We’re simply days away from the Tremendous Bowl conflict between the 49ers and the Chiefs, and it’s laborious to venture who’s going to win.
On one hand, can you actually wager in opposition to playoff Patrick Mahomes? However then again, the Niners regarded like one of the best staff within the NFL for many of the 12 months, whereas the Chiefs received video games despite their offensive efficiency moderately than due to it.
Who higher to present us perception on how the Niners can beat the Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl 58 than Kansas Metropolis’s AFC West rivals?
Michael Peterson, Bolts from the Blue
The 2023 common season confirmed us a special type of Chiefs staff than we’ve been used to in recent times. They had been nonetheless one of many higher groups within the NFL, however they someway regarded…mortal? Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid have constructed one of many league’s finest dynasties, however this previous season, the offense particularly regarded like it could lastly be dethroned within the AFC.
Oh how unsuitable all of us had been.
Regardless of some offensive woes, the Kansas Metropolis protection modified from a middling group to probably the greatest within the NFL over the 2023 offseason. For years, it’s been Mahomes and Co. carrying the opposite facet of the ball as they primarily solely wanted to carry opponents to twenty-eight factors or much less to verify their high-powered offense got here out on prime. Not many groups have that room for error. However this season, the Chiefs didn’t should be All-World on offense to win video games. They ended the 2023 common season because the No. 2 protection within the NFL in factors and yards allowed per sport.
Guys like defensive sort out Chris Jones (10.5 sacks), edge rusher George Karlaftis (10.5 sacks), and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (two interceptions) have been lights out on the sector for his or her unit. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has carried out a few of his best work this season and with out it, the Chiefs won’t have even made the playoffs this 12 months.
Offensively, the Chiefs needed to struggle by some drop points early within the season with their younger group of receivers, particularly with former first-round choose Kadarius Toney. Rookie wideout Rashee Rice has swiftly cemented himself as Mahomes’ favourite goal outdoors of his All-World tight finish, ending the 12 months with slightly below 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns.
By way of the staff’s three playoff video games, Kelce has someway managed to show again the clock for a resurgent efficiency by their first three playoff video games. Coming into the Tremendous Bowl, he’s hauled in 23 passes for 262 yards and three touchdowns. That yardage whole is the third-highest of his profession and he wants yet another landing to tie a playoff profession excessive.
One of many unsung heroes of the Chiefs offense in 2023 has acquired to be second-year working again Isiah Pacheco. Whereas all of the memes about his working type are getting many of the highlight, the previous seventh-round pick of Rutgers loved a profession 12 months with 935 dashing yards, 244 receiving yards, and 9 whole touchdowns. You can also make enjoyable of how he “appears to be like like a child attempting on new sneakers at Footlocker” all you need, however his explosive velocity will catch defenses off guard in the event that they don’t give him the respect he deserves.
Lastly, I’d be unsuitable to not point out kicker Harrison Butker. The man is as necessary to the Chiefs’ dynasty as anybody as a result of ice water flowing by his veins in each high-pressure second. Other than the Ravens’ Justin Tucker, I don’t suppose you’ll discover any kicker extra dependable when it issues most. Butler missed simply two of his 35 area objective makes an attempt this season, together with making all 5 makes an attempt over 50 yards.
Tim Lynch, Mile Excessive Report
Sure, we’ve gotten ourselves one more Kansas Metropolis Chiefs Tremendous Bowl look — their fourth in 5 seasons. What higher approach to root for his or her demise than to indicate how the San Francisco 49ers can comply with our personal Denver Broncos’ blueprint to take them down in Tremendous Bowl LVIII.
The Broncos performed the Chiefs twice this season and gave their offense suits in each contests. In Kansas Metropolis, the protection held them to only 19 factors in a loss after which in Denver, Patrick Mahomes and that offense put up 9 measly factors in a 24-9 Broncos’ victory. That’s only a 14 points-per-game common that any staff within the NFL would take in opposition to that offense.
However how did Denver do it? To reply that query we want to try how Denver was in a position to restrict the Chiefs’ scoring alternatives within the purple zone. You possibly can’t cease a staff just like the Chiefs from getting yards, so you must give attention to maintaining them out of the top zone.
Denver achieved these ends in a wide range of methods. From creating stress on Mahomes, getting turnovers, and thru their third and fourth down stops. Turnovers could be type of iffy to each depend on and to generate when wanted, so we’ll ignore that regardless of Denver popping out +2 general in two video games.
Third/fourth down effectivity
The one approach to get off the sector with no turnover is to pressure them to kick or flip it over on downs. That’s one thing that Denver did with superb frequency in opposition to Mahomes and the Chiefs. In two video games, Kansas Metropolis was a laughable 7/23 on third downs and 1/4 on fourth downs. For those who embrace these turnover on downs, Denver truly completed +4 in turnover differential. That’s large in opposition to a staff like Kansas Metropolis.
The issue right here is that the 49ers protection was fairly actually horrible at getting off the sector on third downs. They ranked twenty seventh within the NFL and it’s truly worse than that as a result of they had been lifeless final by a large margin down the stretch. Nevertheless, they had been marginally higher at maintaining groups out of the top zone — significantly better than Denver was truly. That’s actually the purpose in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. Restrict these touchdowns.
