Ceddanne Rafaela Can Bounce | FanGraphs Baseball

Ceddanne Rafaela can soar. He can sure up and over a excessive outfield wall to rob a house run. He can leap ahead to safe a ball that in any other case would have fallen out of his attain. He can spring up like a cat to show a double play after laying out for a catch. However none of these jumps are the type I’m referring to. I’m speaking about this:

Within the GIF you simply watched, Rafaela travels greater than 100 ft in lower than 5 seconds to rob Bo Bichette of additional bases. It’s a surprising catch. It could have been a troublesome sufficient play for the Gold Glove winner in proper discipline, not to mention for Rafaela coming over from middle. That ball had an anticipated batting common of .820 off the bat, and simply look how distant Wilyer Abreu is when he realizes all he can do is again off and let his teammate work his magic. You don’t want Statcast to inform you that’s a five-star catch, and it stands out even among the many 9 five-star catches we’ve seen this 12 months. It was certainly one of solely three with a catch likelihood of 5%.

Rafaela’s slide into the outfield wall, the way in which he raised his glove in triumph, and the truth that this occurred on the primary pitch of the sport make this an endlessly rewatchable spotlight. But, what actually makes this catch so spectacular is the sheer quantity of floor he needed to cowl earlier than he might even contemplate reaching out for the ball. It’s not that he crashed into the Wasabi register proper discipline, however that he was anyplace near the signal to start with. In different phrases, it’s all about his soar.

Baseball Savant defines “outfielder soar” because the variety of ft above or under common that an outfielder travels within the correct course within the first three seconds after a pitch is launched, on performs with a catch likelihood of 90% or more durable (two-star or above). It’s a priceless metric as a result of it measures a ability that’s nearly unattainable for followers to evaluate with the attention check alone. Most of us watch most of our baseball on TV, a medium that normally prevents us from seeing the place the outfielders are standing for the time being every pitch is launched. Until you’re watching a well-framed replay of a stunning catch (just like the one above), it’s uncommon that you just’ll see an outfielder’s preliminary response to a ball coming his means. So, outfielder soar is certainly one of my favourite Statcast instruments. If Rafaela frequents Baseball Savant, I’ve a sense it’s certainly one of his favorites too:

To this point in 2025, Rafaela is the league chief in outfielder soar, and it’s not significantly shut. At 6.2 ft above common, his soar is longer than the median peak of a serious league participant. Consider it this fashion: If Rafaela and a league-average outfield jumper had been each operating for a similar ball from the identical place to begin, it might solely take three seconds for Rafaela to achieve a lot floor that Mike Trout might comfortably lie down between the 2 outfielders. What’s extra, Rafaela’s common soar places him 1.4 ft forward of the following finest jumper, Johan Rojas. Greater than half of certified outfielders fall inside 1.4 ft of league common, in both course. Rafaela’s jumps have been at the very least 1.4 ft higher than the these of everybody else. The small-sample-size caveat that we tack on to nearly each article in April actually applies right here, but when we will marvel at what Randy Rodríguez is doing, we will marvel at Rafaela’s accomplishments too. Sustainable or not, nobody lucks into an incredible outfield soar. You’ll be able to both transfer that quick or you’ll be able to’t. And Rafaela can.

Having stated that, Rafaela’s pace is definitely one thing of an enigma. One motive I discover his soar numbers so fascinating is that, whereas he’s quick, I’ve by no means thought-about him a first-rate speedster. His 28.3 ft/sec dash pace ranks within the 84th percentile this season. He has compiled simply 1.8 baserunning runs (BsR) via 201 profession video games. In his prospect days, evaluators disagreed about whether or not his pace was really elite (70 FV) or nearer to plus (60 FV). Right here at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen gave Rafaela a 60 grade in 2023 earlier than upping it to 70 a 12 months later. As these differing grades counsel, measuring pace is extra nuanced than one would possibly assume.

Courting again to his debut season in 2023, Rafaela ranks 72nd in dash pace amongst certified runners (min. 10 aggressive runs), placing him within the 84th percentile. In comparison with his fellow middle fielders, he ranks twenty third, simply barely touchdown him within the high half of qualifiers on the place. Nonetheless, his common time from house to first base ranks within the ninety fifth percentile of baserunners. That’s a pronounced distinction, particularly for a right-handed batter; most gamers whose house to first rankings are considerably higher than their dash pace rankings are lefties who’ve the benefit of their batter’s field being nearer to first base. Over the previous three seasons, solely 4 right-handed hitting outfielders have a house to first time as quick as Rafaela’s: Brandon Lockridge, Dairon Blanco, Byron Buxton, and Myles Straw.

In keeping with dash pace, Rafaela is at the very least half a foot per second slower than any of these 4. He trails even additional behind in “bolts,” which Statcast defines as any run that clocks in above 30 ft/sec. Lockridge and Blanco have bolted in additional than half of their aggressive runs. Buxton and Straw have bolted in about 20% of their aggressive runs. In the meantime, Rafaela has solely bolted twice in his profession. That’s lower than 1% of his aggressive runs. Since 2023, just one participant on the Baseball Savant leaderboard has a better dash pace and a decrease bolt charge: Cubs rookie Matt Shaw, who has solely performed 18 profession video games.

