The Revamped Padres Have Surged into First Place within the NL West

Don’t look now, however for the primary time in three and a half months, the NL West has a brand new chief. Whereas the Dodgers have struggled to the purpose of face-planting, the Padres have surged, producing a 10-game swing within the NL West standings since July 3 thanks largely to a dominant bullpen and a few well timed upgrades forward of the July 31 commerce deadline. The Southern California rivals are set to sq. off six instances within the subsequent 10 days, beginning with a weekend sequence in Los Angeles — however the Padres shall be with out workers ace Michael King, who landed on the injured listing on Thursday because of left knee irritation.

After notching 93 victories final season — the second-highest complete in franchise historical past — and making the playoffs for the third yr out of 5, the Padres bolted out of the gate in 2025, successful 15 of their first 19 video games and spending a lot of April main the division. They fell out of the highest spot on April 26, however spent the subsequent six weeks or so inside placing distance earlier than a 13-15 June dragged them down. Each the Padres and Giants have been 9 video games out of first on the shut of play on July 3, however since then, San Diego has put up the NL’s second-best report behind solely Milwaukee (28-5), whereas Los Angeles and San Francisco are tied for the league’s third-worst report, half a sport higher than lowly Colorado and Washington (each 12-22):

The Padres took over first place on Wednesday afternoon in emphatic style, scoring seven second-inning runs off control-challenged Giants stater Kai-Wei Teng and cruising to an 11-1 victory. With that, they accomplished a three-game sweep, prolonged their successful streak to 5 video games, and claimed their 14th victory of their final 17 video games relationship again to July 26. Later that night time, the Dodgers coughed up a 5-2 lead, permitting the Angels to comb them in Anaheim and knock them a full sport out of first.

The Padres’ odds of successful the division stood at a minuscule 0.6% as of July 3, however as of Friday morning, they’re as much as a season-high (36%) whereas the Dodgers’ odds are at their lowest (nonetheless a wholesome 63.9%):

As famous in Thursday’s examination of the Dodgers, the NL West race has swung within the Padres’ route based mostly upon three elements. First, whereas the Dodgers’ offense has collapsed because of accidents and a few premature regression and/or underperformance, the Padres’ offense has improved considerably, bolstered by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s strikes on the deadline. Second, what was already one of many majors’ prime bullpens has turn out to be completely dominant in current weeks. That enchancment has helped cowl for a patchy rotation and had an outsized impact on the staff’s success in one-run video games; in the meantime, the Dodgers’ injury-wracked bullpen has fallen aside within the shut ones. Trying again at that desk above, you’ll be able to see the Padres have outperformed their Pythagenpat-projected successful proportion by 50 factors since July 4, whereas the Dodgers have underperformed theirs by 82 factors in the identical span. General, the Dodgers (now 68-53) nonetheless have a slight edge in Pythagenpat (.565 to .549), however the Padres (69-53) have a slight edge in BaseRuns (.556 to .546). In different phrases, proper now these two groups look fairly equal.

Right here’s a breakdown of their offenses and run prevention earlier than and after that July 3 level of inflection:

By the primary three-plus months of the season, the Padres’ offense was an unremarkable one other than stars Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., with Jackson Merrill equally efficient when out there; the standout soph missed 4 weeks in April and Might because of a proper hamstring pressure. Stable supporting work by Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth was offset by mediocre performances from Xander Bogaerts and Luis Arraez, and some sizable sinkholes. Quickly afterwards, the Padres landed on my annual Alternative-Degree Killers lists at three positions: catcher (primarily Elias Díaz and the since-released Martín Maldonado), left area (Sheets’ work had not but offset numerous bygone gamers), and designated hitter (a rotating forged led by Arraez).

As anticipated, Preller took an aggressive method forward of the commerce deadline. Whereas he dealt away 12 prospects whom Eric Longenhagen rated as 35 FVs or higher — together with six 2024 draftees in one commerce with the Orioles — he addressed these Killer holes in addition to each ends of the pitching workers. The commerce with the Orioles introduced in Ramón Laureano, who has considerably upgraded the left area scenario, and Ryan O’Hearn, who has but to warmth up whereas splitting time at DH and first base. Each are pending free brokers (Laureano has a $6.5 million membership choice), however catcher Freddy Fermin, acquired from the Royals in trade for starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek, has not solely considerably upgraded a dismal catching scenario however has 4 years of membership management remaining. Likewise, reliever Mason Miller and starter JP Sears, each acquired from the A’s in trade for a four-prospect bundle headlined by Leo De Vries — one of the best prospect traded on the deadline, in Longenhagen’s estimation — include 4 and three years of management, respectively. Nestor Cortes, added from the Brewers with infield prospect Jorge Quintana in trade for outfielder Brandon Lockridge, is a pending free agent.

