The Terry Francona period in Cincinnati will not be off to a rousing begin, significantly on offense. Final week, the Reds turned the primary workforce to lose three straight 1-0 video games in 65 years, and thus far, they’ve misplaced all three collection they’ve performed, in opposition to the Giants, Rangers, and Brewers. Regardless of the promise of an excellent rotation headlined by Hunter Greene, and a few eye-opening adjustments by Elly De La Cruz, it appears prefer it might be an extended summer time in Cincinnati.
The Reds are 3-7 and fourth within the NL Central coming into Monday. They’ve truly outscored opponents 39-38, however two of their three wins had been lopsided ones, a 14-3 blowout of the Rangers on March 31 after which an 11-7 win on Saturday over the Brewers. Between these video games, they misplaced 4 straight, together with a pair of 1-0 video games in opposition to the Rangers on April 1 and a couple of, after which a 3rd 1-0 loss to the Brewers on April 3. They really went scoreless for 35 consecutive innings, the longest stretch {that a} Reds workforce has gone with no run since 1946. The streak started with the eighth inning on March 31 (a house sport, so that they didn’t bat within the ninth), ran by these three 1-0 losses, and prolonged till the eighth on April 4, once they had been down 3-0; they scored a pair of unearned runs however fell quick, 3-2.
Amid that streak, the Reds made some doubtful historical past, turning into simply the sixth AL or NL workforce to lose three straight 1-0 video games since 1901:
Groups That Misplaced Three Straight 1-0 Video games
| Crew | Opponent | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Superbas | Braves (2), Giants | September 7–8, 1908 |
| St. Louis Browns | White Sox | April 25–27, 1909 |
| Washington Nationals | White Sox (2), Cleveland | July 31–August 3, 1909 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Cardinals | August 31–September 1, 1917 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Giants (2) ,Reds | Might 11–13 1960 |
| Cincinnati Reds | Rangers (2), Brewers | April 1–3, 2025 |
4 of these groups hail from the Deadball Period, together with a pair with unfamiliar names: the 1909 Brooklyn Superbas (now the Dodgers) and the 1909 Washington Nationals (later the Senators, now the Twins). Solely two groups have achieved it since World Battle II, with the Reds the primary for the reason that begin of the Enlargement Period. Yikes.
As a workforce, the Reds are hitting .210/.269/.352 for a 68 wRC+, the fourth-lowest mark within the majors. Exterior of their two offensive outbursts, which account for almost two-thirds of their runs, they’ve scored simply 1.75 runs per sport. The uneven performances have wasted some good pitching, because the workers ranks ninth within the majors in ERA (3.41) and eleventh in FIP (3.82). The rotation is eighth in ERA (3.18) and fifth in FIP (3.35). The bullpen, which has been with out nearer Alexis Díaz as a consequence of a left hamstring pressure, has been a dicier proposition (3.86 ERA, 4.70 FIP), however in the mean time that drawback seems secondary to the wheezing offense.
To be clear, it’s not Francona who assembled this roster, it’s president of baseball operations Nick Krall, who’s hamstrung by possession’s payroll limitations; whereas the group’s present $116 million payroll is $29 million greater than it was final season, the Reds have solely climbed from twenty sixth to twenty fourth in spending. Francona got here out of retirement after a yr to take over for David Bell, who since his hiring earlier than the 2019 season had guided the workforce to a few finishes above .500 and one playoff look (within the pandemic-shortened 2020 season) however couldn’t get it over the hump, not that he all the time had the personnel to take action, both.