Strain, stress, stress
You possibly can restrict these touchdowns by getting after Patrick Mahomes and making his day a dwelling hell. This is likely to be the closest comparability to Denver and San Francisco I’ve acquired. Each groups had been beneath common at producing stress, however for the Broncos they confirmed up in opposition to Kansas Metropolis. San Francisco should do the identical.
Nothing units the Chiefs again greater than having a protracted drive finish with zero factors. In a decent sport, which the Broncos 24-9 win over the Chiefs was, it turns into the distinction between a win and a loss.
The 49ers can get after the quarterback. They had been seventh within the league in sacks, however sixteenth in stress charges. To repair this, they might should strive one thing new within the Tremendous Bowl. Vance Joseph and the Broncos’ protection blitzed on the fifth-highest fee within the NFL final season, however the 49ers had been thirtieth in blitz percentages. Possibly throw Andy Reid and the Chiefs a curveball with some further blitz packages for this sport solely. Simply go watch the Broncos movie and see how they created confusion and turnovers with their blitzing of Mahomes.
Last ideas
The 49ers and Chiefs each had stout defenses in factors given up, so I might anticipate a decrease rating sport if it wasn’t the Tremendous Bowl. Loopy issues occur in Tremendous Bowls, so I wouldn’t be silly sufficient to foretell a defensive battle on this sport. Regardless of them being two of solely three groups to surrender lower than 300 factors final season, I might anticipate loads of offense to occur between punts.
That mentioned, San Francisco goes to should deliver the warmth on Mahomes and pressure him to make some errant throws. If they simply sit again and attempt to play protection, he’ll choose them aside along with his improvisation expertise. As suspect because the Chiefs’ offense has been this season, you actually don’t wish to tempt destiny with No. 15 again there. Frustrate him and also you’ll discover a path to victory a lot simpler.
Invoice Williamson, Silver & Black Pleasure
Because the San Francisco 49ers scour for methods to get info on easy methods to beat the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl LVIII, they might wish to carefully research the tape of the Chiefs’ two video games in opposition to the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.
The issue, although, for the 49ers is they might be considerably confused after watching this season’s two matchups between the Raiders and Chiefs. The video games between the 2 groups had been fairly totally different.
In Week 12, the Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-17 on the street at Allegiant Stadium. By the best way, the Chiefs are 4-0 for the reason that Raiders beginning enjoying in Las Vegas in 2020. The Tremendous Bowl, after all, is being performed in Las Vegas for the primary time.
A month later, on Christmas Day, the Raiders returned the street favor by gorgeous the Chiefs in a standalone sport in entrance of a nationwide viewers, beating the flat Chiefs 20-14. It was the simply the second time in 11 years that the Raiders received at Arrowhead Stadium, and it delayed the Chiefs clinching their eighth straight AFC West title by every week.
Once more, these two video games had been totally different.
The Raiders truly jumped throughout Kansas Metropolis to start out the sport in Las Vegas. The Raiders jumped out to a 14-0 lead early within the second quarter. Then the Chiefs (who overcame a 17-0 deficit to beat the Raiders in Kansas Metropolis within the 2022 season) awakened and utterly took the sport over by outscoring the Raiders 31-3 in lower than three quarters.
The Chiefs utterly clamped down on the Raiders after recognizing them the early lead.
After the sport, Las Vegas cornerback Amik Robertson made headlines when he mentioned the Raiders had “extra canine” than the Chiefs. It was met with some skepticism for the reason that Chiefs pummeled the Raiders for many of the sport and that they had been the defending Tremendous Bowl champions.
But, Robertson’s perspective set the tone for the Raiders heading into their sport at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders, who entered the Week 16 sport with a 6-8 report and who completed the season at 8-9, had been already feeling nice coming off a 63-21 win over the Los Angles Chargers, setting a staff report for factors scored.
So, interim coach Antonio Pierce (who principally received the everlasting job that day) had the Raiders believing they might pull off the upset in Kansas Metropolis. Pierce’s play was to punch the Chiefs within the face and out-hustle them. That’s precisely what they did.
The Raiders appeared to be the extra centered, staff from the opening kickoff. It was gorgeous for the reason that Chiefs had been enjoying a house vacation sport with an opportunity to clinch the division and the Raiders had been holding onto slight playoff hopes.
The Raiders’ bodily play confirmed most upfront on each side of the ball. The defensive position manhandled the Chiefs offensive line and made Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable all sport lengthy.
Offensively, the Raiders wore down Kansas Metropolis late on the bottom and completed with 157 dashing yards. Getting Christian McCaffrey to grind down the Chiefs underrated protection and maintaining Mahomes off the sector would certainly be one thing the 49ers want to be taught from the Raiders’ win in Kansas Metropolis.
The Chiefs did assist the Raiders by giving up two defensive scores, dropping a number of passes, making premature penalties and lacking a makeable area objective. However the Raiders outplayed them and earned the win.
Kansas Metropolis’s coach lately mentioned the loss supplied a wake-up name for his staff that has received 5 straight video games since. Kansas Metropolis has regarded like a special staff since that sport.
So it’s tough to inform if the 49ers can be taught one thing from the Raiders’ video games in opposition to the Chiefs. Their finest wager is to attempt to replicate the Raiders pass-rush assault with their very own daunting defensive entrance.
Making Mahomes uncomfortable and getting him out of his consolation zone paved the best way for the Raiders win. In the event that they 49ers can do the identical, they’ll seemingly hoist the Lombardi Trophy.