The Mets May Swipe Some Base-Stealing Data

Again in late June, I wrote about one thing bizarre occurring in Flushing. Despite being gradual, and regardless of not being nice on the different components of baserunning, the Mets had been threatening to develop into the most effective base-stealing group of all time.

Properly, precisely seven weeks later, the Mets are nonetheless gradual. In keeping with Statcast, they’ve acquired a mean dash pace of 27 toes per second, which places them in a five-way tie for the slowest group in baseball. And they’re additionally nonetheless not good at taking the additional base: Statcast ranks them twentieth, whereas Baseball Prospectus has them at fifteenth. However if you happen to’ve been watching the Mets for the final couple months, you realize very effectively that they will nonetheless steal bases.

This week, I took one other take a look at the numbers as a result of a reader named Kevin submitted a mailbag query about Juan Soto’s newfound proclivity for stealing bases. We’ll get to Soto a bit later, however let’s begin with the group as a complete. I wrote that article on June 26. On the time, the Mets had 62 stolen bases, which ranked Eleventh within the majors, they usually’d been caught simply 10 instances. That was plenty of baseball in the past, so now looks as if a great time to present you an replace. The Mets have 93 stolen bases, the Eleventh-most swipes within the recreation, they usually’ve been caught simply 10 instances. They haven’t been caught since June 17! They’re 34 for his or her final 34!

I used to be centered on the all-time file for fulfillment price after I wrote that first piece. I added caveats for the unfinished stat totals earlier in baseball historical past and about the way in which the disengagement rule has made stealing simpler, however nonetheless, the Mets had been difficult for the file. They had been at 86.1%, which put them in eighth place, simply forward of the Cubs. Anyway, that was 31 consecutive steals in the past. Let’s examine again in on that leaderboard.

The Cubs have fallen off the tempo. They’ve picked up 32 extra steals, however they’ve additionally been thrown out seven instances. The Mets now stand alone, and if we low cost the 2020 A’s, who tried simply 29 steals over a 60-game season, then these guys have a reasonably important lead on the 162-game season chief, the 2023 Mets. I’m positive they’d like to take these punks down as soon as and for all.

What do the 2025 Mets must do with the intention to obtain that file? They might simply cease stealing altogether, however that appears unlikely. In spite of everything, they’re in a playoff race, and if there’s a base for them to swipe, they’re going to attempt to take it. Within the desk beneath, every row reveals the doable variety of instances the Mets may get caught stealing, together with the variety of profitable steals they would want with the intention to preserve their edge in success price. They’re at the moment on tempo for 126 steals and 14 failed makes an attempt.

The Mets may regress a bit and nonetheless keep forward of the 2023 model of themselves, however they’d just about must preserve this present tempo with the intention to fend off the 2020 Athletics.

The excellent news is that the Mets produce other information to consider. In keeping with Stathead, their present 47-game streak with out getting caught stealing is the fifth longest in historical past. The 2021 Giants maintain the present file of 65 video games, although the Mets have extra steals now than the Giants did throughout their total streak (26). As a way to tie them, the Mets might want to keep away from getting thrown out till September 2. Going one other 18 video games is definitely doable, however that’s a very long time. The all-time file for consecutive stolen bases with out getting caught is far nearer.

It is a little bit more durable to analysis, however as greatest as I can inform, the Mets are tied with the 2024 Cubs for the ninth-longest streak ever (or no less than since 1969, when Stathead has full, correct play-by-play knowledge). With yet another steal, they’ll equal the mark set by their arch-nemeses, the 2023 Mets. The present file belongs to the 2013 Crimson Sox, who ended the season with 39 straight profitable steals. If you wish to rely the postseason, then you possibly can credit score Boston with 44. When you’re inclined to wrap round to the 2014 season however exclude the 2013 playoffs, then you possibly can credit score the Sox with 40. Regardless, 39 appears very a lot inside attain for this Mets group, whose gamers by no means even appear to attract a throw after they steal.

It’s time to get again to Soto and revisit simply how the Mets are doing this. He’s already acquired 18 stolen bases, half once more as many as his earlier profession excessive of 12. When you watch SNY, you may need seen that these days, Ron Darling has taken to saying, “I knew it,” when Soto takes off for second.

Darling is aware of Soto is stealing as a result of he’s taking massive strolling leads that make it straightforward for even somebody as gradual as he’s to swipe a bag. As soon as he will get out that far with out drawing any curiosity from the pitcher, it’s educational. It’s been 5 steals and greater than two weeks since a catcher even bothered making an attempt to throw Soto out.

