The Nationals are coming into the third full season of their rebuild, and their lackluster offseason was emblematic of a crew extra targeted on the long-term image than even feigning an try at competing in 2024.
Main League Signings
2024 spend: $9.25MM
Complete spend: $9.25MM
Choice Selections
- Declined $3.3MM membership choice on CF Victor Robles (Robles was arbitration-eligible and stays with the crew after agreeing to a lower-cost one-year deal)
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Chosen SS Nasim Nunez from the Marlins within the Rule 5 Draft
Notable Minor League Signings
- Zach Davies, Eddie Rosario, Matt Barnes, Jesse Winker, Richard Bleier, Robert Gsellman, Juan Yepez, Derek Legislation, Luke Farrell, Stephen Nogosek, Travis Blankenhorn, Spenser Watkins, T.J. Zeuch
Notable Losses
The Nationals misplaced 91 video games final season and entered the offseason with a reasonably modest $110MM dedicated to the 2024 roster. With ample room so as to add beginning pitching and gamers at numerous positions across the diamond, the stage set for some offseason dealings. Basic supervisor Mike Rizzo appeared to counsel as a lot early eventually yr’s Winter Conferences.
“We’ve received a number of holes to fill,” the veteran normal supervisor mentioned. “We’ve received our work reduce out for us this yr, and I feel we’re going to take our aggressive strategy when it fits us and await the market when it fits us. I feel we’re going to be busy right here. … I feel we’re going to be aggressive once more this yr on the lookout for a bat that may play the nook infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left area, or a mixture of all three of these. After which we’ll resort again to getting extra pitching.”
Rizzo went on to point that he’d be comfy providing a number of years to free brokers “in the appropriate scenario.” It was an encouraging slate of feedback for Nats followers who’ve been monitoring a collection of ballyhooed prospects all through the present rebuild and appeared to the 2024 season as a yr that might see the crew start to show the nook.
Quick ahead a number of months, nevertheless, and lots of of these claims ring hole. The Nationals spent underneath $10MM in free company, didn’t make a single commerce and, regardless of having the No. 5 waiver precedence in baseball, didn’t place a declare on a single participant all offseason.
Washington did certainly add some nook bats, as Rizzo alluded to, however the influence of these acquisitions doesn’t look to be notably excessive. For the second straight season, the Nats purchased low on a non-tendered former high prospect to take over at third base. Not like Jeimer Candelario, nevertheless, Nick Senzel isn’t merely coming off one down season. The previous No. 2 total draft choose has by no means had a median offensive season in components of 5 MLB campaigns. He’s a profession .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than common, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly residence park during which Senzel has spent his complete profession to this point (Cincinnati’s Nice American Ball Park).
Well being has been a significant roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured checklist seven instances in his massive league profession (to say nothing of a number of notable accidents from his prospect days). If the Nats can lastly get Senzel wholesome, he’d hardly be the primary former high prospect to thrive in a change of surroundings. He’s nonetheless simply 28 years outdated, and the Nats will solely owe him a $2MM wage this season. If he performs effectively, he’ll be a viable commerce deadline chip but in addition might be a multi-year piece for Washington. As a result of he’s three weeks shy of 5 full years of MLB service, Senzel can be controllable by way of 2025 by way of arbitration.
The Nationals have already mentioned that Senzel would be the crew’s main third baseman, which displaces their very own in-house former high prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of choices and now ostensibly a bench function. It shouldn’t come as a shock if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — maybe even following a DFA. It’s comprehensible that the Nats really feel prepared to maneuver on from Kieboom after myriad accidents and components of 4 unproductive massive league seasons — however it’s a minimum of a bit shocking that they’re doing so in favor of a participant with a really related profession trajectory to this point.
Throughout the diamond, it seems Joey Gallo will get one other alternative to attempt to recapture the Rangers type that’s more and more turning into a distant reminiscence. He’s nonetheless simply 30 years outdated, however Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees again in 2021. The slugger belted 110 residence runs in simply 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, together with a pair of 40-tater seasons, however since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s nonetheless walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for loads of energy, however his already problematic strikeout price has ballooned to 40.5% in a big pattern of 970 plate appearances.
Gallo gained’t price the Nationals a lot, however at this level he’s two and a half seasons faraway from being a productive hitter. If he goes on an enormous first-half run, he might construct up some commerce worth, however even when he’s hitting fairly effectively, he’ll be considered as a unstable rental whose ’21-’23 observe report makes it powerful for a crew to give up a lot of word in a commerce.
The rest of the lineup is essentially set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an unpleasant .300 OBP final season however noticed his strikeout and stroll charges enhance within the season’s second half. He’s additionally one among baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 baggage in 51 tries, and quietly related on 18 residence runs final yr. There’s reliable breakout potential for him this season if he can proceed to construct on final yr’s second-half beneficial properties in his Okay/BB profile.
On the opposite aspect of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his function as Washington’s on a regular basis second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break yr of kinds. The 23-year-old was one of many sport’s high infield prospects earlier than making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and whereas he’s proven off the premium bat-to-ball abilities that helped him garner reward (12.4% strikeout price in ’23), he hasn’t completed a lot else. Final yr’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is correct according to his profession .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender to date and hasn’t hit for energy or supplied baserunning worth. He’s younger sufficient to take one other step ahead, but when it doesn’t occur in what’ll be his fifth season with massive league taking part in time, the Nats may need to look elsewhere for a long-term reply.
