Generally you simply can’t look ahead to the weekend. On Friday afternoon, the Rockies traded longtime third baseman Ryan McMahon to the Yankees in change for pitching prospects Griffin Herring and Josh Grosz. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the deal, whereas Jorge Castillo of ESPN was first to report Herring’s inclusion and Bob Nightengale of USA At this time was first to call Grosz.
McMahon was drafted by Colorado in 2013 and has spent his complete nine-year profession with the Rockies; he ranks ninth in franchise historical past in video games performed. He’s within the fourth yr of a six-year, $70 million extension, and the Yankees will tackle the remainder of his remaining contract. He’s owed a tad lower than $4.2 million this season, and $16 million a yr in each 2026 and 2027. On the time of the commerce, the Yankees have an 88.8% likelihood of constructing the playoffs, however they’re 4 1/2 video games again of the Blue Jays within the AL East after dropping two of three in Toronto earlier this week. New York might use a lift, and to say that McMahon has the potential to fill a place of want can be an understatement.
When Jay Jaffe wrote up the Yankees’ third base scenario in his Substitute-Degree Killers Collection, he led off by saying, “Areas of want don’t get extra obvious than this.” Oswald Peraza has spent extra video games at third than another Yankee, and amazingly, his season wRC+ of 24 drops to 10 in case you simply take a look at his time as a 3rd baseman. Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit like loopy whereas spending the month of June at third base, however he’s now again at second, the place he began the season. The Yankees launched DJ LeMahieu a couple of weeks in the past. Oswaldo Cabrera has an 83 wRC+ and suffered an ankle damage in Could that may maintain him out till at the very least late September. Jorbit Vivas is batting .164 over his first 65 main league plate appearances.
Put all of it collectively, and the Yankees have obtained simply 0.6 WAR from the third base place, which ranks twenty third in baseball (although it does put them forward of fellow playoff contenders the Phillies and Cubs). If you happen to low cost Chisholm’s time at third, New York would fall all the best way to -0.7. This can be a workforce in dire want of an improve. That mentioned, the Yankees usually are not getting Eugenio Suárez. Let me hit you with a put up from former FanGraphs editor Jon Tayler:
Jon omitted McMahon’s sometimes nice protection, which has pushed him to 1.4 WAR, however his level remains to be clear. McMahon hasn’t hit significantly better than the Yankees third basemen this season. It’s shocking, however in eight full main league seasons, McMahon has by no means as soon as put up even a league-average batting line. He hits the ball exhausting and takes his walks, however he’s putting out almost 32% of the time and he’s by no means surpassed 24 residence runs in a season. His greatest yr got here in 2022, when he ran a wRC+ of 97 and put up 3.1 WAR. Clearly, the Yankees see the potential for extra, so let’s discuss causes for optimism.
We now have to begin with exit velocity. McMahon has at all times hit the ball exhausting, however he’s ascended to a brand new aircraft this season. He’s tied for sixth amongst all certified hitters in common exit velocity. The one gamers forward of him are Oneil Cruz, Aaron Choose, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, and Juan Soto. That is rarefied air (in rarefied air). McMahon’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity is roughly the identical because it’s been for the previous few years, however even when he hasn’t accessed a wholly new gear of top-end energy, it’s shocking that every one that further exhausting contact hasn’t resulted in elevated manufacturing. He’s operating profession highs in barrel charge, pulled air ball charge, and launch angle on hard-hit balls. That’s not often a recipe for a career-high 63-point hole between your anticipated slugging proportion (.466) and your precise slugging proportion (.403).
McMahon additionally has the perfect xwOBA (.343) and greatest DRC+ (93) of his profession. His luck ought to change in some unspecified time in the future. Furthermore, a left-handed hitter who simply raised his pulled air ball charge from 11.1% to 18.8% appears more likely to do fairly nicely in Yankee Stadium. Leaving Coors Discipline could harm, however on the danger of being cynical, heading to a unique group and new teaching workers might be going to assist. The scenario isn’t precisely analogous, however I’d refer you to Chisholm, who ran a 102 wRC+ with the Marlins and to date is at 135 with the Yankees. For that matter, LeMahieu represents one other former Rockie who joined the Yankees on the age of 30 and instantly blossomed on the plate.
Over the course of his profession, McMahon has actual platoon splits. He’s acquired a 95 wRC+ in opposition to righties, in comparison with 75 in opposition to lefties. This season, he’s all the best way right down to 58 in opposition to lefties. Nonetheless, if any workforce can take in that situation, it’s the Yankees, whose 120 wRC+ in opposition to lefties is the perfect in baseball. Supervisor Aaron Boone expressed pleasure about McMahon throughout his pregame press convention on Friday. “I do know there’s actual offensive potential in there,” he mentioned. “I do know he’s had offensive success, in addition to some struggles there over the past calendar yr too. It looks as if over the past month, he’s actually began to swing the bat like he’s able to. As a result of he can impression the ball, he can management the strike zone. He’s had some swing-and-miss that most likely harm him slightly bit, however then he can actually defend over there. Simply the handful of instances that we’ve performed in opposition to them that I watch him, you’re like, ‘That’s what it ought to seem like over there.’”
