Christian Walker Hasn’t Fastened the Astros’ First Base Downside

When the Astros signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal in December, it felt like an affordable answer to a longstanding drawback. The Astros have hardly ever gotten good manufacturing from their first basemen prior to now decade, and whereas Walker hasn’t fairly been All-Star caliber, lately he’s typically offered stable offense with distinctive protection for the place. To this point this season, he’s struggled mightily, which sadly for the Astros has come at a time when different key gamers have additionally did not hit, and the rotation has weathered quite a few accidents as effectively.

Final yr, Walker hit .251/.335/.468 (119 wRC+) with 26 homers and three.0 WAR for the Diamondbacks, whereas over the previous three seasons, he averaged 32 homers, a 120 wRC+, and three.6 WAR; his 2024 shortfalls primarily owed to his lacking a month as a result of an indirect pressure. Even with time missed, that 2024 manufacturing appears to be like just like the second coming of Jeff Bagwell subsequent to the .226/.291/.360 (87 wRC+) efficiency of Astros first basemen final yr, with 18 homers however -1.4 WAR, a complete that was in some way not fairly as unhealthy as the primary basemen of the Rockies and Reds. Starter José Abreu crashed and burned and was launched in mid-June regardless of solely being about midway by way of his three-year, $58 million deal. Thereafter, Jon Singleton did the majority of the primary base work, sharing the job with Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini on days when one or the opposite wasn’t catching. It wasn’t nice, nevertheless it not less than stopped the bleeding in that Abreu alone produced -1.5 WAR, whereas the remainder — a gaggle that additionally included Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubón, and three gamers who made a single look on the place — netted 0.1 WAR.

As Michael Baumann identified when Walker signed in December, first base has been a multiyear drawback for the Astros. Throughout the 2022-24 span, solely three groups had decrease WARs at a single place — proper subject for the White Sox, Rockies, and Pirates — than the Astros’ -2.7 WAR at first. Over the previous decade, Yuli Gurriel was the one Astros first baseman to exceed 2.0 WAR in a single season (he did it twice), and 5 instances prior to now six seasons, the crew’s common or co-regular first baseman completed with damaging WAR.

Sadly by way of the season’s first eight weeks, the 34-year-old Walker has match proper into this sample, hitting .199/.268/.333. After all, he’s not the one place participant from our High 50 Free Brokers listing who modified groups this previous winter and has struggled:

That’s seven out of 14 who’re beneath alternative stage almost one-third of the best way by way of the season, and 9 beneath league common by way of offense. Walker’s manufacturing — and contract — appears to be like even worse when in comparison with that of the person he initially changed in Arizona. Goldschmidt, who’s 3 1/2 years older, hit for only a 100 wRC+ final season, and settled for a one-year, $12.5 million cope with the Yankees, which proper now appears to be like like a incredible cut price.

Walker’s season has already included some ups and downs, in that he had a three-week interval the place he appeared to emerge from his droop. These are arbitrary endpoints, chosen as an instance the distinction between these unequal segments of his season:

Shortly after that sizzling streak ended — actually, earlier than anybody found out that it had ended, simply that he’d had back-to again hitless video games for the primary time in 4 weeks — Walker sounded as if he believed the worst of his unhealthy begin was over. “I needed to remind myself [that] my swing isn’t damaged,” he instructed MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart on Might 13. “I’m feeling good, feeling way more aggressive. Feeling like I’m serving to the crew extra, which I like. Total, I really feel prefer it’s trending in the best route, for certain.”

Extra from McTaggart:

When he was struggling at his lowest factors, Walker felt he was getting too “pushy” along with his arms, which suggests he was pushing his arms off his physique as an alternative of pushing down within the zone earlier than working the bat up by way of the zone. He stated nothing was clicking or making sense.

“And it was only a matter of which drill, which really feel, which thought within the field is all going to make that come out,” Walker stated. “You may get the cage work feeling good, however attempting to take one thing relevant into the sport, into the field, that retains you within the second, retains you reactive, but additionally provides you a house. No matter is clicking proper now, the sensation, I’m certain it is going to change slightly bit, however I’m positively feeling higher, for certain.”

Not like, say, Trevor Story, whose present offensive stats are notably out of whack relative to his monitor document nearly in every single place one may look, Walker’s total 2025 numbers typically don’t provide evident contrasts to what got here earlier than. That stated, a lot of the comparatively delicate variations present setbacks somewhat than enhancements. His 50.2% swing fee is up about two factors over final yr. His 27.9% chase fee is up almost 4 factors from final yr and is his highest mark since 2020. His 74.9% contact fee and 12.5% swinging strike fee are his worst marks since 2021, the yr he hit for simply an 88 wRC+ in 115 video games. His swing selections, as measured by Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, have gotten worse. The place he ranked within the ninety fifth to 99th percentile in SEAGER yearly from 2022–24 — which is to say, he was exceptionally good at figuring out and swinging on the pitches with which he may do actual harm — he’s down within the sixtieth percentile now. Because of this, Walker’s 6.8% stroll fee and 27.8% strikeout fee are his worst marks since he turned a daily in 2019; his stroll fee has dropped 3.2 share factors from 2024, whereas his strikeout fee has gained 3.7 factors relative to final yr and (gulp) 8.6 factors relative to 2023.

A take a look at Walker’s bat monitoring metrics present that he’s misplaced a little bit of bat pace, dipping from a mean of 75 mph (with a 52.8% quick swing fee) final yr to 74.1 (with a 40.6% quick swing fee) this yr. These are averages, and a examine of his month-to-month splits reveals that he dropped to 73.7 mph in March and April earlier than rebounding to 74.6 this month. Not that it has correlated with improved manufacturing, not less than based mostly on his month-to-month splits: .196/.277/.355 (82 wRC+) by way of April, and .203/.256/.304 (58 wRC+) to date in Might.

