Giancarlo Stanton Tries to Change Issues Up After a Dreadful 2023

Following a career-worst season and a few stinging public criticism from Yankees normal supervisor Brian Cashman, Giancarlo Stanton is making some adjustments. Earlier this week, the oft-injured 34-year-old slugger reported to spring coaching wanting considerably leaner than prior to now, and on Wednesday supplied the general public with the primary glimpse of his reworked swing. Certain, this all matches into the realm of spring coaching clichés, and batting follow cuts received’t inform us whether or not the adjustments can reverse his decline or enhance his possibilities of staying wholesome, however a rebound would definitely be welcome because the Yankees try to get better from their worst document in 31 years.

Amid a season during which so many key Yankees wound up sidelined by accidents for vital spells, Stanton performed in simply 101 video games, his lowest full-season complete since 2019, when he was restricted to 19 video games by left biceps and proper knee accidents. This time round, he missed 46 days on account of a left hamstring pressure, the newest in a litany of decrease physique accidents he’s incurred because the begin of 2019:

That’s 301 days on the injured checklist, not together with his lacking three video games within the 2019 ALCS towards the Astros. In the meantime, Stanton has performed 391 common season video games, which prorates to a mean of 89 over a 162-game season.

It was with that irritating collection of absences in thoughts that Cashman vented throughout a media session on the GM conferences in Arizona final November, “I’m not going to inform you he’s gonna play each recreation subsequent 12 months as a result of he’s not. He’s gonna wind up getting harm once more, extra doubtless than not, as a result of it appears to be a part of his recreation.” To be honest, Cashman instantly added, “However I do know that when he’s proper and wholesome – aside from this previous 12 months – the man’s an ideal hitter and has been for a very long time.”

Stanton shunned public remark on the time, letting agent Joel Wolfe commerce volleys with the GM, who went into harm management mode. “I worth Giancarlo Stanton as a participant,” he advised reporters. “Indisputably, he’s one of many massive drivers once we do win. He’s one of many few gamers you convey to New York that hasn’t backed down, that has dealt with himself in an expert method by means of thick and skinny.” The GM moreover spoke with each participant and agent to clear the air, and since then, each Cashman and Stanton have saved the substance of their dialogue non-public. “He is aware of my response to that,” stated the latter on the Yankees’ spring coaching advanced on Monday.

Till 2023, Stanton’s absences have been mitigated at the least considerably by his productiveness. He hit .248/.338/.493 for a 130 wRC+ from 2019–22, together with .273/.354/.516 (138 wRC+) in his 139-game ’21 marketing campaign, his healthiest one in every of that stretch. He made the AL All-Star workforce in 2022, however his ugly ultimate line (.211/.297/.462, 116 wRC+) hid a drastic cut up: He hit .285/.339/.523 (142 wRC+) by means of Might 24, his final day earlier than touchdown on the IL on account of proper ankle irritation, however simply .166/.272/.425 thereafter, and to get to an excellent 100 wRC+ for that stretch required hitting house runs in his ultimate three video games. That sorry batting line seems to be so much like final 12 months’s one (.191/.275/.420), although with rising scoring ranges, the latter was good for simply an 89 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR. Since that ankle-related IL stint, he owns a 93 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR in 699 PA. It ain’t nice.

As ever, Stanton struck out so much, however that wasn’t his major downside. By way of general strikeout fee, his 29.9% was down 0.4 factors from 2022, and useless even with ’18. His 34.1% whiff fee was proper at his Statcast-era common, down 2.4 factors from 2022, and down 0.3 factors from ’18. His 13.7% swinging strike fee and his 29.4% chase fee have been each equally under 2018, ’22, and his profession marks.

Likewise, Stanton continued to place a cost within the ball when he related, if not fairly as onerous as lately (I’ve omitted 2019 and ’20 on account of their small samples):

Not all contact is created equal, in fact. Stanton pulled the ball 41.1% of the time in 2023, up from 36.5% in ’22 and his highest full-season fee since ’17, when he was nonetheless a Marlin. Basically, pulled fly balls are usually the best, whereas reverse area groundballs are usually extra productive than pulled ones even after the banning of infield shifts. What we see with Stanton is that his outcomes on pulled groundballs — which was fairly good, as a result of he hit them so onerous — have deteriorated drastically, as have his outcomes on pulled fly balls:

As a result of xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA don’t account for spray angle, I’ve as a substitute used the annual league-wide averages for right-handed hitters the place I’d normally put these figures. You possibly can see that Stanton was approach under these averages final 12 months regardless of exit velos about 5 mph above the league-wide averages. His launch angles have been notably excessive, provided that righties averaged -12.0 levels on pulled grounders and 34.7 levels on pulled fly balls. His 37.2-degree common on the latter was so excessive as to be unproductive; he was over 500 factors in need of the league common slugging share on fly balls. I couldn’t match it into the desk, however the estimated common distance on his pulled fly balls in 2023 was 344 toes, a full 20 toes shorter than his common from the 12 months earlier than; he averaged 356 toes in 2018 and 348 in ’21.

A number of the lacking manufacturing in all probability owes to Stanton’s pace, or lack of it. His dash pace fell from the 69th percentile in 2018 to the thirteenth percentile by ’21, and was right down to the fourth percentile final 12 months. It’s doubtless that a few of that is intentional — his not operating onerous at instances is a option to stop accidents or to keep away from turning minor aches into main issues — nevertheless it’s little question costing him hits right here and there, contributing to his shortfalls in batting common relative to xBA. In reality, a fast take a look at his participant web page exhibits that his fee of infield hits per groundball (IFH% on his participant web page) has fallen from 12.8% in 2018 to 4.4% in ’21, 4.1% in ’22 and a pair of.8% final 12 months.

