Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/2/24

JT: Is Ronel Blanco fur realz or ought to we be very, very apprehensive as Blue Jays followers that Mark Shapiro loves glove first non-hitters?

Jay Jaffe: Blanco had his changeup working final night time, and it baffled the Blue Jays. They’ve the potential for a reasonably respectable offense, however punting on third base by letting Matt Chapman go and changing him with Isiah Kiner-Falefa goes to price them, and I’m not wild about their second base state of affairs both.

slave to 25 PA: I do know Mike Trout’s not gonna keep a .900 slugging, however am I incorrect to be slightly hopeful he makes a bounce again. I’m apprehensive about his whiff fee.

Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, you’re proper that he’s obtained much more swing and miss these days. His strikeout fee jumped from about 21% from 2011-20 to twenty-eight% over the previous three seasons and I’m not clear why. Could be value a more in-depth look if it persists

Al: I used to be skeptical about Volpe presumably hitting the ball within the air much less by flattening his assault angle however SSS be damned its night time and day from 2023. Fairly spectacular

Jay Jaffe: I believe individuals — particularly Yankees followers — neglect how younger Volpe is. He’ll flip 23 later this month, is hardly a completed product, and has a ton of offensive upside. Dan Szymborski included him on his ZiPS breakouts checklist https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2024-booms-and-busts-hitters/. I anticipate him to enhance considerably year-over-year relative to final season

Jay Jaffe: And I do suppose that with the arrival of Juan Soto, the Yankees’ offense has a really completely different vibe about it.

Cromulent: Thanks for chatting Jay. Curious on your historically-oriented take. If we ever get to automated balls and strikes, what’s the legacy of the pitch framing period? “Stealing strikes” or one thing extra nuanced? How if in any respect does that change catcher analysis?

Jay Jaffe: I believe perhaps we’ll look again on it just like the excessive mounds of the Nineteen Sixties, a time when the principles and the type of play had been favorable for a sure sort of participant earlier than being considerably neutralized by rule modifications.

That mentioned, I don’t suppose we’re going to get a full ABS (computerized ball and strike) system anytime quickly. It sounds as if what we’ll finally get is a problem system, and whereas that would cut back the affect of framing it wouldn’t fully negate it.

Stephen: RE: Yankees off to a scorching begin: might it simply be that they’ve extra good gamers than final yr, changing guys like Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero with Juan Soto reasonably than some grand narrative about hitting coaches and a brand new mentality (grinding ABs). In any case, they had been seventh in pitches per plate look final yr however they simply had a whole lot of dangerous hitters who couldn’t do harm.

Jay Jaffe: They did give an inordinate variety of plate appearances to Quad-A hackers, with Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney getting much more PA than the 2 guys you named. Nonetheless, I do anticipate signficant enchancment from Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera (who was worse than the Quad-A guys), Stanton, and Rizzo, and regardless of my normal distaste for Alex Verdugo, he’s a giant step up from the aforementioned as nicely

v2micca: I do know it’s actually actually early, however as a Braves fan that additionally enjoys watching the Mets undergo, is it time to get enthusiastic about the potential of Kelenic tormenting the Mets for years to return?

Jay Jaffe: You’d hardly be the primary to dream on Kelenic turning into a great main leaguer, however the woods are stuffed with individuals totally damaged whereas ready for that to occur. Caveat emptor.

Sharps: In case you and your child had been followers of a mediocre-to-bad staff this yr (coughnationalscough), what nationwide tales would have you ever excited for baseball?

Jay Jaffe: Off the highest of my head, not essentially so as: the arrival of Yamamoto, the new-look Dodgers, Juan Soto again within the Jap time zone, the return of O’Neill Cruz (and indicators of life in Pittsburgh?), the Rangers with Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter,  the rookie Jacksons (Chourio, Merrill, and finally Holliday), a purposeful Mike Trout, the query of whether or not the Orioles can observe up final yr’s 100-win season…

Visitor: Are the Purple Sox going shock individuals this yr? Or nonetheless not sufficient high quality arms?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see them having sufficient beginning pitching. They’ve carried out very nicely the primary time by the rotation, however let’s see if it sticks

seth r: joey votto ought to be on an MLB roster

Jay Jaffe: I believe he can be, however let’s bear in mind he simply signed with the Blue Jays about 3 weeks in the past and desires some at-bats underneath sport circumstances to prepare. He had only one in an official exhibition sport, homered on the primary pitch he noticed, after which rolled his proper ankle within the dugout proper afterwards and didn’t play once more.