Testing the model new swing path metrics that Statcast rolled out earlier this week — name this a check drive, because it’s the primary time I’ve performed with these — the numbers present that the common tilt of Walker’s swing has flattened by one diploma total relative to final yr, from 30 levels to 29. That isn’t damning in and of itself, and should have extra to do with the place he’s being pitched than some mechanical subject. In the meantime, he’s truly improved his best angle of assault fee — the frequency with which his bat is angled between 5 and 20 levels on the level of contact — from 46.9% final yr to 55.2% this yr. Once more, that doesn’t line up along with his stage of manufacturing, although inside this season’s numbers, he had a barely greater fee in his less-terrible March/April (56.7%) than his woeful Might (53.3%).

Be aware that I additionally tried lining up these new metrics with the arbitrary endpoints above that confirmed shifts in his manufacturing. Essentially the most revealing break up I discovered was that in this dire current stretch that started on Might 12, he’s averaged 75.6 mph along with his swings, in comparison with 73.1 mph throughout his good stretch, suggesting he might have to dial it again only a bit.

Again in additional acquainted analytical territory, I see two evident variations which might be slicing into Walker’s manufacturing. First off, he’s taken simply 27 plate appearances towards lefties and has hit .087/.185/.130 — that’s two hits, a single and a double, plus three walks. His 13.1% share of PA towards lefties truly stands out greater than that grim slash line, as a result of it isn’t as if he’s platooning; he’s began 49 of the Astros’ 50 video games at first, and gone the space in 44. The Astros have taken a significant league-low 258 PA (13.9%) towards lefties; the next-lowest crew, the Angels, has 290 (16.1%), and the third-lowest crew, the A’s, has 370 (19.6%). Like most righties, Walker hits higher towards lefties; from 2022–24, he batted .264/.350/.492 (128 wRC+) in 480 PA (25.5% of his complete), in comparison with .245/.325/.478 (118 wRC+) towards righties. He’s lacking out on an vital portion of his offensive food regimen.

The opposite factor that actually stands out in Walker’s 2025 stats relative to current years is that he’s all of the sudden struggling mightily towards four-seam fastballs:

Walker’s manufacturing towards the warmers was fairly constant from 2022-24, along with his drop-off from ’23 to ’24 extra a correction relative to his anticipated stats than a real decline; his xwOBA towards them in 2024 truly improved by 35 factors whilst his wOBA fell by 28 factors. By way of Statcast run worth, he’s dropped from 9 runs above common final yr (and 35 above from 2022–24) to 4 beneath common this yr. His efficiency towards changeups has declined notably as effectively, from a .328 AVG/.656 SLG in 2024 to .158 AVG/.263 SLG in ’25, with a Statcast run worth drop from six above common to 2 beneath.

With reference to anticipated versus precise numbers, Walker’s high quality of contact has fallen off only a bit, nevertheless it’s nonetheless fairly good. What’s actually modified is the hole between his precise and anticipated numbers; take a look at the drops in his percentile rankings:

Walker outdid his xSLG final yr by 11 factors, however this yr, he’s 74 factors brief. Likewise, he was eight factors wanting his xwOBA final yr, however is 41 factors brief this yr; he’s within the nineteenth percentile by way of each of these gaps, which have elevated throughout this newest droop. Since Might 12, he’s averaged a 93.3 mph exit velo with a 20% barrel fee, 53.3% hard-hit fee, and a .309 xwOBA (that current 30.4% strikeout fee is admittedly slicing into his manufacturing), however has only a .161 wOBA over that span.

It bears noting that whereas Walker is pulling the ball extra typically, each within the air (22.3% vs. 19.2%) and total (44.6% vs. 41%), he’s taking part in in a much less favorable park for righties besides in the case of house runs (thanks, Crawford Packing containers), not less than based on our 2024 park elements by handedness, that are based mostly on 5 years of information:

Fewer lefties, a drop in bat pace, hassle with four-seamers, a much less favorable ballpark, maybe some unhealthy luck — all of those elements are slicing into Walker’s manufacturing, they usually’re including up at an inopportune time for the Astros. Yordan Alvarez has hit simply .210/.306/.340 (78 wRC+) and has been out since Might 2 as a result of a muscle pressure in his proper hand. Jose Altuve, who homered twice within the Astros’ 9-2 win over the Mariners on Thursday, is hitting .243/.296/.370 (89 wRC+) and hasn’t clicked in his new place, left subject (-6 DRS, -2 FRV), and the crew’s second basemen — primarily Brendan Rodgers (26 video games) but additionally Dubón (15 video games) and Altuve himself (10 video games) have mixed to hit .216/.280/.284 (63 wRC+) in that function. In the meantime, throughout the previous week, Hayden Wesneski realized that he wants Tommy John surgical procedure whereas Ronel Blanco has been sidelined by a bout of elbow irritation, operating the crew’s complete of injured starters to 6.

That the Astros are in some way 26-24 with a 56.6% probability of creating the playoffs regardless of that litany is definitely considerably spectacular. Nonetheless, it is a crew that’s relying on its two oldest place gamers (the 35-year-old Altuve and Walker) and a famous person with a hand harm to show issues round whereas having two inexperienced rookies within the rotation (Colton Gordon and Ryan Gusto) in addition to Lance McCullers Jr., who lately returned from a 2 1/2-year absence as a result of accidents. For all of their current success, nothing is assured for these Astros — or for Walker.