Marcus Semien Tries to Shake a Season-Opening Droop

Maybe it was the batting order switcheroo, or possibly it was the minor league ballpark. Bumped out of the leadoff spot for the primary time since final August 11, and right down to fifth within the order for the primary time throughout Bruce Bochy’s run as supervisor of the Rangers, Marcus Semien recorded his first multi-hit sport of the season on Tuesday night time in Sacramento. The 34-year-old second baseman went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer, a stroll, a sacrifice fly, and 4 runs batted in towards the Athletics — a much-needed optimistic signal given his season-opening hunch.

Semien’s large night time occurred at Sutter Well being Park, the place the relocated A’s and their opponents have bashed out 5.4 runs per sport whereas batting .270/.342/.466. Whether or not or not the venue was an element, Bochy’s new lineup labored like a attraction, as new leadoff hitter Josh Smith, new no. 2 hitter Wyatt Langford, and the slumping Jake Burger all homered for the Rangers as nicely. All the pictures have been served up by 29-year-old righty Osvaldo Bido; Semien, who had already plated the Rangers’ second run with a first-inning sacrifice fly, crushed a middle-middle sinker 417 toes to heart discipline to interrupt open a 4-2 sport within the fifth inning:

The homer was simply Semien’s second of the season, and simply his third extra-base hit. He entered the sport batting .141/.209/.192 for a 17 wRC+, with all 4 of these numbers rating among the many backside 4 among the many 170 gamers with sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His new and improved slash line (.160/.231/.247, 39 wRC+) now places him among the many backside 10 qualifiers in these classes, however he isn’t near being the worst on the group. Joc Pederson (.052/.141/.069, -37 wRC+) is having even larger issues, together with an 0-for-3 on Tuesday, however the Rangers don’t have practically as a lot invested in him as they do in Semien, whom they signed to a seven-year, $175 million deal in December 2021.

Because the signing, Semien has been the linchpin of the Rangers’ lineup, combining energy, velocity, robust protection, and sturdiness. In his three full seasons with the group, he’s averaged 161 video games and twice led the majors in plate appearances and at-bats. He’s additionally made two All-Star groups and helped the Rangers win their first World Sequence, and over that span has ranked 14th within the majors in fWAR (14.8) and eighth in bWAR (17.5). By that latter measure, which incorporates his 7.7 bWAR in 2023 — tops amongst American League place gamers, however nonetheless behind the two-way work of Shohei Ohtani (10.0 bWAR) — he’s emerged as one thing of a stealth Corridor of Fame candidate, provided that he’s crossed the 40-WAR threshold for seven-year peak (40.6), a robust indicator of future election.

All through his 13-year profession with the White Sox, A’s, Blue Jays and Rangers, Semien has confirmed to be one thing of a sluggish starter. He’s a profession .239/.311/.392 (95 wRC+) hitter in March and April, in comparison with .257/.324/.448 (112 wRC+) from Could by way of the top of the common season. That’s a considerable distinction; utilizing our Splits Leaderboard instrument and a few Excel magic, I discovered it to be the Seventeenth-largest hole amongst gamers since 2010 (a cutoff I selected out of skinny air):

Semien ranks within the 81st percentile on this odd cut up, which isn’t whilst excessive as that of his double play accomplice (Seager) however it might assist to clarify his comparative dearth of All-Star picks (three) relative to his excellence as a participant. That thought occurred to me after I noticed Francisco Lindor a number of spots down the record with a 14-point distinction (109 wRC+ in March/April, 123 the remainder of the yr) and no All-Star picks since 2019.

I don’t have any clarification for this oddity, however it persists and it’s apparently not that unusual. Recall that Semien received off to a equally unhealthy begin in his first yr with the Rangers, hitting .157/.226/.217 (26 wRC+) by way of April following the lockout-abbreviated spring coaching of 2022, and whereas his last offensive numbers have been unremarkable (.248/.304/.429, 107 wRC+), that was nonetheless good for a 4.4-WAR season because of his glorious protection. Nonetheless, after a stellar 2023 (.276/.348/.478, 126 wRC+, 6.3 WAR), he slipped to .237/.308/.391 (99 wRC+) with 4.2 WAR final yr, so as with all 34-year-old participant, it’s pure to marvel if he’s instantly on the downslope of his profession.

We’re early sufficient within the season that just some statistics are beginning to stabilize, so the conclusions we draw shouldn’t be too agency, however no, I don’t assume that is the start of the top for Semien. A couple of areas of his efficiency do stand out, with most of them merely a bit askew — however throughout the small pattern, the downturn seems to be greater than the sum of its elements.