Final yr’s Reds went 77-85 whereas scoring 4.31 runs per sport, 0.2 per sport beneath the league common. Even that in all probability overstated their offensive prowess, as they hit simply .231/.305/.388 for an 87 wRC+, the majors’ fifth-lowest mark. They started the 2024 season with a logjam within the infield, however outdoors of De La Cruz (.259/.339/.471, 118 wRC+) and Jonathan India (.248/.357/.392, 108 wRC+), everyone concerned had a disappointing season. Jeimer Candelario, their high free agent signing, hit .225/.279/.429 (87 wRC+) within the first season of a three-year, $45 million deal, the group’s largest contract in 4 years. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who was imagined to deal with the majority of first base duties after Joey Votto’s departure, hit .190/.220/.293 (33 wRC+) and performed simply 29 video games as a consequence of an ulnar styloid fracture. Spencer Steer, who did a good bit of filling in at first base when he wasn’t enjoying left discipline, hit simply .225/.319/.402; his 96 wRC+ represented a 21-point drop from 2023. Noelvi Marte missed 80 video games as a consequence of a PED suspension and hit .210/.248/.301 (46 wRC+). Santiago Espinal, acquired in a commerce with the Blue Jays final March 20 to assist cowl for the lack of Marte, hit .246/.295/.356 (75 wRC+). Deadline pickup Ty France managed only a .251/.292/.391 (82 wRC+) displaying. Matt McLain, who hit .290/.357/.507 (127 wRC+) in 89 video games as a rookie in 2023, missed the complete season as a consequence of surgical procedure to restore a torn left labrum.
It was typically a catastrophe, with catcher Tyler Stephenson the one different common apart from De La Cruz and India with a wRC+ of 100 or higher. I haven’t even talked about the outfield, the place everybody who made greater than 48 plate appearances hit for a 94 wRC+ or decrease, and the 85 wRC+ the workforce acquired from its outfield as an entire tying for the majors’ fifth-worst mark. Kroll’s first huge transfer of the offseason was to commerce the defensively challenged India to the Royals together with Joey Wiemer in change for Brady Singer. As Kansas Metropolis’s fourth-best starter, Singer threw extra innings (179 2/3) than any Reds starter and outpitched all of them besides Greene and swingman Nick Martinez. In December, Kroll traded reliever Fernando Cruz and backup catcher Alex Jackson to the Yankees for Jose Trevino, who misplaced his beginning job throughout an injury-wracked season and went simply 4-for-41 within the second half. In January, Kroll traded third-round draft decide Mike Sirota to the Dodgers for Gavin Lux, who completed final season proper at league common (100 wRC+) because of a robust second half that included more durable swings and a extra aggressive method. The one place participant the Reds signed to a serious league free agent deal was outfielder Austin Hays, who hit was non-tendered after a disappointing season. Final yr, he hit for a 98 wRC+ for the Orioles and Phillies and missed time with calf and hamstring strains in addition to a kidney an infection.
Even with the return of McLain and anticipated rebounds from a couple of of the above gamers, that hardly appeared like sufficient to provide the Reds offense the jolt it wanted. One look at our Positional Energy Rankings abstract, displaying the ordinal ranks of every workforce at every place, underscored this workforce’s flaws: At six completely different lineup spots, the Reds ranked twenty fourth or decrease based mostly upon our projections and enjoying time estimates, particularly first base, third base, all three outfield spots, and designated hitter. They ranked sixth at their two finest positions, shortstop (powered by De La Cruz) and second (McLain), and eleventh at catcher (Stephenson and Trevino). As for the pitching, the starters — Greene, Singer, Martinez, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo — ranked tenth, whereas the bullpen was a disappointing twenty sixth.
Ten video games is simply 10 video games, however solely two Reds with no less than 10 plate appearances have a 100 wRC+ or higher, particularly Trevino (.294/.368/.529, 144 wRC+ in 19 PA) and McLain (.214/.290/.571, 129 wRC+ in 31 PA). In the meantime, six gamers have a wRC+ of 65 or decrease throughout no less than 20 PA: Lux (65), Encarnacion-Strand and Espinal (each 60), Candelario (26), Steer (-5), and proper fielder Jake Fraley (-19). Lux and Encarnacion-Strand are the one ones amongst that group who’re no less than making good contact. Trevino has achieved the majority of the catching with Stephenson sidelined since mid-March by an indirect pressure; the latter is scheduled to get an MRI on Monday to verify the progress of his therapeutic, and will begin a rehab project quickly. McLain was scratched from the lineup on Friday as a consequence of left hamstring tightness, and though he pinch-hit that evening, he didn’t play both Saturday or Sunday. He could return as quickly as Monday in opposition to the Giants in San Francisco. Additionally lacking from the lineup is Hays, who strained his left calf throughout spring coaching and isn’t anticipated again earlier than April 11, after the Reds return from their highway journey. The expectation is that he’ll get the majority of the work in left discipline, in some kind of share with the left-handed Lux.
