After the trades of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander final summer season, Kodai Senga assumed the function of the Mets’ employees ace, and figured to be the staff’s Opening Day starter this yr. Already, nevertheless, the Mets are within the place of getting to regulate. A day after Senga missed a staff exercise as a consequence of what was initially described as arm fatigue, president of baseball operations David Stearns revealed that the 31-year-old righty will begin the yr on the injured listing with a shoulder pressure. For as tantalizing as the potential for a free agent addition could also be, the staff plans to remain in-house to soak up his absence.
In Wednesday’s media session, supervisor Carlos Mendoza mentioned that after Tuesday’s aspect session, Senga advised Mets trainers he was experiencing arm fatigue, which is hardly unusual presently of yr as pitchers construct up their workloads. This wasn’t the primary time this spring that he had reported fatigue, nevertheless, and so the Mets despatched him for an MRI, which revealed a average posterior capsule pressure. He’ll be shut down from throwing, however this isn’t an damage that means he’ll want surgical procedure. Even so, Stearns wouldn’t supply a timeline for his return. “What I can say at this level, comfortably, is we don’t count on Opening Day,” he advised reporters on Thursday. “However I do count on him to make a bunch of begins for us this yr… Hopefully we caught it early sufficient that that is only a speedbump.”
Whereas not offered as a worst-case situation, that’s nonetheless fairly obscure so far as what Senga may contribute in 2024, and when. If there’s excellent news, it’s that this isn’t the kind of shoulder damage that Kyle Wright and Brandon Woodruff suffered. As Below the Knife’s Will Carroll identified, that they had anterior capsule tears that required surgical restore, costing them most of 2023 and certain all of this season. Nonetheless, nevertheless lengthy Senga is out, the Mets may have a tricky time changing him.
After 11 seasons with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League, Senga joined the Mets on a five-year, $75 million contract. Given his historical past of pitching solely each sixth or seventh day in Japan, the staff did its finest to offer him a bit of additional relaxation between begins; solely 3 times did he take a activate 4 days of relaxation, with 17 begins approaching 5 days, six on six days, and three on greater than that. All advised, he acquitted himself in spectacular vogue, posting a 2.98 ERA and three.63 FIP in 166.1 innings, making the NL All-Star staff, and inserting second within the Rookie of the Yr voting behind Corbin Carroll and seventh within the Cy Younger voting. That ERA ranked second within the league behind Blake Snell’s 2.20, whereas his 202 strikeouts positioned eighth and his 3.4 WAR tied for ninth. Amongst Japanese-born pitchers who’ve come stateside, solely Hideo Nomo and Yu Darvish had stronger debuts when it comes to WAR or strikeouts, with the previous totaling 5.2 WAR and 236 Okay’s for the Dodgers in 1995, whereas the latter had 4.7 WAR and 221 Okay’s for the Rangers in 2012.
When Senga joined the Mets, he figured to be the third starter on a contending staff behind a pair of three-time Cy Younger award winners, however that modified after they traded Scherzer and Verlander. With the Mets’ resolution to rein of their payroll — nonetheless the majors’ largest when it comes to annual salaries ($315 million) and Aggressive Stability Tax ($328 million) — this winter, he now fronts a rotation with a a lot decrease ceiling on a staff projected to complete round .500. Presently ranked twenty third in projected beginning pitcher WAR by our Depth Charts, this group is stuffed with pitchers aspiring to remain wholesome, accessible, and productive for a full season.
Probably the most skilled of the group is 35-year-old lefty José Quintana, who after making a minimum of 31 begins yearly from 2013–19 has executed so simply as soon as up to now three seasons. Final yr, his first of a two-year, $26 million take care of the Mets, he was restricted to 13 begins by a stress fracture in his rib, one which was revealed to be attributable to a benign lesion that required bone graft surgical procedure. He was stable upon his return simply after the All-Star break, posting a 3.57 ERA and three.52 FIP in 75.2 innings. He did an awesome job of avoiding onerous contact, and his sinker was notably efficient, holding hitters to a .198 AVG and .253 SLG in 105 PA. Even when he’s only a five-and-fly man — he’s averaged lower than 5 1/3 innings in every of his final three full seasons (2018, ’19, ’22) — he ought to present some welcome stability for the rotation whereas fulfilling the function of the sage veteran.
Probably the most completed of the group is 30-year-old righty Luis Severino, a two-time All-Star who has completed as excessive as third within the Cy Younger voting. However as a consequence of shoulder irritation (2019), Tommy John surgical procedure (2020-21), and a pair of lat strains (2022 and ’23), he’s managed simply 40 begins and 209.1 innings over the previous 5 seasons. When he was accessible final yr between a season-opening lat pressure and a season-ending indirect pressure, he typically struggled, posting a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP in 89.1 innings whereas serving up a ugly 2.32 house runs per 9. His four-seam fastball nonetheless averaged 96.5 mph, however hitters slugged .680 towards it, an issue that could be attributable to his tipping pitches with males on base. Even so, he did have the occasional begin that supplied hope he may discover his approach out of such a multitude. The Mets signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal on the idea that it’s doable, notably if he can keep away from tipping.
