These Three Hitters Can Hit Their Peak Projection in 2024

Amongst different issues, we at FanGraphs are recognized for our projections, particularly at the moment of 12 months. We wish to suppose that’s as a result of our projection programs are good! However it’s value remembering that projections all the time embody uncertainly. ZiPS, for instance, displays a spread of projected outcomes primarily based on one million simulations of the approaching season, with the primary percentile representing the worst projected efficiency and the 99th percentile, the perfect. The numbers you see on our participant pages mirror the fiftieth percentile projection — the median projected consequence — for every participant.

For me, the enjoyable begins when the projections are reside, as a result of I exploit them as a place to begin to start my very own evaluation utilizing information factors that aren’t folded into the participant projections, akin to video and bat monitoring data. I like utilizing these instruments as a result of they permit me to see whether or not a participant has a basis in place that would assist him exceed his median projection. For this piece, I need to give attention to gamers’ potential ceilings, which I’ll outline as their ninetieth percentile projection, in order that we are able to keep inside the realm of risk. (Theoretically, a participant may hit 80 dwelling runs this season, which might absolutely be his peak efficiency, however that’s so extraordinarily unlikely to occur that it’s not value contemplating right here.) From the mannequin’s perspective, all gamers’ ninetieth percentile outcomes are equally probably; my evaluation is extra subjective. I’ll use further data to strengthen confidence {that a} participant can certainly attain his ceiling.

The objective right here was to take a look at gamers who’ve plenty of uncertainty of their projections, on account of a risky profile, an unproven observe document, or each. From there, I settled on a gaggle of three inherently dangerous gamers who’ve particular traits that I believe ought to result in a right away enchancment. With that mentioned, let’s get began:

I’ve offered Adolis García’s 2023 efficiency to offer a comparability to his 2024 projections. Going into final season, García’s fiftieth percentile OPS+ and WAR had been 103 and a couple of.0, respectively, which means that his precise manufacturing significantly exceeded his median projection. In response to this, ZiPS is extra assured in García getting into this season, at the same time as his profile stays risky.

Is it attainable for him to get much more out of his bat this season? I believe so. When it comes to plate self-discipline and swing selections, García made a big stride ahead in 2023. Nevertheless, his projections anticipate his BB/Ok ratio to regress from his .37 mark final season and be nearer to his 2022 degree of .22. Utilizing Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which calculates a mix of selectivity and strategic aggression, García scored a 19.4% final 12 months. That was within the 88th percentile of hitters, an enchancment from being barely above common in 2022.

García barely improved his Hittable Pitch Take%, whereas concurrently growing his Selectivity% by almost 5 share factors. Sure, that helped him draw extra walks than was anticipated of him, nevertheless it additionally allowed him to crush 39 homers. García is following an intuitive path to plate self-discipline enchancment. After posting backside decile whiff and chase charges in 2021 and 2022, he considerably lower down on his chasing final 12 months. Now that he has confirmed to own a greater understanding of the strike zone, the following step is to cease whiffing as a lot. His mechanics are environment friendly, his plate protection is sweet, and he has already proven a knack for enchancment. That’s a darn good recipe for a participant seeking to get probably the most out of his expertise.

García’s case is a bit easier than the 2 gamers we’ll focus on subsequent. Let’s transfer onto one other gifted outfielder:

I’m a Riley Greene believer. My expectations for him final 12 months had been greater than the place his efficiency fell, however he additionally had two unlikely accidents that would clarify his underwhelming season. In Could, he had a stress fracture in his fibula that triggered him to overlook simply over a month. Then, after trying incredible in his return, he tore his UCL in his non-throwing arm. It was a weird little bit of luck for a participant seeking to show himself as a cornerstone piece in Detroit. His projections for 2024 mirror a large internet of uncertainty in his offensive profile, but additionally a excessive ceiling as a result of he boasts nice hitting expertise and is just getting into his age-23 season.

Greene hits the snot out of the ball. His xwOBACON of .477 was within the prime 4% of the league. His means to control his posture to get to totally different pitch heights permits him to have nice plate protection. His common 40.4-degree Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) – the angle of the barrel relative to the bottom at influence – is among the many steepest within the majors, and he combines it with a path that all the time works up and thru the baseball. In consequence, he has a super launch-angle distribution and persistently flush batted-ball spin. Listed here are a number of movies of him masking pitches all around the strike zone:

Velocity up? Test. Gradual and away? Test. Again foot breaker? Test. His swing is so versatile due to how he modifies his torso tilt whereas nonetheless sustaining upward angles on his swings. He’s able to attending to absolutely anything, which is why he was so good towards breaking balls on the season, with with a .366 xwOBA towards them that ranked 18th amongst 260 hitters who noticed no less than 400 such pitches in 2023. His proficient barrel and physique variabilities are the precise expertise I’m in search of when betting on a participant to hit his ceiling, particularly if the hitter impacts the ball like Greene does. With well being and higher managed aggression, Greene will put himself in a terrific place to hit his ninetieth percentile consequence. A 151 OPS+ could be a significant step up from the 117 he posted final 12 months, however at instances, he has already flashed that degree of dominance. The ultimate piece of the puzzle is consistency.

Now, let’s consider an thrilling younger catcher seeking to show his 2023 season was no fluke:

Bo Naylor hit his tail off final 12 months to the tune of a 124 wRC+. In a Guardians lineup that didn’t have a lot past José Ramírez and older brother Josh Naylor, Bo emerged as one of many workforce’s prime offensive contributors from the second he cemented himself as the first catcher. His nice efficiency, albeit in restricted time, is mirrored in his ceiling, whereas his flooring relies on his lack of a observe document within the majors.

It’s a superb signal every time a younger catcher has such a stable fiftieth percentile projection, although in Naylor’s case, the expectation is that his energy will drop off. That’s affordable when you think about his .232 ISO final 12 months would’ve been third amongst catchers with no less than 300 plate appearances, although his 30.8% hard-hit price would’ve ranked 235th among the many 258 certified hitters, based on Baseball Savant. On prime of that, Naylor outpaced his anticipated statistics by fairly a large margin. His .347 wOBA was significantly greater than his .309 xwOBA and his .379 xSLG was far off from his .470 mark. However wait a minute — we all know that there’s typically extra to uncover once we see discrepancies like this. Is Naylor a type of circumstances?

Of the 406 gamers final 12 months who had no less than 100 batted balls, Naylor ranked 18th in Pulled FB% (sourced from Orr’s leaderboards once more). If Naylor is without doubt one of the higher gamers within the recreation at pulling fly balls persistently, then he ought to be capable of outperform his anticipated statistics once more in 2024. Does he have the swing mechanics and path to maintain up this tempo? Naylor, a left-handed batter, is usually hitting with the platoon benefit, making it simpler for him to create the Horizontal Bat Angles (HBA) required to drag these pitches persistently. Matchups with righty pitchers are perfect for lefty hitters with pulled fly ball approaches. Listed here are a number of clips that present him executing that swing on totally different pitches:

Naylor goes to be challenged to hit pitches away from his physique to the pull facet, but when he can maintain that entrance facet locked like he did in these swings, he could possibly sustain his pull facet success regardless of the shortage of uncooked energy. In these swings, he confirmed that he can activate 99 mph warmth, but additionally that he can keep disciplined sufficient to attend on an 88 mph changeup. Given what we learn about his endurance and plate self-discipline, Naylor is the kind of participant who ought to be capable of match his swing selections together with his swing strengths. That’s an vital talent that would assist him construct upon his spectacular debut.