Boone’s estimation of McMahon over the past month shouldn’t be fairly correct, although the third baseman has been swinging a scorching bat over the past two weeks. In 9 video games since July 11, he has a 197 wRC+ throughout 36 plate appearances. From June 25-July 9, the earlier two weeks, McMahon had a -27 wRC+ over 14 video games and 51 plate appearances.
For the remainder of the season, McMahon has a reasonably low bar to clear to symbolize an enchancment. If all he does is maintain taking part in the best way he has on either side of the ball, he’ll be higher than what the Yankees would in any other case have gotten at third. If his luck modifications and some extra of these hard-hit balls discover grass (or the brief porch), , he’s up round league common on the plate and an enormous improve for New York. If the Yankees will help him to take advantage of his pull energy, he might be a difference-maker going ahead. McMahon has put up 10.7 WAR since 2021, making him a reliably wholesome, reliably barely above-average third baseman, and he’s underneath contract by 2027.
As for the Rockies’ portion of the commerce, dealing a favourite like McMahon with two and a half years left on his contract alerts an actual departure. As Darragh McDonald famous at MLB Commerce Rumors, the Rockies are keen on extending less-productive homegrown gamers, and have additionally let gamers like Trevor Story and Jon Grey stroll in free company moderately than buying and selling them on the deadline. It could be an acknowledgement of simply how deep a gap the workforce has dug for itself.
That is the primary time we’ve written about both Herring or Grosz right here at FanGraphs, so after this paragraph, every little thing you learn was written by Eric Longenhagen. The Yankees drafted the left-handed Herring out of LSU within the sixth spherical in 2024, and Eric at the moment has a future worth of 40 on him. The 22-year-old has been dominant in his first skilled season, and in response to MLB Pipeline, he slots in because the workforce’s fifth-ranked prospect. Josh Grosz, who can be 22, jumps to the very high of the listing of gamers most probably to be confused with Josh Sborz. The Yankees drafted the righty Grosz out of East Carolina within the eleventh spherical in 2023, and though his outcomes have been various as far as knowledgeable, he’s operating a 3.38 FIP in Excessive-A and putting out almost 10 batters per 9 innings. Eric has a future worth of 35+ on him. With that, listed here are Eric’s breakdowns:
Griffin Herring
Herring spent two years as LSU’s most constant lengthy reliever (working as many as 5 innings) and was a draft-eligible sophomore in 2024. The Yankees made a number of modifications to his supply and pitch utilization, which helped him dominate Low-A and earn a promotion after simply eight begins. He had a 1.71 ERA mixed at each ranges on the time of the commerce, although his Ok% dipped fairly a bit after he was moved as much as Hudson Valley. Herring’s fastball solely averages about 90 mph however lives off deception and driving life. Since turning professional, his arm slot has been raised, however his stride down the mound has gotten greater and longer, and his extension was simply shy of seven toes on the time of the commerce.
His free, whippy arm motion prevents hitters from seeing the baseball till launch, and regardless of missing something near MLB common fastball velocity, Herring’s heater has generated above-average chase-and-miss to date this yr. With the Yankees, Herring additionally emphasised using his slider, which has turn out to be his most-deployed pitch. It ranged from 80-85 mph in his last Yankee outing previous to the deal, and has tight late motion however lacks large depth. It’s taking part in like an above-average pitch in professional ball. Herring didn’t actually have a changeup in faculty, however he’s added one as a professional and is throwing it about 14% of the time. His really feel for it isn’t dangerous contemplating he’s simply begun utilizing it, but it surely usually cuts on him or finishes too excessive. A clean on-mound operator, Herring appears to be like the a part of a starter regardless that he isn’t particularly bodily due to his mechanical grace. It’s spectacular that he’s maintained his glorious faculty strike-throwing regardless that his supply has been modified, and he tasks as a high-floor backend starter.
Josh Grosz
Grosz began for the higher a part of his final two years at ECU, and although his strike-throwing backed up throughout his draft spring, he nonetheless entered professional ball with a shot to begin based mostly on the depth of his repertoire and the misleading cadence of his supply. This can be a pitcher with dangerous fastball form, however the jerky cadence and brief actions of Grosz’s supply make him powerful for hitters to time. He’s added a few tick and a half of velo to his fastball since turning professional, although this seems to be extra a results of power coaching than on account of a mechanical overhaul. Grosz sits 92-95 with equal elements rise and run, successfully giving him a sinker from his three-quarters arm slot. His slider is difficult, 83-86 mph on common, and lives on the glove facet half of the plate as extra of a flinch-inducing, strike-getting pitch than a nasty bat-misser. The most important change for Grosz in professional ball has been the make-up and utilization of his changeup. It appears to be like like Grosz is utilizing a splinker-style grip, and it has extra constant sink now than when he was in faculty, although it nonetheless is usually a tailing pitch. That is producing essentially the most constant chase-and-miss of Grosz’s three pitches, regardless that it’s his first yr of utilizing it often. And not using a plus providing, he appears to be like like a constant, low-variance depth starter.
Affiliate editor Matt Martell contributed reporting to this text.