So, Rafaela doesn’t attain the identical most speeds as the fellows we consider as elite runners, however he nonetheless covers floor — on the bases and within the discipline – quicker than most different gamers. Fast reactions and a capability to take care of his pace over a number of seconds, two issues measured by outfielder soar, might assist clarify why. One factor we will say for sure is that it doesn’t have something to do with operating environment friendly routes. Outfielder soar could be cut up into three parts: “response” (ft coated in any course in the course of the first 1.5 seconds after pitch launch), “burst” (ft coated in any course in the course of the subsequent 1.5 seconds), and “route” (ft coated in opposition to essentially the most direct path to the ball within the first three seconds). Rafaela leads the league in every of the primary two parts. His routes, nonetheless, put him among the many backside 10 certified outfielders. That’s clearly not an issue. In reality, as Davy Andrews discovered a number of years in the past, a excessive route rating is negatively correlated with OAA. Most of the time, operating as shortly as doable as quickly as doable is more practical than operating within the actual proper course. Rafaela is the proof within the pudding.

To that finish, if Rafaela has any kind of pace drawback, it may be getting the place he’s going too shortly. On this linked play from final season, he was about an inch or two previous the place he wanted to be when the ball reached his glove. It got here bouncing off his wrist, and inertia carried him into the wall. Right here’s an instance from this 12 months of one other play that despatched him crashing into the fence. He didn’t give himself time to decelerate, and a ball he might have performed off the wall become an embarrassing mistake:

Now comes the half you’ve been dreading: I’ve no alternative however to inform you that Rafaela’s early-season soar numbers are unsustainable. In 2024, he was among the best jumpers within the majors, very similar to he’s proper now. He ranked fourth amongst certified fielders. His common soar final 12 months? 3.3 ft above common. That’s solely barely greater than half of his present soar rating. Outfield soar dates again to 2016, and in that point, no participant (min. 10 alternatives) has ever completed a season with an outfield soar above six ft. No certified outfielder (extra two-star alternatives than staff video games divided by 5) has ever completed with an outfield soar above 5 ft:

With all due respect to Rafaela, it’s exhausting to imagine he’ll proceed to be this a lot higher than some other main league outfielder from the previous 10 seasons. That stated, his common soar might drop by greater than a foot, and he’d nonetheless have an opportunity to complete with the very best outfield soar numbers we’ve ever seen from a certified participant. Since he emerged as a high prospect in the course of the 2022 marketing campaign, evaluators have had nothing however the highest of reward for Rafaela’s middle discipline protection. The staff at Baseball America particularly took observe of his jumps when rating him on the publication’s high 100 record in 2023, writing: “Rafaela’s nice jumps positioned him as among the best defensive middle fielders in professional ball.”

Rafaela lived as much as these excessive expectations in his temporary cup of espresso that 12 months. His common soar in 2023 was a ridiculous 6.9 ft above common in seven alternatives. That’s compelling proof that what we’ve seen this 12 months, in one other seven alternatives, isn’t only a fluke. As for his decrease soar rating in 2024, he has a reasonably good excuse. Rafaela solely began taking part in the outfield in 2021, and 2022 was the primary 12 months he performed greater than half of his video games in middle discipline. Whereas he performed a bit extra infield on the huge league degree in 2023, he nonetheless spent nearly all of his time within the outfield that season. In 2024, nonetheless, Rafaela performed extra innings at shortstop than at some other place, whereas additionally seeing time at second and third base.

Alex Cora acknowledged that what the Pink Sox had been asking of Rafaela was holding him again from reaching his full defensive potential. “We all know how good he could be at brief. We all know how nice he’s in middle discipline,” the skipper advised reporters. “However the transferring round, it takes away from good jumps and being engaged.” Given the context, it appears Cora was speaking extra about Rafaela’s instincts struggling at shortstop than in middle. Nonetheless, the purpose stays: Enjoying a number of positions can take a toll on a participant. Now that Rafaela is completely taking part in middle discipline for the primary time in his profession, it’s not unreasonable to assume he might get higher jumps than ever.

By 20 video games this season, Rafaela has already compiled 4 DRS, 3 OAA, and three FRV. He has been nothing in need of pleasant to look at within the outfield. Sadly, the identical can’t be stated of his efficiency on the plate. His self-discipline has been higher – his walks are up and his strikeouts are down – however he’s sending too many balls into the bottom. Over 74 journeys to the plate, he’s hit just one double, one triple, and one house run. A Fortieth-percentile xwOBA suggests he might be extra productive going ahead, nevertheless it’s exhausting to look previous his 67 wRC+. It is going to be even more durable for the Pink Sox to look previous once they have higher choices accessible. If/when Masataka Yoshida returns from the IL and/or Roman Anthony forces his strategy to the present, Rafaela’s glove may not be adequate to earn him common taking part in time if his bat doesn’t come round. So, ensure to understand his unbelievable jumps when you can, and hopefully, he’ll begin hitting sufficient that we get to take pleasure in his protection for a complete lot longer.