Swing charges begin to stabilize across the 350-pitch threshold, which Semien crossed on Tuesday night time, so it’s noteworthy that he’s swinging extra continuously than ever (51%), up even from final yr’s full-season excessive (50%) and nicely above his profession mark (45.4%). His 25% chase charge is a bit under final yr, however nonetheless about three factors above his profession mark. In reality, Semien is a really disciplined hitter, one who scores nicely in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which measures the standard of a hitter’s swing selections. He’s been within the ninetieth percentile or above in every of his three full seasons in Texas, together with the 94th percentile final yr, however he’s right down to the 84th percentile this yr. That’s nonetheless spectacular, in that it’s not like he’s instantly up there taking determined hacks, and it’s up from the 78th percentile, the place he was getting into Tuesday; his large sport gave most of the stats inside this piece a lift. That mentioned, his 10% swinging strike charge is his highest mark since 2017, up half a degree over final yr and a couple of.2 factors over ’23. Even when he’s making good selections about what to swing at, they’re not fairly pretty much as good as standard, and he isn’t connecting as continuously as he as soon as did.

Semien’s swing metrics inform us he’s participant who doesn’t have nice bat velocity. Even with the restricted pattern of late-season information from 2023, his 68.7 mph common swing velocity positioned within the thirteenth percentile, and he was right down to 68.3 (ninth percentile) final yr; this yr, he’s at 68.6 (twelfth percentile). His 6.5% quick swing charge may be very low (the key league common is 22.8%), however nicely above final yr’s 4.2%, so if something, one wonders if he’s swinging too onerous on the uncommon events that he does dial it up. Each his squared-up and blast charges are down (from 30.7% to 27.3% for the previous, and 9.8% to six.5% for the latter), indicating his high quality of contact is off. He’s by no means lit up the Statcast leaderboard; his barrel charges have been round league common, however his exit velocities and hard-hit charges have positioned within the decrease quartile. Right here’s a have a look at his time with the Rangers:

As you may see, there’s not an amazing distinction between this yr’s numbers and final yr’s; Semien’s barrel charge is at present within the 52nd percentile, however his exit velo and hard-hit charge are within the twenty third and fifteenth percentiles, respectively. Regardless of the same performances and the improved barrel charge relative to final yr, his anticipated numbers — which he’s far in need of, clearly — have fallen. I think that has rather a lot to do along with his distribution of batted balls to this point, because it’s out of whack along with his norms:

Semien is hitting way more grounders than standard, and he’s pulling them way more typically. He’s batting simply .207 on grounders, down from precisely .255 in every of the previous three seasons (uncanny!). That would appear to clarify a part of what’s occurring.

When a participant in his mid-30s begins to battle, it’s affordable to wonder if he’s having bother dealing with fastballs. We’re entering into smaller samples inside an already-small pattern, however Semien is doing tremendous towards four-seamers (.333 AVG/.500 SLG, in comparison with .243 AVG/.437 SLG final yr). What’s odd is that he’s simply 1-for-20 (.050) towards sinkers, which he dealt with moderately nicely final yr (.273 AVG/.405 SLG), if not in addition to the typical main leaguer (.284 AVG/.421 SLG). Of the 18 sinkers he’s put into play, 12 have been grounders. He’s additionally a mixed 1-for-24 towards sliders and sweepers — each of which he struggled towards final yr — although of the 19 put in play, solely eight have been grounders.

As to why Semien is hitting extra grounders, and why fewer of these grounders have gotten hits, I can’t say, however it’s early sufficient that every one of this might very nicely come out within the wash. We’ve seen Semien undergo funks like this earlier than, and with rising frequency throughout his Rangers years:

The variations in Semien’s underlying metrics relative to current years are small, however they’ve added as much as a really massive drop that, once more, most likely owes a lot to pattern measurement and to the timing of our focus; we wouldn’t discover his hunch practically as a lot if it occurred in August, 4 or 5 hundred plate appearances into the season. A season-opening hunch inevitably raises questions relating to whether or not a participant has instantly gone over the hill with the flip of the calendar, however it’s comprehensible if psychological elements come into play as nicely. As former YES Community broadcaster Ken Singleton — an distinctive hitter who nonetheless endured some sluggish begins — used to say, it’s no enjoyable to search for at that scoreboard and see that you just’re nonetheless “caught on the interstate” with a batting common that begins with a 1 (as in, wanting like a capital I).

Whereas the Rangers are off to a 14-9 begin regardless of a -12 run differential, they entered Tuesday ranked twenty fifth within the majors with an 84 wRC+ (.220/.274/.363), and twenty ninth in scoring (3.05 runs per sport). The time was ripe for Bochy to shake issues up.

“I don’t have any say proper now, till I begin getting again to doing what I do,” Semien mentioned when requested in regards to the lineup previous to the sport. “I’ve no say, in order that’s the place I’m at. I hit some balls onerous final sport. There’s sure days the place I come again into the clubhouse after the sport pondering that day may have been rather a lot totally different on the stat sheet, if I discovered the hole right here or there. Nevertheless it hasn’t been that method proper now. It’s irritating. However like I mentioned, the Rangers are enjoying nicely. That’s what issues.”

Perhaps the downscaled venue had one thing to do with Semien’s large night time. “All of us hit nicely within the minors,” he mentioned afterwards. “So let’s simply fake it’s the minors. That’s how all of us received right here, possibly that’s why.”