The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola early within the offseason, made a giant push to signal Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and an opportunity nonetheless stays that they may make yet one more splash within the free agent pitching market. Based on USA Right now’s Bob Nightengale, Philadelphia could be open to bringing Blake Snell into the fold, however not on a long-term deal. A one-year pact or a shorter-term contract could be the Phils’ choice, or fairly presumably the type of three-year cope with a number of opt-outs lately signed by different Boras Company purchasers Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.
The information isn’t stunning within the sense that loads of groups would equally like to have Snell on these phrases, although the Phillies’ curiosity in Snell was described by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark again in November as “lukewarm.” In Stark’s view, the Phils noticed Snell as a fallback plan in the event that they couldn’t add their higher-priority targets (i.e. Nola or Yamamoto). There’s additionally the truth that the Phillies have already got a set rotation on paper, with Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez combining to kind a really stable beginning 5.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has spoken a number of occasions this offseason about how a lot he likes his rotation choices, and about how the Phils’ different forays into the beginning pitching market had been targeted on depth additions. That mentioned, Dombrowski additionally famous final month that “I can’t let you know that anyone doesn’t fall into your lap sooner or later the place you say, ’Gee, that’s a possibility we are able to’t flip down.’ ” It appears attainable that Snell’s seemingly restricted market may now signify such a chance for the Phillies to become involved.
Snell’s reported willingness to think about shorter-term provides may imply {that a} five- or six-year contract merely won’t be on the desk at this late date within the offseason. Even again in mid-February, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald puzzled if Snell could be higher off aiming for a really excessive common annual worth inside a short-term deal, so the left-hander may then doubtlessly choose out subsequent winter when the market is extra favorable and extra groups could be prepared to spend. The Yankees, Giants, and Angels have all been linked to Snell’s market, and that checklist in all probability widens significantly ought to the reigning NL Cy Younger winner begin specializing in simply short-term contracts with opt-outs connected.
Philadelphia is undoubtedly in win-now mode, and each Dombrowski and group chairman John Middleton have a historical past of constructing aggressive strikes seeking a World Sequence crown. Signing Snell and transferring to both some type of six-man rotation or in making Sanchez one thing of an over-qualified swingman would enhance what’s already a very good rotation, and no postseason opponent would wish to face the trio of Snell, Wheeler, and Nola inside a brief collection.
At the same time as a short-term signing, nevertheless, Snell has its drawbacks for the Phillies. The membership must quit $1MM in worldwide bonus pool funds and its second- and fifth-highest picks within the 2024 draft, as a result of Snell rejected a qualifying supply and since Philadelphia was a luxury-tax payor in 2023. Actually, the Phils have crossed the Aggressive Steadiness Tax threshold in every of the final two years and are poised to make it a trifecta in 2024, with a projected CBT variety of $261MM (as per RosterResource).
This determine is already over the second-highest penalty threshold of $257MM, and including Snell would absolutely put Philadelphia over the third tier of $277MM. Groups who cross that third tier face the additional penalty of a ten-slot drop for his or her first choice within the following season’s draft, in addition to even steeper monetary prices. As a three-time tax payor, the Phillies could be taxed at a 95% charge for each greenback spent above the $277MM mark.
For a one-year splurge on Snell, Middleton may deem the CBT prices as price it if the left-hander is a ultimate piece who can nab the Phillies that elusive championship. However the threat is clear, as if Snell struggles in 2024 or will get injured, out of the blue what may’ve seemed like a one-year cope with Snell opting out now appears extra like a fuller dedication or two or three years, and an additional pressure on the Phillies’ books. This won’t be splendid for a group that has been prioritizing an extension with Wheeler, and many of the Phils’ most outstanding gamers are signed by at the least 2025.