In the meantime, Stanton received beneath much more balls than standard, no matter course, resulting in a better share of innocent popups and flies. His 26.6% Beneath fee was his highest of the Statcast period, properly above his 19.7% in 2022; he hadn’t been above 22% since ’16. He went 6-for-66 on these balls in 2023, which was truly higher than his 2-for-52 in ’22 or his 4-for-70 in ’21; the issue was that these balls occupied a bigger share of his contact.

Although he nonetheless slugged .533 towards four-seamers and .516 towards sinkers, Stanton was a lot much less productive towards fastballs of each varieties than prior to now. He struggled with sliders, as he normally does, and was totally helpless towards curveballs, which was comparatively new. In 2018, he hit .233 and slugged .517 towards curves, and even in ’22, he was at .222 AVG/.389 SLG; final 12 months, he plummeted to .115 AVG/.269 SLG. His warmth maps present that he has critical holes in his swing. Right here’s a comparability between his warmth maps for barreled balls towards fastballs (the highest pair) and breaking balls (the underside pair); 2018 is on the left and ’23 on the best. Observe how a lot smaller the protection of the latter is — he didn’t barrel a single ball towards pitches outdoors these areas — and the way there may be a lot much less pink.

Right here’s a take a look at the development of Stanton’s general xwOBAs by Gameday zone:

Take a look at the sequence within the decrease proper nook of the strike zone. Inside this timespan, Stanton’s xwOBAs in that cell have dropped from .287 to .252 to .207 to .129 (see right here to zoom in on the numbers). In the meantime, all the pink has disappeared from the higher and outer thirds of the zone. As Alex Chamberlain wrote final week, that higher third is especially essential with regards to producing pulled fly balls, so it doesn’t assist that Stanton’s whiff fee in that a part of the zone has climbed from 23.1% in 2018 to a decimal or two on both aspect of 30% within the final two seasons — greater than double the league-wide fee.

Notably in gentle of the information, I’m hardly the primary to marvel if Stanton’s collection of decrease physique accidents has compromised his flexibility, contributing to these open holes in his swing. Certainly, in September at Pinstripe Alley, Malachi Hayes constructed on FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera’s visible breakdown of some mechanical points Stanton was having, mentioning the slugger’s elevated problem with low breaking balls and the way in which pitchers have been going even decrease towards him:

Sliders and changeups, making up a couple of third of the pitches he sees, are crossing the plate rather less than two inches decrease and just a little bit farther away than they’ve over the previous couple of years. It feels like a small change, however the distinction exhibits up in warmth maps — particularly towards right-handed pitchers — and it appears more and more clear that he simply can’t go down and get these pitches like he used to.

Stanton, whose work ethic and conditioning have by no means been doubtful throughout the group, advised reporters he spent the offseason specializing in mobility and on altering his swing. Improved mobility ought to assist him discover time in an outfield combine that may embody Alex Verdugo in left, Aaron Decide in heart, and Juan Soto in proper. Mild-hitting Trent Grisham may help in heart, and whereas that would imply Decide spending time in left area, as supervisor Aaron Boone advised final month, it’s in all probability going to imply plenty of DH responsibility for No. 99 as properly, given his personal harm historical past. The state of affairs will solely grow to be extra crowded as soon as Jasson Domínguez returns from the Tommy John surgical procedure he had in September. Except Stanton can play the outfield — extra doubtless proper area, with Soto slotting in left — he stands to lose taking part in time. He performed simply 33 video games within the outfield final 12 months, and 38 the 12 months earlier than, and the outcomes have been fairly poor (a mixed -7 DRS, -4 RAA, and -0.8 UZR in 567 innings for the 2 seasons). Extra mobility definitely couldn’t harm.

As for the promised adjustments, right here’s a glimpse of the 6-foot-4 Stanton (listed at 245 kilos however wanting lighter) showing form of skinny subsequent to the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Decide, by way of Newsday’s Erik Boland:

Decide and Stanton after taking part in catch pic.twitter.com/kxZUjVx2sE

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) February 19, 2024

Right here’s a side-by-side comparability of Stanton’s stance, from final season to this 12 months, courtesy of The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner:

Facet by aspect look of Giancarlo Stanton’s stance from movies I shot. Left is immediately. Proper is final 12 months.

We are going to see what it seems to be like with the sport angle digicam.

Stanton stated he was making some adjustments to his swing https://t.co/i2MsLICKPA pic.twitter.com/cs3Tmmp9m8

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 21, 2024

And right here he’s taking a BP reduce:

Right here’s Giancarlo Stanton pic.twitter.com/e9QOSWCgGy

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 20, 2024

Stanton is extra upright, along with his again leg nearer to the plate than earlier than, however at this degree of depth and the restricted variety of angles, it’s robust to say greater than that. Provided that it’s February, his adjustments — and people of everyone else who reported to camp speaking about swing tweaks, new pitches, and improved coaching regimens — needs to be thought of a piece in progress. With the addition of Soto, there’s a bit much less stress on Stanton to be one of many lineup’s major producers, however the Yankees can’t justify taking part in him if he remans under substitute degree. We’ll see quickly sufficient whether or not he can return to being near the harmful hitter he was.