Jay Jaffe: Search for him in late April or early Might

Dancin’ Dan McGraw: Yankees provide Soto a ten yr/500 mil cope with an choose out after yr 5 and 6.  Does this get it carried out?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability however he would possibly need these opt-out years nearer to the entrance of the deal.

sliptoad: in honor of blanco, which do you favor in a no-hitter– aces dominating or somebody popping out of nowhere and having the night time of their life?

Jay Jaffe: Why not each? I do suppose it’s fairly nice once we get journeymen and relatively obscure guys having the night time of their life, although. Edwin Jackson, Philip Humber, Bud Smith, Mike Fiers (twice!) and so forth

Jimmers: Why are individuals pushing for Vizquel within the HOF due to his protection however not Andrue Jones (based mostly on protection)? Is it as a result of his defensive peak was shorter? I don’t get it.

Jay Jaffe: Leaving apart each gamers’ off-field points (each had been arrested for home violence, for one factor), the distinction appears to be that Vizquel had sufficient longevity to strategy 3,000 hits regardless of being one of many worst hitters  of the fashionable period; his 82 OPS+ is tied with two HOF shortstops, Rabbit Maranville and Luis Aparicio, for the bottom of any participant with at the least 2,500 hits. Jones alternatively lacked longevity and principally fell aside bodily and maybe mentally after signing a giant free agent cope with the Dodgers. By no means thoughts the truth that the defensive metrics are way more supportive of Jones, who was additionally an above-average hitter and collected about 17 extra WAR in ~3500 fewer PA

erghammer: With all of the analysis you’ve carried out in regards to the guys who’re within the Corridor, who perhaps ought to be within the Corridor, and many others., have you ever ever thought “my intestine tells me this man ought to be in however a case for it will probably’t be constructed round typical metrics,” and then you definitely went out and seemed for unconventional metrics and even began to suppose up a brand new metric for measuring the participant’s affect?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t try this in help of anybody participant as a result of that’s dangerous course of that undermines the credibility of the underlying work. However I’ve messed round with how I consider relievers in a number of other ways, and I’ve carried out so extra lately with starters, too. The objective isn’t to justify why, say, Dave Stieb ought to be within the Corridor, it’s to see if we will discover some separation and due to this fact equitable technique of recognizing the very best from amongst a large group that got here and went from ballots within the blink of an eye fixed, with Stieb one of many high candidates inside that group.

If I can do it in a approach that first convinces myself after which extends to different voters, whether or not it’s Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Santana or anyone(s) else, THAT is what I’m aiming for.

Wild Invoice: Perfect composition of Os infield? I say Mountcastle/Ohearn platoon at First, Holliday at 2nd, Gunnar at Brief and Westburg at third as soon as Holliday is known as up hopefully quickly.

Jay Jaffe: I believe that appears about proper however perhaps it’s Coby Mayo at first base in some unspecified time in the future within the not-too-distant future.

Brad Radke’s Burner: When do you suppose, if ever, Johan Santana will seem on a committee poll?

Jay Jaffe: He’s not even eligible till after what would have been his 10-year run on the BBWAA poll ends in 2027. The following obtainable poll underneath the present construction can be 2029, however the competitors for poll area goes to be fierce, and the truth that he obtained lower than 5% works towards him once you’re speaking about competitors that obtained percentages that had been an order of magnitude increased after which some.

