We at the moment are deep into the season, as groups have performed greater than 60% of their video games. With the All-Star break over, this provides us time to go searching the NBA and consider how the Celtics’ contenders are doing.
We are going to rank the 5 most harmful groups for the championship based mostly on the Celtics’ strengths and weaknesses. For every contender, we’ll give a degree of confidence that the Celtics can beat this group in seven video games, from 0 to 100.
#1 – Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets won’t be the very best group out of those 5, however they’re the very best geared up to beat the champs. The Celtics haven’t crushed the Nuggets with Nikola Jokic enjoying since November 2022 – and he’s the primary purpose the Celtics may very well be scared to face Denver within the Finals. Jayson Tatum may agree with that.
This offseason, Tatum stated that he knew they might win the title as soon as the Nuggets misplaced to the Wolves – main us to suppose the Celtics are conscious that the Nuggets are a menace for a championship run. And the rationale for that’s the three-time MVP. Jokic is likely to be the final word weapon to dismantle the Celtics’ protection. The Celtics can’t match him up with Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian’s measurement and rim safety aren’t sufficient to sluggish him down.
Normally, the Celtics would assign Jayson Tatum or Jrue Vacation to the opponent’s middle. This strategy permits Porzingis to roam the paint, enjoying the protection function whereas JT or Jrue decelerate the opponent’s middle. Nonetheless, normally, the opponent’s middle doesn’t have the identical scoring means as Nikola Jokic. The Serbian large man is likely to be the very best scorer within the NBA. Amongst gamers with a famous person utilization price, no one comes near his effectivity (66% True Capturing).
Like the remainder of the league, the Celtics don’t have a solution for the Joker. What about the remainder of the group? Effectively, regardless of dropping an essential piece in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver discovered a approach to stay among the best groups within the league. They’re the very best group at attending to the rim, because of Jokic’s gravity and their chopping recreation. The Celtics’ off-ball protection has been problematic this season, and a sequence in opposition to the Denver Nuggets may very well be very difficult.
On the opposite aspect, the Denver Nuggets have weaknesses. Their two greatest weaknesses are transition protection and rim safety – which aren’t the Celtics’ greatest strengths. Joe Mazzulla’s group doesn’t put plenty of stress on the rim and isn’t producing plenty of transition alternatives. In fact, they may adapt, enhance their drive quantity, and attempt to power turnovers as a lot as potential.
Nonetheless, based mostly on the Denver Nuggets’ strengths and weaknesses, I really feel that they’re the Celtics’ greatest menace. If a sequence had been to start out in the present day, my degree of confidence within the Celtics in seven in opposition to the Nuggets is at 49%.
#2 – Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
The younger guys from Oklahoma are taking the league by storm with among the best common seasons of all time. The defensive efficiency from the Thunder this 12 months is unimaginable. They’ve the second-best relative defensive score of all time – beating the legendary 2008 Celtics, for instance. Their protection generates so many turnovers and forces opponents to take inefficient pictures.
With their aggressive strategy, they’ve discovered a approach to create turnovers each 5 possessions and are taking away drives and nook pictures. This was finished with Chet Holmgren lacking plenty of video games and Isaiah Hartenstein beginning the season on the bench. Regardless of lacking their defensive anchor, they maintained an elite degree. However with both Isaiah or Chet on the ground, they attain a completely completely different degree.
Whereas Chet can play an identical function to Porzingis in protection, Isaiah Hartenstein can change. With these two facilities, they’ll adapt to no matter offensive scheme their opponents are enjoying. This leads me to suppose they’re geared up to decelerate the Celtics’ offense. Of their first matchup earlier this season, Isaiah Hartenstein was capable of change onto Jayson Tatum, and he is without doubt one of the solely facilities on the planet who can sluggish him down with the ball in his arms.
But, whereas the Thunder’s protection is spectacular, they’ve an apparent offensive drawback: their lack of spacing. As most of us anticipated, I used to be satisfied they might transfer to commerce for Cam Johnson and add a taking pictures menace who can play protection to their roster – however they didn’t. With Lu Dort or Alex Caruso on the court docket, the Thunder are giving the Celtics a simple approach to maintain Porzingis close to the rim – this wouldn’t be potential with Cam Johnson. In the event that they go together with Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace or Aaron Wiggins, they’re giving the Celtics a simple goal on offense.
As a lot because the Thunder might decelerate the Celtics’ offense, I don’t purchase into their offensive firepower overwhelming the inexperienced military’s protection. As of proper now, my degree of confidence within the Celtics in seven in opposition to the Thunder is at 60%.