As for De La Cruz, Cincinnati’s most fascinating place participant, his .250/.286/.450 (97 wRC+) line is underselling him. Even with a silver sombrero on Sunday, his 26.2% strikeout fee is about 5 factors decrease than what it was final yr, and his contact stats, holy Ell. His 97.0 mph common exit velocity, 20.7% barrel fee, and 65.5% hard-hit fee all rank within the 92nd percentile or higher; he’s acquired a .651 xSLG however not a lot to indicate for it but.
Beneath the hood, Statcast’s new batting stance metrics present some developments that make De La Cruz worthy of a more in-depth look. He’s moved again off the plate and opened up his stance, not solely from the left facet — as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello identified final week — but additionally from the precise:
Under are a few screenshots. Even with the Nice American Ballpark’s digital camera angle apparently having modified (extra on-center, hooray!), you may get the concept. Final yr is on the left, and this season is on the precise.
The adjustments look like working, significantly in shoring up De La Cruz’s high quality of contact when he’s batting right-handed:
Elly De La Cruz Bat Monitoring
| Season | Cut up | Avg Bat Pace | Quick Swing% | Size | Squared-Up Swing% | Blast Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Left | 77.1 mph | 68.9% | 7.5 ft | 19.4% | 13.7% |
| 2024 | Left | 76.1 mph | 62.9% | 7.3 ft | 23.1% | 15.1% |
| 2025 | Left | 76.0 mph | 65.8% | 7.1 ft | 36.8% | 26.3% |
| 2023 | Proper | 75.4 mph | 54.2% | 7.5 ft | 14.5% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | Proper | 73.1 mph | 34.5% | 7.3 ft | 20.1% | 9.3% |
| 2025 | Proper | 76.5 mph | 70.6% | 7.1 ft | 47.1% | 29.4% |
| 2023 | Complete | 76.7 mph | 64.9% | 7.5 ft | 18.1% | 11.9% |
| 2024 | Complete | 75.2 mph | 53.9% | 7.3 ft | 22.1% | 13.2% |
| 2025 | Complete | 76.1 mph | 67.3% | 7.1 ft | 43.8% | 27.3% |
De La Cruz is swinging more durable than ever from the precise facet, attending to his quick swing with greater than double final yr’s frequency, together with his squared-up fee greater than doubling and his blast fee almost tripling; as you may see, he’s improved these charges from the left facet as properly. He’s only a profession .206/.274/.312 with a 58 wRC+ in opposition to lefties thus far, and 2-for-15 this yr, however his common exit velo in opposition to them has improved from 87.1 mph to 98.2 mph, his launch angle from three levels to 17 levels, and his barrel fee from 3.1% to 10%; his xSLG in that break up has greater than doubled, from .246 to .546. We’re solely speaking about 10 batted ball occasions, nowhere close to sufficient to think about these numbers secure, however in lower than two weeks of labor, he’s already registered seven hard-hit balls from that facet, in comparison with 43 all of final season. He simply doesn’t have a lot to indicate for it but.
These contact numbers at present qualify as small pattern theater stuff, however the truth that they’re rooted in underlying adjustments makes them value maintaining a tally of, not that De La Cruz is ever going to slide far beneath anybody’s radar. However even when De La Cruz’s high quality of contact holds, and if — when — the hits begin falling in for him, the remainder of the Reds should be an entire lot higher on the plate for this workforce to look respectable. Then once more, issues may hardly get a lot worse for Cincinnati’s offense. Higher well being ought to assist, and never solely close to hitters Stephenson, McLain, and Hays; Abbott is making his approach again from a rotator cuff pressure, whereas Díaz, who can be engaged on some mechanical changes that the workforce hopes will enhance his management, is recovering from his hamstring pressure. For as dangerous because the Reds have been, they’re nonetheless simply three video games out of first place in what ought to be a winnable division.