In each 2023 and 2024, Statcast had Soto was price eight bases worse than a mean runner, simply on basestealing. This 12 months, he’s 4 bases higher than common. He nonetheless grades out badly by way of taking the additional base. He’s slower than ever. He’s simply magically nice at stealing unexpectedly. In different phrases, he sounds lots like the remainder of the group. This isn’t only a Soto factor. It is a Mets factor.

Cedric Mullins offers an incredible instance. He’s an achieved basestealer who has swiped no less than 30 luggage in three totally different seasons. He was 14-for-18 with the Orioles earlier than being traded to the Mets on the deadline, however not a lot of these 14 steals appeared like this:

“I don’t know what Mullins was doing as an Oriole,” stated Gary Cohen after the play, “however the two steals he’s gotten for the Mets, he’s gotten these large jumps, the way in which plainly each Met basestealer does.” In these 18 makes an attempt as an Oriole, Mullins’ common place when the pitcher launched the ball was 24.3 toes away from the bottom. With the Mets, his common place is 27.9 toes away from the bottom. He has but to attract a throw. Once they’re making an attempt a steal, Mets baserunners are a mean of 13.4 toes from the bottom on launch. Statcast has numbers going again to 2016, and that’s the best mark any group has put up in 10 years. Once they’re not stealing, they common 11.2 toes, which ranks 279th out of 300. This large distinction signifies that the Mets know after they’re going to go. I gained’t make you sit via it once more, however please know that, simply as I did again in June, I may simply pull collectively one other massive, lengthy supercut of current Mets stolen bases the place the catcher doesn’t trouble throwing and the announcer is saying, “What an enormous lead,” proper earlier than the pitch.

The group is actually doing its homework relating to pitcher tendencies. There’s no manner for us to know, however I think about it is a group effort, with analysts crunching the numbers on when pitchers do and don’t throw over, and coaches and video room personnel crushing tape to select up on tells and tendencies. The general public face of all this preparation is first base coach and operating recreation coordinator Antoan Richardson. You may need seen that the digicam discovered him after Mullins’ most up-to-date steal within the clip above.

Then once more, possibly I’m fallacious. Possibly it’s not a gaggle effort. Requested just a few weeks in the past whether or not stealing extra bases was a degree of emphasis this season, supervisor Carlos Mendoza stated, “Not likely.” He continued, “I believe it’s simply a part of the personnel, the conditions. Bought to present credit score to Antoan Richardson along with his preparation, after which credit score to the gamers. They’re shopping for in and executing the sport plan. We’re not making an attempt any more durable, the scenario presents itself and we’re going to take benefit.”

Whether or not or not this all comes right down to Richardson, he positively deserves plenty of credit score. Right here’s certainly one of Soto’s current steals, off Logan Allen of the Guardians. Allen is left-handed, and he’s glorious at holding runners on. Statcast ranks him sixteenth out of all pitchers – that’s the 96th percentile – with 5 stolen bases prevented. (Nonetheless, he solely ranks within the eightieth percentile amongst Logans, as he trails Logan Webb however leads Logan Evans, Logan Henderson, and Logan Gilbert.) Right here’s the steal:

Soto doesn’t have a humongous lead. He’s happening the primary transfer right here. A number of fast reminders: Allen is tough to steal off of, Soto is gradual as grime, that is the primary inning, the Mets have already got a lead, and stealing second solely will increase run expectancy by 0.1 runs and win chance by 1%. This isn’t actually a scenario the place you go except you’re optimistic you may make it. Why is Soto optimistic he could make it? I believe it’s as a result of he’s acquired assist. Let’s zoom in on Richardson. Please ignore the truth that we’re additionally zoomed in on Allen’s now-gigantic butt within the foreground.

Richardson is repeating one thing proper up till he sees that Allen is about to make his first transfer. After watching one million instances and making an attempt to learn his lips, my greatest guess is that he’s saying, “Keep, keep, keep.” That’s, as quickly as he stops saying, “keep,” Soto is meant to interrupt for second. That’s solely a guess, however no matter he’s saying, it’s clear he’s speaking one thing pressing to the participant who’s about to steal. Richardson positively doesn’t do that each time, however no less than on the sector, he typically seems to be just like the brains of the operation.

In much less succesful fingers, these large strolling leads and early breaks are harmful. They make it very easy to get picked off. We often consider them as a high-risk, high-reward tactic, however the Mets appear to have eliminated all the danger. They’re not stealing all that usually, as a result of they’re solely stealing after they’re positive the pitcher gained’t step off or throw over. Possibly there’s some luck blended in with all this preparation, however they’re in vary of three information now, and it’s anybody’s guess after they lastly get caught once more.