Solely Fan(atic)s: Persuade me that the E. Ruiz demotion isn’t about as blatant tanking because it will get

Jay Jaffe: He was a 1.3-WAR participant in common obligation final yr, not the second coming of Rickey Henderson. This might be service time manipulation nevertheless it’s not like he doesn’t have areas the place he might enhance given his lack of plate self-discipline and incapability to hit the ball laborious up to now.

Sandwich: Bryce elder pitched 180 innings final yr was excellent for a overwhelming majority of them. Why is there nonetheless a lot doubt simply because he throws 88

Jay Jaffe: Throws 88 and doesn’t strike many hitters out. That mentioned, he’s proven he can ship bulk innings at a better-than-average fee, and the Braves will virtually actually want him to plug a gap of their rotation quickly sufficient.

Jay Jaffe: This is applicable extra to the Ruiz state of affairs than to the Elder one however generally having minor league choices can actually work towards a participant presently of yr. The A’s simply picked up Tyler Nevin on waivers, and he’s out of choices, the place Ruiz just isn’t. They’ve an opportunity to judge whether or not the brand new man might help them with out the chance of dropping a lot.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Inexperienced Eyes: I learn that final night time’s no-hitter was the earliest ever. What ahistorical poppycock is that this? Actually each different no-hitter ever got here earlier than it!

Jay Jaffe: womp womp

Jay Jaffe: earliest by calendar date in a season

bosoxforlife: Are you proud of the sport as it’s now with fewer base hits however extra energy and strikeouts?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve come round to desirous to see extra hits, increased batting averages, and fewer three-true-outcomes. This can be the yr you lastly get my treatise, “Let’s Give a Shit About Batting Common Once more.”

Tigers fan: Which present hitters 26 and underneath do you suppose are most certainly to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: Soto and Ronald Acuña Jr. with a giant hole forward of all people else, then a fwq from amongst Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodríguez, Michael Harris II, Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, perhaps Fernando Tatis Jr. if he can put in about 15 years of mannequin citizenship

Marshall: Does Mookie Betts have a greater probability at unanimous HOF induction than Mike Trout? I get the sense that Mookie is universally liked in a approach that Trout isn’t.

Jay Jaffe: I believe that’s simply recency bias getting the higher of you. Trout is a yr older and has 20 WAR and two MVP awards on Betts, who clearly makes up some floor by enjoying on higher groups.

Tigers fan: Sooner or later will followers and HOF voters want to regulate their standards shifting from counting statistics like 3000 hits, 500 HR, 300 wins to much less custom statistics like WAR, wRC, and OPS+?

Jay Jaffe: it’s already occurring. Take into account current HOF place gamers equivalent to Raines, Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer… none of them reached the 3000 or 500 milestones. on the pitching facet, three of the final 4 starters (Mussina, Pedro, Smoltz) had been wanting 300 wins.

Jay Jaffe: JAWS, child.

Mets: Its by no means too early in Flushing to get that sinking feeling.  Minor leaguers are dissing the key league staff publicly.  The management drawback seems to proceed to swirl.  Any early ideas?

Jay Jaffe: I believe the Mets have confused the general public and themselves as to what their intentions are for this yr. By buying and selling Scherzer and Verlander final yr after which staying out of the deep finish of the free agent pool this yr, they made it fairly obvious that within the quick time period they don’t anticipate to contend except they luck into it. Issues just like the signing of J.D. Martinez and the demotion of Vientos kind of cloud that.

Josh: Did you get an opportunity to observe Bobby Miller’s begin final week? Are you as enthusiastic about his season as me? He seemed completely dominant.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, I’m very excessive on Miller. Like Walker Buehler earlier than him, he’s obtained a vanity and depth with reference to his mound presence to go along with the good stuff, and I believe he’s able to being the staff’s #1 or #1A starter

CardsBadMakesMeSad: Jordan Walker has proven improved self-discipline within the early-going, however the batted ball numbers nonetheless go away quite a bit to be desired. Assume he turns the nook this summer time and begins demolishing baseballs?

Jay Jaffe: I do suppose Walker will take a step ahead. His early numbers are ugly however come on, we’re speaking about 4 video games value of knowledge.