Then once more, one want solely look to heart area to point out the group’s endurance with homegrown skills. Victor Robles can be again for an eighth season regardless of not displaying a lot since a promising begin to his profession. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the many high 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium protection. Courting again to 2020, nevertheless, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in almost 1100 plate appearances. Again issues restricted him to 36 video games final yr, and his usually wonderful defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market provided some reasonably priced options (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, outdated good friend Michael A. Taylor), however the Nats opted to stay with Robles, who’ll attain six years of service in ’24 and turn into a free agent subsequent winter. If he’s wholesome and performing even fairly effectively this summer time, he’ll be a commerce candidate.
In proper area, the Nats will once more give Lane Thomas on a regular basis at-bats and hope he can construct on final yr’s .268/.315/.468 displaying. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 baggage and performed a nice proper area. He’s solely managed by way of 2025 and was the topic of loads of commerce chatter final summer time. That’ll seemingly be the case once more come July.
Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will once more function the first catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in simply 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term underneath an eight-year extension.
Joey Meneses is more likely to open the season because the Nats’ main designated hitter, however among the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in simply 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He noticed almost triple the at-bats in ’23 however nonetheless hit simply 13 homers with an total .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only participant, that gained’t reduce it transferring ahead.
Left area is the one actual spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league offers to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step as much as fill that spot. Rosario is the extra succesful defender and is coming off a greater 2023 displaying. Winker, at his peak, was the extra productive of the 2 — a minimum of towards right-handed pitching. Neither will price a lot in the event that they make the roster. It’s unlikely both will return a lot in a possible deadline swap, even when they’re performing effectively, however the pair of veterans offers the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wooden, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.
On the pitching aspect of the roster, the Nats will successfully roll out the identical workers that produced among the worst ends in the sport final yr. Zach Davies, one other minor league signee, is the one addition of word. The Nats have loads of payroll house however will eschew even modestly priced upgrades within the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, each of whom stay unsigned.
That can pave the way in which for a bunch of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Grey, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to guide the crew in begins once more, pending any contributions from Davies and high prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll finally return from 2023 Tommy John surgical procedure — seemingly on a restricted workload. Washington is missing in top-end pitching prospects past Cavalli, although names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker might issue into the rotation in some unspecified time in the future.
The hope can be that Grey, Gore and Cavalli can all take significant steps ahead, however there’s cause to precise skepticism regardless of the previous high prospect pedigree of every. Grey has by no means walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and final yr’s 20.5% strikeout price was a career-low. He lastly managed to considerably curb his highest-in-MLB residence run price (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), however he did so on the expense of strikeouts and extra free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) however missed bats at a powerful stage and did attain a brand new career-high innings complete (136 1/3). Cavalli was considered by some scouts as a future reliever earlier than he had Tommy John surgical procedure, and he’ll now be underneath a tightly managed workload.
Regardless of Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing so as to add pitching assist and being keen to make multi-year provides in the appropriate setting, he modified his tune dramatically only a couple months later: “I simply couldn’t discover that beginning pitcher that was going to influence us right now, for not solely the correct quantity of years however the appropriate wage right now,” Rizzo mentioned in mid-February.
It’s a puzzling assertion when every of Alex Wooden, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for underneath $10MM, within the case of Wooden, Junis and Perez). Every of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year offers with costs that will’ve saved the Nationals’ payroll within the $140MM vary, if not a bit decrease. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and had been at $135MM or extra in every season from 2014-22.
It’s the same story within the bullpen, the place myriad arms signed short-term offers that the Nationals might accommodate. The Nats’ solely pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a pleasant observe report however struggled in ’23 whereas battling a wildly unlucky .401 common on balls in play regardless of better-than-average laborious contact numbers. Floro is a wonderfully wise pickup, probably even a cut price, however the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s shocking he was the one one.
Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all managed solely by way of 2025 — Washington could have loads of relievers to hawk this summer time. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier might work their approach into that group after signing minor league offers. One other one-year pickup might’ve given them one other, although, and whereas the return on such investments is never of word, the Nats clearly had the payroll capability to a minimum of take a shot.
Maybe the overall dearth of exercise stems from uncertainty concerning the way forward for the crew. The Lerner household was reportedly exploring a sale of the membership for the previous couple seasons earlier than saying in late February that these efforts had been being halted. It’s a lot possible that present possession handcuffed Rizzo and his workers in pretty vital trend this winter, not eager to tackle long-term commitments whereas exploring a sale of the crew. Rizzo, the remainder of the entrance workplace, and possession would by no means publicly state as a lot, however it’s honest to marvel given the minimal payroll outlay and the variety of areas on the roster that stay ripe for an improve.
Whatever the reasoning, the outcomes are what they’re. The 2024 season appears like one other bleak yr for Nats followers, one stricken by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive manufacturing. However the ongoing rebuild might start to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a extra fascinating ’25 marketing campaign. Wooden and Crews will seemingly be within the majors by then. Corbin can be off the books. Cavalli might be each wholesome and largely freed from an innings cap. And the Nats solely have $43MM on that yr’s payroll, maybe setting the stage for a extra aggressive run by way of free company following the 2024 marketing campaign. That’s shaping as much as be a deep free agent class, headlined by outdated good friend Juan Soto along with Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — amongst many others. This offseason was as quiet as they arrive, however subsequent winter might be extra fascinating.