What Would a Vladito Contract Look Like?

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports activities

In a usually bleak 2024 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, one of many few brilliant spots in that Kafkaesque wasteland was the return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a drive to be reckoned with within the lineup. Guerrero adopted up his MVP-caliber efficiency in 2021 with a solid-but-underwhelming 2022 season and a below-average 2023, and there have been actual questions on his worth as a participant as he neared his anticipated free company after the 2025 marketing campaign. His .323/.396/.544, 165 wRC+, 5.5 WAR line final 12 months was a dramatic demonstration that his 2021 season was much more than a stone-cold fluke. Free company beckons, and the Blue Jays are all the way down to the final 12 months of his providers earlier than he reaches the open market. Guerrero set the deadline to work out an extension with Toronto for February 17, and that date has come and gone with out an settlement.

My colleague, and notable non-pitcher, Mike Baumann wrote concerning the dangers and rewards of signing Guerrero to a long-term deal from the views of each events, so that you must learn that for additional exposition on the subject. We’re hear to place the worry into numbers, the numbers into {dollars}, and the {dollars} again into worry!

The query of a Guerrero contract is a difficult one, as there are components that each strongly urge and forcefully condemn the thought of giving him a monster deal. And except he has a horrible 2025 season, a monster deal is what he’ll get; he already turned down a $340 million supply in December that he characterised as “not even shut” to what he’s looking for. As long as he and his illustration don’t negotiate like Homer Simpson, we will presume that his desired quantity is considerably larger than that!

Typically talking, this isn’t a good time to be a right-right first baseman in free company. When Pete Alonso hit free company, the ZiPS projections prompt solely a three-year, $66 million deal for him, or $77 million unfold out over 4 years in a impartial park. However I used to be really assured that his pedigree was sufficient that a minimum of one crew would give him a contract that might handily beat these numbers. Seems, that was not the case. As Baumann lays out in his piece, Guerrero is “a greater participant by some margin” than Alonso, however as a bat-only first baseman, Guerrero does face an identical threat that his providers might be price considerably much less on the open market than he expects.

On the flip aspect, Guerrero is greater than 4 years youthful than Alonso is now, and his relative youth ought to be extraordinarily helpful for him when he reaches free company forward of his age-27 season. Solely three of the 110 batters listed on our free agent tracker this offseason are youthful than 27, and 92 of these 110 hitters (83.6%) might be a minimum of 30 for the 2025 marketing campaign.

So let’s begin off the projectionating with a fictional assemble for instance the purpose: What if Guerrero have been 4 years older than his precise age? Right here is the longer term ZiPS projection for a free agent Guerrero, if he have been 31 years outdated for the 2026 season. I’m going with a impartial park for these projections.

ZiPS Projection – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4 Years Older)

12 months BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .282 .363 .478 571 85 161 31 0 27 90 68 94 3 134 3.3
2027 .276 .357 .462 544 78 150 29 0 24 82 64 90 3 128 2.7
2028 .270 .349 .446 514 71 139 27 0 21 75 59 86 2 122 2.0
2029 .264 .343 .428 474 63 125 24 0 18 66 54 82 2 116 1.5
2030 .256 .336 .410 429 54 110 21 0 15 57 49 77 2 109 0.9
2031 .253 .334 .399 371 46 94 18 0 12 47 42 67 1 105 0.6
2032 .254 .332 .400 307 37 78 15 0 10 38 34 56 1 105 0.5
2033 .250 .327 .385 272 31 68 13 0 8 32 29 50 1 100 0.2

With nonetheless a full season to go earlier than free company, ZiPS would solely be fascinated with providing this older model of Guerrero a contract price round $100 million. It additionally primarily could be fascinated with solely the primary 5 years. Now, let’s examine that to the precise projection.

ZiPS Projection – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

12 months BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .287 .371 .492 582 91 167 32 0 29 96 74 91 4 140 3.9
2027 .284 .370 .482 581 90 165 31 0 28 94 75 89 4 138 3.7
2028 .281 .368 .475 580 88 163 31 0 27 91 76 88 3 135 3.4
2029 .278 .366 .469 568 85 158 30 0 26 87 74 86 3 133 3.2
2030 .271 .358 .449 546 79 148 28 0 23 81 70 82 3 126 2.5
2031 .274 .360 .453 519 75 142 27 0 22 76 67 79 2 127 2.5
2032 .270 .356 .444 489 69 132 25 0 20 70 62 75 2 123 2.1
2033 .270 .356 .438 489 67 132 25 0 19 69 62 75 2 122 2.0
2034 .270 .356 .433 452 61 122 23 0 17 62 57 70 1 121 1.7

Given his up-and-down profession, ZiPS isn’t comfy sufficient to offer Guerrero what the Blue Jays supplied, however the system nonetheless would supply him a deal price almost 3 times as a lot as it will give the hypothetical 31-year-old Vladito. However simply to get a 3rd have a look at a Guerrero projection, let’s venture 2026 by way of 2034 with the belief that he places up the identical numbers in 2025 that he did final season.