#3 – Cleveland Cavaliers
It wasn’t anticipated earlier than the season began, however the Cleveland Cavaliers seem like the most important menace to the Celtics within the East. The same old rivals through the Jayson & Jaylen period appear a step behind. The 76ers are off form, the Bucks are too common, and the Warmth had been pressured to commerce Jimmy Butler to California. Whereas the standard Celtics’ nemeses are declining, a brand new enemy rises: the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Celtics and Cavaliers met within the playoffs final 12 months, and earlier than Donovan Mitchell went down, the Cavaliers seemed like a authentic rival. Regardless of enjoying with out Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers had been capable of put stress on the Celtics because of Donovan Mitchell’s driving recreation and playmaking.
As CelticsBlog’s Mike Shearer famous, the Celtics wrestle to comprise fast guards who can pull up and drive. With Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, the Cavs have two gamers with such abilities.
Nonetheless, the Cavaliers generally lack spacing once they play with their two large males, making it simpler to comprise their backcourt. They often go to a single-big lineup, and once they do, Joe Mazzulla counters with a double-big lineup and wins the possession battle. With Kornet and Horford, for instance, the Celtics can dominate on the boards when the Cavaliers determine to go small. When the Cavaliers go large, the Celtics can stretch the ground as a lot as potential with Porzingis.
The Celtics are geared up to adapt based mostly on the Cavaliers’ recreation plan, even with De’Andre Hunter’s arrival. Sure, the previous Hawk brings extra depth on the wing, however this isn’t the place the Cavaliers wrestle in opposition to the Celtics. Whereas going through Boston, Cleveland struggled due to their backcourt protection. The Celtics love to choose a goal and assault Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland.
Due to that backcourt concern, my degree of confidence within the Celtics in seven in opposition to the Cavaliers is at 66%.
#4 – Los Angeles Clippers
Sure, the Clippers. The one purpose they aren’t increased is that I nonetheless have a tough time trusting Kawhi Leonard’s physique. Nonetheless, they really feel like one of many greatest threats to the Celtics—if they’ll keep wholesome. Regardless of dropping Paul George, the Clippers remained among the best groups within the West. Like in Moneyball, they changed PG13 within the mixture with Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and by giving extra duties to Norman Powell.
James Harden additionally turned again the clock and elevated his quantity following Paul George’s departure. He has misplaced a few of his burst, however his passing and playmaking stay elite. In the course of all that, Clippers followers additionally witnessed Ivica Zubac’s All-Protection marketing campaign. The large man has been probably the most—if not essentially the most—essential gamers for the Clippers. With out him, the protection collapses, and the offense struggles to perform with out his screens and Harden’s playmaking.
That’s the reason they had been aggressive on the commerce market this winter. They wanted a backup for Zubac to maintain enjoying drop protection—however with Ben Simmons, they’ll additionally remodel right into a switch-everything monster. Add to that Bogdan Bogdanovic’s playmaking off the bench, and you’ve got one of many deepest groups within the West. They will play numerous defensive and offensive types whereas having two of the very best isolation gamers within the league.
Within the playoffs, the flexibility to play two completely different types at a excessive degree whereas having elite isolation scorers is without doubt one of the greatest belongings a group can have. Nonetheless, they are going to face spacing points, and the isolation-heavy strategy won’t work on a regular basis. Additionally, the deeper they go within the playoffs, the better it is going to be for opponents to take advantage of their growing old legs. Due to that, my degree of confidence within the Celtics beating the Clippers in seven is at 70%.
#5 – New York Knicks
Whereas all of the groups talked about earlier than may need spacing points, that gained’t be the case with the New York Knicks. Round Karl-Anthony Cities, Tom Thibodeau has constructed a powerful offense with well-timed cuts and numerous pick-and-roll actions. Jalen Brunson is unstoppable one-on-one, and his unimaginable scoring means forces assist, which creates even higher spacing.
Nonetheless, this high-powered offense comes at a price—a defensive one. With KAT at middle, the Knicks are unable to comprise the Celtics’ offense. They hope Mitchell Robinson shall be their savior on that finish, however I doubt he shall be again and wholesome sufficient to compensate for his or her defensive struggles. Furthermore, in the event that they play Robinson, their spacing disappears.
Regardless of an elite offense, the Knicks’ defensive shortcomings make me 99% assured the Celtics would beat them in seven.
The opposite potential threats would have been Dallas with Luka Dončić or the Warriors if that they had higher spacing round Jimmy and Curry.
What about you? Who do you suppose might beat the Celtics in seven as of proper now?