Byoung: Early April video games when climate is at its worst ought to principally be between divisional foes in case of rainouts. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: In idea that works however the issue is that many of the groups are concentrated within the northern half of the US, the place temperatures are cooler. There merely aren’t sufficient warm-weather or lined websites to maintain baseball out of the chilly in April.

Luke: Hello Jay, how possible do you suppose the rally Reds are to maintain their capacity to win 1 run video games over the course of the season? After final season and the primary few video games this yr I’m beginning to really feel dangerously hopeful….

Jay Jaffe: Whereas a great bullpen actually helps, successful one-run video games isn’t a dependable predictor of successful extra one-run video games

Jay Jaffe: in different phrases, you need to be braced for some regression finally — however in the event you and the Reds are fortunate, perhaps it can maintain out lengthy sufficient that the staff is contending for one thing

Anil: Bailey Ober? Any ideas

Jay Jaffe: Man obtained bombed in a single begin? I believe you’re oberreacting

Jay Jaffe: TRY THE VEAL!

Austin: They haven’t been dominant however has the Tigers begin altered the outlook for his or her season? Their pitching has seemed fairly good to begin the yr.

Jay Jaffe: Because of the event of a few of their younger gamers, the Tigers do appear to be a staff poised for a breakthrough in a division that appears much more winnable now that the Twins have misplaced Royce Lewis for a month or extra.

Benny: With Greinke a free agent and Kershaw, Scherzer, and Verlander on the IL (to not point out deGrom and Cole), which energetic non-injured MLB pitcher is most certainly to make the Corridor of Fame sometime?

Jay Jaffe: I’d put Jansen and Kimbrel at increased odds than any starter in addition to Cole, however assuming you’re asking about starters, I’d go along with Zack Wheeler. He’s a number of WAR behind teammate Aaron Nola however is trending a lot better these days

John Darc: Does your child like Juan Soto?

Jay Jaffe: She hasn’t seen a lot of him but, only a few video games with him on the Padres. I anticipate that to alter.

HOF: How do you are feeling in regards to the gamers who had nice however shorter careers?  I all the time thought guys like Wright and Mattingly ought to be in.  The again of Oliva’s bb card is loaded with daring print – he was nice from day 1 for 9 years and it took without end to get in.

Jay Jaffe: The longer I’ve carried out Corridor evaluations, the extra I’ve come round towards increased peak guys with shorter careers. Nonetheless, I believe the peaks of the fellows you point out had been a bit too quick or in any other case restricted for me to offer them robust consideration. Wright’s 39.5 WAR seven-year peak (WAR7) is lower than 4 wins off the height normal for 3B, likewise for Oliva in RF. Mattingly is 6.2 quick at 1B (almost a win per yr). Dale Murphy is about 3.5 wanting the height normal in CF AND had the 2 MVP awards, i’ve come round a bit on him.

JD: When do the small pattern sizes of early season truly matter to you? Like, what sorts of issues do you search for that truly appear to supply one thing tangible to go on, reasonably than only a blip in a protracted season?

Jay Jaffe: Completely different stats stabilize at completely different pattern sizes, and over the following few months we’ll be writing about that quite a bit. 60 batted balls is one necessary threshold that I’m notably aware of .

jackal: Do you suppose Lourdes Gurriel can have a late profession leap ahead?

Jay Jaffe: He’s 30 and has almost 2,500 PA in his profession and eight.9 fWAR/10.9 bWAR. Set profession highs in each WARs final yr (2.1/3.0). That is his leap ahead, and whereas it’s good, it doesn’t scream “perennial All-Star”.

Matt VW: Earliest by date in calendar season, however Bob Feller threw a no-hitter on opening day. The factoid says extra about how the schedule has modified than about precocious pitching dominance.

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Feller’s was thrown on April 16, 1940. he was additionally throwing about 250 miles an hour at a time when few pitchers had been within the 90s.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, it’s been beautiful chatting with you as we speak — two weeks in a row, how about that? — and we’ll do it once more very quickly. Thanks a lot for stopping by!