ZiPS Projection – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Repeats 2024 in 2025)

12 months BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .314 .392 .533 585 94 184 39 1 29 100 72 90 2 157 5.2
2027 .310 .389 .522 584 93 181 38 1 28 98 73 88 2 153 4.9
2028 .304 .384 .509 583 91 177 37 1 27 96 74 87 2 149 4.5
2029 .300 .381 .499 583 89 175 36 1 26 93 74 86 2 145 4.2
2030 .293 .375 .485 583 87 171 35 1 25 90 74 86 1 140 3.8
2031 .286 .368 .464 584 84 167 35 0 23 87 73 87 1 132 3.2
2032 .284 .366 .460 584 83 166 34 0 23 85 73 88 1 131 3.1
2033 .282 .364 .453 556 77 157 32 0 21 80 69 84 1 128 2.7
2034 .282 .363 .447 557 75 157 32 0 20 78 68 85 1 126 2.5

With a repeat of his 2024 season, ZiPS is much more assured in Guerrero’s future, including sufficient to get to the $400 million mark over 9 years, with the remainder of his profession after that time tacking on one other $100 million. Whereas it’s not universally true, skilled athletes are typically fairly assured of their talents, and the extension negotiations so far look rather a lot like Vladito is expressing his perception in himself. The Blue Jays additionally clearly consider in him greater than ZiPS does – you don’t supply $340 million to gamers you don’t assume might be price it – however their supply additionally probablly had one thing to do with their worry of the results if they don’t signal him. So, what do the Jays seem like in a future with out Guerrero and Bo Bichette, who can be set without spending a dime company after this season?

To reply this query, I did an absurdly early 2026 ZiPS projected standings run, primarily based on no crew having any of their at present unsigned gamers for 2026.

ZiPS Projected AL East Standings – 2026

Workforce W L GB Pct Div% WC% Playoff% WS Win% eightieth twentieth
Boston Purple Sox 90 72 .556 34.2% 37.8% 72.0% 5.0% 97.4 83.2
New York Yankees 88 74 2 .543 25.0% 37.2% 62.2% 5.7% 95.6 80.7
Baltimore Orioles 88 74 2 .543 24.4% 37.4% 61.7% 5.7% 95.3 80.8
Tampa Bay Rays 86 76 4 .531 13.5% 31.6% 45.1% 2.1% 91.8 77.3
Toronto Blue Jays 78 84 12 .481 3.0% 13.9% 16.8% 0.9% 84.7 69.5

ZiPS already initiatives the 2025 Blue Jays because the weakest time within the AL East, however one which’s solely a sport or two behind the Rays and Purple Sox, and solely seven video games again within the division. However come 2026, ZiPS consider Toronto’s hand is way weaker, with ageing and free agent departures projected to severely diminish the crew’s manufacturing, particularly in comparison with its AL East rivals. Certain, if the Blue Jays resolve to not pay Guerrero, they’ll unlock almost $30 million to spend on a alternative, however after their a number of makes an attempt so as to add high-profile free brokers these final two offseasons, they know in addition to anybody that it takes greater than cash to signal superstars. Everybody who needs to spent $150,000 on a Porsche can get a Porsche, but when one other crew needs to signal Juan Soto for three-quarters of a billion bucks, and he chooses that membership as an alternative, he’s gone for good, with no comparable gamers obtainable. Guerrero represents the identical dilemma, although he gained’t make near Soto cash; only a few star offensive gamers are hitting free company over the subsequent few years. Listed here are the hitters who’re at present eligible to change into free brokers after both 2025 or 2026, ranked by projected OPS+ from 2026 to 2028.

High Free Brokers by ZiPS Projected OPS+

Of the highest 100 gamers by projected 2026-2028 OPS+, solely 11 might be free brokers (Happ is ranked 102nd), and that’s if the Rangers don’t choose up Pederson’s choice for 2027. Even taking into account Guerrero’s inconsistent profession, there doesn’t seem like anybody on the market you’d wish to pay as a lot as him. That’s why the ZiPS projected contracts for Guerrero are seemingly significantly beneath what he’ll really get.

So now the Blue Jays discover themselves at a crossroads. Personally, I feel their failure to signal Guerrero earlier than his deadline ought to be handled because the deadly blow to the group — not only for the subsequent few years, however for this one as nicely. Loads of issues would want to go proper for Toronto to show a Guerrero-less roster right into a critical AL East menace if he leaves as a free agent. Contemplating this, the Jays is likely to be higher off buying and selling Guerrero — they might nearly actually get a superb return package deal for him — to retool for an additional run two or three years from now, although that might all however formally take them out of competition for the 2025 marketing campaign. No matter occurs, as a result of the Blue Jays didn’t lengthen the face of their franchise, that is shaping as much as be their most consequential season because the mid-Nineteen Nineties.