Extra on the influence of these trades beneath, however first, right here’s how the Padres hitters have fared since July 3, as in comparison with earlier than:

Apart from Merrill, all the Padres’ greatest bats have been extra productive over the previous six weeks than prior, with Machado — whose 3.7 WAR has already surpassed his 2023 and ’24 marks — and Tatis main the best way. Sheets has tailed off and misplaced taking part in time to the red-hot Laureano — he has simply eight plate appearances because the deadline — whereas a number of different unproductive part-timers have been swept out of the best way, serving to the staff to an 18-point enchancment in wRC+.

The acquisition of Miller, who has begun his San Diego profession by placing out 12 of the primary 20 hitters he’s confronted, fortified what’s already the strongest a part of the staff. The Padres bullpen, which has thrown 74.1 fewer innings than that of the Dodgers, now leads the majors in each ERA (2.97) and FIP (3.42), whereas rating fourth in strikeout charge (24.8%) and strikeout-to-walk differential (15.6%). Nearly any time supervisor Mike Shildt picks up the telephone, he’s calling for a pitcher with a scorching hand, as six of the seven relievers on the lively roster moreover Miller have ERAs of two.12 or decrease throughout a minimum of 12 innings since July 4, specifically nearer Robert Suarez, setup man Jason Adam, and middle-relief lefties Wandy Peralta and Adrian Morejon, and righties Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Suarez, who has been engaged on ironing out some pitch-tipping points, has a 1.15 ERA, 2.47 FIP and 28% strikeout charge in 15.2 innings since July 4.

The place the Padres look weak is in a rotation that’s principally been league common each earlier than and after July 3 whereas lacking key contributors. King spent 11 weeks on the injured listing because of a pinched thoracic nerve, then labored for two-plus innings and 57 pitches in his return in opposition to the Crimson Sox final Saturday. Subsequently, his knee began barking, and he was positioned on the IL retroactive to August 11; there’s no phrase but as to his prognosis.

When he’s been out there, King has been the Padres’ finest starter, with a 2.81 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 27.5% strikeout charge, so it’s a major step all the way down to fill-in Randy Vásquez, who was known as up from Triple-A El Paso. In 22 begins for the Padres — tied with Dylan Stop for second on the staff behind Nick Pivetta’s 24 — Vásquez has posted a decent 3.93 ERA (97 ERA-) however a 5.31 FIP (130 FIP-) whereas placing out simply 11.8% of hitters, the second-lowest mark of any starter with a minimum of 100 innings.

As for the remaining, Stop hasn’t pitched as badly as his 4.52 ERA suggests. He’s missed bats (30.7% strikeout charge, fourth within the majors) and eaten innings (129.1, second on the staff) whereas producing a 3.44 FIP and three.38 xERA, however he’s been hit tougher than normal and has allowed 4 or extra runs in three of his final seven turns, so it’s a stretch to say he’s trending in the best route. Yu Darvish didn’t make his season debut till July 7, and to date he’s put up a 5.61 ERA (distorted by an eight-run drubbing by the Cardinals on July 24) and 4.09 FIP throughout seven begins. He’s posted his first two high quality begins throughout his final three turns, so he does appear to be on the rise. Amid all that, Pivetta has risen to the event, with a 2.87 ERA and three.26 FIP, and workers bests of 141.1 innings and three.3 WAR. Past the larger query of King’s availability, it stays to be seen whether or not Sears and Cortes, neither of whom had pitched properly earlier than being dealt (the latter was restricted to 2 begins in Milwaukee because of a flexor pressure), can enhance upon Bergert and Kolek’s stable work in the back of the rotation.

One factor value noting relating to each the Padres and the Dodgers is that they’ve every struggled in opposition to different good groups. The Padres are simply 28-31 in opposition to groups with a .500 report or higher, together with simply 2-5 in opposition to the Dodgers, whereas the Dodgers are 28-32 in opposition to such groups. Observe that the definition of these “.500 or higher” groups is a fluid one. As a result of the Giants have slipped beneath .500 (59-62), for instance, neither the Padres’ 7-2 report in opposition to them nor the Dodgers’ 4-2 report in opposition to them is included in that context.

With the 2 three-game sequence on faucet within the coming days — the ultimate conferences between these rivals through the common season — we’ll see the extent to which the facility has actually shifted within the NL West. The Padres haven’t formally named their starters for the sequence, however they’ll possible both begin Vásquez or an opener in opposition to Clayton Kershaw on Friday, with Stop in opposition to outdated pal Blake Snell on Saturday, and Darvish in opposition to Tyler Glasnow on Sunday. Dangle onto your butts, as a result of this needs to be a enjoyable stretch of baseball.