One among free company’s prime hitters discovered a house early Sunday morning, as heart fielder Cody Bellinger is in settlement with the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal per Jeff Passan of ESPN. Per Passan, the deal contains opt-outs following the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Passan provides that the deal is considerably frontloaded, with Bellinger making $30MM in 2024 and 2025 with a $20MM wage in 2026.
Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year take care of the membership final winter and delivering a wonderful platform marketing campaign. In 556 journeys to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 dwelling runs and 20 stolen bases whereas splitting time between heart discipline and first base for Chicago. That efficiency earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 end in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to money on this winter with a serious contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger because the #2 free agent on this yr’s class behind solely two-way famous person Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Prime 50 MLB free brokers listing.
As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it grew to become obvious a $200MM+ dedication wouldn’t be within the playing cards. In his current Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM take care of a pair of opt-outs. Whereas Bellinger entered the winter with loads of huge market golf equipment seemingly within the working for his companies together with the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, every pivoted in different instructions all through the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol heart, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void of their outfield combine, and the Blue Jays modified course after lacking out on Shohei Ohtani to as a substitute deal with smaller offers for gamers reminiscent of Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outdoors of the incumbent Cubs, although his free company continued into Spring Coaching as his camp held out for a long run deal whereas the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in ready out the market. Finally, Chicago was rewarded for its endurance, because the membership will retain Bellinger’s companies for at the very least the 2024 marketing campaign on a comparatively low-cost deal just like the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Company shopper Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons in the past.
Quite a lot of elements past his comparatively small variety of suitors probably contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Wonderful as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly whereas contending with shoulder points and a fractured fibula in the course of the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Although he managed to take the sector for 900 plate appearances throughout the 2 seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 throughout that point, a far cry from the profession .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the 12 months and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
Whereas Bellinger’s 
robust and wholesome 2023 marketing campaign actually helped to assuage the considerations introduced on by his dismal campaigns within the prior two seasons, a take a look at his superior metrics reveals some trigger for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 marketing campaign might not be solely sustainable. Whereas Bellinger’s career-best batting common final season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout price, it was additionally propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his profession .277 mark coming into the 2023 season by greater than 40 factors.
That leap in good batted ball fortune got here regardless of unusually low contact high quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s common exit velocity, barrel price, and Laborious-Hit proportion had been all effectively under common, touchdown within the twenty second, twenty seventh, and tenth percentile respectively amongst certified main leaguers. Taken collectively, these peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league common xwOBA of simply .330 final yr, 40 factors under his wonderful .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in current seasons and the regarding peripherals underlying his 2023 return to kind, it’s not a whole shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility relatively than a prolonged deal that maximizes assure.
Such a contract may set Bellinger up for a way more important payday sooner or later. As famous by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his current look at the opportunity of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually younger for a free agent and, as such, could also be uniquely suited to a short-term association. If Bellinger can preserve an identical stage of manufacturing to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a close to lock to choose out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free company, the place he could be advertising his age-29 marketing campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Supply, which the Cubs prolonged to Bellinger this winter. Subsequent yr’s free agent class can also be prone to profit from extra certainty relating to the continuing Diamond Sports activities chapter, which has impacted the TV offers of some contenders such because the Rangers and Twins. These golf equipment had been joined in largely standing pat by huge spending golf equipment such because the Padres and Mets that confronted exorbitant luxurious tax payments final yr and took this offseason as a chance to reset.
Within the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, the place he instantly improves the membership’s lineup and odds of competition in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at the very least 100 journeys to the plate final yr, whereas he ranked fourth when it comes to on-base proportion. The slugger additionally gives a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who enhances righty hitters within the lineup reminiscent of Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. Along with offering the membership’s lineup with doubtlessly impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility presents the Cubs flexibility as they give the impression of being to include their bevy younger hitters into the massive league lineup frequently.
Infielder Michael Busch is prone to enter the season because the membership’s common first baseman after the membership acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal final month, leaving Bellinger to start the season because the membership’s on a regular basis possibility in heart discipline. With that being mentioned, prime prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his huge league debut final September and sports activities 80-grade protection in heart discipline. The membership’s reunion with Bellinger takes strain off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances throughout his cup of espresso final fall, to right away produce on the huge league stage and permits the Cubs to proceed his growth at Triple-A to open the yr.
Ought to Crow-Armstrong show himself able to tackle the on a regular basis job in heart someday this season, Bellinger may shift to an outfield nook, first base, and even DH relying on the well being and manufacturing of the remainder of the lineup. One chance for the Cubs could be both Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a succesful defender at third base, permitting the opposite to deal with DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be capable of transfer to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get common taking part in time in heart, although that’s only one attainable possibility for a Cubs staff that would even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or prime nook outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut someday this yr after robust performances in Double-A final season.
The reunion with Bellinger probably serves as a capstone for an offseason that noticed Chicago additionally land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran aid arm Hector Neris in free company. Membership chairman Tom Ricketts just lately indicated that the membership was unlikely to exceed the Aggressive Stability Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource initiatives the membership for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT functions, lower than $3MM under the primary $237MM threshold. Meaning a reversal of the stance could be practically necessary for the membership to make additional additions this winter, barring a commerce that clears wage elsewhere on the roster.
Picture courtesy of USA In the present day Sports activities.