Fitbit Charge 6 Fitness Tracker with Google apps, Heart Rate on Exercise Equipment, 6-Months Premium Membership Included, GPS, Health Tools and More, Obsidian/Black, One...

Fitbit Charge 6 Fitness Tracker with Google apps Brand Fitbit Model Name Fitbit Charge 6 Style Modern Color Black Case w/ Black Band Screen Size 1.04 Special Feature Sleep Monitor, Multisport Tracker, ECG, Activity Tracker, GPS,...

Easton | JEN SCHRO The Very Best 2.0 Fastpitch Softball Catcher’s Equipment | Box Set | NOCSAE Certified | Multiple Sizes/Colors

Easton | JEN SCHRO The Very Best 2.0 Color Black Brand Easton Material Blend Sport Softball Item Dimensions LxWxH 1 x 1 x 1 inches About this item THE VERY BEST BOX SET FROM EASTON...

COOLOMG Batter’s Baseball Elbow Guard for Adult Youth Protective Arm Pads with Adjustable Straps for Softball,Single

COOLOMG Batter's Baseball Elbow Guard Adjustable strap for a perfect fit: Our elbow guards come with double adjustable straps, allowing for a customized and...

Easton | ELITE Fastpitch Softball Glove | Morgan Stuart & Jen Schroeder Models | Multiple Styles

Easton | ELITE Fastpitch Softball Glove Size One Size Brand Easton Material Blend Hand Orientation Right Hand Throw Glove Type Athletic Color 33 Inch - 2-Piece Solid Web - White/Platinum Age Range (Description) Adult Lining Description Leather Year 2019 About this item FASTPITCH...

Easton | Catcher’s Wheeled Bag Series | Baseball & Softball | Multiple Styles

Easton | Catcher's Wheeled Bag Series | Baseball & Softball | Multiple Styles Product details Origin Imported About this item Rigid bottom and back panels with telescopic handle,...

SKLZ Reactive Catch Trainer for Improving Hand-Eye Coordination & Speed

SKLZ Reactive Catch Trainer for Improving Hand-Eye Coordination & Speed Brand SKLZ Material Polyurethane (PU) Color Blue/ Yellow/ Red Age Range (Description) Adult Item Weight 7.4 Ounces About this item ERGONOMIC - Three-pointed design features...

Fit Simplify Resistance Loop Exercise Bands with Instruction Guide and Carry Bag, Set of 5

Fit Simplify Resistance Loop Exercise Bands Brand Fit Simplify Material Natural Rubber Color Assorted Item Weight 0.1 Kilograms Sport Strength Training/Exercise And Fitness/Stretching About this item High End Exercise Bands. Our 12"³ By 2"³ Heavy...

DACORM Massage Gun – Percussion Muscle Massage Gun for Athletes, Handheld Deep Tissue Massager, Upgrade Quiet Portable Electric Sport Massager of Y8 Pro Max....

DACORM Massage Gun Use for Back Power Source Battery Powered Material Silicone Item Weight 3.8 Pounds Brand DACORM About this item Massage Gun, equipped with a 3300mAh Lithium battery, lasts from 8-15 hours massage use...

Mental Toughness For Young Athletes: Eight Proven 5-Minute Mindset Exercises For Kids And Teens Who Play Competitive Sports

Mental Toughness For Young Athletes: Eight Proven 5-Minute Mindset Exercises For Kids And Teens Who Play Competitive Sports Finally! There is A Mental Toughness Book...

Pocket Radar Smart Coach Speed Gun for Baseball, Hockey, Softball – Accurate Pitching & Sports Speed Measurement, Portable Baseball Radar Gun Compatible with Pocket...

Pocket Radar Smart Coach Speed Gun HIGH ACCURACY - The Pocket Radar gun excels in providing remarkably precise speed readings for baseball, establishing itself...

Jaeger J-Bands Resistance Bands for Baseball and Softball Pitchers. Baseball Pitching Trainer and Arm Trainer. Baseball Bands for Throwing. Baseball Training Equipment and Laminated...

Jaeger J-Bands Resistance Bands for Baseball and Softball Pitchers Brand J-Bands Color Black Age Range (Description) Teen; Adult Item Weight 0.55 Pounds Sport Baseball About this item Get more outs- This baseball throwing band offers...

Accubat Pro 20 Oz. / 26 Oz. Hitting Aid Baseball/Softball Fungo Racquet Bat

Accubat Pro 20 Oz. / 26 Oz. Size 20oz Sport Softball Brand Accubat Material Fiberglass Color Red About this item Anyone can teach fielding skills with confidence Perfect for the backyard or ballpark, the Coaches'...