Additionally tantalizing when it comes to velocity is 32-year-old lefty Sean Manaea, who break up final season between the bullpen (27 appearances, a lot of them following an opener) and rotation (10 begins) for the Giants, placing up a 4.40 ERA and three.90 FIP in 117.2 innings. After spending time at Driveline after the 2022 season, Manaea elevated his common four-seam velocity from 91.3 mph to 93.6, and was capable of preserve that acquire even throughout his longer outings. He additionally added a sweeper that held hitters to a .158 AVG and .184 SLG in 42 PA whereas producing a 36.3% whiff charge. This yr, after extra work at Driveline, he’s planning to introduce an improved changeup. His present one held hitters to a .208 AV and .333 SLG in 2023, however generated simply an 18.7% whiff charge; with an adjusted grip, he’s hoping to get batters to chase extra. He’s additionally including a brand new cutter to function a weapon towards righties, who hit for a .333 wOBA towards him in 2023, in comparison with the .256 wOBA he allowed to lefties.
The opposite newcomer from exterior the group is 31-year-old righty Adrian Houser. Acquired from the Brewers on December 20 together with outfielder Tyrone Taylor in a commerce that despatched righty prospect Coleman Crow to Milwaukee, Houser posted a 4.12 ERA and three.99 FIP in 111.1 innings final yr, making 21 begins and two reduction appearances. He didn’t make his season debut till Might 7 as a consequence of a groin pressure, and missed a few weeks in late August and early September with elbow irritation. Houser throws a heavy sinker, generates plenty of groundballs, and does an honest job of retaining the ball within the park, although final yr’s 1.05 HR/9 was his highest full-season charge since 2019.
Stearns mentioned the battle to interchange Senga options Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and José Butto, all of whom have a minimum of one minor league choice remaining. By now the 28-year-old Megill is a well-recognized face, as he’s pitched for the Mets on and off since debuting in June 2021. In actual fact, he was pressed into responsibility because the Opening Day starter in 2022, and three weeks later, he threw the primary 5 innings of a mixed no-hitter. His 25 begins final yr ranked second on the staff, however sadly, he was erratic to the purpose of getting despatched all the way down to Triple-A Syracuse for about six weeks. He completed with a 4.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP as he struggled to throw strikes and keep away from onerous contact. He walked 10.2% of hitters whereas placing out simply 18.5%; between that and the 9% of his batted balls that had been barreled, he ended up with a 5.89 xERA. He can deliver it with a mid-90s fastball and nice extension due to his 6-foot-7 body, however sustaining his velocity has been a problem. In his closing outing of final season, he broke out a split-fingered fastball that he discovered from Senga, and he spent the winter working to hone it; he calls it “The American Spork,” referencing Senga’s “Ghost Fork.” “Received loads of reps with it and it’s working effectively,” he advised reporters this week. “It’s positively a part of the arsenal now.”
Lucchesi, a 30-year-old lefty, has spent components of 5 seasons within the majors. He made 9 begins totaling 46.2 innings for the Mets final yr, delivering a tidy 2.89 ERA that was hardly supported by his peripherals; he struck out simply 16.4% of hitters and served up a ten.4% barrel charge en path to a 4.22 FIP and a 5.48 xERA. Butto, a 25-year-old righty, is the least skilled of the three, nonetheless a rookie really. He throws a 93-95 mph fastball with a plus changeup and an excellent slider; the secondaries each miss bats at an above-average charge. Used as a spot starter final yr, he made seven begins and two reduction appearances totaling 42 innings, delivering a 3.64 ERA and 4.02 FIP, strolling a gaudy 12.8% of hitters (towards a modest 21.2% strikeout charge) however holding them to a 2.5% barrel charge and 0.64 HR/9.
Unlikely to determine into the Mets’ season-opening plans however maybe in play later this yr are righties Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, and Dominic Hamel, all of whom Eric Longenhagen lined within the staff’s Imminent Large Leaguers piece earlier this month (together with Butto). None of these three are on the 40-man roster; Scott and Hamel are coming into their age-25 seasons however haven’t pitched above Double-A, whereas Vasil is coming into his age-24 season and took 16 turns at Syracuse final yr, in addition to 10 at Binghamton. By way of Longenhagen, Scott grades out as the perfect of them, a 50 FV prospect who initiatives as a mid-rotation starter due to his mixture of a 94-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, and a splitter. He’s 6-foot-4, weighs 215 kilos and will get nice extension. Hamel, a forty five FV prospect, throws a 92-96 mph fastball and two good breaking balls however has iffy command. Vasil, a forty five FV prospect, initiatives as “a rock regular no. 4/5 starter on an excellent staff,” per Longehagen; he throws a 92-95 mph fastball, a plus slider, a mean curveball and a changeup.
Whereas the free agent market nonetheless has no scarcity of pitchers who may assist the Mets, from costly choices, similar to Snell and Jordan Montgomery, to extra reasonably priced ones, similar to righties Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, and Zack Greinke, the staff’s tax scenario makes a signing extremely unlikely. Provided that they’re already above the fourth-tier threshold of $297 million, the Mets pays a 110% tax on the salaries of anyone they add. “We’re asking folks to step up,” mentioned Stearns, talking of his inner choices.
If sufficient of these pitchers do step up, the Mets may have an fascinating summer season, as a result of even with Senga down, they at present undertaking to have a 30.6% likelihood of creating the playoffs. However these odds nonetheless depend on him making a considerable contribution to the staff, and proper now, that’s something however assured.