grounders (fifth in MLB), and have a middle-of-the-pack strikeout price so I’m not likely seeing how that interprets to an all-or-nothing strategy.

Alex Anthopoulos:

In case you are ducking since you vehemently acknowledged that Betts shoud have been the MVP, then  that one thing will not be proper in it. Care to broaden?

Jay Jaffe: Simply having a little bit enjoyable winding humorless Braves followers up after getting an countless quantity of shit from them for suggesting that — gasp — Betts could be worthy of the award final yr.

Dilly Canine: Assume PCA finally ends up going again down, or if he hits he sticks?

Jay Jaffe: I feel he could possibly be up and down for a minimum of the primary half of the season nevertheless it does depend upon how rapidly Bellinger returns and the extent to which Crow-Armstrong hits. In the event that they’re in a race late within the season, it’s clear that they worth his velocity and protection sufficient to maintain him round even when it’s simply as a bench piece.

Johnny: Is NOLAN JONES cooked – or is his horrible begin as a result of his harm?

Jay Jaffe: is a 25-year-old man who had a 135 wRC+ final yr and simply went on the IL for a again harm cooked? Is that what you’re asking?

Joey Doughnuts: Has there ever been a place participant in MLB historical past with as steep of an increase and subsequent fall as Kris Bryant? I really feel like individuals don’t discuss this practically sufficient.

Jay Jaffe: MVP in his age-24 season, substitute level-ish from his age-30 onward? I’m struggling to consider a parallel fairly as dramatic, although I’ll observe that Jeff Burroughs was an MVP at 23 after which totaled simply 3.2 WAR from ages 28-34.

André René Roussimoff: Are the Daulton Varsho’s offensive enhancements for actual? Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Coloration me skeptical a minimum of for the second. Whereas he’s turn into extra selective on the plate, he’s not hitting the ball exhausting in any respect, and each his xBA and xSLG are down about 40 factors from final yr, after they kind of mirrored his precise manufacturing.

Jay Jaffe: Sizemore was a star however not an MVP and champion; Bryant had a lot additional to fall.

Tim: I actually just like the Mets metropolis join however others have ripped them. What say you?

Jay Jaffe: I preferred the jerseys OK however I feel they appear ridiculous with the white pants.

Re: Kris Bryant: Cody Bellinger?

Jay Jaffe: We’re not there but — or quite, he does appear to have pulled out of his nosedive — however like Bryant, he does have the MVP/champion combo heights to fall from.

Re: Sonny Grey: I agree in the mean time Grey doesn’t have the numbers, however extra of a hopeful. He’s ninth on the lively pitcher bWAR record wtih some certain hearth HOF above him however retiring quickly. Cole, Nola, and Wheeler are the one others from this technology to look to also have a probability with good getting older. I don’t suppose we’ll see many pitchers placing up 50 WAR careers and it appears somebody hitting that mark might doubtlessly turn into the HoF standards if you would like any pitchers in.

Jay Jaffe: Quick reply to a protracted matter: I feel we’re extra prone to expertise a drought in pitchers being elected than within the requirements being lowered dramatically.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, that’s sufficient out of me for in the present day. Simply bear in mind: everyone who’s struggling proper now’s both washed up, cooked, or simply completely by means of. Panic now, and once more tomorrow!

Jay Jaffe: I child, I child. Thanks for stopping by, and stay calm. We’ll do that once more quickly…